中国二氧化碳减排的路径选择与评价研究
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摘要
近年来,全球气候变暖日益引起国际社会的普遍关注,成为世界各国共同面临的危机和挑战。目前,中国二氧化碳的排放量已经超过美国,位居世界第一,二氧化碳减排的压力越来越大。因此研究适合于中国国情的二氧化碳减排道路,不仅有利于我国的可持续发展,而且对缓和全球气候变暖具有重要意义。
本文主要基于能源与环境领域的数据分析与建模方法研究了中国二氧化碳排放相关问题,分析了我国能源消费、二氧化碳排放的影响因素及区域性差异,对我国未来的二氧化碳排放量进行了短期预测。借助于大规模优化分析建模思想,针对我国的二氧化碳减排问题进行了路径优化分析,并创造性的把数据包络分析方法应用到二氧化碳减排效果评价领域。通过对这些问题的研究我们发现：影响我国能源消费主要有城市化率、人口、GDP三个因素,并且这些影响因素的变化趋势存在周期性波动现象；影响我国二氧化碳排放主要有人均GDP、产业结构、人口、城市化率、技术水平五个因素。它们通过直接影响和间接影响两种方式交互的影响我国的碳排放水平。并且在不同的区域,这些影响因素存在差异；我国短期内的二氧化碳排放量仍将保持较快的增长趋势,不同情景下排放结果有很大的不同；制造业和建筑业所产生的二氧化碳量占终端排放子部门总二氧化碳排放量的76.67%,制造和建筑业中排放量最多的前四个部门分别是黑色金属制造业、非金属矿物制品业、化学工业以及非金属制造业；要达到我国在国际社会上承诺的减排成果,2020年之前我国产业结构需要作出进一步调整；2008年到2010年,我国实施的减排措施所产生的减排效果普遍存在技术无效现象。
这些研究成果对我国产业结构、能源消费结构的调整,对我国能源战略和二氧化碳减排政策的制定具有积极的理论参考价值和现实意义,有助于我国实现低碳经济和可持续发展的目标。
In recent years, the issue of global warming has been concerned increasingly and widespreadly by the international community, being the crisis and challenges of all countries in the world. At present, China has been the lagestest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the world, exceeding the United States, whose pressure on CO2reduction is increasing. Therefore, development path study on CO2reduction which suits to China's national conditions is not only conducive to China's sustainable development but also has important significance on mitigating global climate warming.
This article mainly studies the issues related to China's CO2emissions based on data analysis and model methods in the fields of energy and environment, analyzing the influencing factors of China's energy consumption and CO2emissions, also the regional differences of these factors, forecastting China's short-term CO2emissions in the future. By means of large-scale modeling idea, optimization analysis on the problem of CO2reduction path in China are conducted, furthermore, data envelopment analysis (DEA) method is creatively applied to the field of CO2reduction effect assessment. Through analysis, we find that:urbanization, population and GDP are mainly the three factors affecting China's energy consumption, and the trend of cyclical fluctuations exist in these factors; there are maily five factors affecting China's CO2emissions, namely per capita GDP, industrial structure, population, urbanization, and technological level, which exert an influence through direct and indirect ways. In addition, there are significant differences of these factors in different regions; China's short-term CO2emissions will maintain a rapid growth trend continuely, forcasting results in different scenarios are very different; CO2emission produced by manufacturing and construction accounted for76.67%of the total CO2emissions from terminal sub-sectors. The sequence of first four maximum CO2emitters in the industry and construction is ferrous metalindustry, non-metallic mineral industry, chemical industry and non-ferrous metal. The industry structure of China needs to make further adjustments before2020for the achievements of China's commitments to the international community on the emission reduction; During2008and2010, CO2reduction effect of every sector exists technology invalid phenomena widespreadly.
The research results have positive theoretical reference value and practical significance for the adjustments of China's industrial structure and energy consumption structure and for the formulation of China's energy strategy and CO2reduction policies, helping China to achieve its low-carbon economy and sustainable development goal.
本文主要基于能源与环境领域的数据分析与建模方法研究了中国二氧化碳排放相关问题,分析了我国能源消费、二氧化碳排放的影响因素及区域性差异,对我国未来的二氧化碳排放量进行了短期预测。借助于大规模优化分析建模思想,针对我国的二氧化碳减排问题进行了路径优化分析,并创造性的把数据包络分析方法应用到二氧化碳减排效果评价领域。通过对这些问题的研究我们发现：影响我国能源消费主要有城市化率、人口、GDP三个因素,并且这些影响因素的变化趋势存在周期性波动现象；影响我国二氧化碳排放主要有人均GDP、产业结构、人口、城市化率、技术水平五个因素。它们通过直接影响和间接影响两种方式交互的影响我国的碳排放水平。并且在不同的区域,这些影响因素存在差异；我国短期内的二氧化碳排放量仍将保持较快的增长趋势,不同情景下排放结果有很大的不同；制造业和建筑业所产生的二氧化碳量占终端排放子部门总二氧化碳排放量的76.67%,制造和建筑业中排放量最多的前四个部门分别是黑色金属制造业、非金属矿物制品业、化学工业以及非金属制造业；要达到我国在国际社会上承诺的减排成果,2020年之前我国产业结构需要作出进一步调整；2008年到2010年,我国实施的减排措施所产生的减排效果普遍存在技术无效现象。
这些研究成果对我国产业结构、能源消费结构的调整,对我国能源战略和二氧化碳减排政策的制定具有积极的理论参考价值和现实意义,有助于我国实现低碳经济和可持续发展的目标。
In recent years, the issue of global warming has been concerned increasingly and widespreadly by the international community, being the crisis and challenges of all countries in the world. At present, China has been the lagestest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the world, exceeding the United States, whose pressure on CO2reduction is increasing. Therefore, development path study on CO2reduction which suits to China's national conditions is not only conducive to China's sustainable development but also has important significance on mitigating global climate warming.
This article mainly studies the issues related to China's CO2emissions based on data analysis and model methods in the fields of energy and environment, analyzing the influencing factors of China's energy consumption and CO2emissions, also the regional differences of these factors, forecastting China's short-term CO2emissions in the future. By means of large-scale modeling idea, optimization analysis on the problem of CO2reduction path in China are conducted, furthermore, data envelopment analysis (DEA) method is creatively applied to the field of CO2reduction effect assessment. Through analysis, we find that:urbanization, population and GDP are mainly the three factors affecting China's energy consumption, and the trend of cyclical fluctuations exist in these factors; there are maily five factors affecting China's CO2emissions, namely per capita GDP, industrial structure, population, urbanization, and technological level, which exert an influence through direct and indirect ways. In addition, there are significant differences of these factors in different regions; China's short-term CO2emissions will maintain a rapid growth trend continuely, forcasting results in different scenarios are very different; CO2emission produced by manufacturing and construction accounted for76.67%of the total CO2emissions from terminal sub-sectors. The sequence of first four maximum CO2emitters in the industry and construction is ferrous metalindustry, non-metallic mineral industry, chemical industry and non-ferrous metal. The industry structure of China needs to make further adjustments before2020for the achievements of China's commitments to the international community on the emission reduction; During2008and2010, CO2reduction effect of every sector exists technology invalid phenomena widespreadly.
The research results have positive theoretical reference value and practical significance for the adjustments of China's industrial structure and energy consumption structure and for the formulation of China's energy strategy and CO2reduction policies, helping China to achieve its low-carbon economy and sustainable development goal.
引文
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