风险管理在工艺设备安装项目中的研究与实现
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摘要
随着全球电子市场的竞争愈演愈烈,合并重组、扩大公司规模,利用规模效益帮助公司在竞争中获胜已经成为很多跨国公司主要战略。在电子制造和封装测试企业,如何控制项目风险,成功完成公司的合并重组,并同时保证公司正常运营生产,保证公司的市场竞争优势就变得尤为重要。
本文从项目管理的角度出发,应用PMBOK项目管理知识体系中风险管理的知识,研究如何在工厂合并改造工艺设备安装项目中实现风险管理。
首先,按风险管理的流程,根据公司企业环境因素和组织流程资产等因素,建立风险管理规划。之后,使用头脑风暴法,核对表法,鱼骨图法等工具与方法进行项目风险识别,得到原始的风险登记册。在此基础上,对项目风险进行定性分析,给出项目风险发生的概率与发生后可能产生的影响的估值,应用概率与影响矩阵的方法计算风险值,对项目风险排序,确定优先级别。并根据需要,对其中高危风险进一步通过决策树分析,数理统计分析等方法进行了定量分析。然后,在风险分析与评估的基础上,有针对性的采取不同的风险应对措施,制定相应的风险应对计划。最后,通过需求变更控制,揭示了如何通过监控风险计划的执行,完善风险管理计划,降低项目执行中的风险。
通过在这个项目中对风险管理的研究与实施,我们普及了PMBOK的风险知识,制定了合适的风险控制及应对计划,有效地管理与控制了项目的风险,最后成功地完成了工厂合并改造项目。本文最后通过对项目的回顾分析,总结了项目风险管理中的经验与教训,并对未来项目风险管理可提高的方面进行了展望。
With the development of worldwide economy and escalating competition in global electronic product market, one of the most important strategies is to enlarge company scale and improve efficiency via corporate consolidation. How to control risks, and realize merge and consolidation smoothly without impacting the normal business operation becomes prominent, especially in assembly and test manufactory.
The objective of this article is to show research and implementation of project risk management base on PMBOK in process equipment installation during factory merge and consolidation.
First of all, this article presents the process flow of the project risk management. Then follow the process flow, set up risk management plan with the inputs from company environment factors and organization process assets as well as project scope description etc. After that, use brainstorming, checklist, fishbone diagram etc. methods and tools to identify risks, come out initial risk register file. And then, base on pre-defined criteria, evaluate the probability and impacts for each identified risk, use probability and impact matrix to calculate each risk exposures, and prioritize all risks base on the risk exposures. For the high possibility high impact risks, use quantitative analysis method such as decision tree and statistics method to evaluate them and if necessary, re-prioritize risks. Then, utilize appropriate risk mitigation method for prioritized risks, come out the risk mitigation plan. Finally, monitor implementation of risk mitigation plan and improve risk management plan during project execution to reduce project risk impact.
With implementation of risk management in this project, team members got to know about concepts and knowledge of risk management, established valuable risk factor database and mitigation plans. The project risks were controlled and managed effectively, the merge of the factory accomplished successfully per plan. At the end of this article, key learning is summarized and advices are given which could be utilized on other similar projects.
本文从项目管理的角度出发,应用PMBOK项目管理知识体系中风险管理的知识,研究如何在工厂合并改造工艺设备安装项目中实现风险管理。
首先,按风险管理的流程,根据公司企业环境因素和组织流程资产等因素,建立风险管理规划。之后,使用头脑风暴法,核对表法,鱼骨图法等工具与方法进行项目风险识别,得到原始的风险登记册。在此基础上,对项目风险进行定性分析,给出项目风险发生的概率与发生后可能产生的影响的估值,应用概率与影响矩阵的方法计算风险值,对项目风险排序,确定优先级别。并根据需要,对其中高危风险进一步通过决策树分析,数理统计分析等方法进行了定量分析。然后,在风险分析与评估的基础上,有针对性的采取不同的风险应对措施,制定相应的风险应对计划。最后,通过需求变更控制,揭示了如何通过监控风险计划的执行,完善风险管理计划,降低项目执行中的风险。
通过在这个项目中对风险管理的研究与实施,我们普及了PMBOK的风险知识,制定了合适的风险控制及应对计划,有效地管理与控制了项目的风险,最后成功地完成了工厂合并改造项目。本文最后通过对项目的回顾分析,总结了项目风险管理中的经验与教训,并对未来项目风险管理可提高的方面进行了展望。
With the development of worldwide economy and escalating competition in global electronic product market, one of the most important strategies is to enlarge company scale and improve efficiency via corporate consolidation. How to control risks, and realize merge and consolidation smoothly without impacting the normal business operation becomes prominent, especially in assembly and test manufactory.
The objective of this article is to show research and implementation of project risk management base on PMBOK in process equipment installation during factory merge and consolidation.
First of all, this article presents the process flow of the project risk management. Then follow the process flow, set up risk management plan with the inputs from company environment factors and organization process assets as well as project scope description etc. After that, use brainstorming, checklist, fishbone diagram etc. methods and tools to identify risks, come out initial risk register file. And then, base on pre-defined criteria, evaluate the probability and impacts for each identified risk, use probability and impact matrix to calculate each risk exposures, and prioritize all risks base on the risk exposures. For the high possibility high impact risks, use quantitative analysis method such as decision tree and statistics method to evaluate them and if necessary, re-prioritize risks. Then, utilize appropriate risk mitigation method for prioritized risks, come out the risk mitigation plan. Finally, monitor implementation of risk mitigation plan and improve risk management plan during project execution to reduce project risk impact.
With implementation of risk management in this project, team members got to know about concepts and knowledge of risk management, established valuable risk factor database and mitigation plans. The project risks were controlled and managed effectively, the merge of the factory accomplished successfully per plan. At the end of this article, key learning is summarized and advices are given which could be utilized on other similar projects.
引文
[1]工程项目风险管理的现状及应对措施,张卫东,王向群,宋爱东, mypm.net,2007-10-15
[2] NPR 7120.5D NASA Space Flight Program and Project Management Requirements,美国国家航空和宇宙航行局(NASA)
[3] Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners, New Version 1.1 of November 12, 2002,美国国家航空和宇宙航行局(NASA)
[4] Chris Miles,Cristy Stebbins,Mike Godbehere etc.,Risk Assessment & Mitigation Process Guide, Rev. 3, 5 December, 2002,Intel
[5] Alquier A. M.,Blanc Tignol,M. H. Lagasse,Risk management in small- and medium-sized enterprises,Production Planning & Control,Apr2006,Vol. 17 Issue 3,p273-282
[6] Project Management Institute Inc.,A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, Third Edition,ANSI/PMI 99-001-2004,Pennsylvania USA.237-264
[7] Tah J. H. M.,Carr V.,Information modeling for a construction project risk management system,Engineering Construction & Architectural Management (Blackwell Publishing Limited),Jun2000,Vol. 7 Issue 2,p107,13p,1 chart,7 diagrams,1bw; (AN 5217260)
[8] (美)哈维A.莱文(Harvey A. Levine)著,闫军译,项目管理实战技巧与工具,清华大学出版社
[9]陈志风,项目风险管理技术与方法——德尔菲法,2007,项目管理者联盟
[10]熊光强,风险管理软件Monte Carlo简单认识,2007,项目管理者联盟
[11] Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) Concepts and Applications by Dr. William Vesely NASA HQ. See all 194 charts in Dr. Vesely's FTA course. (PDF),美国国家航空和宇宙航行局(NASA)
[12]孙斌,工程索赔风险管理研究,[学位论文],西南交通大学,2005
[13]陈娟,EPC交钥匙合同方式下国际工程承包项目的风险管理,[学位论文],对外经济贸易大学,2006
[14]方俊,建设项目工程变更的风险分析与评价,2007,项目管理者联盟
[15]浙江工程造价信息网,工程风险及应对策略的探讨,2007,项目管理者联盟
[16]金马威工程咨询,项目风险控制与转移,2007,项目管理者联盟
[17]全德民,工程项目全寿命期风险管理系统理论及集成研究,[学位论文],天津大学管理学院,2006
[18]曲东,基于EPCIMS的工程项目风险管理研究,[学位论文],天津大学,2004
[19] Using Forecasting Markets to Manage Demand Risk. The Spectrum of Risk Management in a Technology Company. Volume 11 Issue 02 Published,May 16, 2007,ISSN1535-864X DOI:10.1535/itj.1102.04 Intel Technology Journal
[20]钟学燕,信息系统的需求波动风险管理研究,[学位论文],西南交通大学,2006
[21]杨冰花,产品开发流程中的若干问题研究,[学位论文],西安电子科技大学,2004
[22]周立军,风险管理——企业可持续发展的保障, 2007 ,项目管理者联盟:http://www.mypm.net/
[23] Noor Iqbal,Tichacek Robert L,Contingency Misuse and Other Risk Management Pitfalls, AACE International Transactions, 2004
[24] Benjamin C.W.,Hon-Yue Chou,Wu M.B.C.,Chang D.H.C.,The Risks of Risk Management, Management of Innovation and Technology,2006 IEEE International Conference on Volume 2,June 2006 Page(s):708 - 712
[25] Bob Predmore,The Many Faces of Risk Management, Intel
[26]韩思强,四川美丰“20工程”项目中的风险管理研究,[学位论文],西南交通大学,2006
[27]邱菀华沈建明杨爱华等编著,现代项目管理导论,机械工业出版社
[28] Intel University, Project Risk Management Instructor Guide,IU Rev 3a, September, 2006
[29]克利福德.格雷,埃里克拉森著,王立文,徐涛,张扬,译注,.项目管理教程双语教学版(in English),第二版,北京人民邮电出版社和美国麦格劳-希尔教育(亚洲)出版公司合作出版,2005. 217-229
[30] (美)保罗S.罗耶(Paul S. Royer)著,北京广联达慧中软件技术有限公司译,项目风险管理一种主动的策略,机械工业出版社
[2] NPR 7120.5D NASA Space Flight Program and Project Management Requirements,美国国家航空和宇宙航行局(NASA)
[3] Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners, New Version 1.1 of November 12, 2002,美国国家航空和宇宙航行局(NASA)
[4] Chris Miles,Cristy Stebbins,Mike Godbehere etc.,Risk Assessment & Mitigation Process Guide, Rev. 3, 5 December, 2002,Intel
[5] Alquier A. M.,Blanc Tignol,M. H. Lagasse,Risk management in small- and medium-sized enterprises,Production Planning & Control,Apr2006,Vol. 17 Issue 3,p273-282
[6] Project Management Institute Inc.,A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, Third Edition,ANSI/PMI 99-001-2004,Pennsylvania USA.237-264
[7] Tah J. H. M.,Carr V.,Information modeling for a construction project risk management system,Engineering Construction & Architectural Management (Blackwell Publishing Limited),Jun2000,Vol. 7 Issue 2,p107,13p,1 chart,7 diagrams,1bw; (AN 5217260)
[8] (美)哈维A.莱文(Harvey A. Levine)著,闫军译,项目管理实战技巧与工具,清华大学出版社
[9]陈志风,项目风险管理技术与方法——德尔菲法,2007,项目管理者联盟
[10]熊光强,风险管理软件Monte Carlo简单认识,2007,项目管理者联盟
[11] Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) Concepts and Applications by Dr. William Vesely NASA HQ. See all 194 charts in Dr. Vesely's FTA course. (PDF),美国国家航空和宇宙航行局(NASA)
[12]孙斌,工程索赔风险管理研究,[学位论文],西南交通大学,2005
[13]陈娟,EPC交钥匙合同方式下国际工程承包项目的风险管理,[学位论文],对外经济贸易大学,2006
[14]方俊,建设项目工程变更的风险分析与评价,2007,项目管理者联盟
[15]浙江工程造价信息网,工程风险及应对策略的探讨,2007,项目管理者联盟
[16]金马威工程咨询,项目风险控制与转移,2007,项目管理者联盟
[17]全德民,工程项目全寿命期风险管理系统理论及集成研究,[学位论文],天津大学管理学院,2006
[18]曲东,基于EPCIMS的工程项目风险管理研究,[学位论文],天津大学,2004
[19] Using Forecasting Markets to Manage Demand Risk. The Spectrum of Risk Management in a Technology Company. Volume 11 Issue 02 Published,May 16, 2007,ISSN1535-864X DOI:10.1535/itj.1102.04 Intel Technology Journal
[20]钟学燕,信息系统的需求波动风险管理研究,[学位论文],西南交通大学,2006
[21]杨冰花,产品开发流程中的若干问题研究,[学位论文],西安电子科技大学,2004
[22]周立军,风险管理——企业可持续发展的保障, 2007 ,项目管理者联盟:http://www.mypm.net/
[23] Noor Iqbal,Tichacek Robert L,Contingency Misuse and Other Risk Management Pitfalls, AACE International Transactions, 2004
[24] Benjamin C.W.,Hon-Yue Chou,Wu M.B.C.,Chang D.H.C.,The Risks of Risk Management, Management of Innovation and Technology,2006 IEEE International Conference on Volume 2,June 2006 Page(s):708 - 712
[25] Bob Predmore,The Many Faces of Risk Management, Intel
[26]韩思强,四川美丰“20工程”项目中的风险管理研究,[学位论文],西南交通大学,2006
[27]邱菀华沈建明杨爱华等编著,现代项目管理导论,机械工业出版社
[28] Intel University, Project Risk Management Instructor Guide,IU Rev 3a, September, 2006
[29]克利福德.格雷,埃里克拉森著,王立文,徐涛,张扬,译注,.项目管理教程双语教学版(in English),第二版,北京人民邮电出版社和美国麦格劳-希尔教育(亚洲)出版公司合作出版,2005. 217-229
[30] (美)保罗S.罗耶(Paul S. Royer)著,北京广联达慧中软件技术有限公司译,项目风险管理一种主动的策略,机械工业出版社