FTA视角下美国贸易政策的政治经济分析
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摘要
贸易政策是一种特殊的公共产品，由政府抉择但却其形成却受到诸多因素的影响；贸易的政治经济学是国际政治经济学的一个重要分支，既涉及到经济学的贸易理论，又涉及到政治学和国际关系学相关研究领域的内容。本文从Grossman和Helpman贸易政策的特殊利益政治学理论的研究入手，选取当前全球贸易自由化进程中发展相对成熟的美国自由贸易协定（FTA）框架作为研究视角，对美国贸易政策形成的双层博弈体系进行政治经济学理论、实证和经验分析。
在全球贸易自由化进程中FTA的发展日益高涨，主要经济体纷纷展开FTA战略博弈，研究发展相对领先的美国FTA的发展历史、贸易政策和战略形式，对于把握当前和今后较长时期全球贸易发展趋势具有较大的现实意义；目前国内对贸易政策的政治经济分析的理解相对局限，对贸易政策的政治经济学理论的系统介绍和实证应用成为本文理论研究任务之一；在贸易政策的政治经济学研究领域中，较长时期的贸易政策的形成理论都集中在贸易关税率的研究上。如何更好地从FTA视角对贸易政策选择进行研究成为当前全球FTA蓬勃发展形势下需要关注的重要理论问题，也是本文理论研究的意义所在。当前的全球局势日益复杂，对一国宏观贸易政策的研究必须联系其所处的国际性和区域性的政治、安全和外交环境，本文将FTA视角下美国贸易政策的研究与其当前全球外交战略相结合从而更加深入理解美国FTA战略博弈的背景和发展情形。
基于上述，本文将FTA视角下美国贸易政策的政治经济分析体系构建为包括FTA政策形成的双层博弈理论分析、美韩FTA例外行业为例的实证分析、FTA政策的战略博弈性分析三个层面的内容。这是本文第四、五、六章的内容。第一章为导论部分，主要解释了本文研究的选题背景、研究意义和全文的研究思路；第二章为文献综述，对贸易政策相关理论和FTA视角下的贸易政策的政治经济学理论进行了较为全面的总结；第三章分析了美国FTA的发展和特点；第七章对全文研究进行总结，并借鉴美国FTA战略经验针对中国FTA发展现状提出相应的政策建议。
通过理论和实证的政治经济分析，本文得到的主要结论是：
1．从理论影响机制来看，尽管FTA政策的双层博弈理论对贸易政策的设定附加了更为严苛的条件，但其形成中的主要影响因素仍然可以被描述为关税贸易政策理论体系中的解释变量：进口渗透率等（进口国产量／进口量；出口国产量／出口量）以此来描述双边贸易中行业的生产、贸易的相对实力；行业特殊利益集团的组织性用来衡量贸易政策内生形成中的行业集团对政府政策施加的政治性影响；用进口需求弹性（或出口供给弹性）衡量政府提供贸易政策的成本；从理论研究对象来看，将被解释对象从离散的是否参与FTA的政策选择转向参与FTA后如何确定例外行业集合的研究；从理论应用来看，关键的区别体现为实证分析模型的构建中被解释变量使用虚拟变量0和1来描述是否属于例外行业集合；本文使用美韩FTA作为实例对相关理论结论进行了验证。
2．本文以时间为纵向坐标，地域为横向坐标，对美国FTA发展进程进行二维梳理，从中清晰看出美国FTA发展的多重目标性和战略布局性，对美国FTA的发展特点和贸易政策的演进进行了总结；
3．立足奥巴马上台后“巧实力”外交战略在亚太地区内的高调回归，基于FTA战略是外交政策重要组成部分的理论和现实，以TPP战略为例深入剖析了美国亚太地区和全球FTA战略多重目标性、灵活博弈性和区域性特性等诸多特点。
Trade policy is a kind of special public good，because it is chosen by thegovernment and is resulted by so many related factors．Political economy of trade isan important branch of the international political economy，and it is related with thetheory of economy and trade and the theory of politics and international relationshipas well．In this paper，we built our research on the industrial special group politics ofGrossman and Helpman（1994；1995；1996）’s theory or simply called the endogenoustariff theory，chose comparatively mature FTA trade policy of US as the main objectand used the political economy theory as the tool to analyse the two level game－playing system of the policy formation．
The main points that the research was focused on are listed as below：
In the course of global trade liberalization，FTA gradually becomes the mainrepresentative arrangement and the main coutries in the world began to establish theisown FTA strategy．So it is meaningful for us to study the development，trade policyand stategy of the U．S．FTA as the basic of the futural trend analysis of global trade．
We found that the political economy theory of trade policy has been developedmaturely by the review of the related theory，but the domestic political economyanalysis of trade policy is still at a comparatively primary level，we try to clarify theanalytical tool of the political economy and use it practically in this paper．
In the studying frame of the trade policy，it’s always recogonized the trade policyas a continual variable and always described by tariff rate．There is a different wayunder FTA policy frame，the policy is whether the government chose to join in theFTA，the policy of yes or no is really a dispersed variable and we chose to study thepolicy from the view of whether the industry is concluded into the set of exclusionindustries in this paper．
Nowadays the study of economy and trade growth should be put into the globalenvironment，so if we want to know clearly about the FTA stategy of U．S．，we mustknow its foreign policy in the gobal developmental system firstly．
In order to make the reseaching points above come true，we built a political economy analyzing system in this paper，and it is composing of several parts:thelogical analysis of the development of U．S．FTA；the theoretical analysis of FTA twolevel game playing theory；the empirical analysis of Korus FTA and the stategicalanalysis of U．S．FTA strategy．we will provide the detailed analysis blocks separatelyin Chapter3to Chapter6．We will introduce the background，the objects and thearrangement of this paper in Chapter1，make a comprehensive review of theresearching papers of the trade policy，especially the FTA policy in Chapter2andmake a detailed conclusion and provide some politial suggestions in the last chapter．
The general conclusions of this paper are as following：
1．From the theoretical view，although it is supposed more strict restraint underFTA policy frame，but we can conclude that the main policy－affecting factors arestill the same as the endogenous tariff theory:using the import penetration rate（valueadded／import）to describe the relative productive power of the industry in thebilateral trade；using the variable of whether there exists lobbying organization todescribe the political power of the industry；using the import demand elasticity todescribe the cost of the provided trade policy．
2．We concluded the developmental rule of U．S．FTA and FTA policy by thelogical analysis of the history of U．S．FTA development and we complete theconlusion by tracing time and space．
3．We conluded the main characteristics of U．S．FTA strategy．In order toachieve the aim，we first analysed U．S．President Barrack Obama’s smart powerforeign policy and found that the FTA policy is truly the smart power policy carriedout in the foreign trade domain．In the analytical course of the smart power policy wesummarize the detailed characteristics of U．S．FTA strategy．
在全球贸易自由化进程中FTA的发展日益高涨，主要经济体纷纷展开FTA战略博弈，研究发展相对领先的美国FTA的发展历史、贸易政策和战略形式，对于把握当前和今后较长时期全球贸易发展趋势具有较大的现实意义；目前国内对贸易政策的政治经济分析的理解相对局限，对贸易政策的政治经济学理论的系统介绍和实证应用成为本文理论研究任务之一；在贸易政策的政治经济学研究领域中，较长时期的贸易政策的形成理论都集中在贸易关税率的研究上。如何更好地从FTA视角对贸易政策选择进行研究成为当前全球FTA蓬勃发展形势下需要关注的重要理论问题，也是本文理论研究的意义所在。当前的全球局势日益复杂，对一国宏观贸易政策的研究必须联系其所处的国际性和区域性的政治、安全和外交环境，本文将FTA视角下美国贸易政策的研究与其当前全球外交战略相结合从而更加深入理解美国FTA战略博弈的背景和发展情形。
基于上述，本文将FTA视角下美国贸易政策的政治经济分析体系构建为包括FTA政策形成的双层博弈理论分析、美韩FTA例外行业为例的实证分析、FTA政策的战略博弈性分析三个层面的内容。这是本文第四、五、六章的内容。第一章为导论部分，主要解释了本文研究的选题背景、研究意义和全文的研究思路；第二章为文献综述，对贸易政策相关理论和FTA视角下的贸易政策的政治经济学理论进行了较为全面的总结；第三章分析了美国FTA的发展和特点；第七章对全文研究进行总结，并借鉴美国FTA战略经验针对中国FTA发展现状提出相应的政策建议。
通过理论和实证的政治经济分析，本文得到的主要结论是：
1．从理论影响机制来看，尽管FTA政策的双层博弈理论对贸易政策的设定附加了更为严苛的条件，但其形成中的主要影响因素仍然可以被描述为关税贸易政策理论体系中的解释变量：进口渗透率等（进口国产量／进口量；出口国产量／出口量）以此来描述双边贸易中行业的生产、贸易的相对实力；行业特殊利益集团的组织性用来衡量贸易政策内生形成中的行业集团对政府政策施加的政治性影响；用进口需求弹性（或出口供给弹性）衡量政府提供贸易政策的成本；从理论研究对象来看，将被解释对象从离散的是否参与FTA的政策选择转向参与FTA后如何确定例外行业集合的研究；从理论应用来看，关键的区别体现为实证分析模型的构建中被解释变量使用虚拟变量0和1来描述是否属于例外行业集合；本文使用美韩FTA作为实例对相关理论结论进行了验证。
2．本文以时间为纵向坐标，地域为横向坐标，对美国FTA发展进程进行二维梳理，从中清晰看出美国FTA发展的多重目标性和战略布局性，对美国FTA的发展特点和贸易政策的演进进行了总结；
3．立足奥巴马上台后“巧实力”外交战略在亚太地区内的高调回归，基于FTA战略是外交政策重要组成部分的理论和现实，以TPP战略为例深入剖析了美国亚太地区和全球FTA战略多重目标性、灵活博弈性和区域性特性等诸多特点。
Trade policy is a kind of special public good，because it is chosen by thegovernment and is resulted by so many related factors．Political economy of trade isan important branch of the international political economy，and it is related with thetheory of economy and trade and the theory of politics and international relationshipas well．In this paper，we built our research on the industrial special group politics ofGrossman and Helpman（1994；1995；1996）’s theory or simply called the endogenoustariff theory，chose comparatively mature FTA trade policy of US as the main objectand used the political economy theory as the tool to analyse the two level game－playing system of the policy formation．
The main points that the research was focused on are listed as below：
In the course of global trade liberalization，FTA gradually becomes the mainrepresentative arrangement and the main coutries in the world began to establish theisown FTA strategy．So it is meaningful for us to study the development，trade policyand stategy of the U．S．FTA as the basic of the futural trend analysis of global trade．
We found that the political economy theory of trade policy has been developedmaturely by the review of the related theory，but the domestic political economyanalysis of trade policy is still at a comparatively primary level，we try to clarify theanalytical tool of the political economy and use it practically in this paper．
In the studying frame of the trade policy，it’s always recogonized the trade policyas a continual variable and always described by tariff rate．There is a different wayunder FTA policy frame，the policy is whether the government chose to join in theFTA，the policy of yes or no is really a dispersed variable and we chose to study thepolicy from the view of whether the industry is concluded into the set of exclusionindustries in this paper．
Nowadays the study of economy and trade growth should be put into the globalenvironment，so if we want to know clearly about the FTA stategy of U．S．，we mustknow its foreign policy in the gobal developmental system firstly．
In order to make the reseaching points above come true，we built a political economy analyzing system in this paper，and it is composing of several parts:thelogical analysis of the development of U．S．FTA；the theoretical analysis of FTA twolevel game playing theory；the empirical analysis of Korus FTA and the stategicalanalysis of U．S．FTA strategy．we will provide the detailed analysis blocks separatelyin Chapter3to Chapter6．We will introduce the background，the objects and thearrangement of this paper in Chapter1，make a comprehensive review of theresearching papers of the trade policy，especially the FTA policy in Chapter2andmake a detailed conclusion and provide some politial suggestions in the last chapter．
The general conclusions of this paper are as following：
1．From the theoretical view，although it is supposed more strict restraint underFTA policy frame，but we can conclude that the main policy－affecting factors arestill the same as the endogenous tariff theory:using the import penetration rate（valueadded／import）to describe the relative productive power of the industry in thebilateral trade；using the variable of whether there exists lobbying organization todescribe the political power of the industry；using the import demand elasticity todescribe the cost of the provided trade policy．
2．We concluded the developmental rule of U．S．FTA and FTA policy by thelogical analysis of the history of U．S．FTA development and we complete theconlusion by tracing time and space．
3．We conluded the main characteristics of U．S．FTA strategy．In order toachieve the aim，we first analysed U．S．President Barrack Obama’s smart powerforeign policy and found that the FTA policy is truly the smart power policy carriedout in the foreign trade domain．In the analytical course of the smart power policy wesummarize the detailed characteristics of U．S．FTA strategy．
引文
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69刘海云，吴韧强．关税结构的政治经济学解释—基于保护待售模型的博弈分析．经济学（季刊）．2007．10
70高国伟．美国众议院对自由贸易协议的态度：一个实证研究．国际经贸探索．2008．02
71李坤望，王孝松．待售的美国对华反倾销税：基于“保护待售”模型的实证分析．经济科学．2008．02
72李坤望，王孝松．美国对华贸易政策的决策和形成因素——以PNTR议案投票结果为例的政治经济分析．经济学（季刊）．2009．01
73郭杰．美国对华反倾销成因的政治经济学研究．复旦大学博士学位论文．2011
74蔡宏波，黄建忠．国外自由贸易协定研究新进展．国际贸易问题．2008．07
75杨红强，武亮．美国自由贸易协定战略安排与中国竞争地位研究．现代财经．2006．01
76李富有，何娟．美国自由贸易协定战略及中国的应对措施．西安财经学院学报．2007．05
77孙玉红．跨区域双边自由贸易协定的政治经济动机分析．世界经济与政治．2008．07
78朱颖．美国全球自由贸易协定战略．上海师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）．2008．09
79朱颖．自由贸易协定与美国对中东战略．西亚非洲．2009．04
80李廷，高斌．原产地规则对纺织品贸易影响的实证分析——以US-DR-CAFTA自由贸易协定对中国的影响为例．华东师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）．2008．02．
81李皓．国际垂直专业化贸易下自由贸易协定的可行性分析——基于政治经济学的视角．生产力研究．2008．21
82崔日明，李兵，张楠．韩美自由贸易协定对东北亚区域经济合作的影响．2008．01
83张玉山，刘维．韩美自由贸易协定对我国的影响与对策．经济纵横．2008．06
84崔荣伟．新贸易政策对美韩自由贸易协定的影响．美国研究．2010．04
85李丽，陈迅，邵兵家．韩美自由贸易协定全面实施对中国经济的影响．山西财经大学学报．2008．08
86杨欣，武拉平，徐锐钊．美韩自由贸易协定对中韩农产品贸易的潜在影响．中国农村经济．2010．07
922001Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service．
93Steel Trap：How Subsidies and Protectionism Weaken the U．S．Steel Industry．Cato's Center for Trade PolicyStudies．Trade Briefing Paper No．14
94Vincent Crawford，Joel Sobel．Strategic Information Transmission．Econometrica，EconometricSociety．vol．50．1982
95Bernheim，Michael D．Whinston．Menu Auctions，Resource Allocation and Economic Influence．TheQuarterly Journal of Economics．MIT Press．vol．101．1986
96Bernheim，Michael D．Whinston．Menu Auctions，Resource Allocation and Economic Influence．TheQuarterly Journal of Economics．MIT Press．vol．101．1986
97Gene M．Grossman，Elhanan Helpman．The Politics of Free Trade Agreements．The American EconomicReview．Vol．85．1995
98Kishore Gawande，Pablo Sanguinetti．Exclusions For Sale：Evidence on the Grossman-Helpman Model of FreeTrade Agreements．2005
101Modifications to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States to Implement the United States-KoreaFree Trade Agreement．USITC Publication4308．2012
102Senhadji Abdelhak．Time Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations：A Cross-CountryAnalysis．IMF Staff Papers．Vol．45．1998
103Suzanne Nossel：Smart Power． Foreign Affairs，March/April2004．
104Richard L．Armitage，Joseph S．Nye Jr．：A Smarter，More Secure America．
105Hillary Clinton's Confirmation Opening Statement：I look forward to working with all of you to renewAmerica's leadership through diplomacy that enhances our security，advances our interests and reflects our values．
106Hillary Clinton's Confirmation Opening Statement：I believe that American leadership has been wanting，butis still wanted．
107We must use what has been called “smart power”，the full range of tools at our disposal——diplomatic，economic，military，political，legal and cultural——picking the right tool or combination of tools，for eachsituation．
108We must use what has been called“smart power”，the full range of tools at our disposal——diplomatic，economic，military，political，legal and cultural——picking the right tool or combination of tools，for eachsituation．
109Remarks by Ambassador Ron Kirk at the Washington International Trade Association．December15，2009
110USTR Ron Kirk Comments on Trans-Pacific Partnership Talks．June18，2010．The Trans-Pacific Partnershipis a launch pad for the Obama Administration’s intention to dramatically increase American exports to theAsia-Pacific and create good jobs here at home．
113Obama Embraces Trans-Pacific Partnership．C．Fred Bergsten，Edited transcript，recorded November16，2009．Peterson Institute for International Economics．
114TPP Assessment Study：Work in Progress．Peter A．Petri，Michael Plummer，and Fan Zhai．October20，2010．The study is scheduled to be completed in spring2011．
116Getting to the FTAAP via the TPP．Jeffrey J．Schott．PIIE-Japan Economic Foundation Conference：ATrans-Pacific Partnership and the Future of the Asia Pacific Region．October25，2010．Peterson Institute forInternational Economics．
117The Long-Term International Economic Position of the United States．C．Fred Bergsten．ISBN paper．2009
121中国与非洲经济相互依存度与日俱增。文章来源：人民网，2012年3月31日。
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106Hillary Clinton's Confirmation Opening Statement：I believe that American leadership has been wanting，butis still wanted．
107We must use what has been called “smart power”，the full range of tools at our disposal——diplomatic，economic，military，political，legal and cultural——picking the right tool or combination of tools，for eachsituation．
108We must use what has been called“smart power”，the full range of tools at our disposal——diplomatic，economic，military，political，legal and cultural——picking the right tool or combination of tools，for eachsituation．
109Remarks by Ambassador Ron Kirk at the Washington International Trade Association．December15，2009
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