生产率增长测算方法的系统研究
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摘要
生产率增长是经济增长之源，对生产率增长测算方法的研究具有重要意义。在本文之前，国内外关于生产率问题的研究浩如烟海，但较少有从综合的、系统的角度对生产率增长测算方法进行的专门研究。本文定位于生产率增长测算的应用方法的研究，在全面考察各种生产率增长测算方法的基础上，对这些建立在不同测算思想基础上的方法进行了梳理、归类、剖析、点评，对各种方法之间的异同进行了比较，概括了生产率增长测算的方法体系，考察了生产率增长测算工作中通常会遇到的两个综合悖论，探讨了生产率增长测算与SNA的结合。
总的来说，本文的研究注重引入新资料、提出新观点、从新的角度对问题进行新探索，在确保方法体系完善的前提下，从综合的、系统的角度研究生产率增长测算方法。论文的主要内容分为五章。第一章介绍本课题研究的背景、意义和特点，对研究过程涉及的几对相关概念进行了界定。这是生产率增长测算方法研究的起点。作为论文的主体部分，第二、三、四、五章对生产率增长测算方法进行了系统研究。根据各种方法测算生产率增长的背景、思想、理论发展成熟程度及在实践中的应用情况，生产率增长测算方法可分为主流方法和其它方法两大类，其中主流方法又分为经济计量学方法和非参数方法两类。本文第二章研究生产率增长测算的经济计量学方法，其中介绍了国内外研究和实践中应用均比较广泛的生产函数法和随机边界分析法，并引入了半参数方法、工具变量法等几种目前国内很少用于生产率增长测算的方法。第三章是对非参数生产率增长测算方法的研究，着重对数据包络分析法、指数法、基于Malquist生产率指数的边界分析法、增长核算法进行了系统分析。第四章研究生产率增长测算的其它方法，主要考察了普通最小二乘法、原子论方法、投入产出法、指数体系因素分析法、增长曲线模型法在生产率增长测算中的应用，并在对这些方法进行剖析的基础上，对前人研究进行补充。第五章是对生产率增长测算方法的系统考察，站在更高的角度认识生产率增长测算问题：这一章的内容分为三节，包括生产率增长测算方法的比较和分析、生产率综合悖论问题、生产率增长测算与SNA。这一章既是生产率增长测算方法论研究的不可分割部分，也是第二、三、四章内容的进一步概括和升华。
Productivity growth is the foundmental resource of economic growth, and research on application methods of productivity growth is of great importance. There are tremendous amount of research on productivity, among which few is specialized in productivity growth measurement method from synthetic and systematic angle. Under such background, this paper aims at methods of productivity growth measurement. On base of all-round inspection about various productivity growth measurement methods, this paper studies these methods, which are based on different measurement ideas, puts them in order and classifies them, probes into and evaluates them. The paper also compares different methods, summarizes methodological system of productivity growth measurement, studies two aggregation paradoxes generally met in productivity measurement practice, discusses issues of ingregation of productivity growth measurement and SNA.
Generally speaking, this paper pays attention to introduction of new materials, submittion of new viewpoints, conduction of new exploration from new angle, and study on methods of productivity growth measurement synthetically and systematically in conditon of perfect system.
Concretely speaking, this paper consists of five chapters.
The first chapter shows necessary background, importance and characteristics of this research, and reviews several pairs of relevant conceptions. This is the start-point of study on prodcutvity growth measurement methods.
As the main part of the paper, Chapter Two to Chapter Five systematically studies methods of productivity growth measurement. According to background and ideas, mature degree of theory development and application in practice, productivity growth measurement methods may be clssified into Mainstream Methods, which is composed of Econometric Methods and Non-Parameters Methods, and Other Methods. In Chapter Two, we studies Econometric Methods, introduces Production Function Method and Stochastic Frontier Analysis Method, which are widely used in research and practice domestic and abroad, as well as Semi-Parameter Method and Instrument Variables Method, which are seldom used to measure productivity growth in China. Chapter Three is on Non-Parameter Methods. In this chapter, we studies Data Envolopment Analysis Method, Index Method, Frontier Analysis Method Based On Malquist Productivity Index, and Growth Accounting Method. Chapter Four studies Other Methods for productivity growth measurement, such as Ordinary Least Squares Method, Atomistic Method, Input-Output Method, Index System Factor Analysis Method, and Growth Curve Model Method. On base of probe into these methods, we give some supplement to predeseccers' research. Chapter Five stands in a higher angle, systematically studies methods of productivity growth measurement. It has three sections, which comparatively analysis method system of productivity growth measurement, studies productivity paradoxes, and probes into issues on ingragation of productivity growth measurement and SNA. This chapter is an indispensable part of methodological research on productivity growth measurment, as well as further summarization and sublimation for Chapter Two to Chater Four.
总的来说，本文的研究注重引入新资料、提出新观点、从新的角度对问题进行新探索，在确保方法体系完善的前提下，从综合的、系统的角度研究生产率增长测算方法。论文的主要内容分为五章。第一章介绍本课题研究的背景、意义和特点，对研究过程涉及的几对相关概念进行了界定。这是生产率增长测算方法研究的起点。作为论文的主体部分，第二、三、四、五章对生产率增长测算方法进行了系统研究。根据各种方法测算生产率增长的背景、思想、理论发展成熟程度及在实践中的应用情况，生产率增长测算方法可分为主流方法和其它方法两大类，其中主流方法又分为经济计量学方法和非参数方法两类。本文第二章研究生产率增长测算的经济计量学方法，其中介绍了国内外研究和实践中应用均比较广泛的生产函数法和随机边界分析法，并引入了半参数方法、工具变量法等几种目前国内很少用于生产率增长测算的方法。第三章是对非参数生产率增长测算方法的研究，着重对数据包络分析法、指数法、基于Malquist生产率指数的边界分析法、增长核算法进行了系统分析。第四章研究生产率增长测算的其它方法，主要考察了普通最小二乘法、原子论方法、投入产出法、指数体系因素分析法、增长曲线模型法在生产率增长测算中的应用，并在对这些方法进行剖析的基础上，对前人研究进行补充。第五章是对生产率增长测算方法的系统考察，站在更高的角度认识生产率增长测算问题：这一章的内容分为三节，包括生产率增长测算方法的比较和分析、生产率综合悖论问题、生产率增长测算与SNA。这一章既是生产率增长测算方法论研究的不可分割部分，也是第二、三、四章内容的进一步概括和升华。
Productivity growth is the foundmental resource of economic growth, and research on application methods of productivity growth is of great importance. There are tremendous amount of research on productivity, among which few is specialized in productivity growth measurement method from synthetic and systematic angle. Under such background, this paper aims at methods of productivity growth measurement. On base of all-round inspection about various productivity growth measurement methods, this paper studies these methods, which are based on different measurement ideas, puts them in order and classifies them, probes into and evaluates them. The paper also compares different methods, summarizes methodological system of productivity growth measurement, studies two aggregation paradoxes generally met in productivity measurement practice, discusses issues of ingregation of productivity growth measurement and SNA.
Generally speaking, this paper pays attention to introduction of new materials, submittion of new viewpoints, conduction of new exploration from new angle, and study on methods of productivity growth measurement synthetically and systematically in conditon of perfect system.
Concretely speaking, this paper consists of five chapters.
The first chapter shows necessary background, importance and characteristics of this research, and reviews several pairs of relevant conceptions. This is the start-point of study on prodcutvity growth measurement methods.
As the main part of the paper, Chapter Two to Chapter Five systematically studies methods of productivity growth measurement. According to background and ideas, mature degree of theory development and application in practice, productivity growth measurement methods may be clssified into Mainstream Methods, which is composed of Econometric Methods and Non-Parameters Methods, and Other Methods. In Chapter Two, we studies Econometric Methods, introduces Production Function Method and Stochastic Frontier Analysis Method, which are widely used in research and practice domestic and abroad, as well as Semi-Parameter Method and Instrument Variables Method, which are seldom used to measure productivity growth in China. Chapter Three is on Non-Parameter Methods. In this chapter, we studies Data Envolopment Analysis Method, Index Method, Frontier Analysis Method Based On Malquist Productivity Index, and Growth Accounting Method. Chapter Four studies Other Methods for productivity growth measurement, such as Ordinary Least Squares Method, Atomistic Method, Input-Output Method, Index System Factor Analysis Method, and Growth Curve Model Method. On base of probe into these methods, we give some supplement to predeseccers' research. Chapter Five stands in a higher angle, systematically studies methods of productivity growth measurement. It has three sections, which comparatively analysis method system of productivity growth measurement, studies productivity paradoxes, and probes into issues on ingragation of productivity growth measurement and SNA. This chapter is an indispensable part of methodological research on productivity growth measurment, as well as further summarization and sublimation for Chapter Two to Chater Four.
引文
① 从比较综合的角度进行的研究并不是完全没有，如Johannes Van Biesebroeck(2003)的“Robustness of Productivity Estimates"，NBER Working Paper 10303等。虽然他们的研究只是从估计量稳健性的角度进行了考察，但确实是从“综合”的角度进行的研究。
② Kevin J. Fox, "Problems with (Dis) Aggregating Productivity, and Another Productivity Paradox", School of Economics Discussion Paper,
① 亨利·威廉·斯皮革格著，《经济思想的成长》，晏智杰等译，中国社会科学出版社，1999年第10期。
② 弗朗斯瓦·魁奈，《魁奈经济著作选集》，北京：商务印书馆，1997年。
① 国际劳工局劳动统计学家国际会议第七届会议决议。
② 丁伯根在1942年发表了一篇有关生产率测算问题的重要论文：Tinbergen，Jan(1942)，“Zur Theorie der langfrstigen Wirtschaftsentwicklung”，Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv．Band 55：1．p511～549；English translation，“On the theory Of trend movements"，in Jan Tinbergen，Selected Papers，eds．，L H Klassen，L M Koyck and H J WiReveen，Amsterdam,：North Holland，1959。在这篇文章中，他提出了四个国家、时间跨度为四十四年的要素生产率估计。但是这篇文章长期被忽略。见John Kendrick and Vaccara B N，“New Developments In Productivity Measurement And Analysis，Studies in Income and Wealth”，vol 44．Chicalzo：Unjversity of Chjcago Press，1980。
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① 这里的叙述主要是为说明增长核算的标准框架，因此为容易理解和表述简单见，采用的符号和叙述过程与Solow(1957)略有差异，没有照抄Solow(1957)的原始公式和推导。
① 见 Diewert, W. Erwin. (1976) , "Exact and Superlative Index Numbers", Journal of Econometrics 4, p115～146.
① 参见Paul Schreyer, "Capital Stocks, Capital Services and Multi-Factor Productivity Measures", OECD Economic Studies, No. 37, 2003/2。
① Naodhaus William, "Alternative Methods for Measuring Productivity Growth", NBER working paper 8095, 2001。
① 虽然线性生产函数也是生产函数的一种，但由于(正如下文所述)这种模型适用的情形在经济现实中很少出现，因此第二章第一节《生产函数法》没有将这种生产函数纳入分析。
② 武义青，《基于线性函数的生产率测定方法》，《数量经济技术经济研究》1995年第6期。
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① Fisher, "The Purchasing Power of Money", First Edition, New York 1911.
① 卡尔．马克思著，中共中央马克思恩格斯列宁斯大林著作编译局译。《资本论》(第一卷)，北京：经济科学出版社，1975年。
① 本部分内容主要介绍了佟仁城研究员的研究成果，介绍的同时进行了整理。参见佟仁城，《部门全要素生产率及相互作用分析》，《系统工程理论与实践》1993年第11期。
① 该表摘自李花菊《劳动力投入产出表的编制方法及分析应用》，《国民经济核算方法问题研究(第七集)》。
① 见第四章第四节《指数体系因素分析法》。
① 卡尔·马克思著，中共中央马克思恩格斯列宁斯大林著作编译局译，《资本论》(第一卷)，北京：经济科学出版社，1987年，第494页。
① 韩雪峰，《技术进步对经济增长作用指数测算法初探》，《黑龙江财专学报》1995年第2期。
① 温素彬，《经济增长因素分析——指数分析法的一种运用》，《统计与信息论坛》1997年第1期。
① 董逢谷，《TFP的指数体系因素分析估计及其新界定》，《财经研究》2001年第6期。
① Naodhaus William，“Alternative Methods for Measuring Productivity Growth"，NBER workingpaper 8095，2001。分解过程的推导见附录Ⅰ《诺德豪斯对生产率增长的分解》。
① [荷]范·杜因，《经济长波与创新》，上海：上海译文出版社，第47、48页。
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② 张跃，《Logistic曲线模型和Gompertz曲线模型的修正》，《西南交通大学学报》1997年第2期。
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② Kevin J. Fox, "Problems with (Dis) Aggregating Productivity, and Another Productivity Paradox", School of Economics Discussion Paper,
① 亨利·威廉·斯皮革格著，《经济思想的成长》，晏智杰等译，中国社会科学出版社，1999年第10期。
② 弗朗斯瓦·魁奈，《魁奈经济著作选集》，北京：商务印书馆，1997年。
① 国际劳工局劳动统计学家国际会议第七届会议决议。
② 丁伯根在1942年发表了一篇有关生产率测算问题的重要论文：Tinbergen，Jan(1942)，“Zur Theorie der langfrstigen Wirtschaftsentwicklung”，Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv．Band 55：1．p511～549；English translation，“On the theory Of trend movements"，in Jan Tinbergen，Selected Papers，eds．，L H Klassen，L M Koyck and H J WiReveen，Amsterdam,：North Holland，1959。在这篇文章中，他提出了四个国家、时间跨度为四十四年的要素生产率估计。但是这篇文章长期被忽略。见John Kendrick and Vaccara B N，“New Developments In Productivity Measurement And Analysis，Studies in Income and Wealth”，vol 44．Chicalzo：Unjversity of Chjcago Press，1980。
③ Solow Robert (1957) , "Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function", Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 39, p312-320.
④ Dale Jorgenson and Zvi Griliches, "the Explaination of Productivity Change", Review of Economic Studies, 34 (July) , 249-280, 1967。
⑤ W Erwin Diewert, Ann Marie Smith, "Productivity Measurement for a Distribution Firm", The Journal of Productivity Analysis 5, p335～347, 1994; W Erwin Diewert, Kevin J Fox, "Can Measurement Error Explain the Productivity Paradox?", Canadian Journal of Economics 32, p251～280, 1999.3; W Erwin Diewert, "Productivity Measurement Using Differences Rather Than Ratios: A Note", University of New South Wales Working Paper, January, 2000; W Erwin Diewert, "Which (Old) Ideas on Productivity Measurement are Ready to Use?", New Developments in Productivity Analysis, Charles R Hulten, Edwin R Dean and Michael J Harper (eds.), Chicago: University of Chicago Press, p85～101,2001; W Erwin Diewert, Bert M Balk, "A Characterization of the T6rnqvist Price Index", Economic Letters 72, Elsevier Science, p279～281, 2001; W Erwin Diewert, Alice O Nakamura, "Index Number Concepts, Measures and Decompositions of Productivity Growth", Journal of Productivity Analysis, Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, 2003, p127～159.
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③ Solow Robert (1957) , "Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function", Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 39, p312～320。
④ Fabricant Solomon, "Basic facts on productivity change", National Bureau of Economic Research (New York) 1959.
⑤ Edward F Denison (1962) , "The Sources of Economic Growth in the United States and the Alternative Before Us", New York: Committee for Economic Development, 1962。
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① SNA(1993)。
② 关于这一问题的详细讨论见本文第五章第二节《生产率综合悖论问题》。
① 成邦文等，《C—D生产函数的一个重要性质》，《数量经济技术经济研究》2001年第7期。
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① 这里的叙述主要是为说明增长核算的标准框架，因此为容易理解和表述简单见，采用的符号和叙述过程与Solow(1957)略有差异，没有照抄Solow(1957)的原始公式和推导。
① 见 Diewert, W. Erwin. (1976) , "Exact and Superlative Index Numbers", Journal of Econometrics 4, p115～146.
① 参见Paul Schreyer, "Capital Stocks, Capital Services and Multi-Factor Productivity Measures", OECD Economic Studies, No. 37, 2003/2。
① Naodhaus William, "Alternative Methods for Measuring Productivity Growth", NBER working paper 8095, 2001。
① 虽然线性生产函数也是生产函数的一种，但由于(正如下文所述)这种模型适用的情形在经济现实中很少出现，因此第二章第一节《生产函数法》没有将这种生产函数纳入分析。
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① 本部分内容主要介绍了佟仁城研究员的研究成果，介绍的同时进行了整理。参见佟仁城，《部门全要素生产率及相互作用分析》，《系统工程理论与实践》1993年第11期。
① 该表摘自李花菊《劳动力投入产出表的编制方法及分析应用》，《国民经济核算方法问题研究(第七集)》。
① 见第四章第四节《指数体系因素分析法》。
① 卡尔·马克思著，中共中央马克思恩格斯列宁斯大林著作编译局译，《资本论》(第一卷)，北京：经济科学出版社，1987年，第494页。
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① Naodhaus William，“Alternative Methods for Measuring Productivity Growth"，NBER workingpaper 8095，2001。分解过程的推导见附录Ⅰ《诺德豪斯对生产率增长的分解》。
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