基于产业结构优化的节能减排演化模型及情景预测
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摘要
随着经济的迅速发展,中国的能源消耗量不断增长,国内生产总值由1978年的3645.22亿元,增长到2009年340506.87亿元,同时能源消费量也由1978年的5.71亿吨标准煤,增长到2009年的30.66亿吨标准煤。初步统计,2010年我国能源消费总量已达32.5亿吨标准煤,其中煤炭消耗量为22.7亿吨标准煤,约占69.94%。这样高耗能经济增长方式和能源消费结构导致了严重的环境污染,到2009年,工业废水排放量达到209.03亿吨,经济发展与能源消耗、环境污染的矛盾日趋尖锐,节能减排的压力进一步加大。
本文从中国能源环境现状出发,基于产业结构发展趋势及其演变规律,运用投入产出分析法,对现有数据进行分析,结合演化理论提出能源消耗演化目标和污染排放演化目标,建立节能减排下的离散动态演化模型,深入探讨节能减排策略和优化产业结构方法。运用该模型对中国以及长三角两省一市地区2000-2008年的数据进行拟合检验,并给予实证分析。研究结果表明,优化产业结构是实现节能减排的策略之一,应适当降低第二产业的产值,重点发展第三产业。基于该模型,运用情景分析法,对中国2009-2015年的经济产值、能源消耗及污染排放进行预测,并对预测结果进行演化情景分析。为中国制定相应的节能减排策略、实现产业结构优化提供了理论依据,为实现可持续发展提供了一个全新的视角和路线。
最后,本文认为,实现我国节能减排的目标,优化产业结构是重要的途径之一,除此之外,我们还要提高能源技术,改善我国能源结构,大力发展新能源产业。
With the economy rapidly develops, energy consumption of China continuously grows. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 364.522 billion in 1978, but it gets to 34050.687 billion in 2009. At the same time, energy consumption is 0.571 billion ton of standard coal equivalent (tce) in 1987, but it gets to 3.066 billion tce in 2009. Energy consumption is about 3.25 billion tee in 2010, and coal consumption gets to 2.27 billion tce, which accouts for 69.94 percent of the whole energy consumption. The economic growth mode of high energy consumption and energy consumption structure result in serious environment pollution. The volume of industrial wastewater discharge gets to 209.03 billion tons. The contradiction between economic development and energy consumption and environment pollution increasingly sharps, so the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction increases.
Considering the status quo of China's energy and environment, and based on the development trend and evolution law of industrial structure, this paper analyses the available data using input-output analysis method. The paper uses the evolution theory to put up evolution trend goal of energy consumption and pollution discharge, and sets up a dynamic model of energy conservation and emission reduction to study the strategy of energy conservation and emission reduction and the method of optimizing industrial structure. Use the model to calculate and analyse the data of China and the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2008. The result shows that optimizing industrial structure is a strategy of realizing energy conversation and emission reduction. We should decrease the Gross Domestic Product of secondary industry, and pay attention to the development of tertiary industry. Based on the model, the paper uses scenario analysis to forecast China's economic product, energy consumption and pollution discharge from 2009 to 2015, and analyses the prediction result. The paper provides theoretical basis for mading the strategy of energy conversation and emission reduction and optimizing industrial structure. At the same time, it provides a new perspective for realizing the sustainable development of economy, energy and environment in China.
Finally, the article believes that optimizing the industrial structure plays an important part to realize the goal of energy conversation and emission reduction. But we also should improve the energy technology, optimize energy structure and develop new energy industry.
本文从中国能源环境现状出发,基于产业结构发展趋势及其演变规律,运用投入产出分析法,对现有数据进行分析,结合演化理论提出能源消耗演化目标和污染排放演化目标,建立节能减排下的离散动态演化模型,深入探讨节能减排策略和优化产业结构方法。运用该模型对中国以及长三角两省一市地区2000-2008年的数据进行拟合检验,并给予实证分析。研究结果表明,优化产业结构是实现节能减排的策略之一,应适当降低第二产业的产值,重点发展第三产业。基于该模型,运用情景分析法,对中国2009-2015年的经济产值、能源消耗及污染排放进行预测,并对预测结果进行演化情景分析。为中国制定相应的节能减排策略、实现产业结构优化提供了理论依据,为实现可持续发展提供了一个全新的视角和路线。
最后,本文认为,实现我国节能减排的目标,优化产业结构是重要的途径之一,除此之外,我们还要提高能源技术,改善我国能源结构,大力发展新能源产业。
With the economy rapidly develops, energy consumption of China continuously grows. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 364.522 billion in 1978, but it gets to 34050.687 billion in 2009. At the same time, energy consumption is 0.571 billion ton of standard coal equivalent (tce) in 1987, but it gets to 3.066 billion tce in 2009. Energy consumption is about 3.25 billion tee in 2010, and coal consumption gets to 2.27 billion tce, which accouts for 69.94 percent of the whole energy consumption. The economic growth mode of high energy consumption and energy consumption structure result in serious environment pollution. The volume of industrial wastewater discharge gets to 209.03 billion tons. The contradiction between economic development and energy consumption and environment pollution increasingly sharps, so the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction increases.
Considering the status quo of China's energy and environment, and based on the development trend and evolution law of industrial structure, this paper analyses the available data using input-output analysis method. The paper uses the evolution theory to put up evolution trend goal of energy consumption and pollution discharge, and sets up a dynamic model of energy conservation and emission reduction to study the strategy of energy conservation and emission reduction and the method of optimizing industrial structure. Use the model to calculate and analyse the data of China and the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2008. The result shows that optimizing industrial structure is a strategy of realizing energy conversation and emission reduction. We should decrease the Gross Domestic Product of secondary industry, and pay attention to the development of tertiary industry. Based on the model, the paper uses scenario analysis to forecast China's economic product, energy consumption and pollution discharge from 2009 to 2015, and analyses the prediction result. The paper provides theoretical basis for mading the strategy of energy conversation and emission reduction and optimizing industrial structure. At the same time, it provides a new perspective for realizing the sustainable development of economy, energy and environment in China.
Finally, the article believes that optimizing the industrial structure plays an important part to realize the goal of energy conversation and emission reduction. But we also should improve the energy technology, optimize energy structure and develop new energy industry.
引文
[1]林伯强.高级能源经济学[M].中国财政经济出版社.2009.
[2]Olutomi I. A, Lester C. H. Modelling OECD industrial energy demand:Asymmetric price responses and energy-saving technical change [J]. Energy Economics,2007, (29):693-709.
[3]R. Saidur, N.A. Rahim, M. Hasanuzzaman. A review on compressed-air energy use and energy savings [J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2010, (14):1135-1153.
[4]Ferda H. An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreigntrade in Turkey [J]. Energy Policy,2009, (37):1156-1164.
[5]Sergio M, Miranda-da-Cruz. A model approach for analysing trends in energy supply and demand at country level:Case study of industrial development in China [J]. Energy Economics,2007,29(4):913-933.
[6]Stela Z. Tsani. Energy consumption and economic growth:A causality analysis for Greece [J]. Energy Economics,2010,32(3):582-590.
[7]Michael Dalton, Brian O'Neill, Alexia Prskawetz, Leiwen Jiang, John Pitkin. Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States [J]. Energy Economics,2008, 30(2):642-675.
[8]Reyer Gerlagh. A climate-change policy induced shift from innovations in carbon-energy production to carbon-energy savings [J]. Energy Economics,2008,30(2):425-448.
[9]E.A. Abdelaziz, R. Saidur, S. Mekhilef. A review on energy saving strategies in industrial sector [J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2011, (15):150-168.
[10]Jorge Alberto Rosas-Flores, Dionicio Rosas-Flores, David Morillon Galvez. Saturation, energy consumption, CO2 emission and energy efficiency from urban and rural households appliances in Mexico [J]. Energy and Buildings,2011,43(1):10-18.
[11]M.D. Schicktanz, J. Wapler, H.-M. Henning. Primary energy and economic analysis of combined heating, cooling and power systems [J]. Energy,2011,(36):575-585.
[12]Ullash K. Rout, Alfred Vob, Anoop Singh, Ulrich Fahl, Markus Blesl, Brian P.O Gallachoir. Energy and emissions forecast of China over a long-time horizon[J]. Energy,2011,36 (1):1-11.
[13]Seyed Hashem Mousavi-Avval, Shahin Rafiee, Ali Jafari, Ali Mohammadi. Improving energy use efficiency of canola production using data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach [J]. Energy,36(5):2765-2772.
[14]Antonio VanderleyHerreroSola, CarolineMariadeMirandaMota, Jo-ao LuizKovaleski. A model for improving energy efficiency in industrial motor system using multicriteria analysis [J]. Energy Policy,2011,39(6):3645-3654.
[15]Gu Jianya. Thoughts on How to Improve the System Construction of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in China [J]. Energy Procedia,2011, (5):793-797.
[16]Linwei Ma, Pei Liu, Feng Fu, Zheng Li, Weidou Ni. Integrated energy strategy for the sustainable development of China [J]. Energy,2011,36(2):1143-1154.
[17]Liu Xiuli. Probing the Guiding Role of Taxation in Energy-Saving and Emission-Reducing Technology [J]. Energy Procedia,2011, (5):20-24.
[18]Chen Mingsheng, Gu Yulu. The Mechanism and Measures of Adjustment of Industrial Organization Structure:the Perspective of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction [J]. Energy Procedia,2011,(5):2562-2567.
[19]Wang Di, Nie Rui, Shi Hai-ying。Analysis of Regional Differences in Energy Consumption and Energy saving Potential for Yangtze River Delta [J]. Energy Procedia,2011,(5): 690-694.
[20]Xiaoli Zhao, Haitao Yin. Industrial relocation and energy consumption:Evidence from China [J]. Energy Policy,2011,39(5):2944-2956.
[21]Jian Hou, Peidong Zhang, Yongsheng Tian, Xianzheng Yuan, Yanli Yang. Developing low-carbon economy:Actions, challenges and solutions for energy savings in China [J]. Renewable Energy,2011,36(11):3037-3042.
[22]Gwo-Ching Liao. A novel evolutionary algorithm for dynamic economic dispatch with energy saving and emission reduction in power system integrated wind power[J]. Energy, 2011,(36):1018-1029.
[23]吴智泉,周少祥,安连锁,史海林.基于终端产品燃料单耗的节能减排评价体系[J].动力工程学报,2010,30(6)：467-472.
[24]何伟,秦宁,何玘霜,王雁,徐福留.节能减排绩效及其与经济效益协调性的监控和评估[J].环境科学学报,2010,30(7)：1499-1509.
[25]陈一萍.基于密切值法的节能减排评价研究[J].生态环境学报,2010,19(2)：419-422.
[26]原毅军,董琨.节能减排约束下的中国产业结构优化问题研究[J].工业技术经济,2008,27(8)：53-55.
[27]Zhang X P, Cheng X M. Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China[J]. Ecological Economics,2009, (68):2706-2712.
[28]Long R Y, Yu L. Study on regulation design about energy-saving and emission-reduction based on game theory[J]. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science,2009, (1):1641-1646.
[29]后勇,徐福缘,程纬.基于可再生能源替代的经济持续发展模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2008,28(9)：67-72.
[30]夏炎,杨翠红,陈锡康.基于可比价投入产出表分解我国能源强度影响因素[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(10)：21-27.
[31]田立新,刘晶.能源强度研究中能源价格影响的实证分析[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(9)：1-6.
[32]包森,田立新,王军帅.中国能源生产与消费趋势预测和碳排放研究[J].自然资源学报.2010,25(8)：1248-1254
[33]Zhang B B, Tian L X. Analysis of China's Energy Intensity and Its Forecast[J]. International Journal of Nonlinear Science,2010,9(3):320-324.
[34]顾锡新,田瑞雪,章树荣.长三角清洁能源发展现状及其对策研究[J].能源技术,2006,27(3)：117-119.
[35]吴开尧,朱启贵.长三角能源消费的能源流分析[J].上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2009,17(6)：49-59.
[36]吴红梅.长三角地区能耗特点与节能对策研究[J].中国能源,2007,29(8)：22-34.
[37]俞林,徐立青.长三角能源、环境与经济增长关系计量分析和比较[J].云南财经大学学报,2010,25(4)：82～84.
[38]吴开尧,朱启贵.长三角能源可持续发展综合评价——基于模糊层次分析法[J].现代管理科学,2010,(8)：6-8.
[39]张德勇,张宏艳.产业结构研究导论[M],知识产权出版社,2008.
[40]苏东水.产业经济学[M],北京：高等教育出版社,2006.
[41]苏东水.产业经济学.北京：高等教育出版社,2000.
[42]史忠良.产业经济学.北京：经济管理出版社,1998.
[43]杨公仆,夏大慰.产业经济学教程.上海：上海财经大学出版社,1998.
[44]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴2000-2010[M].中国统计出版社.
[45]盛昭瀚,蒋德鹏.演化经济学[M].上海三联书店,2002.
[46]林伯强.现代能源经济学[M].中国财政经济出版社.2007.
[47]江苏省统计局.2004-2008年浙江统计年鉴[EB/OL]. http://www.jssb.gov.cn/jstj/tjsj/tjnj/
[48]浙江省统计局.2004-2008年浙江统计年鉴[EB/OL].http://www.zj.stats.gov.cn/col/col1321/index.html
[49]上海统计局.2004-2008年上海统计年鉴[EB/OL]. http://www.stats-sh.gov.cn/data/release.xhtml
[2]Olutomi I. A, Lester C. H. Modelling OECD industrial energy demand:Asymmetric price responses and energy-saving technical change [J]. Energy Economics,2007, (29):693-709.
[3]R. Saidur, N.A. Rahim, M. Hasanuzzaman. A review on compressed-air energy use and energy savings [J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2010, (14):1135-1153.
[4]Ferda H. An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreigntrade in Turkey [J]. Energy Policy,2009, (37):1156-1164.
[5]Sergio M, Miranda-da-Cruz. A model approach for analysing trends in energy supply and demand at country level:Case study of industrial development in China [J]. Energy Economics,2007,29(4):913-933.
[6]Stela Z. Tsani. Energy consumption and economic growth:A causality analysis for Greece [J]. Energy Economics,2010,32(3):582-590.
[7]Michael Dalton, Brian O'Neill, Alexia Prskawetz, Leiwen Jiang, John Pitkin. Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States [J]. Energy Economics,2008, 30(2):642-675.
[8]Reyer Gerlagh. A climate-change policy induced shift from innovations in carbon-energy production to carbon-energy savings [J]. Energy Economics,2008,30(2):425-448.
[9]E.A. Abdelaziz, R. Saidur, S. Mekhilef. A review on energy saving strategies in industrial sector [J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2011, (15):150-168.
[10]Jorge Alberto Rosas-Flores, Dionicio Rosas-Flores, David Morillon Galvez. Saturation, energy consumption, CO2 emission and energy efficiency from urban and rural households appliances in Mexico [J]. Energy and Buildings,2011,43(1):10-18.
[11]M.D. Schicktanz, J. Wapler, H.-M. Henning. Primary energy and economic analysis of combined heating, cooling and power systems [J]. Energy,2011,(36):575-585.
[12]Ullash K. Rout, Alfred Vob, Anoop Singh, Ulrich Fahl, Markus Blesl, Brian P.O Gallachoir. Energy and emissions forecast of China over a long-time horizon[J]. Energy,2011,36 (1):1-11.
[13]Seyed Hashem Mousavi-Avval, Shahin Rafiee, Ali Jafari, Ali Mohammadi. Improving energy use efficiency of canola production using data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach [J]. Energy,36(5):2765-2772.
[14]Antonio VanderleyHerreroSola, CarolineMariadeMirandaMota, Jo-ao LuizKovaleski. A model for improving energy efficiency in industrial motor system using multicriteria analysis [J]. Energy Policy,2011,39(6):3645-3654.
[15]Gu Jianya. Thoughts on How to Improve the System Construction of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in China [J]. Energy Procedia,2011, (5):793-797.
[16]Linwei Ma, Pei Liu, Feng Fu, Zheng Li, Weidou Ni. Integrated energy strategy for the sustainable development of China [J]. Energy,2011,36(2):1143-1154.
[17]Liu Xiuli. Probing the Guiding Role of Taxation in Energy-Saving and Emission-Reducing Technology [J]. Energy Procedia,2011, (5):20-24.
[18]Chen Mingsheng, Gu Yulu. The Mechanism and Measures of Adjustment of Industrial Organization Structure:the Perspective of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction [J]. Energy Procedia,2011,(5):2562-2567.
[19]Wang Di, Nie Rui, Shi Hai-ying。Analysis of Regional Differences in Energy Consumption and Energy saving Potential for Yangtze River Delta [J]. Energy Procedia,2011,(5): 690-694.
[20]Xiaoli Zhao, Haitao Yin. Industrial relocation and energy consumption:Evidence from China [J]. Energy Policy,2011,39(5):2944-2956.
[21]Jian Hou, Peidong Zhang, Yongsheng Tian, Xianzheng Yuan, Yanli Yang. Developing low-carbon economy:Actions, challenges and solutions for energy savings in China [J]. Renewable Energy,2011,36(11):3037-3042.
[22]Gwo-Ching Liao. A novel evolutionary algorithm for dynamic economic dispatch with energy saving and emission reduction in power system integrated wind power[J]. Energy, 2011,(36):1018-1029.
[23]吴智泉,周少祥,安连锁,史海林.基于终端产品燃料单耗的节能减排评价体系[J].动力工程学报,2010,30(6)：467-472.
[24]何伟,秦宁,何玘霜,王雁,徐福留.节能减排绩效及其与经济效益协调性的监控和评估[J].环境科学学报,2010,30(7)：1499-1509.
[25]陈一萍.基于密切值法的节能减排评价研究[J].生态环境学报,2010,19(2)：419-422.
[26]原毅军,董琨.节能减排约束下的中国产业结构优化问题研究[J].工业技术经济,2008,27(8)：53-55.
[27]Zhang X P, Cheng X M. Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China[J]. Ecological Economics,2009, (68):2706-2712.
[28]Long R Y, Yu L. Study on regulation design about energy-saving and emission-reduction based on game theory[J]. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science,2009, (1):1641-1646.
[29]后勇,徐福缘,程纬.基于可再生能源替代的经济持续发展模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2008,28(9)：67-72.
[30]夏炎,杨翠红,陈锡康.基于可比价投入产出表分解我国能源强度影响因素[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(10)：21-27.
[31]田立新,刘晶.能源强度研究中能源价格影响的实证分析[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(9)：1-6.
[32]包森,田立新,王军帅.中国能源生产与消费趋势预测和碳排放研究[J].自然资源学报.2010,25(8)：1248-1254
[33]Zhang B B, Tian L X. Analysis of China's Energy Intensity and Its Forecast[J]. International Journal of Nonlinear Science,2010,9(3):320-324.
[34]顾锡新,田瑞雪,章树荣.长三角清洁能源发展现状及其对策研究[J].能源技术,2006,27(3)：117-119.
[35]吴开尧,朱启贵.长三角能源消费的能源流分析[J].上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2009,17(6)：49-59.
[36]吴红梅.长三角地区能耗特点与节能对策研究[J].中国能源,2007,29(8)：22-34.
[37]俞林,徐立青.长三角能源、环境与经济增长关系计量分析和比较[J].云南财经大学学报,2010,25(4)：82～84.
[38]吴开尧,朱启贵.长三角能源可持续发展综合评价——基于模糊层次分析法[J].现代管理科学,2010,(8)：6-8.
[39]张德勇,张宏艳.产业结构研究导论[M],知识产权出版社,2008.
[40]苏东水.产业经济学[M],北京：高等教育出版社,2006.
[41]苏东水.产业经济学.北京：高等教育出版社,2000.
[42]史忠良.产业经济学.北京：经济管理出版社,1998.
[43]杨公仆,夏大慰.产业经济学教程.上海：上海财经大学出版社,1998.
[44]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴2000-2010[M].中国统计出版社.
[45]盛昭瀚,蒋德鹏.演化经济学[M].上海三联书店,2002.
[46]林伯强.现代能源经济学[M].中国财政经济出版社.2007.
[47]江苏省统计局.2004-2008年浙江统计年鉴[EB/OL]. http://www.jssb.gov.cn/jstj/tjsj/tjnj/
[48]浙江省统计局.2004-2008年浙江统计年鉴[EB/OL].http://www.zj.stats.gov.cn/col/col1321/index.html
[49]上海统计局.2004-2008年上海统计年鉴[EB/OL]. http://www.stats-sh.gov.cn/data/release.xhtml