山东省国内上市公司财务困境预警研究
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摘要
随着全球经济的发展,传统财务理论中的持续经营假设逐渐松动,企业面临的不确定性日益加强,各类市场主体对企业的财务状况的关注随之加强,因而对财务预警的需求也日趋迫切。山东省的国内上市公司有其独特的地域特征(经济、文化等)和其经营的外部环境,因此,本文对1998-2008年被实施ST的山东省国内上市公司财务困境进行预警研究,对于关注山东省国内上市公司板块的各类需求主体具有重要的现实意义以及发展意义。
在写作安排上,全文的研究思路主要包括六个部分。其中,第一部分为引言,总括性地概述本文的研究背景和意义,研究的创新,研究的方法和路线以及概括了文章的内容结构;第二部分首先剖析现有的财务困境预警研究方法,然后总结了国内外关于公司财务困境模型的研究,并详尽介绍了国内相关实证研究所取得的成果,在此基础上明确本文写作的研究思路和方法。第三部分,是本文进行实证研究的基础,这一部分的主要内容是对1998-2008年山东省被实施ST的国内上市公司的风险概况和产生风险的原因进行了深入的分析,分析结果表明市场竞争激烈、经营环境恶化,法人治理结构不完善、对外担保承担损失等问题是导致山东省国内上市公司陷入财务困境的主要原因。第四部分是实证研究设计,这也是本文的核心部分,阐释模型对财务困境的界定,样本数据的选取方法,预警变量的选取与其含义,然后对预警变量指标进行分析及筛选,通过变量统计描述、均值差异检验、主成分分析方法三种方法进行分析及筛选。第五部分是本文的主体部分,就是建立山东省国内上市公司财务困境预警的实证模型,采用费歇尔(Fisher)判别分析和Logit分析两种方法进行建模,并在最后对建立的两种实证模型进行比较分析。第六部分为结论和政策建议,总结本文研究得到的主要研究结论,提出相关政策建议,阐明本文研究中的创新之处,并对本文的不足与后续的发展研究进行探讨。
With the development of the global economy, continuity assumption in tradition financial affairs theory is tottered, uncertainty that enterprises facing with has gradually been enhanced, so more and more attention have been paid on the financial condition of the enterprises by different market entities, and the great demand on the financial pre-warning seems to be more and more urgent. The domestic listed companies in Shandong Province has its unique geographical characteristics (economic, cultural, etc.) and its external operating environment, as a result, the financial distress pre-warning research for the Shandong ST domestic listed companies from 1998 to 2008 has relevance and theoretical significance.
On writing arrangement, the thesis divides into six parts mainly. The first part is the introduction, which generally introduces the research background, research purpose and significance of this thesis, the research innovations, the research methods and paths, and then summarizes contents and construction of the thesis. The second part analyses the research ways of the financial distress pre-warning firstly, and then summarizes the financial distress pre-warning research models both home and abroad, especially generalize the domestic research in detail. On this basis, we clear the research methods and ways of our thesis. The third part is the basis of the empirical research. The main content of this part is that go deep into analyze the risks overview of special treatment domestic listed enterprises in Shandong Province and the reasons of why implement special treatment to the listed enterprises from 1998 to 2008. The result of the analysis indicates the fierce market competitions, the deteriorate operating environment, imperfect corporate governance structure, external security to bear the loss etc. are the main reasons of listed enterprises in Shandong province get caught into the financial distress. The four parts is the design of empirical research, which is the core part in the thesis, includes defining the financial Distress, to choose sample data, to choose and define the financial distress pre-warning variables. We analyze and choose the financial distress pre-warning indicators variables through descriptive statistics, mean equality test and the principal component analysis. The fifth part is the subject of our thesis. We will build the model the financial distress pre-warning of listed enterprises in Shandong province, and use the fisher analysis and Logit analysis to build models, and then compare and analyze the two empirical models. The sixth part is conclusion and suggestions, which sums up the main results of the whole research and put forward some suggestions, clarifies the innovative points, and makes discussions on the limits and future study directions of the research.
在写作安排上,全文的研究思路主要包括六个部分。其中,第一部分为引言,总括性地概述本文的研究背景和意义,研究的创新,研究的方法和路线以及概括了文章的内容结构;第二部分首先剖析现有的财务困境预警研究方法,然后总结了国内外关于公司财务困境模型的研究,并详尽介绍了国内相关实证研究所取得的成果,在此基础上明确本文写作的研究思路和方法。第三部分,是本文进行实证研究的基础,这一部分的主要内容是对1998-2008年山东省被实施ST的国内上市公司的风险概况和产生风险的原因进行了深入的分析,分析结果表明市场竞争激烈、经营环境恶化,法人治理结构不完善、对外担保承担损失等问题是导致山东省国内上市公司陷入财务困境的主要原因。第四部分是实证研究设计,这也是本文的核心部分,阐释模型对财务困境的界定,样本数据的选取方法,预警变量的选取与其含义,然后对预警变量指标进行分析及筛选,通过变量统计描述、均值差异检验、主成分分析方法三种方法进行分析及筛选。第五部分是本文的主体部分,就是建立山东省国内上市公司财务困境预警的实证模型,采用费歇尔(Fisher)判别分析和Logit分析两种方法进行建模,并在最后对建立的两种实证模型进行比较分析。第六部分为结论和政策建议,总结本文研究得到的主要研究结论,提出相关政策建议,阐明本文研究中的创新之处,并对本文的不足与后续的发展研究进行探讨。
With the development of the global economy, continuity assumption in tradition financial affairs theory is tottered, uncertainty that enterprises facing with has gradually been enhanced, so more and more attention have been paid on the financial condition of the enterprises by different market entities, and the great demand on the financial pre-warning seems to be more and more urgent. The domestic listed companies in Shandong Province has its unique geographical characteristics (economic, cultural, etc.) and its external operating environment, as a result, the financial distress pre-warning research for the Shandong ST domestic listed companies from 1998 to 2008 has relevance and theoretical significance.
On writing arrangement, the thesis divides into six parts mainly. The first part is the introduction, which generally introduces the research background, research purpose and significance of this thesis, the research innovations, the research methods and paths, and then summarizes contents and construction of the thesis. The second part analyses the research ways of the financial distress pre-warning firstly, and then summarizes the financial distress pre-warning research models both home and abroad, especially generalize the domestic research in detail. On this basis, we clear the research methods and ways of our thesis. The third part is the basis of the empirical research. The main content of this part is that go deep into analyze the risks overview of special treatment domestic listed enterprises in Shandong Province and the reasons of why implement special treatment to the listed enterprises from 1998 to 2008. The result of the analysis indicates the fierce market competitions, the deteriorate operating environment, imperfect corporate governance structure, external security to bear the loss etc. are the main reasons of listed enterprises in Shandong province get caught into the financial distress. The four parts is the design of empirical research, which is the core part in the thesis, includes defining the financial Distress, to choose sample data, to choose and define the financial distress pre-warning variables. We analyze and choose the financial distress pre-warning indicators variables through descriptive statistics, mean equality test and the principal component analysis. The fifth part is the subject of our thesis. We will build the model the financial distress pre-warning of listed enterprises in Shandong province, and use the fisher analysis and Logit analysis to build models, and then compare and analyze the two empirical models. The sixth part is conclusion and suggestions, which sums up the main results of the whole research and put forward some suggestions, clarifies the innovative points, and makes discussions on the limits and future study directions of the research.
引文
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2 Beaver W.H.,Financial ratios as predictor of failure,Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research,1966.
3 合肥工业大学-国元证券.证券公司失败研究.上海证券交易所第十三期联合研究计划课题,2005.
4 陈静.上市公司财务恶化预测的实证分析[J].会计研究,1999.
5 Edward I.Altman,Financial Ratios,Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy,Journal of Finance,1968.
6 Edward I.Altman,R.G.Haldman,P.Narayanan,Zeta Analysis:A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of corporations,Journal of Banking and Finance,1977.
7 周首华,杨济华,王平.论财务危机的预警分析--F分数模式[J].会计研究,1996.
8 张玲.财务危机预警分析判别模型[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2000.
9 高培业,张道奎.企业失败判别模型实证研究[J].统计研究,2000.
10 杨淑娥,徐伟刚.上市公司财务预警模型--Y分数模型的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2003.
11 James A.Ohlson,Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy,Journal of Accounting Research,1980.
12 Collins,Green,Statistical Methods for Bankruptcy Forecasting,Journal of Economics and Business,1982.
13 Andrews,Evi,Predicting Coroorate Failure:Empirical Evidence from the UK.European Accounting Review,2004.
14 陈晓,陈治鸿.中国上市公司的财务困境预测[J].中国会计与财务研究,2000.
15 姜秀华,孙铮.治理弱化与财务危机:一个预测模型[J].南开管理评论,2001.
16 吴世农,卢贤义.我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究[J].经济研究,2001.
17 乔卓,薛锋,柯孔林.上市公司财务困境预测Logit模型实证研究[J].华东经济管理,2005.
18 宋力,李晶.上市公司财务危机预警模型的实证研究[J].财经论丛,2004.
19 张鸣,程涛.上市公司财务预警实证研究的动态视角[J].财经研究,2005.
20 吕峻.基于财务比率调整的上市公司财务困境预测[J].陕西财经大学学报,2006.
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