特征价格指数研究
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摘要
从理论上讲，要想准确计算价格指数，关键在于保证样本的同质性，使计算出的价格指数只反映由于供求关系变化引起的价格变化，即所谓的“纯价格变化”。而由于商品质量变化引起的价格变化属于核算中物量变化的范围，不应该在价格指数中反映，统计学家称这种在构建价格指数过程中剔除商品质量变化的过程为质量调整。特征价格指数就是为解决质量调整问题而提出的一种统计方法，它用数学手段将质量变化程度加以量化，避免了由于主观原因引起的测量偏差。近10年来，特征价格指数法被认为是最有发展前途的质量调整方法，受到世界各国的重视。应当指出特征价格指数方法目前尚处于发展之中，方法理论体系尚不完善，许多问题仍有待解决。虽然这一方法尚未成为价格调整的标准，但是利用一些较成熟的特征价格指数研究成果，计算不同商品和服务的特征价格指数已成为西方经济发达国家统计部门的一项重要实践工作。
本文力图对已有特征价格指数理论和方法做出系统分析的基础上，进一步对特征价格指数的编制方法和应用研究有所创新与贡献。本文开展了以下主要研究：
1．特征价格理论方面。对Lancaster的“特征消费理论”和Rosen的“特征价格均衡模型”进行系统的梳理，为进一步讨论和研究特征价格指数编制方法奠定了良好的理论基础。
2、特征价格函数形式和变量选择方面。函数形式和变量选择是编制特征价格指数的最基础工作，为此本文主要考察了Box-Cox变换和逐步回归分析法，以作为特征价格函数形式的确定及典型特征变量选择的基本工具。
3、特征价格指数的统计理论方面。论文以特征价格理论为基础，阐述了当前特征价格指数的基本统计思想，建立了特征价格指数一般理论分析框架，在这一框架下给出了特征价格指数的定义和分类。讨论了特征价格指数的估计问题，对产品质量变化进行定量分析，并对传统质量调整方法与特征价格质量调整方法进行比较研究。
4、特征价格指数编制方法研究方面。对截面数据特征价格指数法、合并数据特征价格指数法、特征价格模拟法和特征价格质量调整法等主要四种特征价格指数编制方法进行了研究，并对这四种方法相互之间及其与传统质量调整法的关系进行了比较分析，为后面的实证研究打下良好的基础。
5、在实证方面。本文搜集了中国大学本专科教材数据、中国汽车数据、俄罗斯莫斯科市住房数据，并引用美国的计算机数据及计算机硬盘数据，分别编制了中国教材特征价格指数、中国汽车价格指数、饿罗斯莫斯科市住房价格指数、美国的计算机价格指数和计算机硬盘价格指数等五种特征价格指数，弥补了我国特征价格指数实证研究方面的不足。
通过上述几方面的工作，本文的研究和结论具有如下几方面创新：
1、以特征价格理论为基础，对当前该领域中的理论和实证研究成果进行了系统性的梳理，构建了较为完整的“纯价格变化”特征价格指数的理论框架。本研究在阐述特征价格函数的经济统计思想的基础上，明确提出了特征价格指数是建立在特征价格函数基础上的价格指数，属于经济指数的范畴。并按该定义，根据特征价格指数使用特征价格函数的材料不同和使用的数据结构不同，给出了特征价格指数的分类方法和不同分类的定义。
2、根据特征价格指数使用特征价格函数的材料不同和使用的数据结构不同，划分出四种主要的特征价格指数编制方法，即截面数据特征价格指数法、合并数据特征价格指数法、特征价格模拟法和特征价格质量调整法．针对这四种方法，就各种指数公式的特点和适用性加以比较讨论，找出适于不同数据资料的特征价格指数公式。
3、根据特征价格指数理论，提出经济统计意义上的“标准特征商品”概念。“标准特征商品”是指在编制异质商品价格指数时，从异质商品的众多特征中选择”典型特征”作为特定时间的商品特征的代表。因此，商品特征价格指数是测定在不同时期购买相同品质或特征的“标准特征商品”支付费用变动程度的相对数。“标准特征商品”描述了特定时间的商品特征及其变动对商品价格的影响力，编制商品特征价格指数实际是对异质商品价格进行标准化的过程。
4、编制了五种异质商品的特征价格指数，弥补了我国特征价格指数实证研究方面的不足，丰富了我国特征价格指数的内容，
To compute price index precisely, it is essential theoretically to ensure the homogeneity of goods so as to make the worked-out price index indicate the only change of price due to the changes of supply and demand—the so called 'pure price change'. It is nature that the change of price induced by quality movement being estimated in the sense of quantity change; therefore, it should not be reflected in the price index. The process of deleting the price change induced by quality change from price index being worked out is called quality adjustment by statistics. Hedonic price index is a new systematic statistic approach aimed at solving this quality adjustment problem. By employing means of mathematical instruments, this approach makes it possible to quantify the levels of quality changes so as to avoid the bias induced by the subjective judgment in measuring the quality changes. In the near decade, hedonic price index approach has been thought as a prospected method to handle quality adjustment problems, and has gained much focus worldwide. The estimation of hedonic price index for different kinds of goods and services have become a general practice for many statistics agencies in developed countries.Based on a systematic study on the underlying theory and methods for hedonic price index estimation, this dissertation attempts to make some contributions in improving the hedonic price index estimation methods, and conduct several empirical researches by employing these methods to compute hedonic price index for some goods in real world. Therefore, the main works of this dissertation are as follow.1. Making a systematic research on Lancaster's 'hedonic consume theory' and Rosen's hedonic price equilibrium model, so as to lay down a theoretic foundation for further research on hedonic price index estimation methods;2. Making detailed discussions on Box-Cox transformation and stepwise regression analytical method. They will be used as the fundamental mathematical instruments for identifying hedonic function form in this research.3. Based on hedonic price index theories, exploring the fundamental statistical implications embodied in the current practical hedonic price index. A general framework for classifying hedonic price index is proposed, and definitions for different hedonic price indexes against the proposed classification framework are given out. This paper also discusses the estimation methods to conduct quality adjustment in computing hedonic price for considered product. And make a comparison between the traditional quality adjustment methods and hedonic quality adjustment.4. Outlines four basic approaches for constructing hedonic price index, and conducts a systematical comparison study on the relationships among the four approaches and the traditional quality adjustment methods. The results of the comparison study can be used as a theoretical background for the following empirical research.5. To test the validation of above proposed hedonic price index methodologies, several empirical researches have been conducted and five hedonic price indexes have been estimated based on the data collected from Chinese college text book price, Chinese automobile price, Moscow (Russia) housing price, US computer price and hard-disk price. The empirical results indicate that the use of the proposed hedonic price index methodologies is much helpful in the practical estimation of Chinese price index.From above works, this dissertation attempts to make contributions both to the theoretic and empirical researches on hedonic price index in the following aspects.1. Centering around hedonic price theories, through a thoroughly reviewing on the current results from both theoretic and empirical researches on hedonic price index, this paper outlines a theoretic framework for so called pure-price-change-based hedonic price index. Based on the discussion of the mathematical and statistic implication of hedonic price function, this paper defines hedonic price index definitely, it is a price index stemmed from the underlying hedonic price function, and it is a concept of economic meaning, not just of statistics meaning. By this interpretation and according to the function form and data structure used in the estimation of hedonic price index, a classification framework for hedonic price index and their corresponding definition are suggested.2. As to the aspects of constructing methods for hedonic price index, based on the comparison of the current methods, this paper classifies them into four varieties, pooling data index, cross section index, hedonic-price-function-based modeling index and hedonic-price-function-based quality adjustment index. According to their comparative characteristics of each kinds of method, different approaches for collecting data source in the process of constructing price index are suggested.3. From the viewpoint of economics and statistics and based on the hedonic price index theory, a concept of standard hedonic goods is defined. Standard hedonic goods is a kind of conceptual goods that consists of the typical characteristics of the heterogeneous goods in consideration when constructing hedonic price index for heterogeneous goods. Therefore, hedonic price index for specific goods is a measurement for measuring the difference necessary to pay for the same quality or characteristics of goods at different time periods. The process of computing hedonic price index can be interpreted as a process of standardizing the price of heterogeneous goods.4. As mentioned above, this paper also makes efforts in empirical researches. The estimated five empirical hedonic price indexes will be of help in improving Chinese price index.
本文力图对已有特征价格指数理论和方法做出系统分析的基础上，进一步对特征价格指数的编制方法和应用研究有所创新与贡献。本文开展了以下主要研究：
1．特征价格理论方面。对Lancaster的“特征消费理论”和Rosen的“特征价格均衡模型”进行系统的梳理，为进一步讨论和研究特征价格指数编制方法奠定了良好的理论基础。
2、特征价格函数形式和变量选择方面。函数形式和变量选择是编制特征价格指数的最基础工作，为此本文主要考察了Box-Cox变换和逐步回归分析法，以作为特征价格函数形式的确定及典型特征变量选择的基本工具。
3、特征价格指数的统计理论方面。论文以特征价格理论为基础，阐述了当前特征价格指数的基本统计思想，建立了特征价格指数一般理论分析框架，在这一框架下给出了特征价格指数的定义和分类。讨论了特征价格指数的估计问题，对产品质量变化进行定量分析，并对传统质量调整方法与特征价格质量调整方法进行比较研究。
4、特征价格指数编制方法研究方面。对截面数据特征价格指数法、合并数据特征价格指数法、特征价格模拟法和特征价格质量调整法等主要四种特征价格指数编制方法进行了研究，并对这四种方法相互之间及其与传统质量调整法的关系进行了比较分析，为后面的实证研究打下良好的基础。
5、在实证方面。本文搜集了中国大学本专科教材数据、中国汽车数据、俄罗斯莫斯科市住房数据，并引用美国的计算机数据及计算机硬盘数据，分别编制了中国教材特征价格指数、中国汽车价格指数、饿罗斯莫斯科市住房价格指数、美国的计算机价格指数和计算机硬盘价格指数等五种特征价格指数，弥补了我国特征价格指数实证研究方面的不足。
通过上述几方面的工作，本文的研究和结论具有如下几方面创新：
1、以特征价格理论为基础，对当前该领域中的理论和实证研究成果进行了系统性的梳理，构建了较为完整的“纯价格变化”特征价格指数的理论框架。本研究在阐述特征价格函数的经济统计思想的基础上，明确提出了特征价格指数是建立在特征价格函数基础上的价格指数，属于经济指数的范畴。并按该定义，根据特征价格指数使用特征价格函数的材料不同和使用的数据结构不同，给出了特征价格指数的分类方法和不同分类的定义。
2、根据特征价格指数使用特征价格函数的材料不同和使用的数据结构不同，划分出四种主要的特征价格指数编制方法，即截面数据特征价格指数法、合并数据特征价格指数法、特征价格模拟法和特征价格质量调整法．针对这四种方法，就各种指数公式的特点和适用性加以比较讨论，找出适于不同数据资料的特征价格指数公式。
3、根据特征价格指数理论，提出经济统计意义上的“标准特征商品”概念。“标准特征商品”是指在编制异质商品价格指数时，从异质商品的众多特征中选择”典型特征”作为特定时间的商品特征的代表。因此，商品特征价格指数是测定在不同时期购买相同品质或特征的“标准特征商品”支付费用变动程度的相对数。“标准特征商品”描述了特定时间的商品特征及其变动对商品价格的影响力，编制商品特征价格指数实际是对异质商品价格进行标准化的过程。
4、编制了五种异质商品的特征价格指数，弥补了我国特征价格指数实证研究方面的不足，丰富了我国特征价格指数的内容，
To compute price index precisely, it is essential theoretically to ensure the homogeneity of goods so as to make the worked-out price index indicate the only change of price due to the changes of supply and demand—the so called 'pure price change'. It is nature that the change of price induced by quality movement being estimated in the sense of quantity change; therefore, it should not be reflected in the price index. The process of deleting the price change induced by quality change from price index being worked out is called quality adjustment by statistics. Hedonic price index is a new systematic statistic approach aimed at solving this quality adjustment problem. By employing means of mathematical instruments, this approach makes it possible to quantify the levels of quality changes so as to avoid the bias induced by the subjective judgment in measuring the quality changes. In the near decade, hedonic price index approach has been thought as a prospected method to handle quality adjustment problems, and has gained much focus worldwide. The estimation of hedonic price index for different kinds of goods and services have become a general practice for many statistics agencies in developed countries.Based on a systematic study on the underlying theory and methods for hedonic price index estimation, this dissertation attempts to make some contributions in improving the hedonic price index estimation methods, and conduct several empirical researches by employing these methods to compute hedonic price index for some goods in real world. Therefore, the main works of this dissertation are as follow.1. Making a systematic research on Lancaster's 'hedonic consume theory' and Rosen's hedonic price equilibrium model, so as to lay down a theoretic foundation for further research on hedonic price index estimation methods;2. Making detailed discussions on Box-Cox transformation and stepwise regression analytical method. They will be used as the fundamental mathematical instruments for identifying hedonic function form in this research.3. Based on hedonic price index theories, exploring the fundamental statistical implications embodied in the current practical hedonic price index. A general framework for classifying hedonic price index is proposed, and definitions for different hedonic price indexes against the proposed classification framework are given out. This paper also discusses the estimation methods to conduct quality adjustment in computing hedonic price for considered product. And make a comparison between the traditional quality adjustment methods and hedonic quality adjustment.4. Outlines four basic approaches for constructing hedonic price index, and conducts a systematical comparison study on the relationships among the four approaches and the traditional quality adjustment methods. The results of the comparison study can be used as a theoretical background for the following empirical research.5. To test the validation of above proposed hedonic price index methodologies, several empirical researches have been conducted and five hedonic price indexes have been estimated based on the data collected from Chinese college text book price, Chinese automobile price, Moscow (Russia) housing price, US computer price and hard-disk price. The empirical results indicate that the use of the proposed hedonic price index methodologies is much helpful in the practical estimation of Chinese price index.From above works, this dissertation attempts to make contributions both to the theoretic and empirical researches on hedonic price index in the following aspects.1. Centering around hedonic price theories, through a thoroughly reviewing on the current results from both theoretic and empirical researches on hedonic price index, this paper outlines a theoretic framework for so called pure-price-change-based hedonic price index. Based on the discussion of the mathematical and statistic implication of hedonic price function, this paper defines hedonic price index definitely, it is a price index stemmed from the underlying hedonic price function, and it is a concept of economic meaning, not just of statistics meaning. By this interpretation and according to the function form and data structure used in the estimation of hedonic price index, a classification framework for hedonic price index and their corresponding definition are suggested.2. As to the aspects of constructing methods for hedonic price index, based on the comparison of the current methods, this paper classifies them into four varieties, pooling data index, cross section index, hedonic-price-function-based modeling index and hedonic-price-function-based quality adjustment index. According to their comparative characteristics of each kinds of method, different approaches for collecting data source in the process of constructing price index are suggested.3. From the viewpoint of economics and statistics and based on the hedonic price index theory, a concept of standard hedonic goods is defined. Standard hedonic goods is a kind of conceptual goods that consists of the typical characteristics of the heterogeneous goods in consideration when constructing hedonic price index for heterogeneous goods. Therefore, hedonic price index for specific goods is a measurement for measuring the difference necessary to pay for the same quality or characteristics of goods at different time periods. The process of computing hedonic price index can be interpreted as a process of standardizing the price of heterogeneous goods.4. As mentioned above, this paper also makes efforts in empirical researches. The estimated five empirical hedonic price indexes will be of help in improving Chinese price index.
引文
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