电力系统运行安全性若干基础理论与算法研究
|
摘要
随着智能电网的快速发展、特高压电网建设的稳步推进,现代电网的自动化水平和复杂程度不断加强。但另一方面,伴随着系统复杂性和经济性的不断提高,系统运行的不确定性也随之增加,使得系统故障波及的范围更广,系统事故的后果也愈加严重。因此本文主要针对电力系统运行安全性的若干基础理论与算法进行了以下研究工作：
(1)本文在深入研究备用电源自动投入装置(简称备自投或BATS)动作特性的基础上,设计了一种新的用以在线分析备自投投退组合的实时算法。该算法首次提出了两个全新矩阵模型：备自投实时分级矩阵模型和备自投实时关联矩阵模型,并对这两个矩阵模型的物理意义进行了详细说明。以河南省某地区实际电网为算例对本文所提算法进行了验证。
(2)为了解决由于投入备自投装置时,没有充分考虑备用电源侧元件热稳定极限的影响或其他相关母线的电压越限情况,导致连锁故障发生,使故障进一步扩大的问题。本文应用重复潮流算法,实时在线评估备用电源侧的可用供电能力,将所得结果作为备自投装置动作与否的决策依据。最后利用某地区在线SCADA数据对上述方法进行了验证,验证结果表明该方法具有一定的可行性。
(3)从配电网供电安全性角度出发,考虑配电网结构灵活的特性,以风险理论为基础,结合K(N-1+1)准则和效用理论提出了配电网失负荷风险指标、过负荷风险指标和电压越限风险指标,进而从不同侧面对系统的安全性进行“分诊”,并在此基础上进一步应用层次分析法(AHP)得出系统的总风险指标,作为配电网静态安全分析的基础,以达到“会诊”的目的。
(4)提出了一套较为完整的地区电网在线安全评价指标体系,应用实时数据库与关系数据库相结合的方法设计了“基于实时数据的地区电网在线安全预警系统”的硬件网络结构与软件架构,给出了地市调度系统SCADA和PAS实时数据采集与传输,以及各类计算后所得安全指标如何发布与展示的具体方式。
(5)提出一种考虑发电机实时运行状态的发电系统运行风险评估算法。采用一种计及发电机实时运行状态的停运率模型来计算各发电机的实时停运率,并根据风险理论建立发电机非计划停运给发电系统造成的经济损失后果模型。最后给出发电系统所处各种有功输出状态的概率、期望有功输出和期望经济损失3个指标。通过对算例IEEE RTS-79的计算分析验证所提算法的有效性。
With the rapid development of smart grid and UHV power grid, the modem grid's automation and complexity level constantly strengthen. On the other hand, The uncertainty of the system also increases, making the sweep region of fault more wider and the consequence of fault more severe. The dissertation focuses on several key theory and algorithm on power system operational security. The main achievements are as follows:
In this dissertation, on the basis of the in-depth research of BATS operating characteristics, a new online algorithm for analyzing the controlling strategy of BATS is proposed. Author proposes two innovative matrix models:BATS real-time rating matrix model and BATS real-time incidence matrix model, then the physical meaning of the two-matrix model is described in detail. Making an actual regional grid of Henan province as an example, author verifyes the proposed algorithm.
In order to solve this problem:a series of failures may occur due to the lack of consideration of the influence of the component thermal stability limits at standby power supply side and voltage limits of relevant bus in the controlling process of BATS. This paper evaluates the available supply capability of standby power online by using repetitive power flow method. The results provide a basis for decision making in terms of switching on the BATS. At last, author adapt the SCADA data in a region grid, and the results confirm the plausibility of our strategy.
Based on the flexibility of distribution network, risk theory and starting with power supplying security of distribution network, author proposes the risk indicators of load loss, overload and voltage limit violation combining with the k(n-1+1) criterion and utility theory. Using this method, the paper gives a sub-diagnosis of the safety for system from different aspects, and makes use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to draw the whole risk indicator of system as the foundation of the static security analysis. So we can get the integer indicator of the whole system.
An integrated indices system for the regional power grid on-line security assessment is proposed. Regarding the presented indices system as the core, an approach, in which the real-time database is combined with relational database, is adopted to design the hardware structure and software architecture of the on-line security assessment system based on real-time data for regional power grid. Author also describes the specific way of how to collect and transmit SCADA and PAS real-time data from regional power grid dispatching system, and display the safety indicators.
Putting forward an operational risk assessment algorithm for generating system, in which the operating conditions of generator was considered. The outage rate of generator was calculated by a method in which the operating conditions of generator had been considered. The economic loss model which was caused by unplanned shutdown of generator was also established. At last, the algorithm developed three indices, including the probability of all kinds of active power output states, active power output expectation and economic loss expectation, which can measure the real time operational risk of power plant. The calculation and analysis of IEEE-RTS79reliability test systems show that the proposed algorithm is effective.
(1)本文在深入研究备用电源自动投入装置(简称备自投或BATS)动作特性的基础上,设计了一种新的用以在线分析备自投投退组合的实时算法。该算法首次提出了两个全新矩阵模型：备自投实时分级矩阵模型和备自投实时关联矩阵模型,并对这两个矩阵模型的物理意义进行了详细说明。以河南省某地区实际电网为算例对本文所提算法进行了验证。
(2)为了解决由于投入备自投装置时,没有充分考虑备用电源侧元件热稳定极限的影响或其他相关母线的电压越限情况,导致连锁故障发生,使故障进一步扩大的问题。本文应用重复潮流算法,实时在线评估备用电源侧的可用供电能力,将所得结果作为备自投装置动作与否的决策依据。最后利用某地区在线SCADA数据对上述方法进行了验证,验证结果表明该方法具有一定的可行性。
(3)从配电网供电安全性角度出发,考虑配电网结构灵活的特性,以风险理论为基础,结合K(N-1+1)准则和效用理论提出了配电网失负荷风险指标、过负荷风险指标和电压越限风险指标,进而从不同侧面对系统的安全性进行“分诊”,并在此基础上进一步应用层次分析法(AHP)得出系统的总风险指标,作为配电网静态安全分析的基础,以达到“会诊”的目的。
(4)提出了一套较为完整的地区电网在线安全评价指标体系,应用实时数据库与关系数据库相结合的方法设计了“基于实时数据的地区电网在线安全预警系统”的硬件网络结构与软件架构,给出了地市调度系统SCADA和PAS实时数据采集与传输,以及各类计算后所得安全指标如何发布与展示的具体方式。
(5)提出一种考虑发电机实时运行状态的发电系统运行风险评估算法。采用一种计及发电机实时运行状态的停运率模型来计算各发电机的实时停运率,并根据风险理论建立发电机非计划停运给发电系统造成的经济损失后果模型。最后给出发电系统所处各种有功输出状态的概率、期望有功输出和期望经济损失3个指标。通过对算例IEEE RTS-79的计算分析验证所提算法的有效性。
With the rapid development of smart grid and UHV power grid, the modem grid's automation and complexity level constantly strengthen. On the other hand, The uncertainty of the system also increases, making the sweep region of fault more wider and the consequence of fault more severe. The dissertation focuses on several key theory and algorithm on power system operational security. The main achievements are as follows:
In this dissertation, on the basis of the in-depth research of BATS operating characteristics, a new online algorithm for analyzing the controlling strategy of BATS is proposed. Author proposes two innovative matrix models:BATS real-time rating matrix model and BATS real-time incidence matrix model, then the physical meaning of the two-matrix model is described in detail. Making an actual regional grid of Henan province as an example, author verifyes the proposed algorithm.
In order to solve this problem:a series of failures may occur due to the lack of consideration of the influence of the component thermal stability limits at standby power supply side and voltage limits of relevant bus in the controlling process of BATS. This paper evaluates the available supply capability of standby power online by using repetitive power flow method. The results provide a basis for decision making in terms of switching on the BATS. At last, author adapt the SCADA data in a region grid, and the results confirm the plausibility of our strategy.
Based on the flexibility of distribution network, risk theory and starting with power supplying security of distribution network, author proposes the risk indicators of load loss, overload and voltage limit violation combining with the k(n-1+1) criterion and utility theory. Using this method, the paper gives a sub-diagnosis of the safety for system from different aspects, and makes use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to draw the whole risk indicator of system as the foundation of the static security analysis. So we can get the integer indicator of the whole system.
An integrated indices system for the regional power grid on-line security assessment is proposed. Regarding the presented indices system as the core, an approach, in which the real-time database is combined with relational database, is adopted to design the hardware structure and software architecture of the on-line security assessment system based on real-time data for regional power grid. Author also describes the specific way of how to collect and transmit SCADA and PAS real-time data from regional power grid dispatching system, and display the safety indicators.
Putting forward an operational risk assessment algorithm for generating system, in which the operating conditions of generator was considered. The outage rate of generator was calculated by a method in which the operating conditions of generator had been considered. The economic loss model which was caused by unplanned shutdown of generator was also established. At last, the algorithm developed three indices, including the probability of all kinds of active power output states, active power output expectation and economic loss expectation, which can measure the real time operational risk of power plant. The calculation and analysis of IEEE-RTS79reliability test systems show that the proposed algorithm is effective.
引文
[1]薛禹胜.时空协调的大停电预防框架(一)从孤立防线到综合防御[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(1)：8-16
[2]薛禹胜.时空协调的大停电防御框架(二)广域信息、在线量化分析和自适应优化控制[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(2)：8-10
[3]薛禹胜.时空协调的大停电防御框架(三)各道防线内部的优化和不同防线之间的协调[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(3)：1-11
[4]C. Cecati, C. Citro, and P. Siano. Combined operations of renewable energy systems and responsive demand in a smart grid[J]. IEEE Trans Sustainable Energy,2011,2 (4):468-476
[5]刘振亚.特高压直流输电理论[M].中国电力出版社,2009：1-10
[6]M. Y. Zhai. Transmission characteristics of low-voltage distribution networks in China under the smart grids environment[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Delivery,2011, 26(1):173-180
[7]Li X B. Study of multi-objective optimization and multi-attribute decision-making for economic and environmental power dispatch[J]. Electric Power Systems Research,2009,79:789-795
[8]Yalcinoz T, Koksoy O. A multiobjective optimization method to environmental economic dispatch[J]. Electrical Power Energy Systems,2007,29:42-50
[9]Basu M. An interactive fuzzy satisfying method based onevolutionary programming technique for multiobjective short-term hydrothermal scheduling[J]. Electrical Power Systems Research,2004,69:277-285
[10]Gjenged T. Emission Constrained Unit-Commitment[J]. IEEE Trans on Energy Constrained,1996,11(1):132-138
[11]LI Wenyuan, Korczynski J. K. Risk Evaluation of Transmission System Operation Modes:Concept, Method and Application[A]. Proceedings of IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting[C]. New York, USA 2002,2:1124-1129
[12]Carreras B A, Newman D E, Dobson I, et al. Evidence for self-organized criticality in a time series of electric power system blackouts[J]. IEEE Trans on Circuits and Systems-Part I,2004,51(9):1733-1740
[13]Wang Hongye, Thorp J S. Optimal locations for protection system enhancement:a simulation of cascading outages[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Delivery,2001, 16(4):528-533
[14]Gooi H B, Mendes D P, Bell K R W, et al. Optimal scheduling of spinning reserve[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,1999,14(4):1485-1492
[15]Conejo A. J., Plazas M. A., Espinola R., et al. Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the wavelet transform and ARIMA models[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2005,20(2):1035-1042
[16]Dahlgren R., Liu C. C., Lawarree J.. Risk assessment in energy trading[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2003,18(2):503-511
[17]Bouffard F., Galiana F. D.. An electricity market with a probabilistic spinning reserve criterion[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2004,19(1):300-307
[18]何大愚.对于美国西部电力系统1996年7月2日大停电事故的初步认识[J].电网技术,1996,20(9)：35-39
[19]韩祯祥,曹一家.电力系统的安全性及防治措施[J].电网技术,2004,28(8)：1-6
[20]U.S-Canada power system outage task force. Final report on the August 14 2003 blackout in the United States and Canada:causes and recommendations[EB/OL]. http://www.nerc.com/,2004
[21]甘德强,明江溢,韩祯祥.2003年国际若干停电事故思考[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(3)：1-5
[22]鲁宗相.解析莫斯科大停电[J].中国电力企业管理,2005,(7)：20,30-31
[23]赵希正.提升服务能力服务行业发展[J].中国电力企业管理,2005,(7)：27
[24]徐伟华,艾芊,周玉光等.莫斯科5·25大停电对中国电力市场发展的启示[J].华东电力,2005,33(7)：45-48
[25]唐斯庆,张弥,李建设等.海南电网“9·26”大面积停电事故的分析与总结[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(1)：1-7,16
[26]本刊编辑.2006年世界各地停电事故[J].水利电力科技,2006,32(4)：46-48
[27]Jishan Ma, Honggeng Yang, Zhijian Yuan. The Application of Autonomous Decentralized AVC System in Regional Power Network[A]. Power and Engergy Enginnering Conference(APPEEC)[C]. Chengdu,2010:1-4
[28]杜红卫,何勇,张瑞鹏等.地区电网调度智能辅助决策软件设计[J].电力系统自动化,2010,34(2)：108-112
[29]吴旭,张建华,邱威等.基于N-K故障的地区电网脆弱性评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(4)：93-99
[30]刘巍.地区电网安全稳定分析[D].西南交通大学硕士学位论文,2008：11-13
[31]周辉.市场条件下的发电投资分析与发电系统运行可靠性研究[D].华中科技大学博士学位论文,2010：45-50
[32]黄常抒,胡云花.备自投装置接线中的问题及应对措施[J].电力自动化设备,2009,29(4)：147-149
[33]黄梅.电力系统自动装置[M].中国电力出版社,2000：1-10
[34]余涛,胡细兵,黄炜等.地区电网广域备自投控制系统研制[J].电力自动化设备,2011,31(3)：121-125
[35]孙鸣,许航.备用电源自动投入装置应用中的误动问题分析及应对措施[J].电力自动化设备,2010,30(4)：144-146
[36]宋国堂,于海鹏,赵文静等.含分布式电源接入的变电站备自投应用问题[J].电力自动化设备,2010,30(7)：147-150
[37]汤大海.基于双电源扩大内桥的备自投解耦控制策略[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(23)：103-107
[38]唐海军.基于光纤通信的远方备自投设计与实现[J].继电器,2006,34(4)：30-33
[39]单永梅,王磊.数字式远方备自投装置[J].电力自动化设备,2005,25(9)：43-46
[40]季学军,周爱敏.利用纵联保护通道实现远方备自投的方案[J].江苏电机工程,2004,23(5)：40-43
[41]范寿忠.备自投过负荷联切功能的实现[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(5)：139-140
[42]陈志峰,吴勇,金滇黔.考虑山区小水电的智能型备自投装置的研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(8)：120-122
[43]刘涛,杜明,时燕新等.基于RTDS的备自投装置的数模试验研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(8)：123-127
[44]刘雪昭,阎成林.重合闸原理在备自投装置中的应用[J].山西电力技术,1998,18(2)：47-49
[45]杜景远,崔艳.微机备自投在济南电网中的应用[J].继电器,1998,29(9)：40-43
[46]胡伟,刘志远.用可编程逻辑控制器(PLC)实现电力系统备用电源自投装置[J].宁夏工程技术,2003,2(2)：135-137
[47]任祖怡,窦乘国,许华乔.新型智能备用电源自投装置[J].电力系统自动化,2003,27(9)：86-87
[48]张国平,陈晖,吕庭钦等.倒送电运行方式中备自投动作分析及技术措施[J].电力系统保护与控制,2009,37(8)：93-95
[49]王攀峰,魏燕,刘立功等.一种面向对象的备自投装置设计方案的研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2009,37(18)：109-111
[50]余加喜.面向时间过程的电网静态安全分析与日发电计划研究[D].哈尔滨工业大学博士学位论文,2009：48-62
[51]陈为化.基于风险的电力系统静态安全分析与预防控制[D].浙江大学博士学位论文,2007：34-46
[52]于尔铿,刘广一,周京阳等.能量管理系统(EMS)[M].科学出版社,1998：1-10
[53]江长明,朱继忠,徐国禹.有功调度中经济性与安全性的协调问题[J].电力系统 自动化,1995,19(11)：43-48
[54]郭志忠.电网自愈方案[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(10)：85-91
[55][W. F. Tinney, C. E. Hart. Power Flow Solution by Newton's Method[J]. IEEE Transaction on PAS,1967,86(11):1449-1460
[56]B. Stott, O. Alsac. Fast Decoupled Load Flow[J]. IEEE Trans on PAS,1974,93(3): 859-869
[57]H. L. Nguyen. Newton-Raphson Method in Complex Form[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1997,12(3):1355-1358
[58]F. Zhang, C. S. Cheng. A Modified Newton for Radial Distribution System Power Flow Analysis[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1997,12(1):389-397
[59]R. A. M. Amerongen. A General Purpose Version of the Fast Decoupled Load Flow[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1989,4(2):760-770
[60]R. D. Zimmerman. H. D. Chiang. Fast Decoupled Power Flow for Unbalanced Radial Distribution Systems[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1995,10(4): 2045-2052
[61]邹森.电力系统安全分析与控制[M].水利电力出版社,1995：1-28
[62]王宪荣,包丽明,柳焯.极坐标系准最优乘子病态潮流解法研究[J].中国电机工程学报,1994,14(1)：40-45
[63]姚玉斌,鲁宝春,陈学允.小阻抗支路对牛顿法潮流的影响及其处理方法[J].电网技术,1999,23(9)：28-32
[64]于继来,王江,柳焯.电力系统潮流算法的几点改进[J].中国电机工程学报,2001,29(9)：88-93
[65]孙键,江道灼,刘志华.基于前推回代的配电网潮流改进算法[J].电力自动化设备,2004,24(3)：81-84
[66]刘觉,金振东.电力市场发展对EMS的新挑战[J].电力系统自动化,1997,21(2)：7-9
[67]Wrubel J N., Rapciendki P. S., Lee K. L.. Practical experience with corrective switching algorithm for on-line applications[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1996, 11(1):415-421
[68]蔡中勤.配电网Newton法潮流及功率矩法研究[D].哈尔滨工业大学博士学位论文,2000,10：61-73
[69]刘伟,郭志忠.配电网安全性指标的研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(8)：85-90
[70]闫国良,王东林,胡笳.基于蒙特卡洛法的配电网安全性评估[J].中国电力教育,2010,26(36)：256-258.
[71]张伯明,吴素农,蔡斌等.电网控制中心安全预警和决策支持系统设计[J].电力 系统自动化,2006,30(6)：1-5
[72]吴文传,张伯明,孙宏斌等.在线安全预警和决策支持系统的软件构架与实现[J].电力系统自动化,2007,31(12)：23-29
[73]王红印,张明亮,孙素琴等.大电网安全可靠运行4级梯度预警预控方法[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(19)：20-24
[74]李建,庞晓艳,李旻等.省级电网在线安全稳定预警及决策支持系统研究与应用[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(22)：97-102
[75]刘磊,吴文宣,黄道姗等.城市电网安全预警与保障决策支持系统[J].华东电力,2008,36(6)：65-67
[76]陈勇,姚玉斌,夏翔等.考虑备自投的地区电网静态安全分析设计与应用[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(19)：84-87,99
[77]张国华,张建华,彭谦等.电网安全评价的指标体系与方法[J].电网技术,2009,33(8)：30-34
[78]程林.大规模电力系统充裕度和安全性算法的研究[D].清华大学博士论文,2000：1-10
[79]程林,郭永基.发输电系统充裕度和安全性算法研究[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(19)：23-26
[80]丁明,李胜虎,吴红斌.电力系统概率充分性和概率稳定性的综合评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(3)：20-25
[81]宋云亭.发输电合成系统可靠性综合评估的智能模型和算法研究[D].清华大学博士论文,2003：1-15
[82]X. B. Yu, C. Singh. A practical approach for interated power system vulnerability analysis with protection failures[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2004,19(4): 1811-1820
[83]赵渊,周家启,刘洋.发输电组合系统可靠性评估的Monte-Carlo仿真及并行处理[J].中国电力,2003,36(11)：19-23
[84]刘洋,周家启,谢开贵等.基于Beowulf集群的大电力系统可靠性评估蒙特卡罗并行仿真[J].中国电机工程学报,2006,26(20)：9-14
[85]刘洋,谢开贵,周家启等.大电力系统可靠性评估高性能计算平台涉及与实现[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(18)：89-93
[86]N. Gubbala, C. Singh. Parallel implementation of Monte Carlo simulation methods for power system reliability evaluation-some problems and solutions[A]. Proceedings of ICPST'94[C]. Beijing,1994:380-384
[87]L. Goel, C. Feng. Well-being framework for composite generation and transmission system reliability evaluation[A]. Proceedings of Electrical Engineering Generation Transmission Distribution[C]. London,1999:528-534
[88]M. Armando, S. Leite, L. C. de Resende, et al. Well-being analysis for composite generation and transmission system[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2004,19(4): 1763-1770
[89]R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, S. Aboreshaid. Power system health analysis[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety,1997,55(1):1-8
[90]R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, S. Aboreshaid. An approach to evaluating system well-being in engineering reliability applications[J]. Reliability Engineering& System Safety,1995,50(1):1-5
[91]丁明,李生虎,吴红斌等.基于充分性和安全性的电力系统运行状态分析和量化评价[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(4)：43-49
[92]R. Billinton, R. N. Allan. Reliability evaluation of power systems(second)[M]. New York and london:Plenum Press,1996:1-28
[93]R. Billinton, A. V. Jain. The effect of rapid start and hot reserve units in spinning reserve studies[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Apparatus and Systems,1972, PAS-91:°511-516
[94]G. B. Lian, R. Billinton. Operating reserve risk assessment in composite power systems[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,1994,9(3):1270-1276
[95]R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad. A basic framework for generating system operating health analysis[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,1994,9(3): 1610-1617
[96]R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad. Generating system operting health analysis considering stand-by units, interruptible load and postponable outages[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,1994,9(3):1618-1625
[97]R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad. Composite systems operating reserve assessment using a reliability framework[A]. Canadian Conference on Electrical and Computer Engineering[C]. Canada,2001
[98]R. Billinton, A. Abdulwhab. Short-term generating unit maintenance scheduling in a deregulated power system using a probabilistic approach[A]. IEE Proceedings of Generation, Transmission and Distribution[C]. London,2003
[99]A. Abdulwhab, R. Billinton. Application of well-being concepts in short term generating unit preventive maintenance scheduling[A]. Canadian Conference on Electrical and Computer Engineering[C]. Canada,2002
[100]孙元章,程林,刘海涛.基于实时运行状态的电力系统运行可靠性评估[J].电网技术,2005,29(15)：6-12
[101]Y. Z. Sun, L. Cheng, H. T. Liu, et al. Power system operational reliability evaluation based on real-time operating state[A]. The 7th International Power Engineering Conference[C]. Singapore,2005
[102]程林,何剑,孙元章.线路实时可靠性模型参数对电网运行可靠性评估的影响[J].电网技术,2006,30(13)：8-13
[103]J. HE, L. Cheng, Y. Z. Sun. Transformer real-time reliability model based on operating conditions[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University,2007,8(3):378-383
[104]何剑,程林,孙元章,等.计及天气预测的电力系统运行可靠性短期评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(10)：31-38,51
[105]何剑,程林,孙元章.电力系统运行可靠性最优控制[J].中国电机工程学报,2010,30(7)：15-21
[106]何剑,程林,孙元章等.条件相依的输变电设备短期可靠性模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2009,29(7)：39-46
[107]M. Ni, J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal, et al. On-line risk-based security assessment[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2003,18(1):258-265
[108]M. Ni, J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal, et al. Software implementation of online risk-based security assessment J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2003,18(3):1165-1172
[109]W. H. Fu, J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal. Risk assessment for transformer loading[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2001,16(3):346-353
[110]Y. J. Dai, J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal. Risk assessment for overload security[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2001,16(4):616-623
[111]H. Wan, J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal. Increasing thermal rating by risk analysis[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,1999,14(3):815-828
[112]J. Zhang, J. Pu, J. D. Mccalley, et al. A bayesian approach for short-term transmission line thermal overload risk assessment[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Delivery,2002,17(3):770-778
[113]H. Wan, J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal. Risk based voltage security assessment [J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2000,15(4):1247-1254
[114]J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal, H. Wan, et al. Voltage risk assessment[A]. IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting[C]. Canada,1999
[115]陈为化,江全元,曹一家等.电力系统电压崩溃的风险评估[J].电网技术,2005,29(19)：6-11
[116]S. T. Lee, S. Hofman. Power delivery reliability initiative bears fruit[J]. IEEE Computer Applications in Power,2001,14(3):56-63
[117]V. Vittal, J. D. Mccalley, V. Vanacker, et al. Transient instability risk assessment A]. IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting[C]. Canada,1999
[118]J. D. Mccalley, A. A. Fouad, V. Vittal, et al. A risk-based security index for determining operating limits in stability-limited slsctric power systems [J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,1997,12(3):1210-1219
[119]冯永清,吴文传,孙宏斌等.现代能量控制中心的运行风险评估研究初探[J]. 中国电机工程学报,2005,25(13)：73-79
[120]冯永清,吴文传,张伯明等.基于可信性理论的电力系统运行风险评估(三)应用与工程实践[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(3)：11-16
[121]陈为化,江全元,曹一家.基于风险理论和模糊推理的电压脆弱性评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(24)：20-25
[122]J. Mccalley, S. Asgarpoor, L. Bertling, et al. Probabilistic security assessment for power system operations[A]. IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting[C]. USA,2004:112-113
[123]王秀丽,陈皓勇,甘志等.应用随机生产模拟的发电系统可靠性评估方法[J].电力系统自动化,1999,23(17)：15-19
[124]王锡凡,王秀丽.随机生产模拟及其应用[J].电力系统自动化,2003,27(8)：10-15
[125]周君,丁坚勇.基于神经网络的发电系统可靠性评估方法[J].电力建设,2002,23(7)：53-55
[126]陈举华,赵建国,郭毅之.电力系统可靠性研究的灰关联和模糊贴近度分析方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2002,22(1)：59-63
[127]S. Narasimhan, S. Asgarpoor. A fuzzy-based approach for generation system reliability evaluation[J]. Electric Power Systems Reasearch,2000,53(2):133-138
[128]张焰.电网规划中的模糊可靠性评估方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2000,20(11)：77-80
[129]雷秀仁,任震,陈碧云等.电力系统可靠性评估的不确定性数学模型探讨[J].电力自动化设备,2005,25(11)：1-4
[130]王锡凡,王秀丽,别朝红等.我国发电系统可靠性指标研究[J].中国电力,1999,32(2)：24-28
[131]王锡凡,王秀丽,别朝红.电力市场条件下电力系统可靠性问题[J].电力系统自动化,2000,24(8)：19-22
[132]赵儆,康重庆,夏清等.电力市场条件中可靠性问题的研究现状与发展前景[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(5)：6-10
[133]刘丽芳,殷丽.水电站1OkV母线段备自投设计[J].电力自动化设备,2008,28(2)：116-118
[134]唐海军,杨承卫,姚翔等.电网备用电源自动投入的实践与思考[J].电力自动化设备,2005,25(8)：99-101
[135]甘齐顺,陈金星.电力系统自动装置[M].黄河水利出版社,2008：1-15
[136]杨冠城.电力系统自动装置原理[M].中国电力出版社,2007：1-20
[137]王润琴,赵树运.关于110kV电网“一线两站”备用电源自投回路的改进[J].电 网技术,2000,24(9)：73-74
[138]刘柏私,谢开贵,张红云等.高压配电网典型接线方式的可靠性分析[J].电网技术,2005,29(14)：46-47
[139]李生泽.备用电源自动投入装置的功能实现研究[D].天津大学硕士论文,2007：3-4
[140]慕志恒,张卫星.工厂供电技术[M].山东大学出版社,1995：8-28
[141]应静良.电力系统继电保护与自动化设备手册[M].机械工业出版社,1994：1-15
[142]冯玲.如何防止备自投动作后造成过负荷[J].电气时代,2006,(11)：106-1077
[143]邱健,蔡泽祥,李爱民等.基于N-1准则的备自投投退控制策略[J].电网技术,2009,33(8)：66-71
[144]GRAVENER M. H., NWANKPA C.. Available transfer capability and first order sensitivity[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1999,14(2):512-518
[145]O. Yan, SINGH C.. Assessment of available transfer capability and margins[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2002,17(2):463-468
[146]李振坤,陈星莺,刘皓明等.配电网供电能力的实时评估分析[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(6)：36-39,62
[147]刘皓明,倪以信,吴军基等.计算电网可用输电能力的方法评述[J].继电器,2003,31(10)：45-50
[148]吴际瞬.电力系统静态安全分析[M].上海交大出版社,1985：1-6
[149]金春.基于风险理论的我国高薪技术企业成长时期融资方式研究[D].东北师范大学硕士论文,2007：9-10
[150]陆波,唐国庆.基于风险的安全评估方法在电力系统中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2002,26(22)：61-64
[151]J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal, N. Abi-Samra. An overview of risk based security assessment[A]. IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting[C]. Canada, 1999:58-60
[152]张静.基于效用理论的项目风险评价与投资决策研究[D].合肥工业大学硕士论文,2007：17-18
[153]郭立夫,李北伟.决策理论与方法[M].高等教育出版社,2006：1-15
[154]张国华.电力系统安全可靠性评估的若干关键理论及算法研究[D].华北电力大学博士论文,2009：45-47
[155]齐先军,丁明.发电系统中旋转备用方案的风险分析与效用决策[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(3)：9-13
[156]孔峰,刘鸿雁.AHP综合排序算法分析及其改进[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报, 2009,41(4)：260-263
[157]高强,耿方方,芦杉.基于不确定型AHP的电力光缆线路模糊综合评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2009,37(3)：46-49
[158]F. Xiao, J. McCalley. Contingency Probability Estimation Using Weather and Geographical Data for On-line Security Assessment[A]. Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems[C]. Stockholm, Sweden,2006:112-123
[159]J. McCalley, F. Xiao, Y. Jiang, et al. Computation of Contingency Probabilities for Electric Transmission Decision Problems[A]. Intelligent Systems Applied to Power Systems[C]. Arlington, USA,2005:123-125
[160]刘若溪,张建华,苏玲等.地区电网输电安全水平在线评估算法与系统设计[J].电网技术,2011,35(4)：46-52
[161]张国华,张建华,杨京燕等.基于有向权重图和复杂网络理论的大型电力系统脆弱性评估[J].电力自动化设备,2009,29(4)：21-26
[162]陈晓刚,孙可,曹一家.基于复杂网络理论的大电网结构脆弱性分析[J].电工技术学报,2007,22(10)：138-144
[163]陈晓刚,孙可.基于复杂网络理论的大型电力系统脆弱线路辨识[J].电力自动化设备,2006,26(12)：1-5
[164]吴旭,张建华.基于状态检修的N-K故障在线辨识及路径搜索[J].电网技术,2010,34(2)：81-86
[165]宋毅,王成山.双重故障模式下基于证据理论和功能组分解的N-K故障辨识[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(28)：47-53
[166]Chen Q. M., McCalley J. D.. Identifying high risk N-K contingencies for online security assessment[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2005,20(2):823-834
[167]于会泉,刘文颖,温志伟等.基于线路集群的连锁故障概率分析模型[J].电力系统自动化,2010,34(10)：29-33
[168]陈为化,江全元,曹一家.考虑继电保护隐性故障的电力系统连锁故障风险评估[J].电网技术,2006,30(13)：14-19
[169]管霖,郑传材.线路N-K停运机理及其概率模型[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2009,21(4)：115-119
[170]韩学军,石磊,朱岩等.考虑多重故障的连锁过载分析[J].电网技术,2008,32(16)：86-90
[171]邓慧琼.电网连锁故障预测分析方法及其应用研究[D].华北电力大学博士论文,2007：31-42
[172]花蕊,秦红星,刘斌.基于关系型数据库的变电站两票专家系统[J].高电压技术,2007,33(9)：85-89
[173]张艳,翟学明,胡华威.基于DTD在关系型数据库中存储XML文档[J].计算机工程与设计,2008,29(19)：5073-5076
[174]张海宁,笃峻,祁忠等.稳定控制信息管理系统的Web发布系统[J].电力自动化设备,2009,29(2)：128-131
[175]高强,童晓阳,刘志刚等.基于AJAX的变电站嵌入式Web发布系统的设计与实现[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(9)：57-60
[176]陈星莺,孙恕坚,钱锋.一种基于追踪技术的快速电力网络拓扑分析方法[J].电网技术,2004,28(5)：22-24
[177]吴文传,张伯明.基于图形数据库的网络拓扑及其应用[J].电网技术,2002,26(2)：14-18
[178]朱文东,刘广一,于尔铿等.电力网络局部拓扑的快速算法[J].电网技术,1996,20(3)：30-33
[179]Draft IEC61970:Energy management system application program interface(EMS-API)-Part1:Guidelines and General Requirement[S]
[180]Draft IEC61970:Energy management system application program interface(EMS-API)-Part301:Common Information Mode(CIM)Base[S]
[181]Draft IEC61970:Energy management system application program interface(EMS-API)-Part501:CIM RDF Schema[S]
[182]Wenyuan L.. Risk assessment of power system models, methods and application[M]. New York:John Wiley and Sons,2005:1-2
[183]周家启,任震.电力系统可靠性评估[M].科学技术文献出版社重庆分社出版社,1986：182-208
[184]Allan R. N., Billinton R., Breipohl A. M., et al. Bibliography on the application of probability methods in power system reliability evaluation(1987-1991)[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1994,9(1):41-49
[185]Task Force on Probabilistic Aspects of Reliability Criteria of the IEEE PES Reliability, Risk and Probability Applications Subcommittee[A]. Proceeding of IEEE PES General Meeting [C]. Denver, USA,2004
[186]冯永清,张伯明,吴文传等.基于可信性理论的电力系统运行风险评估：(一)运行风险的提出与发展[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(1)：17-23
[187]冯永清,张伯明,吴文传等.基于可信性理论的电力系统运行风险评估：(二)理论基础[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(2)：11-15
[188]冯永清,张伯明,吴文传等.基于可信性理论的电力系统运行风险评估：(三)应用与工程实践[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(3)：11-16
[189]F. Weihui, McCalley J. D., Risk Based Optimal Power Flow [A]. IEEE Power Tech Proceedings [C]. Porto, Portugal,2001
[190]Billinton R., Allan R. N.. Reliability evaluation of engineering system:concept and techniques[M]. New York:Plenum Press,1992:1-20
[191]郭永基.可靠性工程原理[M].清华出版社,2001：1-18
[192]WAN H., McCalley J. D., VITTAL V.. Increasing thermal rating by risk analysis [J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems Technology,1999,14(3):815-828
[193]郭剑波,印永华,姚国灿.1981-1991电网稳定事故统计分析[J].电网技术,1994,18(2)：58-61
[194]屈靖,郭剑波.“九五”期间我国电网事故统计分析[J].电网技术,2004,28(21)：60-63
[195]王维俭.电气主设备继电保护原理与应用[M].中国电力出版社,1996：1-10
[196]ANDERSON P. M. Power System Protection [M]. New York:McGraw-Hill,1999: 1-20
[197]刘海涛,程林,孙元章等.基于实时运行条件的元件停运因素分析与停运率建模[J].电力系统自动化,2007,31(7)：6-12
[198]王伟,毛安家,张粒子等.条件下电力系统暂态安全风险评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2009,29(1)：68-73
[199]Reliability test system task force. IEEE reliability test system[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Apparatus and Systems,1979,98(6):2047-2054
[200]陈珩.电力系统稳态分析[M].中国电力出版社,2007：1-10
[201]白钟.新疆主电网多台发电机有功功率调节装置的作用分析[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(9)：90-92
[202]BILLINTON R., FOTUHI-FIRUZABAD M. Generating system operating health analysis considering stand-by units, interruptible load and postponable outages[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1994,9(3):1618-1625
[2]薛禹胜.时空协调的大停电防御框架(二)广域信息、在线量化分析和自适应优化控制[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(2)：8-10
[3]薛禹胜.时空协调的大停电防御框架(三)各道防线内部的优化和不同防线之间的协调[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(3)：1-11
[4]C. Cecati, C. Citro, and P. Siano. Combined operations of renewable energy systems and responsive demand in a smart grid[J]. IEEE Trans Sustainable Energy,2011,2 (4):468-476
[5]刘振亚.特高压直流输电理论[M].中国电力出版社,2009：1-10
[6]M. Y. Zhai. Transmission characteristics of low-voltage distribution networks in China under the smart grids environment[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Delivery,2011, 26(1):173-180
[7]Li X B. Study of multi-objective optimization and multi-attribute decision-making for economic and environmental power dispatch[J]. Electric Power Systems Research,2009,79:789-795
[8]Yalcinoz T, Koksoy O. A multiobjective optimization method to environmental economic dispatch[J]. Electrical Power Energy Systems,2007,29:42-50
[9]Basu M. An interactive fuzzy satisfying method based onevolutionary programming technique for multiobjective short-term hydrothermal scheduling[J]. Electrical Power Systems Research,2004,69:277-285
[10]Gjenged T. Emission Constrained Unit-Commitment[J]. IEEE Trans on Energy Constrained,1996,11(1):132-138
[11]LI Wenyuan, Korczynski J. K. Risk Evaluation of Transmission System Operation Modes:Concept, Method and Application[A]. Proceedings of IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting[C]. New York, USA 2002,2:1124-1129
[12]Carreras B A, Newman D E, Dobson I, et al. Evidence for self-organized criticality in a time series of electric power system blackouts[J]. IEEE Trans on Circuits and Systems-Part I,2004,51(9):1733-1740
[13]Wang Hongye, Thorp J S. Optimal locations for protection system enhancement:a simulation of cascading outages[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Delivery,2001, 16(4):528-533
[14]Gooi H B, Mendes D P, Bell K R W, et al. Optimal scheduling of spinning reserve[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,1999,14(4):1485-1492
[15]Conejo A. J., Plazas M. A., Espinola R., et al. Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the wavelet transform and ARIMA models[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2005,20(2):1035-1042
[16]Dahlgren R., Liu C. C., Lawarree J.. Risk assessment in energy trading[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2003,18(2):503-511
[17]Bouffard F., Galiana F. D.. An electricity market with a probabilistic spinning reserve criterion[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2004,19(1):300-307
[18]何大愚.对于美国西部电力系统1996年7月2日大停电事故的初步认识[J].电网技术,1996,20(9)：35-39
[19]韩祯祥,曹一家.电力系统的安全性及防治措施[J].电网技术,2004,28(8)：1-6
[20]U.S-Canada power system outage task force. Final report on the August 14 2003 blackout in the United States and Canada:causes and recommendations[EB/OL]. http://www.nerc.com/,2004
[21]甘德强,明江溢,韩祯祥.2003年国际若干停电事故思考[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(3)：1-5
[22]鲁宗相.解析莫斯科大停电[J].中国电力企业管理,2005,(7)：20,30-31
[23]赵希正.提升服务能力服务行业发展[J].中国电力企业管理,2005,(7)：27
[24]徐伟华,艾芊,周玉光等.莫斯科5·25大停电对中国电力市场发展的启示[J].华东电力,2005,33(7)：45-48
[25]唐斯庆,张弥,李建设等.海南电网“9·26”大面积停电事故的分析与总结[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(1)：1-7,16
[26]本刊编辑.2006年世界各地停电事故[J].水利电力科技,2006,32(4)：46-48
[27]Jishan Ma, Honggeng Yang, Zhijian Yuan. The Application of Autonomous Decentralized AVC System in Regional Power Network[A]. Power and Engergy Enginnering Conference(APPEEC)[C]. Chengdu,2010:1-4
[28]杜红卫,何勇,张瑞鹏等.地区电网调度智能辅助决策软件设计[J].电力系统自动化,2010,34(2)：108-112
[29]吴旭,张建华,邱威等.基于N-K故障的地区电网脆弱性评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(4)：93-99
[30]刘巍.地区电网安全稳定分析[D].西南交通大学硕士学位论文,2008：11-13
[31]周辉.市场条件下的发电投资分析与发电系统运行可靠性研究[D].华中科技大学博士学位论文,2010：45-50
[32]黄常抒,胡云花.备自投装置接线中的问题及应对措施[J].电力自动化设备,2009,29(4)：147-149
[33]黄梅.电力系统自动装置[M].中国电力出版社,2000：1-10
[34]余涛,胡细兵,黄炜等.地区电网广域备自投控制系统研制[J].电力自动化设备,2011,31(3)：121-125
[35]孙鸣,许航.备用电源自动投入装置应用中的误动问题分析及应对措施[J].电力自动化设备,2010,30(4)：144-146
[36]宋国堂,于海鹏,赵文静等.含分布式电源接入的变电站备自投应用问题[J].电力自动化设备,2010,30(7)：147-150
[37]汤大海.基于双电源扩大内桥的备自投解耦控制策略[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(23)：103-107
[38]唐海军.基于光纤通信的远方备自投设计与实现[J].继电器,2006,34(4)：30-33
[39]单永梅,王磊.数字式远方备自投装置[J].电力自动化设备,2005,25(9)：43-46
[40]季学军,周爱敏.利用纵联保护通道实现远方备自投的方案[J].江苏电机工程,2004,23(5)：40-43
[41]范寿忠.备自投过负荷联切功能的实现[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(5)：139-140
[42]陈志峰,吴勇,金滇黔.考虑山区小水电的智能型备自投装置的研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(8)：120-122
[43]刘涛,杜明,时燕新等.基于RTDS的备自投装置的数模试验研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(8)：123-127
[44]刘雪昭,阎成林.重合闸原理在备自投装置中的应用[J].山西电力技术,1998,18(2)：47-49
[45]杜景远,崔艳.微机备自投在济南电网中的应用[J].继电器,1998,29(9)：40-43
[46]胡伟,刘志远.用可编程逻辑控制器(PLC)实现电力系统备用电源自投装置[J].宁夏工程技术,2003,2(2)：135-137
[47]任祖怡,窦乘国,许华乔.新型智能备用电源自投装置[J].电力系统自动化,2003,27(9)：86-87
[48]张国平,陈晖,吕庭钦等.倒送电运行方式中备自投动作分析及技术措施[J].电力系统保护与控制,2009,37(8)：93-95
[49]王攀峰,魏燕,刘立功等.一种面向对象的备自投装置设计方案的研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2009,37(18)：109-111
[50]余加喜.面向时间过程的电网静态安全分析与日发电计划研究[D].哈尔滨工业大学博士学位论文,2009：48-62
[51]陈为化.基于风险的电力系统静态安全分析与预防控制[D].浙江大学博士学位论文,2007：34-46
[52]于尔铿,刘广一,周京阳等.能量管理系统(EMS)[M].科学出版社,1998：1-10
[53]江长明,朱继忠,徐国禹.有功调度中经济性与安全性的协调问题[J].电力系统 自动化,1995,19(11)：43-48
[54]郭志忠.电网自愈方案[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(10)：85-91
[55][W. F. Tinney, C. E. Hart. Power Flow Solution by Newton's Method[J]. IEEE Transaction on PAS,1967,86(11):1449-1460
[56]B. Stott, O. Alsac. Fast Decoupled Load Flow[J]. IEEE Trans on PAS,1974,93(3): 859-869
[57]H. L. Nguyen. Newton-Raphson Method in Complex Form[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1997,12(3):1355-1358
[58]F. Zhang, C. S. Cheng. A Modified Newton for Radial Distribution System Power Flow Analysis[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1997,12(1):389-397
[59]R. A. M. Amerongen. A General Purpose Version of the Fast Decoupled Load Flow[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1989,4(2):760-770
[60]R. D. Zimmerman. H. D. Chiang. Fast Decoupled Power Flow for Unbalanced Radial Distribution Systems[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1995,10(4): 2045-2052
[61]邹森.电力系统安全分析与控制[M].水利电力出版社,1995：1-28
[62]王宪荣,包丽明,柳焯.极坐标系准最优乘子病态潮流解法研究[J].中国电机工程学报,1994,14(1)：40-45
[63]姚玉斌,鲁宝春,陈学允.小阻抗支路对牛顿法潮流的影响及其处理方法[J].电网技术,1999,23(9)：28-32
[64]于继来,王江,柳焯.电力系统潮流算法的几点改进[J].中国电机工程学报,2001,29(9)：88-93
[65]孙键,江道灼,刘志华.基于前推回代的配电网潮流改进算法[J].电力自动化设备,2004,24(3)：81-84
[66]刘觉,金振东.电力市场发展对EMS的新挑战[J].电力系统自动化,1997,21(2)：7-9
[67]Wrubel J N., Rapciendki P. S., Lee K. L.. Practical experience with corrective switching algorithm for on-line applications[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1996, 11(1):415-421
[68]蔡中勤.配电网Newton法潮流及功率矩法研究[D].哈尔滨工业大学博士学位论文,2000,10：61-73
[69]刘伟,郭志忠.配电网安全性指标的研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(8)：85-90
[70]闫国良,王东林,胡笳.基于蒙特卡洛法的配电网安全性评估[J].中国电力教育,2010,26(36)：256-258.
[71]张伯明,吴素农,蔡斌等.电网控制中心安全预警和决策支持系统设计[J].电力 系统自动化,2006,30(6)：1-5
[72]吴文传,张伯明,孙宏斌等.在线安全预警和决策支持系统的软件构架与实现[J].电力系统自动化,2007,31(12)：23-29
[73]王红印,张明亮,孙素琴等.大电网安全可靠运行4级梯度预警预控方法[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(19)：20-24
[74]李建,庞晓艳,李旻等.省级电网在线安全稳定预警及决策支持系统研究与应用[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(22)：97-102
[75]刘磊,吴文宣,黄道姗等.城市电网安全预警与保障决策支持系统[J].华东电力,2008,36(6)：65-67
[76]陈勇,姚玉斌,夏翔等.考虑备自投的地区电网静态安全分析设计与应用[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(19)：84-87,99
[77]张国华,张建华,彭谦等.电网安全评价的指标体系与方法[J].电网技术,2009,33(8)：30-34
[78]程林.大规模电力系统充裕度和安全性算法的研究[D].清华大学博士论文,2000：1-10
[79]程林,郭永基.发输电系统充裕度和安全性算法研究[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(19)：23-26
[80]丁明,李胜虎,吴红斌.电力系统概率充分性和概率稳定性的综合评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(3)：20-25
[81]宋云亭.发输电合成系统可靠性综合评估的智能模型和算法研究[D].清华大学博士论文,2003：1-15
[82]X. B. Yu, C. Singh. A practical approach for interated power system vulnerability analysis with protection failures[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2004,19(4): 1811-1820
[83]赵渊,周家启,刘洋.发输电组合系统可靠性评估的Monte-Carlo仿真及并行处理[J].中国电力,2003,36(11)：19-23
[84]刘洋,周家启,谢开贵等.基于Beowulf集群的大电力系统可靠性评估蒙特卡罗并行仿真[J].中国电机工程学报,2006,26(20)：9-14
[85]刘洋,谢开贵,周家启等.大电力系统可靠性评估高性能计算平台涉及与实现[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(18)：89-93
[86]N. Gubbala, C. Singh. Parallel implementation of Monte Carlo simulation methods for power system reliability evaluation-some problems and solutions[A]. Proceedings of ICPST'94[C]. Beijing,1994:380-384
[87]L. Goel, C. Feng. Well-being framework for composite generation and transmission system reliability evaluation[A]. Proceedings of Electrical Engineering Generation Transmission Distribution[C]. London,1999:528-534
[88]M. Armando, S. Leite, L. C. de Resende, et al. Well-being analysis for composite generation and transmission system[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2004,19(4): 1763-1770
[89]R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, S. Aboreshaid. Power system health analysis[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety,1997,55(1):1-8
[90]R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, S. Aboreshaid. An approach to evaluating system well-being in engineering reliability applications[J]. Reliability Engineering& System Safety,1995,50(1):1-5
[91]丁明,李生虎,吴红斌等.基于充分性和安全性的电力系统运行状态分析和量化评价[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(4)：43-49
[92]R. Billinton, R. N. Allan. Reliability evaluation of power systems(second)[M]. New York and london:Plenum Press,1996:1-28
[93]R. Billinton, A. V. Jain. The effect of rapid start and hot reserve units in spinning reserve studies[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Apparatus and Systems,1972, PAS-91:°511-516
[94]G. B. Lian, R. Billinton. Operating reserve risk assessment in composite power systems[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,1994,9(3):1270-1276
[95]R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad. A basic framework for generating system operating health analysis[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,1994,9(3): 1610-1617
[96]R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad. Generating system operting health analysis considering stand-by units, interruptible load and postponable outages[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,1994,9(3):1618-1625
[97]R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad. Composite systems operating reserve assessment using a reliability framework[A]. Canadian Conference on Electrical and Computer Engineering[C]. Canada,2001
[98]R. Billinton, A. Abdulwhab. Short-term generating unit maintenance scheduling in a deregulated power system using a probabilistic approach[A]. IEE Proceedings of Generation, Transmission and Distribution[C]. London,2003
[99]A. Abdulwhab, R. Billinton. Application of well-being concepts in short term generating unit preventive maintenance scheduling[A]. Canadian Conference on Electrical and Computer Engineering[C]. Canada,2002
[100]孙元章,程林,刘海涛.基于实时运行状态的电力系统运行可靠性评估[J].电网技术,2005,29(15)：6-12
[101]Y. Z. Sun, L. Cheng, H. T. Liu, et al. Power system operational reliability evaluation based on real-time operating state[A]. The 7th International Power Engineering Conference[C]. Singapore,2005
[102]程林,何剑,孙元章.线路实时可靠性模型参数对电网运行可靠性评估的影响[J].电网技术,2006,30(13)：8-13
[103]J. HE, L. Cheng, Y. Z. Sun. Transformer real-time reliability model based on operating conditions[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University,2007,8(3):378-383
[104]何剑,程林,孙元章,等.计及天气预测的电力系统运行可靠性短期评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(10)：31-38,51
[105]何剑,程林,孙元章.电力系统运行可靠性最优控制[J].中国电机工程学报,2010,30(7)：15-21
[106]何剑,程林,孙元章等.条件相依的输变电设备短期可靠性模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2009,29(7)：39-46
[107]M. Ni, J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal, et al. On-line risk-based security assessment[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2003,18(1):258-265
[108]M. Ni, J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal, et al. Software implementation of online risk-based security assessment J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2003,18(3):1165-1172
[109]W. H. Fu, J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal. Risk assessment for transformer loading[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2001,16(3):346-353
[110]Y. J. Dai, J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal. Risk assessment for overload security[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2001,16(4):616-623
[111]H. Wan, J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal. Increasing thermal rating by risk analysis[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,1999,14(3):815-828
[112]J. Zhang, J. Pu, J. D. Mccalley, et al. A bayesian approach for short-term transmission line thermal overload risk assessment[J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Delivery,2002,17(3):770-778
[113]H. Wan, J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal. Risk based voltage security assessment [J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,2000,15(4):1247-1254
[114]J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal, H. Wan, et al. Voltage risk assessment[A]. IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting[C]. Canada,1999
[115]陈为化,江全元,曹一家等.电力系统电压崩溃的风险评估[J].电网技术,2005,29(19)：6-11
[116]S. T. Lee, S. Hofman. Power delivery reliability initiative bears fruit[J]. IEEE Computer Applications in Power,2001,14(3):56-63
[117]V. Vittal, J. D. Mccalley, V. Vanacker, et al. Transient instability risk assessment A]. IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting[C]. Canada,1999
[118]J. D. Mccalley, A. A. Fouad, V. Vittal, et al. A risk-based security index for determining operating limits in stability-limited slsctric power systems [J]. IEEE Transaction on Power Systems,1997,12(3):1210-1219
[119]冯永清,吴文传,孙宏斌等.现代能量控制中心的运行风险评估研究初探[J]. 中国电机工程学报,2005,25(13)：73-79
[120]冯永清,吴文传,张伯明等.基于可信性理论的电力系统运行风险评估(三)应用与工程实践[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(3)：11-16
[121]陈为化,江全元,曹一家.基于风险理论和模糊推理的电压脆弱性评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(24)：20-25
[122]J. Mccalley, S. Asgarpoor, L. Bertling, et al. Probabilistic security assessment for power system operations[A]. IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting[C]. USA,2004:112-113
[123]王秀丽,陈皓勇,甘志等.应用随机生产模拟的发电系统可靠性评估方法[J].电力系统自动化,1999,23(17)：15-19
[124]王锡凡,王秀丽.随机生产模拟及其应用[J].电力系统自动化,2003,27(8)：10-15
[125]周君,丁坚勇.基于神经网络的发电系统可靠性评估方法[J].电力建设,2002,23(7)：53-55
[126]陈举华,赵建国,郭毅之.电力系统可靠性研究的灰关联和模糊贴近度分析方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2002,22(1)：59-63
[127]S. Narasimhan, S. Asgarpoor. A fuzzy-based approach for generation system reliability evaluation[J]. Electric Power Systems Reasearch,2000,53(2):133-138
[128]张焰.电网规划中的模糊可靠性评估方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2000,20(11)：77-80
[129]雷秀仁,任震,陈碧云等.电力系统可靠性评估的不确定性数学模型探讨[J].电力自动化设备,2005,25(11)：1-4
[130]王锡凡,王秀丽,别朝红等.我国发电系统可靠性指标研究[J].中国电力,1999,32(2)：24-28
[131]王锡凡,王秀丽,别朝红.电力市场条件下电力系统可靠性问题[J].电力系统自动化,2000,24(8)：19-22
[132]赵儆,康重庆,夏清等.电力市场条件中可靠性问题的研究现状与发展前景[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(5)：6-10
[133]刘丽芳,殷丽.水电站1OkV母线段备自投设计[J].电力自动化设备,2008,28(2)：116-118
[134]唐海军,杨承卫,姚翔等.电网备用电源自动投入的实践与思考[J].电力自动化设备,2005,25(8)：99-101
[135]甘齐顺,陈金星.电力系统自动装置[M].黄河水利出版社,2008：1-15
[136]杨冠城.电力系统自动装置原理[M].中国电力出版社,2007：1-20
[137]王润琴,赵树运.关于110kV电网“一线两站”备用电源自投回路的改进[J].电 网技术,2000,24(9)：73-74
[138]刘柏私,谢开贵,张红云等.高压配电网典型接线方式的可靠性分析[J].电网技术,2005,29(14)：46-47
[139]李生泽.备用电源自动投入装置的功能实现研究[D].天津大学硕士论文,2007：3-4
[140]慕志恒,张卫星.工厂供电技术[M].山东大学出版社,1995：8-28
[141]应静良.电力系统继电保护与自动化设备手册[M].机械工业出版社,1994：1-15
[142]冯玲.如何防止备自投动作后造成过负荷[J].电气时代,2006,(11)：106-1077
[143]邱健,蔡泽祥,李爱民等.基于N-1准则的备自投投退控制策略[J].电网技术,2009,33(8)：66-71
[144]GRAVENER M. H., NWANKPA C.. Available transfer capability and first order sensitivity[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1999,14(2):512-518
[145]O. Yan, SINGH C.. Assessment of available transfer capability and margins[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2002,17(2):463-468
[146]李振坤,陈星莺,刘皓明等.配电网供电能力的实时评估分析[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(6)：36-39,62
[147]刘皓明,倪以信,吴军基等.计算电网可用输电能力的方法评述[J].继电器,2003,31(10)：45-50
[148]吴际瞬.电力系统静态安全分析[M].上海交大出版社,1985：1-6
[149]金春.基于风险理论的我国高薪技术企业成长时期融资方式研究[D].东北师范大学硕士论文,2007：9-10
[150]陆波,唐国庆.基于风险的安全评估方法在电力系统中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2002,26(22)：61-64
[151]J. D. Mccalley, V. Vittal, N. Abi-Samra. An overview of risk based security assessment[A]. IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting[C]. Canada, 1999:58-60
[152]张静.基于效用理论的项目风险评价与投资决策研究[D].合肥工业大学硕士论文,2007：17-18
[153]郭立夫,李北伟.决策理论与方法[M].高等教育出版社,2006：1-15
[154]张国华.电力系统安全可靠性评估的若干关键理论及算法研究[D].华北电力大学博士论文,2009：45-47
[155]齐先军,丁明.发电系统中旋转备用方案的风险分析与效用决策[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(3)：9-13
[156]孔峰,刘鸿雁.AHP综合排序算法分析及其改进[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报, 2009,41(4)：260-263
[157]高强,耿方方,芦杉.基于不确定型AHP的电力光缆线路模糊综合评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2009,37(3)：46-49
[158]F. Xiao, J. McCalley. Contingency Probability Estimation Using Weather and Geographical Data for On-line Security Assessment[A]. Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems[C]. Stockholm, Sweden,2006:112-123
[159]J. McCalley, F. Xiao, Y. Jiang, et al. Computation of Contingency Probabilities for Electric Transmission Decision Problems[A]. Intelligent Systems Applied to Power Systems[C]. Arlington, USA,2005:123-125
[160]刘若溪,张建华,苏玲等.地区电网输电安全水平在线评估算法与系统设计[J].电网技术,2011,35(4)：46-52
[161]张国华,张建华,杨京燕等.基于有向权重图和复杂网络理论的大型电力系统脆弱性评估[J].电力自动化设备,2009,29(4)：21-26
[162]陈晓刚,孙可,曹一家.基于复杂网络理论的大电网结构脆弱性分析[J].电工技术学报,2007,22(10)：138-144
[163]陈晓刚,孙可.基于复杂网络理论的大型电力系统脆弱线路辨识[J].电力自动化设备,2006,26(12)：1-5
[164]吴旭,张建华.基于状态检修的N-K故障在线辨识及路径搜索[J].电网技术,2010,34(2)：81-86
[165]宋毅,王成山.双重故障模式下基于证据理论和功能组分解的N-K故障辨识[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(28)：47-53
[166]Chen Q. M., McCalley J. D.. Identifying high risk N-K contingencies for online security assessment[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2005,20(2):823-834
[167]于会泉,刘文颖,温志伟等.基于线路集群的连锁故障概率分析模型[J].电力系统自动化,2010,34(10)：29-33
[168]陈为化,江全元,曹一家.考虑继电保护隐性故障的电力系统连锁故障风险评估[J].电网技术,2006,30(13)：14-19
[169]管霖,郑传材.线路N-K停运机理及其概率模型[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2009,21(4)：115-119
[170]韩学军,石磊,朱岩等.考虑多重故障的连锁过载分析[J].电网技术,2008,32(16)：86-90
[171]邓慧琼.电网连锁故障预测分析方法及其应用研究[D].华北电力大学博士论文,2007：31-42
[172]花蕊,秦红星,刘斌.基于关系型数据库的变电站两票专家系统[J].高电压技术,2007,33(9)：85-89
[173]张艳,翟学明,胡华威.基于DTD在关系型数据库中存储XML文档[J].计算机工程与设计,2008,29(19)：5073-5076
[174]张海宁,笃峻,祁忠等.稳定控制信息管理系统的Web发布系统[J].电力自动化设备,2009,29(2)：128-131
[175]高强,童晓阳,刘志刚等.基于AJAX的变电站嵌入式Web发布系统的设计与实现[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(9)：57-60
[176]陈星莺,孙恕坚,钱锋.一种基于追踪技术的快速电力网络拓扑分析方法[J].电网技术,2004,28(5)：22-24
[177]吴文传,张伯明.基于图形数据库的网络拓扑及其应用[J].电网技术,2002,26(2)：14-18
[178]朱文东,刘广一,于尔铿等.电力网络局部拓扑的快速算法[J].电网技术,1996,20(3)：30-33
[179]Draft IEC61970:Energy management system application program interface(EMS-API)-Part1:Guidelines and General Requirement[S]
[180]Draft IEC61970:Energy management system application program interface(EMS-API)-Part301:Common Information Mode(CIM)Base[S]
[181]Draft IEC61970:Energy management system application program interface(EMS-API)-Part501:CIM RDF Schema[S]
[182]Wenyuan L.. Risk assessment of power system models, methods and application[M]. New York:John Wiley and Sons,2005:1-2
[183]周家启,任震.电力系统可靠性评估[M].科学技术文献出版社重庆分社出版社,1986：182-208
[184]Allan R. N., Billinton R., Breipohl A. M., et al. Bibliography on the application of probability methods in power system reliability evaluation(1987-1991)[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1994,9(1):41-49
[185]Task Force on Probabilistic Aspects of Reliability Criteria of the IEEE PES Reliability, Risk and Probability Applications Subcommittee[A]. Proceeding of IEEE PES General Meeting [C]. Denver, USA,2004
[186]冯永清,张伯明,吴文传等.基于可信性理论的电力系统运行风险评估：(一)运行风险的提出与发展[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(1)：17-23
[187]冯永清,张伯明,吴文传等.基于可信性理论的电力系统运行风险评估：(二)理论基础[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(2)：11-15
[188]冯永清,张伯明,吴文传等.基于可信性理论的电力系统运行风险评估：(三)应用与工程实践[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(3)：11-16
[189]F. Weihui, McCalley J. D., Risk Based Optimal Power Flow [A]. IEEE Power Tech Proceedings [C]. Porto, Portugal,2001
[190]Billinton R., Allan R. N.. Reliability evaluation of engineering system:concept and techniques[M]. New York:Plenum Press,1992:1-20
[191]郭永基.可靠性工程原理[M].清华出版社,2001：1-18
[192]WAN H., McCalley J. D., VITTAL V.. Increasing thermal rating by risk analysis [J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems Technology,1999,14(3):815-828
[193]郭剑波,印永华,姚国灿.1981-1991电网稳定事故统计分析[J].电网技术,1994,18(2)：58-61
[194]屈靖,郭剑波.“九五”期间我国电网事故统计分析[J].电网技术,2004,28(21)：60-63
[195]王维俭.电气主设备继电保护原理与应用[M].中国电力出版社,1996：1-10
[196]ANDERSON P. M. Power System Protection [M]. New York:McGraw-Hill,1999: 1-20
[197]刘海涛,程林,孙元章等.基于实时运行条件的元件停运因素分析与停运率建模[J].电力系统自动化,2007,31(7)：6-12
[198]王伟,毛安家,张粒子等.条件下电力系统暂态安全风险评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2009,29(1)：68-73
[199]Reliability test system task force. IEEE reliability test system[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Apparatus and Systems,1979,98(6):2047-2054
[200]陈珩.电力系统稳态分析[M].中国电力出版社,2007：1-10
[201]白钟.新疆主电网多台发电机有功功率调节装置的作用分析[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(9)：90-92
[202]BILLINTON R., FOTUHI-FIRUZABAD M. Generating system operating health analysis considering stand-by units, interruptible load and postponable outages[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1994,9(3):1618-1625