人口红利、养老保险改革与经济增长
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摘要
人口红利理论是最近几年国外学者提出的研究非稳态人口转变过程对经济增长影响情况的人口经济学理论。
探索经济持续增长的源泉是宏观经济学和宏观经济学家永远的研究方向和职业责任。主流经济增长理论一般把资本、劳动、技术进步、制度转变等因素当作影响经济增长的主要动力。新古典经济增长理论虽然在解释国家之间贫富差距原因时将人口增长因素纳入了理论视野,预言人口增长率较高的国家其人均 GDP 水平较低,并得到国际数据的经验支持。但是,已经开展的这些研究都是基于人口稳态增长的假设,而这是与很多国家的人口转变现实不相符的。实际上,由于医疗卫生技术的进步、人们生育观念的转变、计划生育政策的实施等原因,现代社会,尤其是二战以后多数国家的人口转变都是非稳态的过程。如果排除其他因素,从理论上讲,这种非稳态的人口转变过程本身就可能对经济增长产生巨大的影响。幸运的是,近年来国外很多经济学家开展的实证研究为这个经济理论逻辑提供了经验支持,他们通常将这种人口非稳态转变过程对经济增长的积极影响称之为“人口红利”。
中国的人口在建国以后也经历了一个非稳态的转变过程,而且由于计划生育政策的实施,中国的人口转变过程呈现持续时间短、变动幅度大、未富先老等特点,这种非稳态的转变过程是否也对中国的经济增长产生了积极影响,或者说中国的人口转变是否也带来了 “人口红利”?这种“人口红利”能够持续到何时,能否延长“人口红利”的发生时间,怎样延长?面对来势汹涌的“银发浪潮”,中国应该建立怎样的养老保险制度来为老年人口提供有效的养老保障,并能够保持经济的持续增长?这一系列的问题组成了本研究的逻辑导线。
本文将“人口红利”进一步划分为“第一人口红利”和“第二人口红利”。其中,“第一人口红利”是指由于人口转变所带来的劳动年龄人口比例提高和劳动供给增加所推动的经济增长;“第二人口红利”是指具有经济理性的经济主体为应对人口年龄结构的预期变化,将一生的收入和消费在生命周期内进行平滑以求取最大效用,在生产效率较高的壮年阶段,其收入中用于储蓄的比例将明显高于其他阶段,由此反映出的在人口转变的特定阶段,由于高比例的劳动年龄人口带来的国民储蓄率升高和资本供给增加对经济增长所产生的推动作用。
本文分为上、下两篇,上篇包括第一、二、三章,下篇包括第四、五、六、七章。
第一章主要论述人口红利与经济增长的关系。本章在综合比较主流经济增长理论的基础上,重点探讨了经济增长中的人口因素,并利用“人口红利”理论的分析框架,对中国改革开放以来的所创造的经济增长奇迹进行剖析,揭示人口转变在中国经济发展中所起到的重要作用,验证中国人口转变过程中“第一人口红利”的存在性问题。
第二章主要是建立引入人口年龄结构变量的生命周期储蓄模型。首先,对储蓄与经济增长之间的关系进行阐述,其后对西方储蓄理论进行梳理,在储蓄理论中重点介绍莫迪利亚尼的生命周期储蓄模型。在该模型基础上,引入反映人口年龄结构状况的抚养比变量来对生命周期储蓄模型进行扩展,从理论上论证人口转变过程中“第二人口红利”的存在,并依此作为下一章进行经验研究的理论基础。
第三章是本论文的实证部分,本章的主要任务就是在上一章导出的理论模型基础上,利用中国的有关数据,对该理论模型进行实证检验,分析人口年龄因素对总储蓄率的影响方向和影响程度,对“第二人口红利”的存在性进行实证分析。
第四章主要是运用新古典主义经济学的分析方法,对现收现付制和完全基金制两种养老保险制度模式进行理论分析,探讨两种制度模式的不同经济效应。结合人口转变情况,分析不同的养老保险制度选择对保持和延长“人口红利”的具体影响,并总结世界范围内养老保
The theory of demographic dividend is a new perspective of demographic economics which was developed by foreign economists to detect the economic consequences of the non-stationary state Population transitions.
It is the forever research direction and career responsibility of macroeconomics and macroeconomists. The mainstream economic growth theories treat commonly capital,labour,technical advancement and institution transition as the major factors to fuel economic growth. Neoclassical economics took the population growth into account when it was looking for reasons to explain the great income difference among countries and predicted that the higher is the population growth rate,the lower is the per capital GDP in a country,and it was sustained by experiential data of many countries. However,these completed researches were all based on the assumption that the population growth steadily. It is unconformable with the population transition actuality of many countries. Due to the advancement of medical technique and health service,the transformation of people's procreate notion,the implement of family planning and so on,the demographic transitions of many countries are non-stationary state in modern society,especially from postwar. According to the related economic theory,the non-stationary population transition should effect weightily economic growth if we hold other factors . Fortunately,some foreign economistes' demonstration research supplied the experimental support for this economic theoretical logic. They named this kind of positive affect as "demographic dividend"which the non-stationary population transition can fuel economic growth.
China population underwent a non-stationary state transition from it was found in 1949. Moreover,China population transition was charactered short duration,great fluctuant scope and "aging preceding richness"because the family planning was implemented strictly in China from 1970s. Whether did China population non-stationary transition effected positively economic growth? In other words,Whether did China population transition bring "demographic dividend"?How long can this "demographic dividend"sustain? Could we prolong the period of "demographic dividend"?And how to do? Being confronted of the forthcoming surgent "agedness tide",What kind of pension system should be established to supply the effective old age security for old people and maintain the high rate of economic growth in China? All of these problems pose the logical lead of this thesis.
I divide the "demographic dividend"into "the first demographic dividend "and"the second demographic dividend"in the thesis. Further more,"the first demographic dividend"arises because the demographic transition induces changes in population age structure that raise the share of the population concentrated at the productive ages and increase the supply of labor,at the same time,the burden of population is lighter. "The second demographic dividend "arises as the rational economic subject respond to anticipated changes in popula -tion age structure,and smooth the whole income and consumption in his life to gain the maximum utility,the proportion of saving in the income in the period of productive age will be higher than that in the other period. Namely,"The second demographic dividend "is the economic growth droved by the high rate of national savings and increased capital supply due to high proportion of productive age population in the special period of demographic transition.
The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part includes chapter one,chapter two and
chapter three. The second part includes chapter four to chapter seven.
The chapter one is mostly about the relation between demographic and economic growth. We especially inspect the function of demographic transition to economic growth after analyses compositively the mainstream theory of economic growth. With the analytical framework of "demographic dividend"theory,we examined China's economic growth miracle from its openness and reformation,exposed the important act
探索经济持续增长的源泉是宏观经济学和宏观经济学家永远的研究方向和职业责任。主流经济增长理论一般把资本、劳动、技术进步、制度转变等因素当作影响经济增长的主要动力。新古典经济增长理论虽然在解释国家之间贫富差距原因时将人口增长因素纳入了理论视野,预言人口增长率较高的国家其人均 GDP 水平较低,并得到国际数据的经验支持。但是,已经开展的这些研究都是基于人口稳态增长的假设,而这是与很多国家的人口转变现实不相符的。实际上,由于医疗卫生技术的进步、人们生育观念的转变、计划生育政策的实施等原因,现代社会,尤其是二战以后多数国家的人口转变都是非稳态的过程。如果排除其他因素,从理论上讲,这种非稳态的人口转变过程本身就可能对经济增长产生巨大的影响。幸运的是,近年来国外很多经济学家开展的实证研究为这个经济理论逻辑提供了经验支持,他们通常将这种人口非稳态转变过程对经济增长的积极影响称之为“人口红利”。
中国的人口在建国以后也经历了一个非稳态的转变过程,而且由于计划生育政策的实施,中国的人口转变过程呈现持续时间短、变动幅度大、未富先老等特点,这种非稳态的转变过程是否也对中国的经济增长产生了积极影响,或者说中国的人口转变是否也带来了 “人口红利”?这种“人口红利”能够持续到何时,能否延长“人口红利”的发生时间,怎样延长?面对来势汹涌的“银发浪潮”,中国应该建立怎样的养老保险制度来为老年人口提供有效的养老保障,并能够保持经济的持续增长?这一系列的问题组成了本研究的逻辑导线。
本文将“人口红利”进一步划分为“第一人口红利”和“第二人口红利”。其中,“第一人口红利”是指由于人口转变所带来的劳动年龄人口比例提高和劳动供给增加所推动的经济增长;“第二人口红利”是指具有经济理性的经济主体为应对人口年龄结构的预期变化,将一生的收入和消费在生命周期内进行平滑以求取最大效用,在生产效率较高的壮年阶段,其收入中用于储蓄的比例将明显高于其他阶段,由此反映出的在人口转变的特定阶段,由于高比例的劳动年龄人口带来的国民储蓄率升高和资本供给增加对经济增长所产生的推动作用。
本文分为上、下两篇,上篇包括第一、二、三章,下篇包括第四、五、六、七章。
第一章主要论述人口红利与经济增长的关系。本章在综合比较主流经济增长理论的基础上,重点探讨了经济增长中的人口因素,并利用“人口红利”理论的分析框架,对中国改革开放以来的所创造的经济增长奇迹进行剖析,揭示人口转变在中国经济发展中所起到的重要作用,验证中国人口转变过程中“第一人口红利”的存在性问题。
第二章主要是建立引入人口年龄结构变量的生命周期储蓄模型。首先,对储蓄与经济增长之间的关系进行阐述,其后对西方储蓄理论进行梳理,在储蓄理论中重点介绍莫迪利亚尼的生命周期储蓄模型。在该模型基础上,引入反映人口年龄结构状况的抚养比变量来对生命周期储蓄模型进行扩展,从理论上论证人口转变过程中“第二人口红利”的存在,并依此作为下一章进行经验研究的理论基础。
第三章是本论文的实证部分,本章的主要任务就是在上一章导出的理论模型基础上,利用中国的有关数据,对该理论模型进行实证检验,分析人口年龄因素对总储蓄率的影响方向和影响程度,对“第二人口红利”的存在性进行实证分析。
第四章主要是运用新古典主义经济学的分析方法,对现收现付制和完全基金制两种养老保险制度模式进行理论分析,探讨两种制度模式的不同经济效应。结合人口转变情况,分析不同的养老保险制度选择对保持和延长“人口红利”的具体影响,并总结世界范围内养老保
The theory of demographic dividend is a new perspective of demographic economics which was developed by foreign economists to detect the economic consequences of the non-stationary state Population transitions.
It is the forever research direction and career responsibility of macroeconomics and macroeconomists. The mainstream economic growth theories treat commonly capital,labour,technical advancement and institution transition as the major factors to fuel economic growth. Neoclassical economics took the population growth into account when it was looking for reasons to explain the great income difference among countries and predicted that the higher is the population growth rate,the lower is the per capital GDP in a country,and it was sustained by experiential data of many countries. However,these completed researches were all based on the assumption that the population growth steadily. It is unconformable with the population transition actuality of many countries. Due to the advancement of medical technique and health service,the transformation of people's procreate notion,the implement of family planning and so on,the demographic transitions of many countries are non-stationary state in modern society,especially from postwar. According to the related economic theory,the non-stationary population transition should effect weightily economic growth if we hold other factors . Fortunately,some foreign economistes' demonstration research supplied the experimental support for this economic theoretical logic. They named this kind of positive affect as "demographic dividend"which the non-stationary population transition can fuel economic growth.
China population underwent a non-stationary state transition from it was found in 1949. Moreover,China population transition was charactered short duration,great fluctuant scope and "aging preceding richness"because the family planning was implemented strictly in China from 1970s. Whether did China population non-stationary transition effected positively economic growth? In other words,Whether did China population transition bring "demographic dividend"?How long can this "demographic dividend"sustain? Could we prolong the period of "demographic dividend"?And how to do? Being confronted of the forthcoming surgent "agedness tide",What kind of pension system should be established to supply the effective old age security for old people and maintain the high rate of economic growth in China? All of these problems pose the logical lead of this thesis.
I divide the "demographic dividend"into "the first demographic dividend "and"the second demographic dividend"in the thesis. Further more,"the first demographic dividend"arises because the demographic transition induces changes in population age structure that raise the share of the population concentrated at the productive ages and increase the supply of labor,at the same time,the burden of population is lighter. "The second demographic dividend "arises as the rational economic subject respond to anticipated changes in popula -tion age structure,and smooth the whole income and consumption in his life to gain the maximum utility,the proportion of saving in the income in the period of productive age will be higher than that in the other period. Namely,"The second demographic dividend "is the economic growth droved by the high rate of national savings and increased capital supply due to high proportion of productive age population in the special period of demographic transition.
The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part includes chapter one,chapter two and
chapter three. The second part includes chapter four to chapter seven.
The chapter one is mostly about the relation between demographic and economic growth. We especially inspect the function of demographic transition to economic growth after analyses compositively the mainstream theory of economic growth. With the analytical framework of "demographic dividend"theory,we examined China's economic growth miracle from its openness and reformation,exposed the important act
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