能值生态足迹的灰色预测模型及应用研究
|
摘要
可持续发展自提出以来便受到广泛关注,二十世纪产生了两种影响较大和应用较广的可持续发展评价方法：生态足迹法和能值分析法。基于这两种方法的思想,赵晟等提出基于能值分析理论的生态足迹模型,把能值分析方法与传统生态足迹方法框架相结合。
本论文将生态足迹模型、能值理论和灰色系统有关理论相结合,将灰色预测模型和灰色关联分析应用于可持续发展的研究中。灰色预测模型用来预测某一地区的生态足迹和生态承载力变化情况,进而研究该区域的可持续发展状况；灰关联度用来分析生态足迹的主要影响因素。对赵晟等人提出的能值生态足迹模型进行了改进,得出更能反映当地环境压力状况的计算模型。利用改进的模型计算了宁夏1998-2007年的能值生态足迹和生态承载力。结果表明,宁夏的人均能值生态足迹除个别年份略有下降外,其它年份均有增长且增幅较大,从1998年的5.4091hm2增长到2007年的10.3564hm2；人均生态承载力逐年下降,从1998年的1.0890hm2下降到2007年的0.9575hm2；人均需求与人均供给之间的差距从1998年的4.3201hm2增长到2007年的9.3989hm2。对2003年到2007年5年间的能值生态足迹的主要影响因素的发展状况的灰关联分析结果表明,能源足迹的增长是宁夏能值生态足迹快速增长的主要因素,人类对畜产品的消费次之,再次是水及水产品,人类对农产品的消费对能值生态足迹的总体影响最小。在本文的最后利用2003-2007年的数据建立了GM(1,1)模型,并预测了2008-2015年的人均能值生态足迹和生态承载力,预测结果表明宁夏的人类需求和自然供给能力的差距继续增大,不可持续性加剧。
Sustainable development has received extensive attention since it was advanced. Two widely used evaluation methods have been proposed in the twentieth century:ecological footprint method and emergy analysis method. Based on these two methods, the ecologi-cal footprint method based on emergy analysis theory has been proposed by Zhao Sheng which combined ecological footprint with emergy analysis.
This thesis combines ecological footprint, emergy analysis with grey system theory. Grey prediction model and grey relational analysis have been used into the study of sus-tainable development. Grey prediction model is used to predict the emergy ecological footprint and emergy ecological capacity in order to study the environment develop trend of an area in the following years. Grey relational degree is used to analysis the main influence factor of ecological footprint. In this thesis, the emergy ecological footprint proposed by Zhao Sheng is modified in order to obtain a new calculation model which can give a more realistic picture of the environment situation. Using this new model, the emergy ecological footprint and emergy ecological capacity of Ningxia is calculated from 1998 to 2007. The results show that the per capita emergy ecological footprint of Ningxia increases with years from 5.4091hm2 in 1998 to 10.3564hm2 in 2007, the per capita emergy ecological capacity decreases with years from 1.0890hm2 in 1998 to 0.9575hm2 in 2007. The ecological deficit increases with years from 4.3201hm2 in 1998 to 9.3989hm2 in 2007.
The grey relational analysis results of emergy ecological footprint from the year 2003 to 2007 show that the increase of energy footprint is the main reason which leads to the largely increase of emergy ecological footprint of Ningxia. The second reason is the consume of animal products, and the third reason is the consume of water and water products. The consume of the agricultural products is the last one.
Finally, the GM(1,1)model is established using the datas from the year 2003 to 2007, and the following 8 years's emergy ecological footprint and emergy ecological capacity of Ningxia are predicted. The predict results show that the ecological deficit keeps on increasing, the unsustainable situation will be aggravated.
本论文将生态足迹模型、能值理论和灰色系统有关理论相结合,将灰色预测模型和灰色关联分析应用于可持续发展的研究中。灰色预测模型用来预测某一地区的生态足迹和生态承载力变化情况,进而研究该区域的可持续发展状况；灰关联度用来分析生态足迹的主要影响因素。对赵晟等人提出的能值生态足迹模型进行了改进,得出更能反映当地环境压力状况的计算模型。利用改进的模型计算了宁夏1998-2007年的能值生态足迹和生态承载力。结果表明,宁夏的人均能值生态足迹除个别年份略有下降外,其它年份均有增长且增幅较大,从1998年的5.4091hm2增长到2007年的10.3564hm2；人均生态承载力逐年下降,从1998年的1.0890hm2下降到2007年的0.9575hm2；人均需求与人均供给之间的差距从1998年的4.3201hm2增长到2007年的9.3989hm2。对2003年到2007年5年间的能值生态足迹的主要影响因素的发展状况的灰关联分析结果表明,能源足迹的增长是宁夏能值生态足迹快速增长的主要因素,人类对畜产品的消费次之,再次是水及水产品,人类对农产品的消费对能值生态足迹的总体影响最小。在本文的最后利用2003-2007年的数据建立了GM(1,1)模型,并预测了2008-2015年的人均能值生态足迹和生态承载力,预测结果表明宁夏的人类需求和自然供给能力的差距继续增大,不可持续性加剧。
Sustainable development has received extensive attention since it was advanced. Two widely used evaluation methods have been proposed in the twentieth century:ecological footprint method and emergy analysis method. Based on these two methods, the ecologi-cal footprint method based on emergy analysis theory has been proposed by Zhao Sheng which combined ecological footprint with emergy analysis.
This thesis combines ecological footprint, emergy analysis with grey system theory. Grey prediction model and grey relational analysis have been used into the study of sus-tainable development. Grey prediction model is used to predict the emergy ecological footprint and emergy ecological capacity in order to study the environment develop trend of an area in the following years. Grey relational degree is used to analysis the main influence factor of ecological footprint. In this thesis, the emergy ecological footprint proposed by Zhao Sheng is modified in order to obtain a new calculation model which can give a more realistic picture of the environment situation. Using this new model, the emergy ecological footprint and emergy ecological capacity of Ningxia is calculated from 1998 to 2007. The results show that the per capita emergy ecological footprint of Ningxia increases with years from 5.4091hm2 in 1998 to 10.3564hm2 in 2007, the per capita emergy ecological capacity decreases with years from 1.0890hm2 in 1998 to 0.9575hm2 in 2007. The ecological deficit increases with years from 4.3201hm2 in 1998 to 9.3989hm2 in 2007.
The grey relational analysis results of emergy ecological footprint from the year 2003 to 2007 show that the increase of energy footprint is the main reason which leads to the largely increase of emergy ecological footprint of Ningxia. The second reason is the consume of animal products, and the third reason is the consume of water and water products. The consume of the agricultural products is the last one.
Finally, the GM(1,1)model is established using the datas from the year 2003 to 2007, and the following 8 years's emergy ecological footprint and emergy ecological capacity of Ningxia are predicted. The predict results show that the ecological deficit keeps on increasing, the unsustainable situation will be aggravated.
引文
[1]Rees W E, Ecological footprint and appropriated carrying capacity:what urban eco-nomics leaves out[J], Environment and Urbanization,1992,4(2):121-130.
[2]Wackernagel M,Rees W E, Our ecological footprint:reducing human impact on the earth[M], Gabriela Island:New Society Publishers,1996.
[3]Wackernagel M, Onisto L,Bello P, Ecological footprints of nations[R], International council for local Environmental Initiative, Toronto,1997:10-21.
[4]Bicknell K B, Ball R J, Cullen R, et al, New methodology for the ecological footprint with an application to the New Zealand economy [J],Ecological Economics,1998,27: 149-160.
[5]Haberl H, Erb KH, Krausmann F, How to calculate and interpret ecological footprints for long periods of time:The case of Austria 1926-1995[J],Ecological Economics, 2001,38(1):25-45.
[6]Wackernagel M, Chad M, Erb KH, Ecological footprint time series of Austria, the Philippines, and South Korea for 1961-1999:Comparing the conventional approach to actual land area approach [J],Land Use Policy,2004,21(3):261-269.
[7]Hoekstra, Virtual Water Trade:Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade-Value of Water Research Report Series No.l2[C], Delft, The Netherlands:IHE,2003,13-23.
[8]Justin Kitzes, Alessandro Galli, Marco Bagliani, et al, A research agenda for improv-ing national Ecological Footprint accounts [J], Ecological Economics,2009,68:1991-2007.
[9]张志强,徐中民,程国栋,等,中国西部12省(区市)的生态足迹[J],地理学报,2001,56(5)：599-610.
[10]徐中民,张志强,程国栋,等,中国1999年生态足迹计算与发展能力分析[J],应用生态学报,2003,14(2)：280-285.
[11]杨开忠,杨咏,陈结,生态足迹分析理论与方法[J],地球科学进展,2000,15(6)：630-635.
[12]张桂宾,王安周,中国中部六省生态足迹实证分析[J],生态环境,2007,16(2)：598-601.
[13]赵先贵,肖玲,马彩虹,等,基于生态足迹的可持续评价指标体系的构建[J],中国农业科学,2006,39(6)：1202-1207.
[14]蔺海明,颉鹏,甘肃省河西绿洲农业区生态足迹动态研究[J],应用生态学报,2004,15(5)：827-832.
[15]Dongxia Yue, Xiaofeng Xu, Zizhen Li,et al, Spatiotemporal analysis of ecological footprint and biological capacity of Gansu, China 1991-2015:Down from the environ-mental cliff[J],Ecological Economics,2006,393-406.
[16]陈成忠,林振山,中国人均生态足迹与生物承载力变化的EMD分析及情景预测[J],生态学报,2007,27(12)：5291-5299.
[17]赵先贵,高利峰,马彩虹,等,中国生态足迹的动态研究[J],中国生态农业学报,2007,15(1)：149-152.
[18]Sheng Zhao,Zizhen Li,Wenlong Li, A modified method of ecological footprint calcula-tion and its application[J], Ecological Modelling,2005,185:65-75.
[19]B.Chen, G.Q.Chen, Ecological footprint accouting based on emergy-A case study of the Chinese society[J], Ecological Modelling,2006,198:101-114.
[20]张芳怡,濮励杰,张健,基于能值分析理论的生态足迹模型及应用-以江苏省为例[J],自然资源学报,2006,21(4)：653-660.
[21]王建源,陈艳春,李曼华,冯建设,基于能值分析的山东省生态足迹[J],生态学杂志,2007,26(9)：1505-1510.
[22]赵志强,李双成,高阳,基于能值改进的开放系统生态足迹模型及其应用-以深圳市为例[J],生态学报,2008,28(5)：2220-2231.
[23]Raul, Lucas Pereira, Feni Agostinho,et al, Convergence of ecological footprint and emergy analysis as a sustainability indicator of countries:Peru as case study[J], Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation,2010,15(10):3182-3192.
[24]刘思峰,郭天榜,党耀国,等,灰色系统理论及其应用[M],科学出版社,1999.
[25]王清华,改进的灰色模型在储层敏感性预测中的应用[J],钻井液与完井液,2008,25(4)：31-33.
[26]熊彩珍,白锡川,灰色理论在桑螟灾变预测中的应用[J],蚕业科学,2009,35(4)：869-871.
[27]雷刚,顾伟,袁晓东,灰色理论在电能质量综合评价中的应用[J],电力自动化设备,2009,29(11)：62-65.
[28]刘晶,基于“能值-生态足迹”模型的吉林省生态安全研究[D],吉林大学,2008.
[29]Tzu-Yi, Keisuke Hanaki, Hsin-Hsien Ho,et al, Using grey system theory to evalu-ate transportation effects on air quality in Japan[J], Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Envirnment,2007,12(3):158-166.
[30]Thananchai Leephakpreeda, Grey prediction on indoor comfort temperature for HVAC systems[J], Expert Systems with Applications,2008,34(4):2284-2289.
[31]Erdal Kayacan, Baris Ulutas, Okyay Kaynak,Grey system theory-based models in time series prediction[J], Expert Systems with Applications,2010,37(2):1784-1789.
[32]张志强,徐中民,程国栋,生态足迹的概念及计算模型[J],生态经济,2000,10：8-10.
[33]史平平,尹君,等,基于生态足迹分析法的秦皇岛市发展可持续性评价[J],安徽农业科学,2007,35(10)：3031-3033.
[34]岳东霞,李自珍,惠苍,甘肃省生态足迹和生态承载力发展趋势研究[J],西北植物学报,2004,24(3)：454-463.
[35]Wackernagel M, Onisto L,Callejas L A, Ecological footprints of nations:how much nature do they use? how much nature do they have? [R], Tornto:International Council for local Envirinmental Intiatives,1997.
[36]蓝盛芳,钦佩,陆宏芳,生态经济系统能值分析[M],北京,化学工业出版社,2002.
[37]Odum H T, Environment Accounting:EMERGY and Environmental Decision Mak-ing[M], New York:John Wiley and Sons,1996.
[38]Odum H T, Odum EC, Brown M, Environment and Society in Florida, Boca Racon:Lewis Publishers,1998.
[39]蓝盛芳,钦佩,生态系统的能值分析[J],应用生态学报,2001,12(1)：129-131.
[40]邓聚龙,灰色系统理论教程[M],华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[41]邓聚龙,灰色系统基本方法[M],华中理工大学出版社,1988.
[42]傅立,灰色系统理论及其应用[M],科学技术文献出版社；1992.
[43]刘燕华,李秀彬,脆弱生态环境与可持续发展[M],北京：商务印书馆,2007.
[44]廖顺宝,刘凯,李泽辉,中国风能资源空间分布的估算[J],地球信息科学,2008,10(5)：551-556.
[45]宁夏回族自治区统计局,国家统计局宁夏调查总队编,宁夏统计年鉴[M],北京：中国统计出版社,1999-2008.
[46]陈阜,农业生态学教程[M],气象出版社,1998.
[47]黄凤华,李维德,基于能值生态足迹法的山东省可持续发展分析[J],安徽农业科学,2009,37(17)：8186-8189.
[2]Wackernagel M,Rees W E, Our ecological footprint:reducing human impact on the earth[M], Gabriela Island:New Society Publishers,1996.
[3]Wackernagel M, Onisto L,Bello P, Ecological footprints of nations[R], International council for local Environmental Initiative, Toronto,1997:10-21.
[4]Bicknell K B, Ball R J, Cullen R, et al, New methodology for the ecological footprint with an application to the New Zealand economy [J],Ecological Economics,1998,27: 149-160.
[5]Haberl H, Erb KH, Krausmann F, How to calculate and interpret ecological footprints for long periods of time:The case of Austria 1926-1995[J],Ecological Economics, 2001,38(1):25-45.
[6]Wackernagel M, Chad M, Erb KH, Ecological footprint time series of Austria, the Philippines, and South Korea for 1961-1999:Comparing the conventional approach to actual land area approach [J],Land Use Policy,2004,21(3):261-269.
[7]Hoekstra, Virtual Water Trade:Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade-Value of Water Research Report Series No.l2[C], Delft, The Netherlands:IHE,2003,13-23.
[8]Justin Kitzes, Alessandro Galli, Marco Bagliani, et al, A research agenda for improv-ing national Ecological Footprint accounts [J], Ecological Economics,2009,68:1991-2007.
[9]张志强,徐中民,程国栋,等,中国西部12省(区市)的生态足迹[J],地理学报,2001,56(5)：599-610.
[10]徐中民,张志强,程国栋,等,中国1999年生态足迹计算与发展能力分析[J],应用生态学报,2003,14(2)：280-285.
[11]杨开忠,杨咏,陈结,生态足迹分析理论与方法[J],地球科学进展,2000,15(6)：630-635.
[12]张桂宾,王安周,中国中部六省生态足迹实证分析[J],生态环境,2007,16(2)：598-601.
[13]赵先贵,肖玲,马彩虹,等,基于生态足迹的可持续评价指标体系的构建[J],中国农业科学,2006,39(6)：1202-1207.
[14]蔺海明,颉鹏,甘肃省河西绿洲农业区生态足迹动态研究[J],应用生态学报,2004,15(5)：827-832.
[15]Dongxia Yue, Xiaofeng Xu, Zizhen Li,et al, Spatiotemporal analysis of ecological footprint and biological capacity of Gansu, China 1991-2015:Down from the environ-mental cliff[J],Ecological Economics,2006,393-406.
[16]陈成忠,林振山,中国人均生态足迹与生物承载力变化的EMD分析及情景预测[J],生态学报,2007,27(12)：5291-5299.
[17]赵先贵,高利峰,马彩虹,等,中国生态足迹的动态研究[J],中国生态农业学报,2007,15(1)：149-152.
[18]Sheng Zhao,Zizhen Li,Wenlong Li, A modified method of ecological footprint calcula-tion and its application[J], Ecological Modelling,2005,185:65-75.
[19]B.Chen, G.Q.Chen, Ecological footprint accouting based on emergy-A case study of the Chinese society[J], Ecological Modelling,2006,198:101-114.
[20]张芳怡,濮励杰,张健,基于能值分析理论的生态足迹模型及应用-以江苏省为例[J],自然资源学报,2006,21(4)：653-660.
[21]王建源,陈艳春,李曼华,冯建设,基于能值分析的山东省生态足迹[J],生态学杂志,2007,26(9)：1505-1510.
[22]赵志强,李双成,高阳,基于能值改进的开放系统生态足迹模型及其应用-以深圳市为例[J],生态学报,2008,28(5)：2220-2231.
[23]Raul, Lucas Pereira, Feni Agostinho,et al, Convergence of ecological footprint and emergy analysis as a sustainability indicator of countries:Peru as case study[J], Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation,2010,15(10):3182-3192.
[24]刘思峰,郭天榜,党耀国,等,灰色系统理论及其应用[M],科学出版社,1999.
[25]王清华,改进的灰色模型在储层敏感性预测中的应用[J],钻井液与完井液,2008,25(4)：31-33.
[26]熊彩珍,白锡川,灰色理论在桑螟灾变预测中的应用[J],蚕业科学,2009,35(4)：869-871.
[27]雷刚,顾伟,袁晓东,灰色理论在电能质量综合评价中的应用[J],电力自动化设备,2009,29(11)：62-65.
[28]刘晶,基于“能值-生态足迹”模型的吉林省生态安全研究[D],吉林大学,2008.
[29]Tzu-Yi, Keisuke Hanaki, Hsin-Hsien Ho,et al, Using grey system theory to evalu-ate transportation effects on air quality in Japan[J], Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Envirnment,2007,12(3):158-166.
[30]Thananchai Leephakpreeda, Grey prediction on indoor comfort temperature for HVAC systems[J], Expert Systems with Applications,2008,34(4):2284-2289.
[31]Erdal Kayacan, Baris Ulutas, Okyay Kaynak,Grey system theory-based models in time series prediction[J], Expert Systems with Applications,2010,37(2):1784-1789.
[32]张志强,徐中民,程国栋,生态足迹的概念及计算模型[J],生态经济,2000,10：8-10.
[33]史平平,尹君,等,基于生态足迹分析法的秦皇岛市发展可持续性评价[J],安徽农业科学,2007,35(10)：3031-3033.
[34]岳东霞,李自珍,惠苍,甘肃省生态足迹和生态承载力发展趋势研究[J],西北植物学报,2004,24(3)：454-463.
[35]Wackernagel M, Onisto L,Callejas L A, Ecological footprints of nations:how much nature do they use? how much nature do they have? [R], Tornto:International Council for local Envirinmental Intiatives,1997.
[36]蓝盛芳,钦佩,陆宏芳,生态经济系统能值分析[M],北京,化学工业出版社,2002.
[37]Odum H T, Environment Accounting:EMERGY and Environmental Decision Mak-ing[M], New York:John Wiley and Sons,1996.
[38]Odum H T, Odum EC, Brown M, Environment and Society in Florida, Boca Racon:Lewis Publishers,1998.
[39]蓝盛芳,钦佩,生态系统的能值分析[J],应用生态学报,2001,12(1)：129-131.
[40]邓聚龙,灰色系统理论教程[M],华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[41]邓聚龙,灰色系统基本方法[M],华中理工大学出版社,1988.
[42]傅立,灰色系统理论及其应用[M],科学技术文献出版社；1992.
[43]刘燕华,李秀彬,脆弱生态环境与可持续发展[M],北京：商务印书馆,2007.
[44]廖顺宝,刘凯,李泽辉,中国风能资源空间分布的估算[J],地球信息科学,2008,10(5)：551-556.
[45]宁夏回族自治区统计局,国家统计局宁夏调查总队编,宁夏统计年鉴[M],北京：中国统计出版社,1999-2008.
[46]陈阜,农业生态学教程[M],气象出版社,1998.
[47]黄凤华,李维德,基于能值生态足迹法的山东省可持续发展分析[J],安徽农业科学,2009,37(17)：8186-8189.