基于状态检修的N-k故障辨识及路径搜索
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摘要
本文将状态检修与大面积停电问题结合起来,提出一种基于状态检修(Condition Based Maintenance, CBM)的N-k故障分析方法。研究了针对连锁故障缓慢相继开断阶段的系统状态搜索法,应用功能组(Functional Group, FG)分解理论及相关改进后的搜索方法实现N-k故障的辨识。根据状态检修实时数据推算出设备当前故障率,将小概率事件近似原则和事件树分析法应用于电力系统的N-k故障研究中,建立了N-k故障概率的分析模型。基于概率优先排序的搜索策略并根据电网实际运行方式以及状态检修的监测情况实现了N-k故障路径的在线搜索及筛选。最后,利用VC++语言实现了所提方法,并以安阳电网的3个变电站为例进行仿真计算,验证了方法的正确性。
Combining Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) with large-area power-failure, an N-k contingency analysis method based on CBM is proposed. First, a search method for system state is studied, which aims at slow continual outage stage. By use of the theory of functional group decomposition and modified searching approach, N-k contingency identification is implemented. On the basis of real-time data of CBM, the current failure probability of equipments is calculated. Applying rare event approximation and event tree analysis technique to the study of N-k contingency, the failure probability model for N-k contingency is built. According to actual operation modes of power network and monitoring results of CBM, the online searching and screening of N-k contingency path is achieved, based on probability prioritization strategy. Finally, the proposed algorithm is realized by VC++ language. Taking three substations in Anyang power network for example, the correctness of the proposed method is verified.
Combining Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) with large-area power-failure, an N-k contingency analysis method based on CBM is proposed. First, a search method for system state is studied, which aims at slow continual outage stage. By use of the theory of functional group decomposition and modified searching approach, N-k contingency identification is implemented. On the basis of real-time data of CBM, the current failure probability of equipments is calculated. Applying rare event approximation and event tree analysis technique to the study of N-k contingency, the failure probability model for N-k contingency is built. According to actual operation modes of power network and monitoring results of CBM, the online searching and screening of N-k contingency path is achieved, based on probability prioritization strategy. Finally, the proposed algorithm is realized by VC++ language. Taking three substations in Anyang power network for example, the correctness of the proposed method is verified.
引文
[1]卢强.“我国电力大系统灾变防治与经济运行的重大科学问题的研究”项目简介[J].电力系统自动化,2000,24(1)：6
[2]韩祯祥,曹一家.电力系统的安全性及防治措施[J].电网技术,2004,28(9)：1-6
[3]何大愚.对于美国西部电力系统1996年7月2日大停电事故的初步认识[J].电网技术,1996,20(9)：35-39
[4]Morison K, Yirga S. System disturbance stability studies for WSCC[R]. California: Electric Power Research Institute,1997,21(3):96-99
[5]卢卫星,舒印彪,史连军.美国西部电力系统1996年8月10日大停电事故[J].电网技术,1996,20(9)：40-42
[6]U.S.-Canada power system outage task force. Final report on the August 14,2003 blackout in the United States and Canada:causes and recommendations[EB/OL]. April,2004. http://www.nerc.com/
[7]鲁宗相.解析莫斯科大停电[J].中国电力企业管理,2005,(7)：20,30～31
[8]张国华,张建华,杨志栋,等.电力系统N-k故障的风险评估方法.电网技术,2009,33(5)：17-21
[9]邓慧琼,艾欣,张东英,等.基于不确定多属性决策理论的电网连锁故障模式搜索方法[J].电网技术,2005,29(13)：50-55
[10]周宗发,艾欣,邓慧琼,等.基于故障树和模糊推理的电网连锁故障分析方法[J].电网技术,2006,30(8)：86～91
[11]黄俊.电网状态检修实现方案的探讨.中小企业管理与科技,2009年第1期：220
[12]许婧,王晶,高峰,等.电力设备状态检修技术研究综述[J].电网技术,2000,24(8)：48～52
[13]余晓丹,贾宏杰,陈建华.电力系统连锁故障预测初探[J].电网技术,2006,30(13)：20～25
[14]Albert R, Barabasi A-L. Statistical mechanics of complex networks[J]. Review of Modern Physics,2002,74(1):47-97
[15]Newman M.E.J.. The structure and function of complex networks[J]. SIAM Review,2003,45(1):167-256
[16]于群,郭剑波.中国电网停电事故统计与自组织临界性特征[J].电力系统自动
化,2005,30(2)：16-21
[17]别朝红,王锡凡.复杂电力系统一类连锁反应事故可靠性评估模型和算法[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(20)：30～34
[18]Rozel, B., Caire, R., Hadjsaid, N., et al. Complex Network Theory and Graph Partitioning:Application to large interconnected networks. In:2009 IEEE Bucharest Power Tech Conference, Bucharest:2009.1-6
[19]Dwivedi, A., Xinghuo Yu, Sokolowski, P. Identifying vulnerable lines in a power network using complex network theory. In:IEEE International Symposium on Industrial Electronics (ISIE), Seoul:2009.18-23
[20]林振智,文福拴.基于加权复杂网络模型的恢复路径优化方法.电力系统自动化,2009,33(6)：11～15
[21]Dobson I, Carreras B A, Newman D E. A probabilistic loading-dependent model of cascading failure and possible implications for blackouts[C]. Hawaii International Conference on System Science, Hawaii,2003
[22]邓慧琼,艾欣,罗啸.电网连锁故障防治策略初探及连锁过载识别方法研究.现代电力,2007,24(1)：5-11
[23]韩祯祥,曹一家.电力系统的安全性及防治措施[J].电网技术,2004,28(9)：1-6
[24]宋毅,王成山.双重故障模式下基于证据理论和功能组合分解的N-k事故辨识方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(28)：47-53
[25]宋毅,王成山.一种电力系统连锁故障的概率风险评估方法.中国电机工程学报,2009,29(4)：27～33
[26]丁明,李生虎,吴红斌.电力系统概率充分性和概率稳定性的综合评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(3)：20-25
[27]Rios M.A., Kirschen D.S., Jayaweera D., et al. Value of security:modeling time-dependent phenomena and weather conditions[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2002.543-548
[28]王成山,余旭阳.基于能量函数的暂态稳定概率分析方法[J].电力系统自动化,2003,27(6)：5～9
[29]Bie Zhaohong, Wang Xifan. Evaluation of power system cascading outages[A]. Proceedings of International Conference on Power System Technology[C]. Kunming, China:2002,415-419
[30]李仕雄,姚令侃,蒋良潍.影响沙堆自组织临界性的内因和外因[J].科技通报,2003,19(4)：278～281
[31]孙可,韩祯祥,曹一家.复杂电网连锁故障模型评述.电网技术,2005,29(13)： 1-9
[32]邓慧琼,艾欣,赵亮.电网连锁故障分析方法评述.现代电力,2006,23(6)：10-20
[33]Dobson I, Carreras B A, Lynch V E, et al. Complex systems analysis of series of blackouts:cascading failure, criticality, and self-organization[C]. Bulk Power System Dynamics and Control-Ⅵ, Italy,2004
[34]Dobson I, Carreras B A, Newman D E. A branching process approximation to cascading load-dependent system failure[C].35th Hawaii International Conference on System Science, Hawaii,2004
[35]孟仲伟,鲁宗相,宋靖雁.中美电网的小世界拓扑模型比较分析[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(15)：21-24
[36]陈晓刚,孙可,曹一家.基于复杂网络理论的大电网结构脆弱性分析.电工技术学报,2007,22(10)：138-144
[37]Watts D J. A simple model of global cascades on random networks[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2002,99(9):5766-5771
[38]Holme P, Kim BJ. Vertex overload breakdown in evolving networks[J]. Physical Review E,2002,65(1):066109
[39]Watts D J. Small-worlds:The dynamics of networks between order and randomness[J]. The American Mathematical Monthly,2000,107(7):664-668
[40]Watts D J, Strogatz S H. Collective dynamics of "small-world" networks[J]. Nature,1998,393(6):440-442
[41]易俊,周孝信.考虑系统频率特性以及保护隐藏故障的电网连锁故障模型.电力系统自动化,2006,30(14)：1-5
[42]王爽,艾欣.考虑因果关系的电力系统连锁故障研究.第24届全国高校电力系统及其自动化年会,2008年10月,中国农业大学
[43]陈为化,江全元,曹一家.考虑继电保护隐性故障的电力系统连锁故障风险评估.电网技术,2006,30(13)：14-19
[44]霍超,张沛超,廖晓辉.考虑隐性故障的继电保护重要度分析方法.华东电力,2008,36(3)：62～65
[45]张国华,张建华,杨志栋,等.电力系统N-k故障的风险评估方法[J].电网技术,2009,33(5)：17-21
[46]薛禹胜.综合防御由偶然故障演化为电力灾难—北美“8.14”大停电的警示.电力系统自动化,2003,27(18)：1-5
[47]宋云亭,郭永基,程林.电力系统可靠性基本数据的统计分析[J].继电器,2002,30(17)：14～16
[48]张黎,张波.电气设备故障率参数的一种最优估计算法[J].继电器,2005,33(17)：31～34
[49]任震,张静伟,张晋昕.基于偏最小二乘法的设备故障率计算[J].电网技术,2005,29(5)：12-15
[50]Chen Qiming, McCalley J D. Identifying high risk N-k contingencies for online security assessment[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2005,20(2):823-834
[51]韩学军,石磊,朱岩,等.考虑多重故障的连锁过载分析[J].电网技术,2008,32(16)：86～90
[52]周建方,唐椿炎,许智勇.事件树、故障树、决策树与贝叶斯网络.河海大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(3)：351～355
[53]吴文传,宁辽逸,张伯明,等.一种考虑二次设备模型的在线静态运行风险评估方法.电力系统自动化,2008,32(7)：1-5
[2]韩祯祥,曹一家.电力系统的安全性及防治措施[J].电网技术,2004,28(9)：1-6
[3]何大愚.对于美国西部电力系统1996年7月2日大停电事故的初步认识[J].电网技术,1996,20(9)：35-39
[4]Morison K, Yirga S. System disturbance stability studies for WSCC[R]. California: Electric Power Research Institute,1997,21(3):96-99
[5]卢卫星,舒印彪,史连军.美国西部电力系统1996年8月10日大停电事故[J].电网技术,1996,20(9)：40-42
[6]U.S.-Canada power system outage task force. Final report on the August 14,2003 blackout in the United States and Canada:causes and recommendations[EB/OL]. April,2004. http://www.nerc.com/
[7]鲁宗相.解析莫斯科大停电[J].中国电力企业管理,2005,(7)：20,30～31
[8]张国华,张建华,杨志栋,等.电力系统N-k故障的风险评估方法.电网技术,2009,33(5)：17-21
[9]邓慧琼,艾欣,张东英,等.基于不确定多属性决策理论的电网连锁故障模式搜索方法[J].电网技术,2005,29(13)：50-55
[10]周宗发,艾欣,邓慧琼,等.基于故障树和模糊推理的电网连锁故障分析方法[J].电网技术,2006,30(8)：86～91
[11]黄俊.电网状态检修实现方案的探讨.中小企业管理与科技,2009年第1期：220
[12]许婧,王晶,高峰,等.电力设备状态检修技术研究综述[J].电网技术,2000,24(8)：48～52
[13]余晓丹,贾宏杰,陈建华.电力系统连锁故障预测初探[J].电网技术,2006,30(13)：20～25
[14]Albert R, Barabasi A-L. Statistical mechanics of complex networks[J]. Review of Modern Physics,2002,74(1):47-97
[15]Newman M.E.J.. The structure and function of complex networks[J]. SIAM Review,2003,45(1):167-256
[16]于群,郭剑波.中国电网停电事故统计与自组织临界性特征[J].电力系统自动
化,2005,30(2)：16-21
[17]别朝红,王锡凡.复杂电力系统一类连锁反应事故可靠性评估模型和算法[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(20)：30～34
[18]Rozel, B., Caire, R., Hadjsaid, N., et al. Complex Network Theory and Graph Partitioning:Application to large interconnected networks. In:2009 IEEE Bucharest Power Tech Conference, Bucharest:2009.1-6
[19]Dwivedi, A., Xinghuo Yu, Sokolowski, P. Identifying vulnerable lines in a power network using complex network theory. In:IEEE International Symposium on Industrial Electronics (ISIE), Seoul:2009.18-23
[20]林振智,文福拴.基于加权复杂网络模型的恢复路径优化方法.电力系统自动化,2009,33(6)：11～15
[21]Dobson I, Carreras B A, Newman D E. A probabilistic loading-dependent model of cascading failure and possible implications for blackouts[C]. Hawaii International Conference on System Science, Hawaii,2003
[22]邓慧琼,艾欣,罗啸.电网连锁故障防治策略初探及连锁过载识别方法研究.现代电力,2007,24(1)：5-11
[23]韩祯祥,曹一家.电力系统的安全性及防治措施[J].电网技术,2004,28(9)：1-6
[24]宋毅,王成山.双重故障模式下基于证据理论和功能组合分解的N-k事故辨识方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(28)：47-53
[25]宋毅,王成山.一种电力系统连锁故障的概率风险评估方法.中国电机工程学报,2009,29(4)：27～33
[26]丁明,李生虎,吴红斌.电力系统概率充分性和概率稳定性的综合评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(3)：20-25
[27]Rios M.A., Kirschen D.S., Jayaweera D., et al. Value of security:modeling time-dependent phenomena and weather conditions[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2002.543-548
[28]王成山,余旭阳.基于能量函数的暂态稳定概率分析方法[J].电力系统自动化,2003,27(6)：5～9
[29]Bie Zhaohong, Wang Xifan. Evaluation of power system cascading outages[A]. Proceedings of International Conference on Power System Technology[C]. Kunming, China:2002,415-419
[30]李仕雄,姚令侃,蒋良潍.影响沙堆自组织临界性的内因和外因[J].科技通报,2003,19(4)：278～281
[31]孙可,韩祯祥,曹一家.复杂电网连锁故障模型评述.电网技术,2005,29(13)： 1-9
[32]邓慧琼,艾欣,赵亮.电网连锁故障分析方法评述.现代电力,2006,23(6)：10-20
[33]Dobson I, Carreras B A, Lynch V E, et al. Complex systems analysis of series of blackouts:cascading failure, criticality, and self-organization[C]. Bulk Power System Dynamics and Control-Ⅵ, Italy,2004
[34]Dobson I, Carreras B A, Newman D E. A branching process approximation to cascading load-dependent system failure[C].35th Hawaii International Conference on System Science, Hawaii,2004
[35]孟仲伟,鲁宗相,宋靖雁.中美电网的小世界拓扑模型比较分析[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(15)：21-24
[36]陈晓刚,孙可,曹一家.基于复杂网络理论的大电网结构脆弱性分析.电工技术学报,2007,22(10)：138-144
[37]Watts D J. A simple model of global cascades on random networks[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2002,99(9):5766-5771
[38]Holme P, Kim BJ. Vertex overload breakdown in evolving networks[J]. Physical Review E,2002,65(1):066109
[39]Watts D J. Small-worlds:The dynamics of networks between order and randomness[J]. The American Mathematical Monthly,2000,107(7):664-668
[40]Watts D J, Strogatz S H. Collective dynamics of "small-world" networks[J]. Nature,1998,393(6):440-442
[41]易俊,周孝信.考虑系统频率特性以及保护隐藏故障的电网连锁故障模型.电力系统自动化,2006,30(14)：1-5
[42]王爽,艾欣.考虑因果关系的电力系统连锁故障研究.第24届全国高校电力系统及其自动化年会,2008年10月,中国农业大学
[43]陈为化,江全元,曹一家.考虑继电保护隐性故障的电力系统连锁故障风险评估.电网技术,2006,30(13)：14-19
[44]霍超,张沛超,廖晓辉.考虑隐性故障的继电保护重要度分析方法.华东电力,2008,36(3)：62～65
[45]张国华,张建华,杨志栋,等.电力系统N-k故障的风险评估方法[J].电网技术,2009,33(5)：17-21
[46]薛禹胜.综合防御由偶然故障演化为电力灾难—北美“8.14”大停电的警示.电力系统自动化,2003,27(18)：1-5
[47]宋云亭,郭永基,程林.电力系统可靠性基本数据的统计分析[J].继电器,2002,30(17)：14～16
[48]张黎,张波.电气设备故障率参数的一种最优估计算法[J].继电器,2005,33(17)：31～34
[49]任震,张静伟,张晋昕.基于偏最小二乘法的设备故障率计算[J].电网技术,2005,29(5)：12-15
[50]Chen Qiming, McCalley J D. Identifying high risk N-k contingencies for online security assessment[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2005,20(2):823-834
[51]韩学军,石磊,朱岩,等.考虑多重故障的连锁过载分析[J].电网技术,2008,32(16)：86～90
[52]周建方,唐椿炎,许智勇.事件树、故障树、决策树与贝叶斯网络.河海大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(3)：351～355
[53]吴文传,宁辽逸,张伯明,等.一种考虑二次设备模型的在线静态运行风险评估方法.电力系统自动化,2008,32(7)：1-5