基于森林碳汇信息的福建省低碳发展研究
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摘要
低碳发展是适应与减缓全球气候变化、实现人类社会可持续发展的重要理念与行动。森林作为陆地生态系统最主要的碳汇，是低碳发展的重要有机组成部分。估算我国区域尺度森林碳汇信息，进行经济发展与碳收支数量分析和低碳发展评价，有助于深刻认识当前森林碳汇在我国区域低碳发展中的重要作用，对于开展森林“增汇”行动促进区域可持续发展具有重要意义。对此，本论文在低碳发展理念的指导下，以福建省为例开展了以下主要研究：
（1）森林碳汇估算。采用耦合遥感的过程机理模型BEPS（BorealEcosystem Productivity Simulator）估算福建省森林净初级生产力（NPP）。针对山区地形影响问题，创新性地提出了地形调节植被指数（TAVI）提高BEPS模型估算森林NPP的精度。研究结果表明，福建省森林NPP全年平均值为587.13gC/m2.a，全年累计达到46.77×106tC；福建省森林NPP空间分布与海拔密切相关，并与农民问题联系紧密。
（2）经济发展与碳收支数量分析。通过对福建省各县市人均GDP与人均森林净生态系统生产力（NEP）、人均能耗碳排放、人均碳平衡量的数量分析，表明福建省大约45%的县市属于“碳汇型发展体”；人均碳平衡量与人均GDP表现为“U曲线发展形态”，而非环境库兹涅茨曲线关系；“U曲线漂移假说”推理认为随着低碳发展的不断推进，“U曲线关系”会向“0碳平衡量——高GDP”方向漂移，并逐步实现地区贫富差距的缩小。
（3）低碳发展评价。根据低碳发展本质特征，从“经济发展、碳收支与社会和谐”三分量构建福建省低碳发展评价指标体系，采用熵值——模糊层次分析法确定评价指标权重，进行福建省各县市低碳发展评价与排序；提出“效度指数”分析不同评价指标对低碳发展评价结果的“作用力”。结果表明，武夷山市低碳发展指数（LCDI）最高；第三产业比重、人均森林NPP与人均能耗碳排放三项评价指标对福建省低碳发展指数的“作用力”较大。
（4）森林“增汇”推进低碳发展建议。根据福建省低碳发展分析与评价结果，建议开展森林碳汇生态补偿、发展特色低碳森林产业、淡化“清洁发展机制”下森林碳汇交易等森林“增汇”措施，推进福建省低碳发展。
Low carbon development is the vital strategy to adapt and mitigate globalclimate change, and promote sustainable development of human being society.The forest, as the most important carbon sink, plays an important role in theglobal carbon cycle, and becomes the cost-effective solution to absorb CO2from atmosphere presently. It is valuable to obtain the low carbon developmentinformation before decision-making in regional sustainable development. Then,the forest carbon sink simulation, and low carbon development analysis andassessment in Fujian Province, China were accomplished, under the guidance oflow carbon development concept.
Firstly, forest net primary productivity (NPP) was simulated by borealecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) integrated with remote sensinginformation. A novel topography-adjusted vegetation index (TAVI) wasproposed in this study to eliminate the topographic effect in remote sensingimage from rugged terrain, and improve forest NPP simulation accuracy byBEPS. The final simulated result from both BEPS and TAVI showed that theannual average forest NPP of Fujian Province, China was587.13gC/m2.a, andthe annual total forest NPP reaches46.77×106tC. And the spatial analysisindicated the forest NPP is highly correlated with elevation.
Secondly, scatter plot analysis between economy development and carbonbudget was studied. The analysis results showed that there is “U” curverelationship between per capita carbon balance amount and per capita GDP, butnot environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship. And about45%countiesor cities in Fujian Province belong to “carbon sink development cell”. Moreover,the “U curve drift hypothesis” was put forward, which means the “U” curve maymove to the “0carbon balance amount-high GDP” zone, and the incomedifference between regions may minimize with the progress of regional lowcarbon development.
Thirdly, the low carbon development assessment index framework wasconstructed according to “economy development, carbon budget and social harmony”3dimensions. Then the low carbon development index (LCDI) ofFujian Province, China was computed with the entropy-fuzzy analytic hierarchyprocess (FAHP) method, and the effect of assessment indices was analyzed also.Assessment results demonstrated that the LCDI was principally determined bythese3indices: percentage of tertiary industry, per capita forest NPP and percapita energy consumption carbon releases; and Wuyishan city get the highestLCDI score.
Finally, several countermeasures to increase forest carbon sinks in FujianProvince, China were suggested, which includes forest carbon sinks eco-compensation, development of low carbon forest industry and rational treatmentthe forest carbon trade under “clean development mechanism (CDM)”.
（1）森林碳汇估算。采用耦合遥感的过程机理模型BEPS（BorealEcosystem Productivity Simulator）估算福建省森林净初级生产力（NPP）。针对山区地形影响问题，创新性地提出了地形调节植被指数（TAVI）提高BEPS模型估算森林NPP的精度。研究结果表明，福建省森林NPP全年平均值为587.13gC/m2.a，全年累计达到46.77×106tC；福建省森林NPP空间分布与海拔密切相关，并与农民问题联系紧密。
（2）经济发展与碳收支数量分析。通过对福建省各县市人均GDP与人均森林净生态系统生产力（NEP）、人均能耗碳排放、人均碳平衡量的数量分析，表明福建省大约45%的县市属于“碳汇型发展体”；人均碳平衡量与人均GDP表现为“U曲线发展形态”，而非环境库兹涅茨曲线关系；“U曲线漂移假说”推理认为随着低碳发展的不断推进，“U曲线关系”会向“0碳平衡量——高GDP”方向漂移，并逐步实现地区贫富差距的缩小。
（3）低碳发展评价。根据低碳发展本质特征，从“经济发展、碳收支与社会和谐”三分量构建福建省低碳发展评价指标体系，采用熵值——模糊层次分析法确定评价指标权重，进行福建省各县市低碳发展评价与排序；提出“效度指数”分析不同评价指标对低碳发展评价结果的“作用力”。结果表明，武夷山市低碳发展指数（LCDI）最高；第三产业比重、人均森林NPP与人均能耗碳排放三项评价指标对福建省低碳发展指数的“作用力”较大。
（4）森林“增汇”推进低碳发展建议。根据福建省低碳发展分析与评价结果，建议开展森林碳汇生态补偿、发展特色低碳森林产业、淡化“清洁发展机制”下森林碳汇交易等森林“增汇”措施，推进福建省低碳发展。
Low carbon development is the vital strategy to adapt and mitigate globalclimate change, and promote sustainable development of human being society.The forest, as the most important carbon sink, plays an important role in theglobal carbon cycle, and becomes the cost-effective solution to absorb CO2from atmosphere presently. It is valuable to obtain the low carbon developmentinformation before decision-making in regional sustainable development. Then,the forest carbon sink simulation, and low carbon development analysis andassessment in Fujian Province, China were accomplished, under the guidance oflow carbon development concept.
Firstly, forest net primary productivity (NPP) was simulated by borealecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) integrated with remote sensinginformation. A novel topography-adjusted vegetation index (TAVI) wasproposed in this study to eliminate the topographic effect in remote sensingimage from rugged terrain, and improve forest NPP simulation accuracy byBEPS. The final simulated result from both BEPS and TAVI showed that theannual average forest NPP of Fujian Province, China was587.13gC/m2.a, andthe annual total forest NPP reaches46.77×106tC. And the spatial analysisindicated the forest NPP is highly correlated with elevation.
Secondly, scatter plot analysis between economy development and carbonbudget was studied. The analysis results showed that there is “U” curverelationship between per capita carbon balance amount and per capita GDP, butnot environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship. And about45%countiesor cities in Fujian Province belong to “carbon sink development cell”. Moreover,the “U curve drift hypothesis” was put forward, which means the “U” curve maymove to the “0carbon balance amount-high GDP” zone, and the incomedifference between regions may minimize with the progress of regional lowcarbon development.
Thirdly, the low carbon development assessment index framework wasconstructed according to “economy development, carbon budget and social harmony”3dimensions. Then the low carbon development index (LCDI) ofFujian Province, China was computed with the entropy-fuzzy analytic hierarchyprocess (FAHP) method, and the effect of assessment indices was analyzed also.Assessment results demonstrated that the LCDI was principally determined bythese3indices: percentage of tertiary industry, per capita forest NPP and percapita energy consumption carbon releases; and Wuyishan city get the highestLCDI score.
Finally, several countermeasures to increase forest carbon sinks in FujianProvince, China were suggested, which includes forest carbon sinks eco-compensation, development of low carbon forest industry and rational treatmentthe forest carbon trade under “clean development mechanism (CDM)”.
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