EPC项目成本控制中的风险管理研究
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摘要
EPC总承包项目是一项充满风险的事业,成本超支的现象普遍存在,给总承包商和业主带来了严重的利益风险。鉴于此,本文在系统研究国内外总承包项目成本控制和风险管理理论的基础上,利用控制论、系统论、决策论原理,对EPC项目成本控制中的风险进行了有效的控制,达到了降低成本风险的效果。本文的创新点主要有:
(1)将项目成本控制原理应用到EPC项目中,首先制定了EPC项目成本控制的基准和成本测量系统,再对成本偏差进行分析,最后纠正成本偏差。
(2)在风险定性分析理论基础上,用问卷调查的方法归纳建设项目中的成本风险因素,列出重要性评价系数,按照从大到小的顺序将影响成本的风险因素罗列出来,最后分析了建设项目中成本超支的原因。
(3)Monte Carlo模拟方法应用到某EPC中,根据项目的性质,首先确定评价指标,在选择风险变量,确定其概率分布,在随机抽样的基础上计算出评价指标值。最后分析评价指标值,用来指导项目决策。
(4)从项目自身的角度,以项目效益最大化为原则,提出风险联合管理策略。并详细阐述了风险联合管理的理论依据、风险分配指导原则和分担原则。
本文的结论是:构建一个以项目实施流程为主线的风险管理技术、方法和责任分担奖惩体系,是EPC总承包工程项目成本控制方面风险管理的核心所在。
Engineering-Procurement-Construction ( EPC ) general contract projects have lots of uncertain risks, with the cost overspent, general contractor and owner face the serious loss. Therefore, based on cost control and risk management theory of the domestic and overseas general contract projects, the thesis uses control theory, system theory, decision-making theory to manage risks in EPC projects, in order to decrease the risks. These are the creation in the thesis.
Firstly, based on the process control mechanism, the theory of cost control is applied to EPC projects. The procedure in EPC projects is that: set down the standards of the cost control, establish cost measurement system, analyze cost motion and control cost excessive motion.
Secondly, questionnaire investigation is applied in order to sum up risk factors of construction projects, which are arranged orderly according to significance index in the end, following the seasons of the const overspent are analyzed out.
Thirdly, Monte Carlo is applied to one EPC project, in term of project's characteristic, appraisable index is confirmed firstly, and risk factors are elected, the numbers of appraisable index is computed out, then numerical value is analyzed.
Fourthly, risk joint management is brought forward based on maximal benefit of the project itself, including correlative theory foundation, the suggested principle and the distribution standard of the risk distribution.
This paper can be concluded that the technology and method of risk management and reward-punishment assessment system that was built up according to project implementation process should be the core of EPC project cost-control risk management.
(1)将项目成本控制原理应用到EPC项目中,首先制定了EPC项目成本控制的基准和成本测量系统,再对成本偏差进行分析,最后纠正成本偏差。
(2)在风险定性分析理论基础上,用问卷调查的方法归纳建设项目中的成本风险因素,列出重要性评价系数,按照从大到小的顺序将影响成本的风险因素罗列出来,最后分析了建设项目中成本超支的原因。
(3)Monte Carlo模拟方法应用到某EPC中,根据项目的性质,首先确定评价指标,在选择风险变量,确定其概率分布,在随机抽样的基础上计算出评价指标值。最后分析评价指标值,用来指导项目决策。
(4)从项目自身的角度,以项目效益最大化为原则,提出风险联合管理策略。并详细阐述了风险联合管理的理论依据、风险分配指导原则和分担原则。
本文的结论是:构建一个以项目实施流程为主线的风险管理技术、方法和责任分担奖惩体系,是EPC总承包工程项目成本控制方面风险管理的核心所在。
Engineering-Procurement-Construction ( EPC ) general contract projects have lots of uncertain risks, with the cost overspent, general contractor and owner face the serious loss. Therefore, based on cost control and risk management theory of the domestic and overseas general contract projects, the thesis uses control theory, system theory, decision-making theory to manage risks in EPC projects, in order to decrease the risks. These are the creation in the thesis.
Firstly, based on the process control mechanism, the theory of cost control is applied to EPC projects. The procedure in EPC projects is that: set down the standards of the cost control, establish cost measurement system, analyze cost motion and control cost excessive motion.
Secondly, questionnaire investigation is applied in order to sum up risk factors of construction projects, which are arranged orderly according to significance index in the end, following the seasons of the const overspent are analyzed out.
Thirdly, Monte Carlo is applied to one EPC project, in term of project's characteristic, appraisable index is confirmed firstly, and risk factors are elected, the numbers of appraisable index is computed out, then numerical value is analyzed.
Fourthly, risk joint management is brought forward based on maximal benefit of the project itself, including correlative theory foundation, the suggested principle and the distribution standard of the risk distribution.
This paper can be concluded that the technology and method of risk management and reward-punishment assessment system that was built up according to project implementation process should be the core of EPC project cost-control risk management.
引文
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[29]郭捷.工程项目风险分析与BT模式风险管理实证研究:[硕士论文].天津:天津大学,2004
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[38]钱肇基.风险管理.北京:中国电力出版社,1999
[39]Turnbaugh Lisa.Risk management on capitalects.Journal of Professional Issues in Engineering Education&Practice,2005,131(4):275-280
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[42]赵俊平.油气钻井工程项目风险分析与管理研究:[博士论文].大庆:大庆石油学院,2007
[43]吴慈生.事故损失的风险概率预测模型与应用研究.数理统计与管理,1997(1)
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[46]中国国际工程咨询公司.投资项日可行性研究指南.北京:中国电力出版社,2002.
[47]陶树人.技术经济学.北京:经济管理出版社,1999.
[48]刘清志,许学娜.Excel在模特卡罗模拟分析中的应用.中国管理信息化,2008,11(7)
[49]谢国瑞.概率论与数理统计.北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
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[51]李立文.工程总承包项目风险防范.电站系统工程,2005,21(3):61-62
[52]David Baccarini,Richard Archere.The risk ranking of projects:a methodology.International Journal of Project Management,2001,19(3):139-145
[53]袁振权,陈秀梅.EPC工程总承包项目的风险成因与风险化解.集团经济研究,2007(10):254-255
[54]吉寿松等.建设项目投资的风险与防范.大庆石油学院学报,2000,24(2):68-70
[55]M.Motiar Rahhman,M.Kumaraswamy.Risk Management Trends in the Construction Industry:Mobing towards Joint Risk Management.Engineering Construction and Architectural Management,2002,9(2):131-135
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[57]Levitt R.E.,Ashley D.B.,Logcher R.D..Allocating Risk and Incentive in Construction.Journal of the Construction Division,ASCE,1980,(9):26-27
[58]Nadel N.A.Allocation of Risks:A Contractor's View.Construction Risks and Liability Sharing.Conference Proceedings.American Society of Civil Engineers,1979
[59]M.Motiar Rahhman,M.M.Kumaraswamy.Joint Risk Management through Transactionally Efficient Relational Contracting.Construction Management and Economics,2002,(20):45-54
[60]郭俊.工程项目风险管理理论与方法研究:[硕士论文].武汉:武汉大学,2005
[61]苗敬毅,张俊花.投资项目风险评价中的模特卡洛技术.知识丛林,2006(8)
[62]杨为民.建筑工程项目施工承包方的风险管理研究:[硕士论文].天津:天津大学,2004
[63]于海丰.EPC总承包项目风险管理研究:[硕士论文].南京:东南大学,2007
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[2]徐蓉,王旭峰,杨勤.工程建设总承包管理.北京:北京科学技术出版社,2005
[3]刘建峰.中国EPC实施现状及切入方式分析.专家论坛,2006(6):36-37
[4]查京民.国际工程总承包项目管理.北京:化学工业出版社,2006
[5]Jaafari.Management of risks,Uncertainties and opportunities on projects:times for a fundamental shift.International Journal of project management,2001,19(2):89-101
[6]Knight.Risk,Uncertainty,and Profit.Boston,MA:Hart,Schaffner & Marx:Houghton Mifflin Conpany,1921
[7]王超.浅述EPC模式在建设项目中的重要性.中国建材,2007(7):97-98
[8]曹亚梅.浅析EPC总承包工程的投资风险对策.煤炭工程,2007(1):116-117
[9]刘尔烈.国际工程管理概论.天津:天津大学出版社,2003
[10]沈建明.项目风险管理.北京:机械工业出版社,2003
[11]成虎.工程项目管理.北京:高等教育出版社,2004
[12]Bayou,Mohamed E.Reinstein,Alan.《Formula for success:Target costing For Cost-plus pricing companies》.Journal of Cost Management,1997(9):29-31
[13]周伦淡.风险分析在政府工程成本控制中的应用:[硕士论文].重庆:重庆大学,2004
[14]王元明.建设项目成本风险分析及防范控制研究:[硕士论文].天津:河北工业大学,2005
[15]毕星,翟丽.项目管理.上海:复旦大学出版社,2000
[16]周四名.大型房建项目成本管理研究:[硕士论文].成都:西南交通大学,2003
[17]Ray Madachy.Using Software Cost Estimation Techniques in Risk Management.Software quality management magazine,2003,3(1):25-26
[18]韩国良.EPC模式特点与发展.内蒙古科技与经济,2007(12):91-93
[19]周森,王慧鑫,陈明.国际工程承包的一种新型合同--EPC合同.中国西部科技,2006(1):70-71
[20]高晓东.浅议工程总承包EPC模式及其应用.胜利油田职工大学学报,2004, 18(2):25-26
[21]王雪青.国际工程项目管理.北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2002
[22]Mark R.Greene,Oscar N.Serbein.Risk Management:Text and Case.Reston:Reston Publishing Company,1978
[23]克里斯·查普曼.工程项目风险管理.北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2000
[26]Hernandez L R.Integrated risk management in the Internet age.Risk Management,2000,47(6):29-32
[27]张崇涛.EPC总承包模式的风险管理.建筑管理现代化,2004(3):12-13
[28]雷琥.EPC模式下的项目风险管理:[硕士论文].天津:天津大学,2006
[29]郭捷.工程项目风险分析与BT模式风险管理实证研究:[硕士论文].天津:天津大学,2004
[31]贺铭.工程项目风险及风险评价方法.重庆交通学院学报,1994(5)33
[32]吴清.层次分析法中的分解.武汉城市建设学院学报,1996(3)
[33]傅鸿源.工程项目风险评价方法的研究.系统工程理论与实践,1995(10)
[34]安忠,朱烁,李卓伟.工程项目的风险分析与管理.中国港湾建设,1999(2)
[35]毛小玲.建筑工程项目管理技术问答.北京:中国电力出版社,2004
[36]郭仲伟.风险分析与决策.重庆:机械工业出版社,1987
[37]宋旭升.水电工程投资风险量化分析:[博士论文].北京:清华大学,2002
[38]钱肇基.风险管理.北京:中国电力出版社,1999
[39]Turnbaugh Lisa.Risk management on capitalects.Journal of Professional Issues in Engineering Education&Practice,2005,131(4):275-280
[40]闫家杰.模糊数学基础.郑州:河南教育出版社,1993
[41]闫兆林.AHP在概率风险评价中的应用.工业与防尘,1994(5)
[42]赵俊平.油气钻井工程项目风险分析与管理研究:[博士论文].大庆:大庆石油学院,2007
[43]吴慈生.事故损失的风险概率预测模型与应用研究.数理统计与管理,1997(1)
[44]郭仲伟.风险分析与决策.北京:机械工业出版社,1994
[45]Miccolis J,Shah S.Enterprise risk management:An analytic approach.Tillinghast-Towers Perrin Monograph,January 2000:1-12
[46]中国国际工程咨询公司.投资项日可行性研究指南.北京:中国电力出版社,2002.
[47]陶树人.技术经济学.北京:经济管理出版社,1999.
[48]刘清志,许学娜.Excel在模特卡罗模拟分析中的应用.中国管理信息化,2008,11(7)
[49]谢国瑞.概率论与数理统计.北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
[50]陈伟珂,黄艳敏.工程风险与工程保险.天津:天津大学出版社,2005
[51]李立文.工程总承包项目风险防范.电站系统工程,2005,21(3):61-62
[52]David Baccarini,Richard Archere.The risk ranking of projects:a methodology.International Journal of Project Management,2001,19(3):139-145
[53]袁振权,陈秀梅.EPC工程总承包项目的风险成因与风险化解.集团经济研究,2007(10):254-255
[54]吉寿松等.建设项目投资的风险与防范.大庆石油学院学报,2000,24(2):68-70
[55]M.Motiar Rahhman,M.Kumaraswamy.Risk Management Trends in the Construction Industry:Mobing towards Joint Risk Management.Engineering Construction and Architectural Management,2002,9(2):131-135
[56]Casey J.J.Identification and Nature of Risks in Construction Project:a Contractors perspective.Construction Risks and Liability Sharing.Conference Proceedings.American Society of Civil Engineers,1979
[57]Levitt R.E.,Ashley D.B.,Logcher R.D..Allocating Risk and Incentive in Construction.Journal of the Construction Division,ASCE,1980,(9):26-27
[58]Nadel N.A.Allocation of Risks:A Contractor's View.Construction Risks and Liability Sharing.Conference Proceedings.American Society of Civil Engineers,1979
[59]M.Motiar Rahhman,M.M.Kumaraswamy.Joint Risk Management through Transactionally Efficient Relational Contracting.Construction Management and Economics,2002,(20):45-54
[60]郭俊.工程项目风险管理理论与方法研究:[硕士论文].武汉:武汉大学,2005
[61]苗敬毅,张俊花.投资项目风险评价中的模特卡洛技术.知识丛林,2006(8)
[62]杨为民.建筑工程项目施工承包方的风险管理研究:[硕士论文].天津:天津大学,2004
[63]于海丰.EPC总承包项目风险管理研究:[硕士论文].南京:东南大学,2007
[64]James A,Bent.Aipplied Cost and Schedule Control.Marcel Deker,New York,1982
[65]周仁清.EPC总承包管理存在的问题与对策.石油化工建设,2006,28(2):10-13
[66]McWilliams,Jr.Richard M,Heinz.Risk Management and Insurance.MCRAWHILL Book Company,1985
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