中国西北地区虚拟水战略影响评价
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摘要
经济全球化进程日益加快,并且正向纵深层次发展,这引起了国家和地区间贸易往来的重大变化——资源配置的全球化。区域水资源管理也应努力发挥地区的比较优势,以通过贸易向市场要效益的方式间接养水,使水资源管理事业走上良性循环的轨道。虚拟水战略,其实就是虚拟水贸易战略,是水资源管理和国际贸易交叉研究中的新概念。目前,由于没有较成熟的评估贸易政策的环境与社会经济影响的方法,因此,对实施虚拟水战略前后的虚拟水贸易状况和虚拟水战略的环境与社会经济影响的研究还比较少。本文的研究意义就是提出一种可以利用现有数据较为科学的测算出虚拟水贸易情况的方法,并且能够在此基础上定量评价虚拟水战略的影响,并将其用于虚拟水战略各种情景的分析中。这样必将增强虚拟水战略的说服力,为虚拟水战略在中国西北地区的实施提供理论依据。
本文以中国西北五省为研究区,在确定中国西北地区与与之进行虚拟水贸易的其他地区之间的空间关系及贸易量的基础上,采用多准则决策理论中的多属性效用理论分别对全国各区域虚拟水利用的环境与社会经济影响进行评价,基于此对西北地区当前与假设的不同的虚拟水贸易模式的环境与社会经济影响进行情景分析,为最终虚拟水战略的实施提供理论依据。
本文研究结果表明:(1)在全国范围内,西北地区向全国其他七大地区的虚拟水净输出量为192.0877×10~8m~3,具体来说,主要向东部沿海和中部地区大量输出虚拟水,而从北部沿海、东北、西南、南部沿海和京津地区输入虚拟水;(2)全国八地区单位虚拟水使用量的环境效用从大到小的排序是:南部沿海地区、西南地区、东部沿海地区、中部地区、东北地区、京津地区、北部沿海地区、西北地区;全国八地区单位虚拟水使用量的社会经济效用从大到小的排序是:京津地区、东部沿海地区、北部沿海地区、南部沿海地区、东北地区、中部地区、西北地区、西南地区;(3)西北地区实施虚拟水战略,假设虚拟水进口量增加25%时,环境与社会经济综合效用将显著提高。
Liberalization has caused an increase not only in international trade of goods and services but also national trade. As the environmental and social consequences of trade are complex, they are rarely included in the national policies. In this paper we develop a method for evaluating the impacts of the virtual water strategic in northwest China.The first methodological step of our research illustrates the spatial relationship of Northwest China with regions all over the country through the import and export of virtual water. The second step links this spatial dimension with a qualitative assessment of the environmental and socio-economic impacts of the implementation of the virtual water strategy in Northwest China. The developed method is used to estimate the overall environmental and socio-economic impacts of an increase in virtual water imports to Northwest. Still, further research is required for fine-tuning of the utility functions, including a weighting procedure in the aggregation procedure.
The result shows that the net volume of virtual water from Northwest to other regions is 192. 0877×10~8m~3. Specifically, there is a large volume of virtual water exports from Northwest to Eastern Coastal region and Central region and virtual water imports from Northern Coast, Northeast, Southwest, Southern Coastal and Jingjin regions. The smallest of the sort of the environmental effectiveness of unit use of virtual water is Southern Coastal, Southwest, Eastern Coastal, Central, Northeast, Jingjin, Northern Coast, Northweat regions. The smallest of the sort of the Socio-economic effectiveness of unit use of virtual water is Jingjin, Eastern Coastal, Northern Coast, Southern Coastal, Northeast, Central, Northeast, Southwest regions. If the virtual water imports increased by 25%, environmental and socio-economical effectiveness will be improved significantly.
本文以中国西北五省为研究区,在确定中国西北地区与与之进行虚拟水贸易的其他地区之间的空间关系及贸易量的基础上,采用多准则决策理论中的多属性效用理论分别对全国各区域虚拟水利用的环境与社会经济影响进行评价,基于此对西北地区当前与假设的不同的虚拟水贸易模式的环境与社会经济影响进行情景分析,为最终虚拟水战略的实施提供理论依据。
本文研究结果表明:(1)在全国范围内,西北地区向全国其他七大地区的虚拟水净输出量为192.0877×10~8m~3,具体来说,主要向东部沿海和中部地区大量输出虚拟水,而从北部沿海、东北、西南、南部沿海和京津地区输入虚拟水;(2)全国八地区单位虚拟水使用量的环境效用从大到小的排序是:南部沿海地区、西南地区、东部沿海地区、中部地区、东北地区、京津地区、北部沿海地区、西北地区;全国八地区单位虚拟水使用量的社会经济效用从大到小的排序是:京津地区、东部沿海地区、北部沿海地区、南部沿海地区、东北地区、中部地区、西北地区、西南地区;(3)西北地区实施虚拟水战略,假设虚拟水进口量增加25%时,环境与社会经济综合效用将显著提高。
Liberalization has caused an increase not only in international trade of goods and services but also national trade. As the environmental and social consequences of trade are complex, they are rarely included in the national policies. In this paper we develop a method for evaluating the impacts of the virtual water strategic in northwest China.The first methodological step of our research illustrates the spatial relationship of Northwest China with regions all over the country through the import and export of virtual water. The second step links this spatial dimension with a qualitative assessment of the environmental and socio-economic impacts of the implementation of the virtual water strategy in Northwest China. The developed method is used to estimate the overall environmental and socio-economic impacts of an increase in virtual water imports to Northwest. Still, further research is required for fine-tuning of the utility functions, including a weighting procedure in the aggregation procedure.
The result shows that the net volume of virtual water from Northwest to other regions is 192. 0877×10~8m~3. Specifically, there is a large volume of virtual water exports from Northwest to Eastern Coastal region and Central region and virtual water imports from Northern Coast, Northeast, Southwest, Southern Coastal and Jingjin regions. The smallest of the sort of the environmental effectiveness of unit use of virtual water is Southern Coastal, Southwest, Eastern Coastal, Central, Northeast, Jingjin, Northern Coast, Northweat regions. The smallest of the sort of the Socio-economic effectiveness of unit use of virtual water is Jingjin, Eastern Coastal, Northern Coast, Southern Coastal, Northeast, Central, Northeast, Southwest regions. If the virtual water imports increased by 25%, environmental and socio-economical effectiveness will be improved significantly.
引文
[1]程国栋.虚拟水——中国水资源安全战略的新思路[C].中国科学院院刊,2003(4):260-265.
[2]徐中民,龙爱华,张志强.虚拟水的理论方法及在甘肃省的应用[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):861-869.
[3]龙爱华,徐中民,张志强.虚拟水理论方法与西北4省(区)虚拟水实证研究[J].地球科学进展,2004(19):577-584.
[4]周姣,史安娜.区域虚拟水贸易计算方法及实证[J].中国人口、资源与环境.2008(4):184-188.
[5]马忠,张继良.张掖市虚拟水投入产出分析[J].统计研究.2008(5):65-70.
[6]董承章.投入产出分析(M).北京:中国财政经济出版社,2000.438.
[7]徐玖平,吴巍.多属性决策的理论与方法[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006.
[8]邱菀华.群组决策特征根法[J].应用数学和力学.1997(11):1027-1031.
[9]徐中民.可持续发展的衡量与水资源的承载力[D].兰州:中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,2000.
[10]刘幸菡,吴国蔚.循环经济下我国农产品虚拟水贸易分析[J].政策研究,2005,2:15-20
[11]马惠兰.区域农产品比较优势理论分析[J].农业现代化研究,2004,25(4):246-250.
[12]薛敬孝,佟家栋,李坤望.国际经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000:35-36.
[13]戴维·罗默.高级宏观经济学[M].北京:商务印书馆,2004
[14]梁琦,张二震.比较利益理论再探讨[J].经济学季刊,2002,2(1):239-250.
[15]孙克,徐中民.环境影响评价中人文因素作用的空间计量.生态学报,2009(03):1563-1570.
[16]孙克.比较优势理论在虚拟水贸易中的应用——以中美农作物产品贸易为例.开发研究,2007,(06):53-56.
[17]Allan J A.Fortunately there are substitutes for water otherwise our hydro-political futures would be impossible[A].In:ODA,Priorities for Water Resources Allocation and Management.London[C],ODA,1993:13-26.
[18]Allan J A.Overall perspectives on countries and regions[A].In:Rogers P,Lydon P(eds.),Water in the Arab World:Perspectives and Prognoses[C].Massachusetts.Harvard University Press,1994:65-100.
[19]Allan J A.Virtual water:a long term solution for water short Middle Eastern economies?Paper presented at the 1997 British Association Festival of Science[R].University of Leeds Press,1997.
[20]Hoekstra A Y.Virtual water trade:an introduction[A].In:Hoekstra A Y(ed.),Virtual water trade.Value of Water Research Report Series(No.12)[C].IHE Delft,2003:13-23.
[21]Chapagain A K,A Y Hoekstra.Virtual water trade:a quantification of virtual water flows between nations in relation to international trade of livestock products.In:Hoekstra A Y(ed.),Virtual Water Trade:Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade(No.12).IHE Delft,2003.49-76.
[22]Zimmer D,Renault D.Virtual water in food production and global trade:review of methodological issues and preliminary results.In:Hoekstra A Y(ed.),Virtual Water Trade(No.12).IHE Delft,2003.93-107.
[23]Allen R G,Pereira L S,Raes D et al.Crop evapotranspiration:gudielines for computing crop water requirements.FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56.Rome:1998,(2):8.
[24]Laura Wurtenberger,Thomas Koellner,Claudia R.Binder.Virtual land use and agricultural trade:Estimating environmental and socio-economic impacts[J].Ecological Economics,2006(57):679-697.
[25]Renault D.Value of virtual water in food:principles and virtues[A].Hoekstra A Y(ed.),Virtual Water Trade:Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade[C].IHE Delft:2003:77-91.
[26]A.Y.Hoekstra,P.Q.Hung.Globalisation of water resources:international virtual water flows in relation to crop trade[J].Global Environmental Change,2005,15:45-56
[27]Allan,J.A.Virtual water-the water,food and trade nexus useful concept or misleading metaphor?[J],IWRA,Water International,2003,28(1):4-11.
[28]Turton A R.A strategic decision-makers guide to virtual water[EB/OL].http://www.up.ac.za/academic/liberts/polsci/awiru/op33.html.1998.
[29]Dornbusch R,Fisher S,Samuelson P.Comparative advantage,trade,and payments in Ricardian Model with a continuum of goods[J].American Economic Review,1977,67(5): 823-839.
[30]Aneoineffe Hildering.International law,Sustainable Development and Water Management [M].Eburon Publishers,2004.
[31]A.Y.Hoekstra,P.Q.Hung.Globalisation of water resources:international virtual water flows in relation to crop trade[J].Global Environmental Change,2005,15:45-56.
[32]Raul P.Lejano.Cost allocation of multiagency water resource projects:game theoretic approaches and case study[J].Water Resources Research,1995,31:1387-1393.
[33]H.P.Young.Cost allocation in water resources development[J].Water Resources Research,1982,18:463-475.
[2]徐中民,龙爱华,张志强.虚拟水的理论方法及在甘肃省的应用[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):861-869.
[3]龙爱华,徐中民,张志强.虚拟水理论方法与西北4省(区)虚拟水实证研究[J].地球科学进展,2004(19):577-584.
[4]周姣,史安娜.区域虚拟水贸易计算方法及实证[J].中国人口、资源与环境.2008(4):184-188.
[5]马忠,张继良.张掖市虚拟水投入产出分析[J].统计研究.2008(5):65-70.
[6]董承章.投入产出分析(M).北京:中国财政经济出版社,2000.438.
[7]徐玖平,吴巍.多属性决策的理论与方法[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006.
[8]邱菀华.群组决策特征根法[J].应用数学和力学.1997(11):1027-1031.
[9]徐中民.可持续发展的衡量与水资源的承载力[D].兰州:中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,2000.
[10]刘幸菡,吴国蔚.循环经济下我国农产品虚拟水贸易分析[J].政策研究,2005,2:15-20
[11]马惠兰.区域农产品比较优势理论分析[J].农业现代化研究,2004,25(4):246-250.
[12]薛敬孝,佟家栋,李坤望.国际经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000:35-36.
[13]戴维·罗默.高级宏观经济学[M].北京:商务印书馆,2004
[14]梁琦,张二震.比较利益理论再探讨[J].经济学季刊,2002,2(1):239-250.
[15]孙克,徐中民.环境影响评价中人文因素作用的空间计量.生态学报,2009(03):1563-1570.
[16]孙克.比较优势理论在虚拟水贸易中的应用——以中美农作物产品贸易为例.开发研究,2007,(06):53-56.
[17]Allan J A.Fortunately there are substitutes for water otherwise our hydro-political futures would be impossible[A].In:ODA,Priorities for Water Resources Allocation and Management.London[C],ODA,1993:13-26.
[18]Allan J A.Overall perspectives on countries and regions[A].In:Rogers P,Lydon P(eds.),Water in the Arab World:Perspectives and Prognoses[C].Massachusetts.Harvard University Press,1994:65-100.
[19]Allan J A.Virtual water:a long term solution for water short Middle Eastern economies?Paper presented at the 1997 British Association Festival of Science[R].University of Leeds Press,1997.
[20]Hoekstra A Y.Virtual water trade:an introduction[A].In:Hoekstra A Y(ed.),Virtual water trade.Value of Water Research Report Series(No.12)[C].IHE Delft,2003:13-23.
[21]Chapagain A K,A Y Hoekstra.Virtual water trade:a quantification of virtual water flows between nations in relation to international trade of livestock products.In:Hoekstra A Y(ed.),Virtual Water Trade:Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade(No.12).IHE Delft,2003.49-76.
[22]Zimmer D,Renault D.Virtual water in food production and global trade:review of methodological issues and preliminary results.In:Hoekstra A Y(ed.),Virtual Water Trade(No.12).IHE Delft,2003.93-107.
[23]Allen R G,Pereira L S,Raes D et al.Crop evapotranspiration:gudielines for computing crop water requirements.FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56.Rome:1998,(2):8.
[24]Laura Wurtenberger,Thomas Koellner,Claudia R.Binder.Virtual land use and agricultural trade:Estimating environmental and socio-economic impacts[J].Ecological Economics,2006(57):679-697.
[25]Renault D.Value of virtual water in food:principles and virtues[A].Hoekstra A Y(ed.),Virtual Water Trade:Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade[C].IHE Delft:2003:77-91.
[26]A.Y.Hoekstra,P.Q.Hung.Globalisation of water resources:international virtual water flows in relation to crop trade[J].Global Environmental Change,2005,15:45-56
[27]Allan,J.A.Virtual water-the water,food and trade nexus useful concept or misleading metaphor?[J],IWRA,Water International,2003,28(1):4-11.
[28]Turton A R.A strategic decision-makers guide to virtual water[EB/OL].http://www.up.ac.za/academic/liberts/polsci/awiru/op33.html.1998.
[29]Dornbusch R,Fisher S,Samuelson P.Comparative advantage,trade,and payments in Ricardian Model with a continuum of goods[J].American Economic Review,1977,67(5): 823-839.
[30]Aneoineffe Hildering.International law,Sustainable Development and Water Management [M].Eburon Publishers,2004.
[31]A.Y.Hoekstra,P.Q.Hung.Globalisation of water resources:international virtual water flows in relation to crop trade[J].Global Environmental Change,2005,15:45-56.
[32]Raul P.Lejano.Cost allocation of multiagency water resource projects:game theoretic approaches and case study[J].Water Resources Research,1995,31:1387-1393.
[33]H.P.Young.Cost allocation in water resources development[J].Water Resources Research,1982,18:463-475.