沿海台风风暴潮灾害复合情景模拟与应急避难研究-以上海为例
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摘要
全球突发性自然-人为复合灾害事件日渐频繁,造成严重的生态环境破坏和人员伤亡,如何构建科学合理的防灾减灾体系已成为全球、国家和区域可持续发展进程中共同面临的科学难题。沿海地区因人口聚集、经济发达和气象灾害频发成为当前防灾减灾的重点区域。区域海平面的上升,叠加城市化过程中负面因素的干扰,促使沿海地区孕灾环境的加速演变,承灾系统抗灾能力下降。在监测预警技术和应急响应能力仍滞后的背景下,加强灾害情景模拟、风险评估与应急响应的集成研究将有助于沿海地区科学有效地应对各类突发性灾害事件。
在国家自然科学基金重点项目“沿海城市自然灾害风险应急预案情景分析(40730526)”、“中国沿海城市自然灾害风险评估体系研究(40571006)”和上海市科技启明星计划项目“基于情景分析的上海市自然灾害风险评估与区划研究(09QA1401800)”、华东师范大学优秀博士培养基金(No.2010033)等科研项目的支撑下,本论文紧密结合沿海地区应对极端台风风暴潮灾害的迫切需求,基于区域台风风暴潮灾害风险系统的驱动力-压力-状态-响应(DPSR)作用机制,提出构建集灾害复合情景模拟、灾害风险区划与预警、应急疏散模拟为一体的防灾应急避难理论与方法体系,并以上海为例开展实证研究。研究成果旨在为上海等沿海城市防灾应急疏散预案编制提供理论和技术支撑。本论文主要从以下方面开展理论与实证研究：
首先,从城市系统动力学角度,提出并构建沿海城市台风风暴潮灾害风险系统的D-P-S-R理论研究模式,即以台风-风暴潮等致灾因子为驱动力(D),分析海平面上升、地面沉降和冲淤变化等环境演变压力(P)背景下承灾体的风险状态(S),从风险区划、预警发布和应急疏散探讨响应策略(R),深入探讨了风险系统各要素的自身内涵以及要素间的作用关系,由此初步形成城市灾害风险系统动力学研究范式,补充和完善当前自然灾害风险评估与控制的理论方法体系。
其次,依据情景分析和风险评估基础理论,综合得出台风风暴潮灾害风险是由时间情景、空间情景和强度情景复合而成；通过定性描述与定量赋值相结合的方式确定台风风暴潮灾害复合情景的因子构成,采用递推法组合了低风险、中风险、高风险三类层次的情景矩阵；在二维水动力模型MIKE HD和GIS空间分析技术的支持下,实现了各类复合情景下台风风暴潮的增水-漫堤-溃堤-淹没演进过程模拟,对模拟结果进行数据输出并构建灾害情景风险数据库,通过GIS可视化和专题制图技术实现灾害风险区划与预警分级。
第三,基于灾害风险复合情景模拟的时空序列结果,分析某给定情景下人群的时空活动特征,并建立了受灾避难人口数量及空间分布数学预测模型,以此确定沿海城市防洪应急避难的情景需求；通过对学校等开放空间的防洪避难适宜性评价遴选备选避难场所；应用区位配置理论之集合覆盖模型实现避难场所的服务区划；基于防洪应急避难网络系统,应用最优路径疏散算法实现了应急疏散过程的动态模拟；综上,建立集灾害场景构建、避难场所选址与服务区划、动态疏散模拟于一体的防洪应急避难服务体系,为城市防洪应急响应工作的快速有效开展提供理论与方法的支撑。
第四,基于SimpleGIS二次开发平台,采用VC#+AE的开发模式,完成沿海城市台风风暴潮灾害风险区划与应急避难系统的整体架构设计和桌面系统研发,初步实现了灾害风险区划、应急避难等若干工具的有效集成,基本满足灾害研究的一体化和可视化的功能需求,为应急疏散预案的动态和可视化编制提供了有效途径,对于防灾减灾部门指导灾害实践具有一定的应用价值。
最后,基于上述的理论方法和工具集,以上海为例开展了区域台风风暴潮灾害的复合情景模拟与应急避难研究,结果表明,现今至2030年上海地区主要验潮站潮位增长速率为2-3mm/a,年均地面沉降速率约为2mm/a,区域相对海平面上升趋势明显,孕灾环境加速演变；现有海堤工程面临着1000年一遇台风风暴潮威胁,浦东和金山地区海堤存在4个高风险溃堤断面,亟需加强工程防御和应急体系建设；复合情景2010 P3 K1模拟结果显示,金山区受灾范围为金山卫镇、山阳镇和石化街道,避难人口为150994人,采取应急区划和分阶段疏散模拟,完成整体疏散共需46.02分钟,灾害风险区划与应急避难分析工具集对于应急疏散预案的动态、可视化编制具有重要的辅助决策作用。
Unexpected natural disasters occur with increasingly frequency and have caused ecological damage and human casualties worldwide. Establish a scientific system for disaster prevention and mitigation to ensure the global/regional sustainable development is our priority. Given the high population density, developed economy and frequent meteorological disasters, coastal areas have become the focus of relative research in regional disaster prevention and mitigation. What's more, regional sea-level rise and rapid progress of urbanization have brought negative impact on the evolution of hazard-formative environment, and increased the vulnerability in these areas. Therefore, under the low-level pre-disaster warning system, coastal areas are exposed to a high risk of extreme hazard events. The construction of complex scenarios including disaster risk modeling and assessment, and emergency response system will develop into the major trend in the field of disaster prevention and reduction.
Under the financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.40730526, No.40571006), Shanghai Science and Technology Venus Project(No.09QA1401800), and PhD Program Scholarship Fund of ECNU(Project No.2010033), this dissertation integrated the urgent needs of response to extreme storm surge disaster and conducted the following work:(1) discussed the disaster risk driving force-presure-state-response (DPSR) mechanism; (2) constructed a methodology of disaster emergency shelter system includes complex disaster simulation, disaster risk mapping and early warning, and dynamic emergency evacuation simulation; (3) carried out empirical study in Shanghai. The study aims to provide theoretical and technical supports for Shanghai and other coastal cities in preparing plans for disaster prevention and emergency evacuation.
Several main conclusions are shown as follows:
Firstly, this paper proposed a DPSR theory model to describe the coastal storm surge disaster risk system from the perspective of urban system dynamics. That is, with typhoon storm surge as the driving force, analyzed the risk profile under the environmental evolution pressure of sea rise level, land subsidence, erosion/siltation of seabed, and so on. Discussed the response strategy from the risk zoning, early warning and emergency evacuation, and studied the connotation and interrelationship of the risk system elements in details. Hence, an urban-oriented paradigm of disaster risk was developed to complement the theoretical system of the natural disaster risk assessment and control.
Secondly, based on scenario analysis and risk assessment theories, storm surge disaster risk was compound by the scenarios of time, space and intensity. The factors in storm surge disaster scenarios were analyzed by qualitative and quantitative methods. Compounded scenarios were combined with Low, medium and high scenarios matrix by deduction method. The process of a storm surge disaster in different kinds of complex scenarios were simulated with the support of hydrodynamic model MIKE 21 HD and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, and the output can be used to construct the disaster scenarios risk database. Besides, the disaster risk zoning and early warning were implemented by employing visualization and thematic mapping techniques.
Thirdly, the space-time activity characteristics of population in a given scenario were analyzed based on the above simulated results, and the affected population and spatial distribution model was established. Open space such as school was evaluated in terms of evacuation Suitability, and alternative shelter services were analyzed by applying set covering model. Based on flood control network system, dynamic emergency evacuation process was implemented by employing the optimal path algorithm.
Fourthly, based on secondary development platform SIMGIS, using development model named Visual Studio C# & ArcGIS Engine 9.3, coastal storm surge disaster risk zoning and emergency evacuation desktop system was developed. It integrated a number of tools effectively, such as disaster risk zoning, emergency evacuation; and could basically meet the functional requirements for integration and visualization in present disaster study. The results provide an effective way for the emergency evacuation plan.
Finally, based on the above theoretical and approaches, the empirical study of Shanghai was carried out in its risk complex simulation and emergency refuge of regional storm surge disaster. The results show, the tide level growth rate of main tide gauge stations in Shanghai is 2-3mm/a, the average rate of land subsidence is 2mm/a during 2010-2030. the evolution of hazard-formative environment will be accelerated, and the present sea embankments are exposed to the risk of typhoon storm surge once Millennium.There are 4 sections with high risk in Pudong and Jinshan that are in urgent need of the construction of emergency system and defend projects.Millennium extreme disaster along dike break event in the future, which will lead to an emergency transfer of affected people. Besides, the emergency shelter system should be sped up at all levels.
在国家自然科学基金重点项目“沿海城市自然灾害风险应急预案情景分析(40730526)”、“中国沿海城市自然灾害风险评估体系研究(40571006)”和上海市科技启明星计划项目“基于情景分析的上海市自然灾害风险评估与区划研究(09QA1401800)”、华东师范大学优秀博士培养基金(No.2010033)等科研项目的支撑下,本论文紧密结合沿海地区应对极端台风风暴潮灾害的迫切需求,基于区域台风风暴潮灾害风险系统的驱动力-压力-状态-响应(DPSR)作用机制,提出构建集灾害复合情景模拟、灾害风险区划与预警、应急疏散模拟为一体的防灾应急避难理论与方法体系,并以上海为例开展实证研究。研究成果旨在为上海等沿海城市防灾应急疏散预案编制提供理论和技术支撑。本论文主要从以下方面开展理论与实证研究：
首先,从城市系统动力学角度,提出并构建沿海城市台风风暴潮灾害风险系统的D-P-S-R理论研究模式,即以台风-风暴潮等致灾因子为驱动力(D),分析海平面上升、地面沉降和冲淤变化等环境演变压力(P)背景下承灾体的风险状态(S),从风险区划、预警发布和应急疏散探讨响应策略(R),深入探讨了风险系统各要素的自身内涵以及要素间的作用关系,由此初步形成城市灾害风险系统动力学研究范式,补充和完善当前自然灾害风险评估与控制的理论方法体系。
其次,依据情景分析和风险评估基础理论,综合得出台风风暴潮灾害风险是由时间情景、空间情景和强度情景复合而成；通过定性描述与定量赋值相结合的方式确定台风风暴潮灾害复合情景的因子构成,采用递推法组合了低风险、中风险、高风险三类层次的情景矩阵；在二维水动力模型MIKE HD和GIS空间分析技术的支持下,实现了各类复合情景下台风风暴潮的增水-漫堤-溃堤-淹没演进过程模拟,对模拟结果进行数据输出并构建灾害情景风险数据库,通过GIS可视化和专题制图技术实现灾害风险区划与预警分级。
第三,基于灾害风险复合情景模拟的时空序列结果,分析某给定情景下人群的时空活动特征,并建立了受灾避难人口数量及空间分布数学预测模型,以此确定沿海城市防洪应急避难的情景需求；通过对学校等开放空间的防洪避难适宜性评价遴选备选避难场所；应用区位配置理论之集合覆盖模型实现避难场所的服务区划；基于防洪应急避难网络系统,应用最优路径疏散算法实现了应急疏散过程的动态模拟；综上,建立集灾害场景构建、避难场所选址与服务区划、动态疏散模拟于一体的防洪应急避难服务体系,为城市防洪应急响应工作的快速有效开展提供理论与方法的支撑。
第四,基于SimpleGIS二次开发平台,采用VC#+AE的开发模式,完成沿海城市台风风暴潮灾害风险区划与应急避难系统的整体架构设计和桌面系统研发,初步实现了灾害风险区划、应急避难等若干工具的有效集成,基本满足灾害研究的一体化和可视化的功能需求,为应急疏散预案的动态和可视化编制提供了有效途径,对于防灾减灾部门指导灾害实践具有一定的应用价值。
最后,基于上述的理论方法和工具集,以上海为例开展了区域台风风暴潮灾害的复合情景模拟与应急避难研究,结果表明,现今至2030年上海地区主要验潮站潮位增长速率为2-3mm/a,年均地面沉降速率约为2mm/a,区域相对海平面上升趋势明显,孕灾环境加速演变；现有海堤工程面临着1000年一遇台风风暴潮威胁,浦东和金山地区海堤存在4个高风险溃堤断面,亟需加强工程防御和应急体系建设；复合情景2010 P3 K1模拟结果显示,金山区受灾范围为金山卫镇、山阳镇和石化街道,避难人口为150994人,采取应急区划和分阶段疏散模拟,完成整体疏散共需46.02分钟,灾害风险区划与应急避难分析工具集对于应急疏散预案的动态、可视化编制具有重要的辅助决策作用。
Unexpected natural disasters occur with increasingly frequency and have caused ecological damage and human casualties worldwide. Establish a scientific system for disaster prevention and mitigation to ensure the global/regional sustainable development is our priority. Given the high population density, developed economy and frequent meteorological disasters, coastal areas have become the focus of relative research in regional disaster prevention and mitigation. What's more, regional sea-level rise and rapid progress of urbanization have brought negative impact on the evolution of hazard-formative environment, and increased the vulnerability in these areas. Therefore, under the low-level pre-disaster warning system, coastal areas are exposed to a high risk of extreme hazard events. The construction of complex scenarios including disaster risk modeling and assessment, and emergency response system will develop into the major trend in the field of disaster prevention and reduction.
Under the financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.40730526, No.40571006), Shanghai Science and Technology Venus Project(No.09QA1401800), and PhD Program Scholarship Fund of ECNU(Project No.2010033), this dissertation integrated the urgent needs of response to extreme storm surge disaster and conducted the following work:(1) discussed the disaster risk driving force-presure-state-response (DPSR) mechanism; (2) constructed a methodology of disaster emergency shelter system includes complex disaster simulation, disaster risk mapping and early warning, and dynamic emergency evacuation simulation; (3) carried out empirical study in Shanghai. The study aims to provide theoretical and technical supports for Shanghai and other coastal cities in preparing plans for disaster prevention and emergency evacuation.
Several main conclusions are shown as follows:
Firstly, this paper proposed a DPSR theory model to describe the coastal storm surge disaster risk system from the perspective of urban system dynamics. That is, with typhoon storm surge as the driving force, analyzed the risk profile under the environmental evolution pressure of sea rise level, land subsidence, erosion/siltation of seabed, and so on. Discussed the response strategy from the risk zoning, early warning and emergency evacuation, and studied the connotation and interrelationship of the risk system elements in details. Hence, an urban-oriented paradigm of disaster risk was developed to complement the theoretical system of the natural disaster risk assessment and control.
Secondly, based on scenario analysis and risk assessment theories, storm surge disaster risk was compound by the scenarios of time, space and intensity. The factors in storm surge disaster scenarios were analyzed by qualitative and quantitative methods. Compounded scenarios were combined with Low, medium and high scenarios matrix by deduction method. The process of a storm surge disaster in different kinds of complex scenarios were simulated with the support of hydrodynamic model MIKE 21 HD and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, and the output can be used to construct the disaster scenarios risk database. Besides, the disaster risk zoning and early warning were implemented by employing visualization and thematic mapping techniques.
Thirdly, the space-time activity characteristics of population in a given scenario were analyzed based on the above simulated results, and the affected population and spatial distribution model was established. Open space such as school was evaluated in terms of evacuation Suitability, and alternative shelter services were analyzed by applying set covering model. Based on flood control network system, dynamic emergency evacuation process was implemented by employing the optimal path algorithm.
Fourthly, based on secondary development platform SIMGIS, using development model named Visual Studio C# & ArcGIS Engine 9.3, coastal storm surge disaster risk zoning and emergency evacuation desktop system was developed. It integrated a number of tools effectively, such as disaster risk zoning, emergency evacuation; and could basically meet the functional requirements for integration and visualization in present disaster study. The results provide an effective way for the emergency evacuation plan.
Finally, based on the above theoretical and approaches, the empirical study of Shanghai was carried out in its risk complex simulation and emergency refuge of regional storm surge disaster. The results show, the tide level growth rate of main tide gauge stations in Shanghai is 2-3mm/a, the average rate of land subsidence is 2mm/a during 2010-2030. the evolution of hazard-formative environment will be accelerated, and the present sea embankments are exposed to the risk of typhoon storm surge once Millennium.There are 4 sections with high risk in Pudong and Jinshan that are in urgent need of the construction of emergency system and defend projects.Millennium extreme disaster along dike break event in the future, which will lead to an emergency transfer of affected people. Besides, the emergency shelter system should be sped up at all levels.
引文
http://www.xinhuanet.com/\vorld/zt080506/
2 http://hi.baidu.com/hyq3221023/blog/item/e57d35119f13c5c0a6ct3fc7.html
3 http://zhidao.baidu.com/question/21356525.html
4 上海市城市规划设计研究院.上海市城市总体规划(1999年-2020年)中、近期建设行动计划.2007年.
http://baike.baidu.com/view/278116.htm.
来源太湖流域风暴潮及潮汐特征分析与预报模型研究报告,华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室,国家海洋局东海预报中心,中国气象局上海台风研究所,2005,10.
7太湖流域风暴潮及潮汐特征分析与预报模型研究报告。华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室,国家海洋局东海预报中心,中国气象局上海台风研究所,2005,10
8 http://www.mlr.gov.cn/zwgk/tjxx/201104/t20110426_846186.htm
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3 http://zhidao.baidu.com/question/21356525.html
4 上海市城市规划设计研究院.上海市城市总体规划(1999年-2020年)中、近期建设行动计划.2007年.
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来源太湖流域风暴潮及潮汐特征分析与预报模型研究报告,华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室,国家海洋局东海预报中心,中国气象局上海台风研究所,2005,10.
7太湖流域风暴潮及潮汐特征分析与预报模型研究报告。华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室,国家海洋局东海预报中心,中国气象局上海台风研究所,2005,10
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