博弈论在区域经济合作中的运用研究
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摘要
传统的区域经济合作只注意到各区域之间存在的经济上的互补性和互利性可能推动它们之间经贸联系的深化,但却忽略利益协调对区域经济合作的重要作用。所以,有理由将博弈论引入区域经济合作中来。东北亚区域经济合作缓慢的原因在于不完善的合作机制和与之不相适应的合作模式。合作博弈论刚好为这两者提供了很好的理论模型。文章基于此,主要探讨了东北区域经济合作的协调机制和模式。
在第一部分,文章首先简要介绍了博弈论的基本概念,并完成区域经济合作博弈模型的构建。然后对现今区域经济合作理论进行了简要评述,尝试挖掘现有理论的缺失。最后,根据上述分析探讨了东北亚区域经济合作形成的内在机制。
第二部分对研究的客体(东北亚)进行了界定,同时探讨了东北亚区域经济合作的现状、特点和发展缓慢的原因,并指出了不完善的区域协调机制严重制约了东北亚区域经济合作的发展。
第三部分是文章的重点。博弈关注的是均衡,但是均衡受到策略的影响,而策略的选择因素之一是利益的分析。所以先对东北亚各国参与区域经济合作的利益进行简要分析是必要的,从而建立了东北亚区域经济合作的动力机制。东北亚的博弈所涵盖的模型很多,我们不可能全面谈及,所以文章选择了一个比较简单而且极具代表性的中日博弈模型进行论述。在探讨协调机制的作用原理基础上,文章尝试着论述东北亚区域经济合作协调机制的构建,并简要论述了所建立机制的可行性和有效性。最后,根据协调机制选择了与之相适应的合作模式。
最后一部分简要的分析东北亚区域经济合作的发展趋势,围绕提升我国参与东北亚区域经济合作的“讨价还价”能力,文章尝试着提出我国参与东北亚区域经济合作的战略选择。
The traditional regional economic cooperation notices that the complementarity and mutual benefit among different regions deepen their economic relations. However, the significance of benefit coordination to regional economic cooperation is ignored. This situation calls for the introduction of the Game Theory into regional economic cooperation. The slow economic development in the Northeast Asia lies in unsound cooperation mechanism and the lack of appropriate mode. The Game Theory provides a proper theoretical modal to these two aspects. On the basis of this point, this article addresses the cooperation mechanism and mode of the regional economic cooperation in the Northeast Asia.
Chapter 1 presents some basic concepts of the Game Theory and construes a Game Theory-oriented mode of regional economic cooperation. Then a brief review on the regional economic cooperation study and an attempt to examine the inadequacies of current theories are carried out. Finally, the internal mechanism with which the regional economic cooperation of the Northeast Asia takes shape is analyzed.
Chapter 2 delimitates the study object---the Northeast Asia, and surveys on the current situation, characteristics and causes of slow development of the regional economic cooperation in the Northeast Asia. The insufficient regional economic cooperation seriously restricts the development of the regional economic cooperation in the Northeast Asia.
Chapter 3 is the foci of this article. The Game Theory is concerned with balance, which is influenced by strategies partly based on profit analysis. Therefore, it is necessary to exert a brief profit analysis of each country which joins in the regional economic cooperation, so as to set up a motivation mechanism of the regional economic cooperation in the Northeast Asia. As the modals of the Game Theory are too many for us to cover them all, we focus on analyzing a relatively simple and representative Sino-Japanese modal. On the basis of the functioning principle of the cooperation mechanism, we delve into constructing a cooperation mechanism for the regional economic cooperation in the Northeast Asia, and explore its feasibility and possibility. At last, we choose a cooperation mode in conformity with the coordination mechanism.
The last part is a concise prediction of the development tendency of the regional economic cooperation in the Northeast Asia. In light of the bargain competence of our country, this article tentatively proposes some strategies in participating the regional economic cooperation in the Northeast Asia,
在第一部分,文章首先简要介绍了博弈论的基本概念,并完成区域经济合作博弈模型的构建。然后对现今区域经济合作理论进行了简要评述,尝试挖掘现有理论的缺失。最后,根据上述分析探讨了东北亚区域经济合作形成的内在机制。
第二部分对研究的客体(东北亚)进行了界定,同时探讨了东北亚区域经济合作的现状、特点和发展缓慢的原因,并指出了不完善的区域协调机制严重制约了东北亚区域经济合作的发展。
第三部分是文章的重点。博弈关注的是均衡,但是均衡受到策略的影响,而策略的选择因素之一是利益的分析。所以先对东北亚各国参与区域经济合作的利益进行简要分析是必要的,从而建立了东北亚区域经济合作的动力机制。东北亚的博弈所涵盖的模型很多,我们不可能全面谈及,所以文章选择了一个比较简单而且极具代表性的中日博弈模型进行论述。在探讨协调机制的作用原理基础上,文章尝试着论述东北亚区域经济合作协调机制的构建,并简要论述了所建立机制的可行性和有效性。最后,根据协调机制选择了与之相适应的合作模式。
最后一部分简要的分析东北亚区域经济合作的发展趋势,围绕提升我国参与东北亚区域经济合作的“讨价还价”能力,文章尝试着提出我国参与东北亚区域经济合作的战略选择。
The traditional regional economic cooperation notices that the complementarity and mutual benefit among different regions deepen their economic relations. However, the significance of benefit coordination to regional economic cooperation is ignored. This situation calls for the introduction of the Game Theory into regional economic cooperation. The slow economic development in the Northeast Asia lies in unsound cooperation mechanism and the lack of appropriate mode. The Game Theory provides a proper theoretical modal to these two aspects. On the basis of this point, this article addresses the cooperation mechanism and mode of the regional economic cooperation in the Northeast Asia.
Chapter 1 presents some basic concepts of the Game Theory and construes a Game Theory-oriented mode of regional economic cooperation. Then a brief review on the regional economic cooperation study and an attempt to examine the inadequacies of current theories are carried out. Finally, the internal mechanism with which the regional economic cooperation of the Northeast Asia takes shape is analyzed.
Chapter 2 delimitates the study object---the Northeast Asia, and surveys on the current situation, characteristics and causes of slow development of the regional economic cooperation in the Northeast Asia. The insufficient regional economic cooperation seriously restricts the development of the regional economic cooperation in the Northeast Asia.
Chapter 3 is the foci of this article. The Game Theory is concerned with balance, which is influenced by strategies partly based on profit analysis. Therefore, it is necessary to exert a brief profit analysis of each country which joins in the regional economic cooperation, so as to set up a motivation mechanism of the regional economic cooperation in the Northeast Asia. As the modals of the Game Theory are too many for us to cover them all, we focus on analyzing a relatively simple and representative Sino-Japanese modal. On the basis of the functioning principle of the cooperation mechanism, we delve into constructing a cooperation mechanism for the regional economic cooperation in the Northeast Asia, and explore its feasibility and possibility. At last, we choose a cooperation mode in conformity with the coordination mechanism.
The last part is a concise prediction of the development tendency of the regional economic cooperation in the Northeast Asia. In light of the bargain competence of our country, this article tentatively proposes some strategies in participating the regional economic cooperation in the Northeast Asia,
引文
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[2][美]Roger B.Myerson著,于寅,费剑平译.博弈论矛盾冲突分析[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2001.340-341
[3]孙大为,刘人境,汪应洛.区域经济合作的博弈论分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998(1)
[4]李虹.国际经济合作[J].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2002
[5]金元欢,王建宇.区域经济学[M].杭州:浙江大学出版社,2004.338
[6]石广生.积极参与区域经济合作开创我国对外经贸新格局[EB/OL]. http://www.people.com.cn/GB/paper464/6029/601779.html,2006年2月7日
[7]李罗力,郭万达,丁四保.中国的区域经济整合与发展[EB/OL].http://www.curb.com.cn/pageshow.asp?id_forum=006459,2006年2月7日
[8]陆建人.东北亚区域经济合作:历史回顾与进展[J].东北亚研究,2005(1)
[9]何剑.东北亚国际经济合作研究[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,l996.45
[10]金熙德.中国的东北亚研究[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2001.5
[11]滕月,王婷睿.东北亚区域经济合作的现状及对策思考[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版),2004(1)
[12]田杰亮.东北亚区域经济合作的历史回顾与进展趋向[J].当代世界,2003(11)
[13]张蕴涵.东北亚区域经济合作[M].北京:实际知识出版社,2004.51-52
[14]赵海成,亚太经济.对东北亚区域经济合作的动因、特点和模式的探讨[J] .1996(1)
[15]青木昌彦.比较制度分析[M].上海:上海远东出版社,2001.11
[16]罗肇鸿.关于东北亚经济合作的构想[J].东北亚论坛,2000(2)
[17]陈铆.寻求东北亚区域经济合作的新突破[J].南开学报(哲学社会科学版),2002(6)
[18]李彩霞.东北亚区域经济合作的困难和出路[J].现代国际关系,2000(10)
[19]龚可瑜.东北亚区域经济合作的难点和解决思路[J].太平洋学报,2004(10)
[20]樊莹.中国参与区域经济一体化的战略利益与特点[J].国际经济与合作,2005(3)
[21]高连福.东北亚国家对外战略[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2002.192-193
[22]麻彦春,童欣.东北亚区域经济合作的切入点[J].东北亚论坛,2001(1)
[23]21世纪韩国构建东北亚经济中心的设想及对周边的战略[EB/OL].http://www.ecdc.net.cn/events/dby/06/,2006-3-29
[24]韩国要建立自主国防力量争当东北亚“均衡者”[EB/OL]. http://www.southcn.com/news/international/gjkd/200506080577.htm,2005-06-08
[25]傅新.东北亚区域经济合作动因探析.现代国际关系,2003(1)
[26] 大卫·A·鲍德温.新现实主义和新自由主义[M].杭州:浙江人民出版社,2001.70
[27]母爱英.论博弈分析在区域政策中的运用[J].经济地理,2003(1)
[28]徐克,刘卫东.从“六方会谈”看东北亚经济合作[J].东北亚论坛,2005(3)
[29]陆建人.10+3框架下的东北亚区域合作——兼谈对东北亚合作的几点新认识[J].东北亚论坛,2005(1)
[30]池元吉.历史和现实的呼唤:创造中、日、韩经济共同体[J].东北亚论坛,2000(4)
[31]冯舜华.东北经济区域合作的模式问题[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版),2004(4)
[32]李玉潭,庞德良.东北亚区域经济合作新构想[J].东北亚论坛,2000(4)
[33]宋晓东.东亚区域经济合作主导力量分析[J].经济师,2005(11)
[34]庞德良,安磊.论日韩进程中的主要问题及其解决路径[J].东北亚论坛,2005(4)
[35]李玉潭,陈志恒.区域径济一体化时代的东此亚区域径济合作[J].东北亚论坛,2005(2)
[36]陈志恒,金京淑.东北亚能源安全与东北亚能源共同体探讨[J].东北亚论坛,2005(6)
[37]吕长江,韩慧博,赵 岩.中韩金融合作的战略研究[J].东北亚论坛,2005(2)
[38]潘轶明,张清华.区域经济机制设计的博弈分析[J].河北理工学院学报(社会科学版),2003(11)
[39]孙利辉,徐寅峰,李纯青.合作竞争博弈模型及其应用[J].系统工程学报2000(1)
[40]吴昊,杨梅英,陈良猷.合作竞争博弈中的复杂性与演化均衡的稳定性分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004(2)
[41]吴海滨,李垣,谢恩.基于博弈观点的促进联盟合作机制设置[J].系统工程理论方法应用,2004(2)
[42]李再,陈旭东.基于博弈论的合作竞争战略[J].中国软科学,2001(9)
[43]赵海琦,陈晔.基于博弈论的竞争与合作关系[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2004(7)
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