基于自组织的绿洲及自然适宜性研究
|
摘要
随着绿洲人口继续增长及随后而来的生产规模的增大,绿洲开发过程加快、绿洲规模不断扩大。在干旱区绿洲有限的自然资源和脆弱的生态环境背景下绿洲规模的扩张有两种可能的结果:一是,当扩张保持在一定的限度之内时,它具有建设性作用,会巩固绿洲系统功能,为干旱区人类提供舒适的生存环境,足够的生产空间和更多的社会经济财富;二是,作为干旱区的脆弱系统,当绿洲扩张超过一定的限度,往往会起着破坏性作用,出现一些不可恢复的严重生态环境问题,使绿洲易失其稳定性,走向崩溃。因此,充分剖析绿洲体系及其内容,提高人类对绿洲及其发展规律的认识、科学实施绿洲的规划与开发、有效长期的组织绿洲,适当的选择绿洲系统发展模式、正确引导发展方向具有十分重要的战略意义。
本文以自组织为指导思想,从绿洲的系统性、整体性、复杂性特征出发树立了基于自组织的绿洲发展观,并在此基础上进一步对绿洲自然适宜性进行了评价,因此,内容上可分为两大部分:一是基于自组织的理论研究;二是基于RS/GIS空间分析的实例研究。
在理论研究中本文着力揭示绿洲系统的自组织发展规律,主要研究成果为:
(1)自组织理论在解释绿洲复杂系统的发生、发展、演化过程方面是一种非常强大而有效的理论依据;(2)绿洲系统的发展是由干旱环境背景下的特殊自然地理要素的自发演化所构成的自组织与由人为进行的规划与干预所构成的他组织的复合发展过程;(3)绿洲系统具有开放性、非平衡性、非线性、涨落等明显的自组织特征,有着从非组织到组织、从组织程度低到组织程度高、复杂度不断增长等自组织演化过程;(4)绿洲系统中自组织与他组织的相互影响机制决定着绿洲系统运行态势及其特征。
新疆绿洲发展的特征分析充分揭示并验证了绿洲系统的自组织与他组织特征与演化过程,充实了绿洲研究的理论体系及其内容,为提高我们对绿洲发展规律的认识、科学实施他组织、有效长期的组织绿洲,为正确引导绿洲系统发展过程与方向提供了科学的理论依据。
本文在理论研究成果基础上,基于特定研究区自然因素(自组织因素)及其空间特征信息,在RS/GIS技术支持下证明了理论成果的应用价值与操作方式,对研究区进行了绿洲自然适宜性评价,对研究结果进行了分级分类。结果表明:
在且末县境内属于各类适宜类型(包括高度适宜、中等适宜和勉强适宜)的土地总面积只有3118km2,占县土地总面积的2.234%,适宜绿洲的发展与开发、适宜人类进行生产和改造;将近97.8%的区域由于自然环境条件不允许,属于不适宜面积,不适宜开发与发展、不适宜人类的居住与生存。由此可知,绿洲的分布与发展在很大程度上受到各种自然因素的支配与控制,只有各种自然因素在时空上适当耦合、满足人类最基本生活条件时才能有人口分布与发展。
With the rapid population growth and expantion of manufacturing in the aridareas, the exploitation of oases have been enhancing through out the resent fifty yearsintensively and its scale have been increasing significantly. As a result, a series ofeco environment related problems are becoming more and more serious due to thelimited natural resourses and fragile eco environment in the arid areas. Therefore,close attentions must be paid to the posssible consequences of this changes as below:On one hand, if the expantion of oases controlled in reasonable scale, it has aconstructive function from which the whole oases system benefit and providesufficient ground for human activities; On the other hand, if the expantion of oasesexceeded a proper scale which largely depend on the limited natural resourses andfragile eco environment, it can be destructive to the oases system as a whole andinevitably lead to some serious eco environmental problems. Therefore, study theoases system in a well round way and enhance our awareness of its workingmechanism have significant role in the rational programming and organizing of oaseson a long term base and for promoting sustainable development.
In this paper we managed to introduce the self organization theory into oasesstudy by applying both theoretical and practical approaches. So both the context andstudy method of this paper can be devided into two main subsections, the former on istheoretical analysis of oases system based on theoretical approach asSelf organization; The latter one is practical study of related study area based on RS&GIS technology.
Theoretical research results of this study can be concluded as below:
Self organization is a process where the organization of a system spontaneouslyincreases without being controlled by the external system. As new kind of worldviewfor human to understand the universe and things, self organization can be a very reasonable explanation for the evolving process of complex systems. Constructed bynumbers of sub system and complex non linear correlation between them, oasessystem belongs to a typical self organizing system. This paper analyze thecharacteristics and evolving process of oases system by applying self organizationtheory through the case study from XinJiang oases system. The characteristics andworking mechanisms of both self organizing and other organizing process have beenintroduced to analyze the evolving process while putting the focus onself organization. Results indicate that oases system has the obvious features ofself organizing system such as being open, non balanced, non linear and fluctuation.Self organizing process in oases system spontaneously takes place by three steps,from non organization to organization, from low level of organization to high levelorganization and constant increasement of complexity. These three processesmanifested respectively in the spontaneous formation of oasis in a proper environment,proliferation and atrophy of oasis scale and evolution of oasis function and structure.Evolution of oases system is a compound and complex process which is constructedby the self organization based on natural factors and other organization implementedby human activities.
The operational status and characteristics of oases system at a certain time perioddepend on the relationship and interacting mechanism between the self organizationand other organization in this system. They have three types of possible influence.Firstly, the development of oases system can be increased to a great degree with theassistance of other organization measures during the process of self organization. Inthis case oases system will tend to reinforce itself, but close attentions must be paidinorder to avoid causing some negative feedbacks. Secondly, when self organizationand other organization deviated from each other, it will break down the intrinsic orderin oases system and oases system will develop to the direction of disorder anddestruction. Finally, the harmonious and synchronous development of self organization and other organization can make oases system play it`s best functionand keep the trend of healthy and sustainable development. Some typical examplesfrom the XinJiang oases have been given correspondingly to support the theoreticalanalysis. This study can provide scientific basis for understanding the oases systemfrom the point of view of self organization, implementing other organizing processscientifically and organizing oases system in a more effective way and on a long termbasis.
Practical research results of this study can be concluded as below:
It is well known that there are many natural factors (self organizing factors)which influnce the development of oases. Among them factors like terrain, climate,water and LUCC condition are very significant and dominant. In this paper we, firstly,set up a database at 1km×1km cellsize and projected coordinate system of WGS 1984UTM Zone 45N which include the data of terrain, climate and LUCC condition ofstudy area (Cherchen county) and conducted a deep research on the spatialdistribution patterns of each factor respectively; Secondly, we evaluated the naturalsuitability of oases by applying both single factor and multi factor comprehensiveevaluation models in which the weight of each single factor was determined via thecorrelation between the four factors and population distribution respectively; Finally,according to the culculated oasis natural sutibility index, we proposed reasonableevaluation criteria of oasis natural sutibility index and devided whole study area intofour different types as high suitable area, middle suitable area, critical suitable areaand non suitable area respectively. From the results we can see clearly that thedistribution and development of oases restricted by the natural factoces to a greatextent in the arid areas and the proper combinition of all kind of natural resourceswere essential to the human existence here.
本文以自组织为指导思想,从绿洲的系统性、整体性、复杂性特征出发树立了基于自组织的绿洲发展观,并在此基础上进一步对绿洲自然适宜性进行了评价,因此,内容上可分为两大部分:一是基于自组织的理论研究;二是基于RS/GIS空间分析的实例研究。
在理论研究中本文着力揭示绿洲系统的自组织发展规律,主要研究成果为:
(1)自组织理论在解释绿洲复杂系统的发生、发展、演化过程方面是一种非常强大而有效的理论依据;(2)绿洲系统的发展是由干旱环境背景下的特殊自然地理要素的自发演化所构成的自组织与由人为进行的规划与干预所构成的他组织的复合发展过程;(3)绿洲系统具有开放性、非平衡性、非线性、涨落等明显的自组织特征,有着从非组织到组织、从组织程度低到组织程度高、复杂度不断增长等自组织演化过程;(4)绿洲系统中自组织与他组织的相互影响机制决定着绿洲系统运行态势及其特征。
新疆绿洲发展的特征分析充分揭示并验证了绿洲系统的自组织与他组织特征与演化过程,充实了绿洲研究的理论体系及其内容,为提高我们对绿洲发展规律的认识、科学实施他组织、有效长期的组织绿洲,为正确引导绿洲系统发展过程与方向提供了科学的理论依据。
本文在理论研究成果基础上,基于特定研究区自然因素(自组织因素)及其空间特征信息,在RS/GIS技术支持下证明了理论成果的应用价值与操作方式,对研究区进行了绿洲自然适宜性评价,对研究结果进行了分级分类。结果表明:
在且末县境内属于各类适宜类型(包括高度适宜、中等适宜和勉强适宜)的土地总面积只有3118km2,占县土地总面积的2.234%,适宜绿洲的发展与开发、适宜人类进行生产和改造;将近97.8%的区域由于自然环境条件不允许,属于不适宜面积,不适宜开发与发展、不适宜人类的居住与生存。由此可知,绿洲的分布与发展在很大程度上受到各种自然因素的支配与控制,只有各种自然因素在时空上适当耦合、满足人类最基本生活条件时才能有人口分布与发展。
With the rapid population growth and expantion of manufacturing in the aridareas, the exploitation of oases have been enhancing through out the resent fifty yearsintensively and its scale have been increasing significantly. As a result, a series ofeco environment related problems are becoming more and more serious due to thelimited natural resourses and fragile eco environment in the arid areas. Therefore,close attentions must be paid to the posssible consequences of this changes as below:On one hand, if the expantion of oases controlled in reasonable scale, it has aconstructive function from which the whole oases system benefit and providesufficient ground for human activities; On the other hand, if the expantion of oasesexceeded a proper scale which largely depend on the limited natural resourses andfragile eco environment, it can be destructive to the oases system as a whole andinevitably lead to some serious eco environmental problems. Therefore, study theoases system in a well round way and enhance our awareness of its workingmechanism have significant role in the rational programming and organizing of oaseson a long term base and for promoting sustainable development.
In this paper we managed to introduce the self organization theory into oasesstudy by applying both theoretical and practical approaches. So both the context andstudy method of this paper can be devided into two main subsections, the former on istheoretical analysis of oases system based on theoretical approach asSelf organization; The latter one is practical study of related study area based on RS&GIS technology.
Theoretical research results of this study can be concluded as below:
Self organization is a process where the organization of a system spontaneouslyincreases without being controlled by the external system. As new kind of worldviewfor human to understand the universe and things, self organization can be a very reasonable explanation for the evolving process of complex systems. Constructed bynumbers of sub system and complex non linear correlation between them, oasessystem belongs to a typical self organizing system. This paper analyze thecharacteristics and evolving process of oases system by applying self organizationtheory through the case study from XinJiang oases system. The characteristics andworking mechanisms of both self organizing and other organizing process have beenintroduced to analyze the evolving process while putting the focus onself organization. Results indicate that oases system has the obvious features ofself organizing system such as being open, non balanced, non linear and fluctuation.Self organizing process in oases system spontaneously takes place by three steps,from non organization to organization, from low level of organization to high levelorganization and constant increasement of complexity. These three processesmanifested respectively in the spontaneous formation of oasis in a proper environment,proliferation and atrophy of oasis scale and evolution of oasis function and structure.Evolution of oases system is a compound and complex process which is constructedby the self organization based on natural factors and other organization implementedby human activities.
The operational status and characteristics of oases system at a certain time perioddepend on the relationship and interacting mechanism between the self organizationand other organization in this system. They have three types of possible influence.Firstly, the development of oases system can be increased to a great degree with theassistance of other organization measures during the process of self organization. Inthis case oases system will tend to reinforce itself, but close attentions must be paidinorder to avoid causing some negative feedbacks. Secondly, when self organizationand other organization deviated from each other, it will break down the intrinsic orderin oases system and oases system will develop to the direction of disorder anddestruction. Finally, the harmonious and synchronous development of self organization and other organization can make oases system play it`s best functionand keep the trend of healthy and sustainable development. Some typical examplesfrom the XinJiang oases have been given correspondingly to support the theoreticalanalysis. This study can provide scientific basis for understanding the oases systemfrom the point of view of self organization, implementing other organizing processscientifically and organizing oases system in a more effective way and on a long termbasis.
Practical research results of this study can be concluded as below:
It is well known that there are many natural factors (self organizing factors)which influnce the development of oases. Among them factors like terrain, climate,water and LUCC condition are very significant and dominant. In this paper we, firstly,set up a database at 1km×1km cellsize and projected coordinate system of WGS 1984UTM Zone 45N which include the data of terrain, climate and LUCC condition ofstudy area (Cherchen county) and conducted a deep research on the spatialdistribution patterns of each factor respectively; Secondly, we evaluated the naturalsuitability of oases by applying both single factor and multi factor comprehensiveevaluation models in which the weight of each single factor was determined via thecorrelation between the four factors and population distribution respectively; Finally,according to the culculated oasis natural sutibility index, we proposed reasonableevaluation criteria of oasis natural sutibility index and devided whole study area intofour different types as high suitable area, middle suitable area, critical suitable areaand non suitable area respectively. From the results we can see clearly that thedistribution and development of oases restricted by the natural factoces to a greatextent in the arid areas and the proper combinition of all kind of natural resourceswere essential to the human existence here.
引文
[1]瓦哈甫·哈力克,穆艾塔尔·赛地,杨玲.绿洲规模与绿洲经济发展关系定量研究[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2008,24(2):243-248.
[2]潘晓玲.关于中国西部干旱区生态环境演变与调控研究的思考[J].地球科学进展,2001,16(1):24-25.
[3]塔西甫拉堤·特依拜,熊黑钢,丁建丽等.塔里木盆地南部生态环境演变研究[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学出版社,2001,6-12.
[4]塔西甫拉堤·特依拜,熊黑刚,丁建丽等.干旱区环境演变遥感研究[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学出版社,2001,4-7.
[5]申元村,汪久文,伍光和.中国绿洲及其可持续发展建设[J].干旱区资源与环境,2002,16(1),156-160.
[6]依巴代提.对新疆绿洲演变情势的研究[J].新疆水利,2004,4(5):10-11.
[7]何春梅,钟玲.新疆农业水利发展存在的问题及对策[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2003,1(4):46-48.
[8]李义玲,乔木,吴世新,李和平,周生斌.基于3S技术的新疆绿洲耕地盐渍化现状调查及治理对策研[J].新疆农业科学,2008,45(4):642-649.
[9]鞠强,努尔巴衣·阿不都沙勒克,潘晓玲.新疆草地退化及其治理[J].新疆环境保护2004,26(3):43-46.
[10]潘玉君,陈路.地理环境整体性理论的逻辑基础[J].自然辩证法研究,2005,21(9):5-9.
[11]刘普幸,陈仲全,常红等.绿洲系统的结构优化及数据库[J].干旱区资源与环,1995,9(4):236-242.
[12]申元村.中国绿洲[M].开封:河南大学出版社,2000,4-5.
[13]黄盛璋.绿洲研究[M].北京:科学出版社.2003,16-30.
[14]张超.新疆绿洲时空变化及稳定性研究[D].博士论文,乌鲁木齐:新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,2006.
[15]杨发相,穆桂金,岳健,付强.干旱区绿洲的成因类型及演变[J].干旱区地理,2006,29(1):70-75.
[16]钱云.新疆绿洲[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社,1999,9-10.
[17]塔西甫拉堤·特依拜.绿洲遥感[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社,2009,2-4.
[18]汤国安.ArcGIS地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2006,1-5.
[19]吴文斌.基于遥感和GIS的土地适宜性评价研究—以突尼斯扎格万省为例[D].北京:中国农业科学院,农业资源与农业区划研究所,2005.
[20]资源环境科学数据中心.http://www.geodata.cn,2007.
[21]Francis HEYLIGHEN. Self organization, Emergence and The Architecture of Complexity[J].Transdisciplinary Research Group, Free University of Brussels, Pleinlaan,2002.
[22] A. Medvid, A.Mychko, P.Onufrievs. Self organization of a 2D Lattice on a Surface of Gesingle Crystal After Irradiation with Nd: YAG laser[J]. Microelectronics Journal,2008,39:237–240.
[23] Laurent Gaubert, Pascal Redou, Fabrice Harrouet, Jacques Tisseau. A first mathematicalmodel of brood sorting by ants:Functional self organization without swarm intelligence[J].Ecological complexity, 2007(4):234–241.
[24] Dipankar Ghosh , Lori Olsen. Environmental uncertainty and managers’use of discretionaryaccruals[J]. Accounting, Organizations and Society, 2009,3 (4) :188–205.
[25]张勇强.城市空间发展自组织研究—深圳为例[D].博士论文,南京:东南大学建筑系,2003.
[26]潘玉君,陈路.地理环境整体性理论的逻辑基础[J].自然辩证法研究,2005,21(9):5-9.
[27]朱晓华,蔡运龙等.自组织的土地利用系统[J].中国土地科学,2005,19(2):21-28.
[28]张金屯,杨洪晓.自组织特征人工神经网络在庞泉沟自然保护区植物群落分类中的应用[J].生态学报,2007,3:1005-1010.
[29] Cristina Costa Santini, Andy M.Tyrrell. The manipulation of calcium oscillations byharnessing self organisation[J]. BioSystems, 2008, 94: 153–163.
[30] T.D. Frank , A. Daffertshofer , C.E. Peper , P.J. Beeka H. Haken. H theorem for a mean fieldmodel describing coupled oscillator systems under external forces[J]. Physica D,2001,150 :219–236.
[31]吴彤.自组织方法论研究[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2001,10-11.
[32]张春合,吴金元,彭庆文等.从他组织到自组织—论我国竞技体育体制改革的实施路径[J].武汉体育学院学报,2008,42(9):20-23.
[33]毛明.城市道路交通系统自组织现象研究[D].硕士论文,成都:西南交通大学,2006.
[34]热合木都拉·阿迪拉.再论“绿洲”[J].干旱区地理,2009,26(4):468-470.
[35]马建华,管华.系统科学及其在地理学中的应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2003,20-50.
[36]黄佛君,张永明,金海龙.绿洲的形成,发展与转型分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(9):5-9.
[37]姜逢清,杨德刚,穆桂金,胡汝骥.绿洲规模扩张的资源环境与生态阈限[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2002(12)5:102-104.
[38]王亚俊,米尼热.中国绿洲研究回顾[J].干旱区资源与环境,2000,14(3):92-96.
[39]郭云峰,郑垂勇.金融资源系统自组织特征研究[J].济南大学学报(社会科学版),2008,18(4):71-73.
[40]张军民,王立新.新疆绿洲开发与区域协调发展对策的研究[J].石河子大学学报(自然科学版),2004,22(4):320-324.
[41]师汉民.从“他组织”走向自组织—关于制造哲理的沉思[J].中国机械工程,2000,11:80-85.
[42]沈小峰,吴彤,曾国屏.论系统的自组织演化[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),1993,3:79-88.
[43] Per.Bak, Chao Tang, Kurt Wiesenfeld. Self organized criticality: an explanation of 1/fnoise [J]. Physical Review Letters. 1987. 59 (4):381 384.
[44]黄达远,栗民.近代新疆铁路规划述论[J].西南交通大学学报(社会科学版),2005,6(6):56-60.
[45]新疆维吾尔自治区统计局.1955-2005新疆50年[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2006.
[46]钱云,刘秀娟.新疆绿洲的形成、演变和发展[J].新疆社会经济,1996,1:26-31.
[47]刘海隆,包安明,陈曦,张小雷,张进英.新疆交通可达性对区域经济的影响分析[J].地理学报,2008,63(4):428-436.
[48]冯文华,张俊芳.社会文化心态演变中的涨落突变规律[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2003,6:19-23.
[49]陈亚宁,李卫红,张元明,崔旺诚.新疆塔里木河水资源开发利用与生态保育对策[J].资源科学,2004(26):74-79.
[50]陈亚宁,张小雷,祝向民等.新疆塔里木河下游断流河道输水的生态效应分析[J].中国科学D辑地球科学,2004,34(5):475-482.
[51]阿里木·吐尔逊,木塔力甫·依明尼亚孜.断流河道间断输水两岸地下水的运动模型及其解法-以塔里木河下游断流河段生态输水为例[J].石河子大学学报(自然科学版),2003,7(2):131-135.
[52]陈永金,陈亚宁,李卫红,刘加珍.生态输水影响下地下水化学特征的时空变化分析[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(5):734-741.
[53]樊自立,艾里西尔,王亚俊,陈亚宁.新疆人工灌溉绿洲的形成和发展演变[J].干旱区研究,2006,23(3):410-418.
[54]樊自立.塔里木盆地绿洲形成与演变[J].地理学报,1993,48(5):421-427.
[55]钱云.历史时期新疆绿洲的演变和发展[J].干旱区资源与环境,1997,11(2):37-47.
[56]白金凤,任玉冰.基于RS/GIS的新疆绿洲动态变化研究[J].干旱环境监测,2006,20(4):199-201.
[57]张杰,潘晓玲.焉耆盆地库鲁克绿洲演变时空格局动态分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(8):1369-1377.
[58]程维明,周成虎,刘海江,张蒋艳,张驰,姚永慧.玛纳斯河流域50年绿洲扩张及生态环境演变研究[J].中国科学D辑地球科学,2005,35(11):1074-1086.
[59]周跃志,潘晓玲,何伦志.绿洲稳定性研究的几个基本理论问题[J].西北大学学报(自然科学版),2004,34(3):359-363.
[60]高前兆,王润,王顺德.新疆平原绿洲环境变化与生态维护[J].干旱区研究,2008,25(3):311-318.
[61]穆桂金,刘嘉麒.绿洲演变及其调控因素初析[J].第四纪研究,2000,20(6):539-546.
[62]杨发相,马虹,穆桂金,乔木.新疆玛纳斯河地区绿洲的形成与演变研究[J].干旱区研究,2003,12(20):276-280.
[63]周艳时,杨德刚,徐美卿.新疆经济类型的划分及综合经济区划[J].干旱区资源与环境,2005,19(2):34-39.
[64]李边疆,王万茂.区域土地利用与生态环境耦合关系的系统分析[J].干旱区地理,2008,31(1):142-148.
[65]瓦哈甫·哈力克,海米提·依米提,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,熊黑钢.绿洲耕地变化趋势及其驱动力—塔里木盆地南部策勒绿洲为例[J].地理学报,2004,59(4):608-614.
[66]王让会,孙洪波,黄俊芳等.人为活动影响下的生态系统反馈机制—塔里木河流域生态输水工程的效应[J].农村生态环境,2004,20(4):73-76.
[67]吴亚妮.车尔臣河中下游流域生态敏感性评价及其空间分布研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学,2007.
[68]张小波.GIS支持下的土地利用适宜性评价—以库车县为例[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学,2007.
[69]黄杏元.地理信息系统概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1996,153-157.
[70]杨宇.多指标综合评价中赋权方法评析[J].统计与决策,2006,(13):17-19.
[71]郝慧梅,任志远.基于栅格数据的陕西省人居环境自然适宜性测评[J].地理学报,2009,64(4):498-506.
[72] Feng Zhiming, YANG Yanzhao, ZHANG Dan, TANG Yan. Natural environment suitabilityfor human settlements in China based on GIS [J]. ACTA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA,2009,19:437 446.
[73]吴秀芹,张洪岩.ArcGIS9地理信息系统应用与实践[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2008,109-125.
[74]刘学军,龚健雅.基于DEM坡度坡向算法精度的分析研究[J].测绘学报,2004,33(3):258-263.
[75]陈效逑,王恒.1982-2003年内蒙古植被带和植被覆盖度的时空变化[J].地理学报,2009,64(1):84-94.
[76]高蓓,张树誉等.陕北地区1997-2006年NDVI变化与气候因子的关系[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2009,24(4):387-392.
[77] Sellers P J, B W Meeson, F G Hal1. Remote sensing of the land surface for studies of globalchange [J]. Remote Sensing of Environment, 1995,51:3 36.
[78]王汶,鲁旭.基于GIS的人居环境气候舒适度评价—河南省为例[J].GIS技术,2009,2:104-109.
[79] Emmanuel R. Thermal comfort implications of urbanization in a warm humid city: TheColombo Metropolitan Region(CMR), SriLanka[J]. Building and Environment,2005,40(12):1591 1601.
[80]封志明,唐焰等.基于GSI的中国人居环境指数模型的建立与应用[J].地理学报,2008,63(12):1327-1336.
[81]唐焰,封志明.基于栅格尺度的中国人居环境气候适宜性评价[J].资源科学,2008,30(5):648-653.
[2]潘晓玲.关于中国西部干旱区生态环境演变与调控研究的思考[J].地球科学进展,2001,16(1):24-25.
[3]塔西甫拉堤·特依拜,熊黑钢,丁建丽等.塔里木盆地南部生态环境演变研究[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学出版社,2001,6-12.
[4]塔西甫拉堤·特依拜,熊黑刚,丁建丽等.干旱区环境演变遥感研究[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学出版社,2001,4-7.
[5]申元村,汪久文,伍光和.中国绿洲及其可持续发展建设[J].干旱区资源与环境,2002,16(1),156-160.
[6]依巴代提.对新疆绿洲演变情势的研究[J].新疆水利,2004,4(5):10-11.
[7]何春梅,钟玲.新疆农业水利发展存在的问题及对策[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2003,1(4):46-48.
[8]李义玲,乔木,吴世新,李和平,周生斌.基于3S技术的新疆绿洲耕地盐渍化现状调查及治理对策研[J].新疆农业科学,2008,45(4):642-649.
[9]鞠强,努尔巴衣·阿不都沙勒克,潘晓玲.新疆草地退化及其治理[J].新疆环境保护2004,26(3):43-46.
[10]潘玉君,陈路.地理环境整体性理论的逻辑基础[J].自然辩证法研究,2005,21(9):5-9.
[11]刘普幸,陈仲全,常红等.绿洲系统的结构优化及数据库[J].干旱区资源与环,1995,9(4):236-242.
[12]申元村.中国绿洲[M].开封:河南大学出版社,2000,4-5.
[13]黄盛璋.绿洲研究[M].北京:科学出版社.2003,16-30.
[14]张超.新疆绿洲时空变化及稳定性研究[D].博士论文,乌鲁木齐:新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,2006.
[15]杨发相,穆桂金,岳健,付强.干旱区绿洲的成因类型及演变[J].干旱区地理,2006,29(1):70-75.
[16]钱云.新疆绿洲[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社,1999,9-10.
[17]塔西甫拉堤·特依拜.绿洲遥感[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社,2009,2-4.
[18]汤国安.ArcGIS地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2006,1-5.
[19]吴文斌.基于遥感和GIS的土地适宜性评价研究—以突尼斯扎格万省为例[D].北京:中国农业科学院,农业资源与农业区划研究所,2005.
[20]资源环境科学数据中心.http://www.geodata.cn,2007.
[21]Francis HEYLIGHEN. Self organization, Emergence and The Architecture of Complexity[J].Transdisciplinary Research Group, Free University of Brussels, Pleinlaan,2002.
[22] A. Medvid, A.Mychko, P.Onufrievs. Self organization of a 2D Lattice on a Surface of Gesingle Crystal After Irradiation with Nd: YAG laser[J]. Microelectronics Journal,2008,39:237–240.
[23] Laurent Gaubert, Pascal Redou, Fabrice Harrouet, Jacques Tisseau. A first mathematicalmodel of brood sorting by ants:Functional self organization without swarm intelligence[J].Ecological complexity, 2007(4):234–241.
[24] Dipankar Ghosh , Lori Olsen. Environmental uncertainty and managers’use of discretionaryaccruals[J]. Accounting, Organizations and Society, 2009,3 (4) :188–205.
[25]张勇强.城市空间发展自组织研究—深圳为例[D].博士论文,南京:东南大学建筑系,2003.
[26]潘玉君,陈路.地理环境整体性理论的逻辑基础[J].自然辩证法研究,2005,21(9):5-9.
[27]朱晓华,蔡运龙等.自组织的土地利用系统[J].中国土地科学,2005,19(2):21-28.
[28]张金屯,杨洪晓.自组织特征人工神经网络在庞泉沟自然保护区植物群落分类中的应用[J].生态学报,2007,3:1005-1010.
[29] Cristina Costa Santini, Andy M.Tyrrell. The manipulation of calcium oscillations byharnessing self organisation[J]. BioSystems, 2008, 94: 153–163.
[30] T.D. Frank , A. Daffertshofer , C.E. Peper , P.J. Beeka H. Haken. H theorem for a mean fieldmodel describing coupled oscillator systems under external forces[J]. Physica D,2001,150 :219–236.
[31]吴彤.自组织方法论研究[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2001,10-11.
[32]张春合,吴金元,彭庆文等.从他组织到自组织—论我国竞技体育体制改革的实施路径[J].武汉体育学院学报,2008,42(9):20-23.
[33]毛明.城市道路交通系统自组织现象研究[D].硕士论文,成都:西南交通大学,2006.
[34]热合木都拉·阿迪拉.再论“绿洲”[J].干旱区地理,2009,26(4):468-470.
[35]马建华,管华.系统科学及其在地理学中的应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2003,20-50.
[36]黄佛君,张永明,金海龙.绿洲的形成,发展与转型分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(9):5-9.
[37]姜逢清,杨德刚,穆桂金,胡汝骥.绿洲规模扩张的资源环境与生态阈限[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2002(12)5:102-104.
[38]王亚俊,米尼热.中国绿洲研究回顾[J].干旱区资源与环境,2000,14(3):92-96.
[39]郭云峰,郑垂勇.金融资源系统自组织特征研究[J].济南大学学报(社会科学版),2008,18(4):71-73.
[40]张军民,王立新.新疆绿洲开发与区域协调发展对策的研究[J].石河子大学学报(自然科学版),2004,22(4):320-324.
[41]师汉民.从“他组织”走向自组织—关于制造哲理的沉思[J].中国机械工程,2000,11:80-85.
[42]沈小峰,吴彤,曾国屏.论系统的自组织演化[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),1993,3:79-88.
[43] Per.Bak, Chao Tang, Kurt Wiesenfeld. Self organized criticality: an explanation of 1/fnoise [J]. Physical Review Letters. 1987. 59 (4):381 384.
[44]黄达远,栗民.近代新疆铁路规划述论[J].西南交通大学学报(社会科学版),2005,6(6):56-60.
[45]新疆维吾尔自治区统计局.1955-2005新疆50年[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2006.
[46]钱云,刘秀娟.新疆绿洲的形成、演变和发展[J].新疆社会经济,1996,1:26-31.
[47]刘海隆,包安明,陈曦,张小雷,张进英.新疆交通可达性对区域经济的影响分析[J].地理学报,2008,63(4):428-436.
[48]冯文华,张俊芳.社会文化心态演变中的涨落突变规律[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2003,6:19-23.
[49]陈亚宁,李卫红,张元明,崔旺诚.新疆塔里木河水资源开发利用与生态保育对策[J].资源科学,2004(26):74-79.
[50]陈亚宁,张小雷,祝向民等.新疆塔里木河下游断流河道输水的生态效应分析[J].中国科学D辑地球科学,2004,34(5):475-482.
[51]阿里木·吐尔逊,木塔力甫·依明尼亚孜.断流河道间断输水两岸地下水的运动模型及其解法-以塔里木河下游断流河段生态输水为例[J].石河子大学学报(自然科学版),2003,7(2):131-135.
[52]陈永金,陈亚宁,李卫红,刘加珍.生态输水影响下地下水化学特征的时空变化分析[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(5):734-741.
[53]樊自立,艾里西尔,王亚俊,陈亚宁.新疆人工灌溉绿洲的形成和发展演变[J].干旱区研究,2006,23(3):410-418.
[54]樊自立.塔里木盆地绿洲形成与演变[J].地理学报,1993,48(5):421-427.
[55]钱云.历史时期新疆绿洲的演变和发展[J].干旱区资源与环境,1997,11(2):37-47.
[56]白金凤,任玉冰.基于RS/GIS的新疆绿洲动态变化研究[J].干旱环境监测,2006,20(4):199-201.
[57]张杰,潘晓玲.焉耆盆地库鲁克绿洲演变时空格局动态分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(8):1369-1377.
[58]程维明,周成虎,刘海江,张蒋艳,张驰,姚永慧.玛纳斯河流域50年绿洲扩张及生态环境演变研究[J].中国科学D辑地球科学,2005,35(11):1074-1086.
[59]周跃志,潘晓玲,何伦志.绿洲稳定性研究的几个基本理论问题[J].西北大学学报(自然科学版),2004,34(3):359-363.
[60]高前兆,王润,王顺德.新疆平原绿洲环境变化与生态维护[J].干旱区研究,2008,25(3):311-318.
[61]穆桂金,刘嘉麒.绿洲演变及其调控因素初析[J].第四纪研究,2000,20(6):539-546.
[62]杨发相,马虹,穆桂金,乔木.新疆玛纳斯河地区绿洲的形成与演变研究[J].干旱区研究,2003,12(20):276-280.
[63]周艳时,杨德刚,徐美卿.新疆经济类型的划分及综合经济区划[J].干旱区资源与环境,2005,19(2):34-39.
[64]李边疆,王万茂.区域土地利用与生态环境耦合关系的系统分析[J].干旱区地理,2008,31(1):142-148.
[65]瓦哈甫·哈力克,海米提·依米提,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,熊黑钢.绿洲耕地变化趋势及其驱动力—塔里木盆地南部策勒绿洲为例[J].地理学报,2004,59(4):608-614.
[66]王让会,孙洪波,黄俊芳等.人为活动影响下的生态系统反馈机制—塔里木河流域生态输水工程的效应[J].农村生态环境,2004,20(4):73-76.
[67]吴亚妮.车尔臣河中下游流域生态敏感性评价及其空间分布研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学,2007.
[68]张小波.GIS支持下的土地利用适宜性评价—以库车县为例[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学,2007.
[69]黄杏元.地理信息系统概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1996,153-157.
[70]杨宇.多指标综合评价中赋权方法评析[J].统计与决策,2006,(13):17-19.
[71]郝慧梅,任志远.基于栅格数据的陕西省人居环境自然适宜性测评[J].地理学报,2009,64(4):498-506.
[72] Feng Zhiming, YANG Yanzhao, ZHANG Dan, TANG Yan. Natural environment suitabilityfor human settlements in China based on GIS [J]. ACTA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA,2009,19:437 446.
[73]吴秀芹,张洪岩.ArcGIS9地理信息系统应用与实践[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2008,109-125.
[74]刘学军,龚健雅.基于DEM坡度坡向算法精度的分析研究[J].测绘学报,2004,33(3):258-263.
[75]陈效逑,王恒.1982-2003年内蒙古植被带和植被覆盖度的时空变化[J].地理学报,2009,64(1):84-94.
[76]高蓓,张树誉等.陕北地区1997-2006年NDVI变化与气候因子的关系[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2009,24(4):387-392.
[77] Sellers P J, B W Meeson, F G Hal1. Remote sensing of the land surface for studies of globalchange [J]. Remote Sensing of Environment, 1995,51:3 36.
[78]王汶,鲁旭.基于GIS的人居环境气候舒适度评价—河南省为例[J].GIS技术,2009,2:104-109.
[79] Emmanuel R. Thermal comfort implications of urbanization in a warm humid city: TheColombo Metropolitan Region(CMR), SriLanka[J]. Building and Environment,2005,40(12):1591 1601.
[80]封志明,唐焰等.基于GSI的中国人居环境指数模型的建立与应用[J].地理学报,2008,63(12):1327-1336.
[81]唐焰,封志明.基于栅格尺度的中国人居环境气候适宜性评价[J].资源科学,2008,30(5):648-653.