三峡库区通航环境安全评价和研究
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摘要
长江是我国第一大河流,长江经济带是我国经济最发达、经济增长速度最快的地区之一。据统计,长江货运量已超过了美国的密西西比河和欧洲的莱茵河,成为世界上运输最繁忙、运量最大的内河通航河流。随着三峡枢纽的建设,三峡库区成为了世人关注的焦点。
三峡的成库带来了历史机遇——航道改善,运力增加,成本降低,长江黄金水道优势日益凸现。然而,库区通航环境的改善在为打造黄金水道、发展长江经济和建设重庆长江上游航运中心奠定基础的同时,也给库区通航安全带来了各种新的隐患：滑坡险情时常发生；防污压力骤增；库区大雾、大风等恶劣天气出现新的特点；三峡库区水位消落期、回水变动区给通航环境带来新的变化。各种复杂因素的交织,制约着重庆长江上游航运中心的建设和长江“黄金水道”效能的发挥。因此,进行三峡库区水域通航环境安全度的评价研究,对建设重庆长江上游航运中心和畅通三峡库区黄金水道具有十分现实的意义。
本文从安全系统工程的角度出发,以三峡库区水域通航环境的安全评价作为论文研究的主题。利用定性和定量相结合的系统分析方法,以库区通航环境的安全度为评价对象,在综合分析影响通航安全的诸多因素的基础上,参考大量文献,结合实际和其他学者的相关成果确定了安全评价因素体系；利用模糊综合评价的定量评价方法,根据国内外相关资料制定了各评价因素的指标化评价标准；通过采用图式法中的广义梯形函数,并经过不断修正,以确定各因素的隶属度函数；利用简化二元有序比较法结合专家问卷调查资料计算出各个因素的权重值,模糊算子采用了加权平均法。最后在以上的基础上,建立了模糊综合评价数学模型。
笔者将所建立模型和系统应用到三峡库区航道上,输出的结果比较符合实际情况。针对评价结果笔者还提出了改善三峡库区通航环境安全状况的建议与措施。该项研究可为海事和航道部门改善三峡库区通航环境提供了科学的决策依据和参考意见,同时该评价模型还可为开展其他内河水域通航环境的安全评价研究工作提供借鉴和参考,具有一定的实用价值。
The Yangtze River is the biggest river in China. Yangtze River Economic Belt is one of the most economically developed and the fastest economic growth zone of the areas in China. According to statistics, the capacity of cargo on the Yangtze River has outpaced the Mississippi River in United States of America and the Rhine in Europe, indicating the Yangtze River has become the busiest and largest navigable inland traffic river all over the world.. With the construction of the Three Gorges Project, The reservoir draws worldwide attention.
The construction of Three Gorges Project bringing historic opportunities improving the channel quality, increasing it's capacity, cost reduction, the advantage of the golden waterway becoming more and more apparent. According to the research, the construction of the shipping center in Yangtze River and unblocked the golden waterway in the reservoir in the upper reaches of Chongqing proves to be of great significance. However, as the improvement of the navigation system laying the foundation of creating golden waterway, developing the Yangtze River economic and the constructing shipping center in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in Chongqing, it also brought new security troubles to the safety of navigation in the area:Frequent occurrence of landslide in potential; the pressure of anti-fouling surging rapidly.The inclement weather conditions in the reservoir area like heavy fogs and high winds emerging new features. The ebbing period of the Three Gorges reservoir area and the changing backwater areas brought new problems for navigation. The intertwined complicated factors restrict the construction of the shipping center in upper reaches of Yangtze River in Chongqing and the function of the golden waterway. Therefore, it's has great practical significance to construction of the upper shipping center of the Yangtze River and unblock Golden waterway in the Three Gorges reservoir area with doing the evaluation of safety degree of waterways navigable waters environment in Three Gorges reservoir area.
This paper sets out from the angle of safety system engineering, and it's subject of the research is the safety assessment about navigable environment in channel of the Three Gorges reservoir area. the paper applies a system analysis method, which contains quantitative and qualitative methods. It takes the safety of environment in channel of the Three Gorges reservoir area as the objects. Basing on comprehensive analysis of internal and natural environmental influencing factors that affect the ship safety of navigation, referring to many references, combining with the practical things and the correlated findings of other scholars, the author has established a safety assessment system with factors. Then, the author has used the quantitative evaluation method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, in accordance with investigation, statistics and analysis in relevant information and data of domestic and international safety evaluation, has developed the criteria of indicators for the evaluation.The generalized trapezoidal function in fuzzy mathematics has been applied and continuously amended to determine the factors of membership function. In addition, by the means of a predigesting sequential pair comparison, the author has tended to determine the weights of factors, calculated every weight value and adopted algorithm of pulse weights mean on the fuzzy arithmetic operators. On the base of above knowledge, the author has set up a mathematical model on fuzzy comprehensive assessment.
The model has been applied in Channel of the Three Gorges reservoir area, The result of assessment match actual condition. Aiming at the result, the author put forward some suggestions and measures about improving the safety condition of the navigation environment of the Three Gorges reservoir area. With the help of the result in the research, Marine and waterway section can make some scientific decision of improving the environment and management of the Three Gorges reservoir area. At the same time, we can get some useful reference from the model when we undertake safety assessment research for the water navigation of other inland river channels, So it certainly has some certain practical value.
三峡的成库带来了历史机遇——航道改善,运力增加,成本降低,长江黄金水道优势日益凸现。然而,库区通航环境的改善在为打造黄金水道、发展长江经济和建设重庆长江上游航运中心奠定基础的同时,也给库区通航安全带来了各种新的隐患：滑坡险情时常发生；防污压力骤增；库区大雾、大风等恶劣天气出现新的特点；三峡库区水位消落期、回水变动区给通航环境带来新的变化。各种复杂因素的交织,制约着重庆长江上游航运中心的建设和长江“黄金水道”效能的发挥。因此,进行三峡库区水域通航环境安全度的评价研究,对建设重庆长江上游航运中心和畅通三峡库区黄金水道具有十分现实的意义。
本文从安全系统工程的角度出发,以三峡库区水域通航环境的安全评价作为论文研究的主题。利用定性和定量相结合的系统分析方法,以库区通航环境的安全度为评价对象,在综合分析影响通航安全的诸多因素的基础上,参考大量文献,结合实际和其他学者的相关成果确定了安全评价因素体系；利用模糊综合评价的定量评价方法,根据国内外相关资料制定了各评价因素的指标化评价标准；通过采用图式法中的广义梯形函数,并经过不断修正,以确定各因素的隶属度函数；利用简化二元有序比较法结合专家问卷调查资料计算出各个因素的权重值,模糊算子采用了加权平均法。最后在以上的基础上,建立了模糊综合评价数学模型。
笔者将所建立模型和系统应用到三峡库区航道上,输出的结果比较符合实际情况。针对评价结果笔者还提出了改善三峡库区通航环境安全状况的建议与措施。该项研究可为海事和航道部门改善三峡库区通航环境提供了科学的决策依据和参考意见,同时该评价模型还可为开展其他内河水域通航环境的安全评价研究工作提供借鉴和参考,具有一定的实用价值。
The Yangtze River is the biggest river in China. Yangtze River Economic Belt is one of the most economically developed and the fastest economic growth zone of the areas in China. According to statistics, the capacity of cargo on the Yangtze River has outpaced the Mississippi River in United States of America and the Rhine in Europe, indicating the Yangtze River has become the busiest and largest navigable inland traffic river all over the world.. With the construction of the Three Gorges Project, The reservoir draws worldwide attention.
The construction of Three Gorges Project bringing historic opportunities improving the channel quality, increasing it's capacity, cost reduction, the advantage of the golden waterway becoming more and more apparent. According to the research, the construction of the shipping center in Yangtze River and unblocked the golden waterway in the reservoir in the upper reaches of Chongqing proves to be of great significance. However, as the improvement of the navigation system laying the foundation of creating golden waterway, developing the Yangtze River economic and the constructing shipping center in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in Chongqing, it also brought new security troubles to the safety of navigation in the area:Frequent occurrence of landslide in potential; the pressure of anti-fouling surging rapidly.The inclement weather conditions in the reservoir area like heavy fogs and high winds emerging new features. The ebbing period of the Three Gorges reservoir area and the changing backwater areas brought new problems for navigation. The intertwined complicated factors restrict the construction of the shipping center in upper reaches of Yangtze River in Chongqing and the function of the golden waterway. Therefore, it's has great practical significance to construction of the upper shipping center of the Yangtze River and unblock Golden waterway in the Three Gorges reservoir area with doing the evaluation of safety degree of waterways navigable waters environment in Three Gorges reservoir area.
This paper sets out from the angle of safety system engineering, and it's subject of the research is the safety assessment about navigable environment in channel of the Three Gorges reservoir area. the paper applies a system analysis method, which contains quantitative and qualitative methods. It takes the safety of environment in channel of the Three Gorges reservoir area as the objects. Basing on comprehensive analysis of internal and natural environmental influencing factors that affect the ship safety of navigation, referring to many references, combining with the practical things and the correlated findings of other scholars, the author has established a safety assessment system with factors. Then, the author has used the quantitative evaluation method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, in accordance with investigation, statistics and analysis in relevant information and data of domestic and international safety evaluation, has developed the criteria of indicators for the evaluation.The generalized trapezoidal function in fuzzy mathematics has been applied and continuously amended to determine the factors of membership function. In addition, by the means of a predigesting sequential pair comparison, the author has tended to determine the weights of factors, calculated every weight value and adopted algorithm of pulse weights mean on the fuzzy arithmetic operators. On the base of above knowledge, the author has set up a mathematical model on fuzzy comprehensive assessment.
The model has been applied in Channel of the Three Gorges reservoir area, The result of assessment match actual condition. Aiming at the result, the author put forward some suggestions and measures about improving the safety condition of the navigation environment of the Three Gorges reservoir area. With the help of the result in the research, Marine and waterway section can make some scientific decision of improving the environment and management of the Three Gorges reservoir area. At the same time, we can get some useful reference from the model when we undertake safety assessment research for the water navigation of other inland river channels, So it certainly has some certain practical value.
引文
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[5]井上三欣,世良亘等.海上交通安全评价技术准则的研究——Ⅰ.日本航海学会论文集98号,东京：日本航海学会,1995：255-234.
[6]IMO MSC 68/W13 ANNEXZ "Interim Guidelines for the Application of Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) to the IMO Rule -Making Process"
[7]吴兆麟,朱军.海上交通工程.大连：大连海事大学出版社,2004：160-200,199-208,19-24.214-218.
[8]马会.港口水域操船环境危险度的综合评价：(硕士学位论文).大连：大连海事大学,1998.
[9]赵仁余.水域交通危险度的模糊综合评判法.中国航海,1997(2)：40-45.
[10]郑中义.港口船舶航行环境危险度的灰色评估数学模型.见：吴兆麟著.海上避碰与交通安全研究.大连：大连海事大学出版社,2001：507.
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