可持续发展经济理论及指标体系研究
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摘要
可持续发展是一个涉及经济、社会、人口、资源、环境、文化等众多领域的全面发展。现代经济发展过程中出现的人口压力、资源耗竭以及环境污染直接导致了可持续发展问题的提出。在众多学者对可持续发展的不倦探索和在已有的各学科理论的滋养下,可持续发展理论已初具雏形,可持续发展观念已被普遍接受。
对可持续发展论述的目的,就是要建立了一个清晰的可持续发展框架以便于深入研究。在微观经济分析部分,明确指出主流经济理论中若干非持续性假定;外部性的存在使得社会资源配置效率低下,社会净福利遭受损失,是经济发展不可持续的根源。消除外部性的根本措施是外部成本内在化,产权明晰和政府干预也是重要的手段;对正效用的偏好可以内在地调节代际资源配置不公。宏观经济分析论证了可持续发展的非线性,说明全球同时踏上可持续发展的道路是不现实的。尽管发达国家和发展中国家存在着不同的可持续和发展偏好,但走向联合是必然趋势,拓展的蜈蚣博弈、无名氏定理等对此也予以了证明。运用IS-LM-EE曲线探讨三市场的均衡变动时,明确地反映出货币政策、财政政策和环境政策在宏观经济调控中的相互协调过程。
在Romer内生增长理论上构建的反映资本全貌的生产函数是本文的亮点之一。各人均变量变化率、储蓄率、人口增长率、折旧率以及各资本投入弹性之间复杂密切的关系可以在严密的数学推导中反映出来,人均资本增长率和人均收入变化率的取值及变动范围也得到确定。本文构建的增长模型可预见凭直觉难以洞悉的细节,并得出一些与理论和事实相符的结论。该模型是对可持续发展理论的丰富。
在对可持续发展指标体系及评价方法论述时,研究显著侧重于GGDP、GS和EF部分,以此为后续的实证研究做充分铺垫。此外,在Weitzman和Hartwick的研究框架下提出了单一绿色国民核算模型。实证部分通过对1991～2003年中国、内蒙古和天津市的经济进行定量评估,得出了许多可供科学决策的依据,开辟了一条可行的核算思路。
Sustainable development is a comprehensive one involving economy, society, population, resource, environment, culture and many other fields. In the process of modern economic development, pressure of population, depletion of resource and pollution of environment resulted in the issue of sustainable development being put forward directly. At present, sustainable development theory has formed its rudiment with many scholars’tireless researching and with many kinds of theories’nourishing, and the concept of sustainable development has been accepted at large.
The purpose of discoursing upon sustainable development was to build a clear outline for further research. In analysis of microeconomic, a couple of unsustainable hypotheses existing in mainstream economic theories were pointed out definitely. Externalities decrease efficiency of resource allocation and damage net society welfare. They are the roots of unsustainable development. Essential measure of eliminating Externalities is to internalize external cost. Efficient property right allocation and government intervention are important means either. Preference for positive utility can regulate unjust resource allocation between different generations. Analysis of macroeconomic demonstrates that sustainable development is nonlinear. It is unpractical to set foot on development road at one time all over the world. Though there exists different preference for sustainability and development, it is an affirming trend to go to unite. Expand centipede game and folk theorem can prove the trend further. IS-LM-EE curves were utilized to discuss equilibrium alteration of the three markets, so as to reflect the process of adjustment among monetary policy, fiscal policy and environmental policy in macroeconomic control.
A production function reflecting integrated capitals was built on the work of Romer’s endogenous growth theory, which is also one of highlights in the dissertation. Following the function, accurate mathematics deducing can explain complex relationships among each per variable change rate, saving rate, population growth rate, depreciation rate and elasticity of input capitals. Value ranges of per capital growth rate and per income change rate can be educed either. The model constructed in thepaper can forecast some economic details and get some conclusions fitting for theory and reality. It enriches sustainable development theory.
Green gross domestic product, genuine savings and ecological footprint were emphasized in the study of index system and evaluation methodology of sustainable development, which were theory elements to later empirical analysis. Furthermore, a single green national account model was brought forward under the frame of Weitzman and Hartwick. In the empirical research, economies of China, Inner Mongolia and Tianjin were quantitatively valued from 1991 to 2003, from which many results gained can be utilized for science decision-making. At the same time, a feasible accounting methodology was created.
对可持续发展论述的目的,就是要建立了一个清晰的可持续发展框架以便于深入研究。在微观经济分析部分,明确指出主流经济理论中若干非持续性假定;外部性的存在使得社会资源配置效率低下,社会净福利遭受损失,是经济发展不可持续的根源。消除外部性的根本措施是外部成本内在化,产权明晰和政府干预也是重要的手段;对正效用的偏好可以内在地调节代际资源配置不公。宏观经济分析论证了可持续发展的非线性,说明全球同时踏上可持续发展的道路是不现实的。尽管发达国家和发展中国家存在着不同的可持续和发展偏好,但走向联合是必然趋势,拓展的蜈蚣博弈、无名氏定理等对此也予以了证明。运用IS-LM-EE曲线探讨三市场的均衡变动时,明确地反映出货币政策、财政政策和环境政策在宏观经济调控中的相互协调过程。
在Romer内生增长理论上构建的反映资本全貌的生产函数是本文的亮点之一。各人均变量变化率、储蓄率、人口增长率、折旧率以及各资本投入弹性之间复杂密切的关系可以在严密的数学推导中反映出来,人均资本增长率和人均收入变化率的取值及变动范围也得到确定。本文构建的增长模型可预见凭直觉难以洞悉的细节,并得出一些与理论和事实相符的结论。该模型是对可持续发展理论的丰富。
在对可持续发展指标体系及评价方法论述时,研究显著侧重于GGDP、GS和EF部分,以此为后续的实证研究做充分铺垫。此外,在Weitzman和Hartwick的研究框架下提出了单一绿色国民核算模型。实证部分通过对1991～2003年中国、内蒙古和天津市的经济进行定量评估,得出了许多可供科学决策的依据,开辟了一条可行的核算思路。
Sustainable development is a comprehensive one involving economy, society, population, resource, environment, culture and many other fields. In the process of modern economic development, pressure of population, depletion of resource and pollution of environment resulted in the issue of sustainable development being put forward directly. At present, sustainable development theory has formed its rudiment with many scholars’tireless researching and with many kinds of theories’nourishing, and the concept of sustainable development has been accepted at large.
The purpose of discoursing upon sustainable development was to build a clear outline for further research. In analysis of microeconomic, a couple of unsustainable hypotheses existing in mainstream economic theories were pointed out definitely. Externalities decrease efficiency of resource allocation and damage net society welfare. They are the roots of unsustainable development. Essential measure of eliminating Externalities is to internalize external cost. Efficient property right allocation and government intervention are important means either. Preference for positive utility can regulate unjust resource allocation between different generations. Analysis of macroeconomic demonstrates that sustainable development is nonlinear. It is unpractical to set foot on development road at one time all over the world. Though there exists different preference for sustainability and development, it is an affirming trend to go to unite. Expand centipede game and folk theorem can prove the trend further. IS-LM-EE curves were utilized to discuss equilibrium alteration of the three markets, so as to reflect the process of adjustment among monetary policy, fiscal policy and environmental policy in macroeconomic control.
A production function reflecting integrated capitals was built on the work of Romer’s endogenous growth theory, which is also one of highlights in the dissertation. Following the function, accurate mathematics deducing can explain complex relationships among each per variable change rate, saving rate, population growth rate, depreciation rate and elasticity of input capitals. Value ranges of per capital growth rate and per income change rate can be educed either. The model constructed in thepaper can forecast some economic details and get some conclusions fitting for theory and reality. It enriches sustainable development theory.
Green gross domestic product, genuine savings and ecological footprint were emphasized in the study of index system and evaluation methodology of sustainable development, which were theory elements to later empirical analysis. Furthermore, a single green national account model was brought forward under the frame of Weitzman and Hartwick. In the empirical research, economies of China, Inner Mongolia and Tianjin were quantitatively valued from 1991 to 2003, from which many results gained can be utilized for science decision-making. At the same time, a feasible accounting methodology was created.
引文
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