兰州市房地产价格影响因素研究
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摘要
随着我国的经济的快速发展,住房制度改革的深化,房地产业创造价值在国民经济中的总量不断提高,日益凸显其在经济和社会发展中的重要地位。由于房地产价格的不断上涨,房地产价格问题成为房地产研究的重点,房地产价格问题的研究是房地产泡沫,房地产金融风险等研究的基础。通过房地产价格研究中价格影响因素的研究从价格形成本质、价格构成、各因素影响程度来揭示价格变化的原理。从住房制度改革初期到现在,兰州市房地产市场已具规模,房地产经济在经济发展中占有越来越重要的地位,与此同时房价格也持续快速上涨。虽然2008年开始,全国多个城市价格出现下降趋势,兰州市房价仍持续上升,形成了收入相对较低但房价相对其他城市较高的局面。在此背景下,兰州市房地产价格影响因素研究对于稳定房地产价格、预防潜在金融风险、解决民生问题都有着很强的现实意义。
兰州市房地产市场日趋成熟,但仍存在诸多问题。从2000年至2006年经历快速增长,房屋供给量不断增加,竣工面积已达90.15814万平方米,增长近2倍;需求量持续增加,销售面积已达206.17万平方米,年均增长26%,销售额达5.27032亿元,年均增长39%;价格持续上涨,2008年上半年均价达3058元/平方米,城区最高均价已达7000元/平方米。兰州市房地产市场中,商品房供给结构不合理,空置率较高,保障性住房制度不完善,房价偏高,抵御金融风险能力低等问题尤为突出,影响其健康发展。
通过对兰州市房地产价格影响因素的定性分析,确定了房地产价格的影响因素,并分析了各因素如何对房价变动起作用。作为供给因素的房地产开发投资额、竣工房屋面积、竣工房屋价值等指标大幅增加,但由于供给结构不合理,有效供给不足,导致价格不断上升;作为需求因素的商品房销售面积、城市人均居住使用面积,居民收入等也持续上升,需求增加激化供需矛盾导致价格上涨;金融因素包括企业和个人从金融机构可获得的资金总和,这一因素同时作用于供给和需求,在房地产开发和消费环节商业贷款比例过大导致金融风险加大;地理位置因素对兰州市房价的影响比较大,主要因为交通不便和居住习惯。
在实证研究中,利用灰色关联度分析方法对各房地产价格影响因素进行了相关性排序。排序结果和关联度依次为城市人均可支配收入(0.7892)、GDP(0.7880)、商品房销售面积(0.7145)、企业贷款和个人住房贷款合计(0.7079)、城市人口总量(0.6987)、城市人均居住面积(0.6282)、竣工房屋面积(0.5404)。
本文针对稳定房地产价格提出相关建议和措施。调整商品房供给结构,减少空置率,增加有效供给;充实保障性住房,实现居者有其屋;完善金融产品,提高金融安全,合理控制投机需求的刺激;大力发展城市快速公共交通,通过改变兰州市交通现状来改变商品房分布格局,扩大可开发范围;同时大力发展经济,提高居民收入。通过多渠道,多手段平抑商品房价格的过快上涨,预防金融风险,关注民生。
With developing of economy and deepening of Housing reform, value Created by the real estate industry are growing. Real estate occupy Important position in economy and society development gradually. because of the continuing rise of real estate, real estate price study become more and more urgent. Study of real estate is the basic of real estate bubble and real estate finance risk analyzing. The study of real estate price is composed of price forming , influence factors, and reveal the changing principle. It is important to macro-control, market-mature, finance risk-defend, and the people's livelihood. The article take Lanzhou real estate market for an example. By studying influence factors of real estate price, the factors can be decided, influence extent sequence .Finally, to find the problem in Lanzhou Housing market and make some proposal to solve them.
By Lanzhou real estate market developing , it is much problem in it. From 2000 to 2007, the market grew rapidly. Supply in on the rise. Completion of housing area have reached to 901581.4 Sq.m,3 times as many as 2000. Completion of housing value have reached to 5.09261 Billion Yuan, 5 times as many as 2000. On the other hand, demand increased steadily. Floor Space of Buildings Sold have reached to 2061.7 thousands Sq.m. The annual average growth rate is 26%. Sale have reached to 0.527032 billion Yuan. The annual average growth rate is 39%. The real estate price is on the sharply rise. Average price is 1460.33 Yuan/sq in2000,2556.30yuan/sq in 2006,In the First Half of the Year, have reached to3058yuan/sq.In this market, there’s much problem. Higher price is more critical.
The article takes qualitative analysis measure to analyze influence factors of housing price. influence factors of housing price involve the number of real estate enterprise,GDP, real estate investment, real estate investment rate, completion of housing area, completion of housing value, floor space of buildings sold, Sale, average living floor area per capital, resident income, Loans to Enterprises and individual housing loans, Geographical position. Finally, the article draw the qualitative analysis conclusion.
The article take quantitative analysis Research Methods to analyze influence factors of housing price. using Gray relation degree to make Relevance ranking. The ranking result like this: real disposable per capita income(0.7892),GDP(0.7880),floor space of buildings sold(0.7145),Loans to Enterprises and individual housing loans(0.7079),total number of population(0.6987)、average living floor area per capital(0.6282),completion of housing area(0.5404).
On above all, The article make some Suggestions on these problem: Adjusting housing structure, lowering housing vacancy rate, rising effective supply, Adjusting government-subsidized houses; Making further development on financial system, improving Financial security, controlling excessive speculation.; By Improving rapid transit system to enlarge city Living Area; By development of economy to improve disposable capita income. Taking much measures to control the rapid rising of housing price, to defend finance risk, to give special attention to livelihood issues.
兰州市房地产市场日趋成熟,但仍存在诸多问题。从2000年至2006年经历快速增长,房屋供给量不断增加,竣工面积已达90.15814万平方米,增长近2倍;需求量持续增加,销售面积已达206.17万平方米,年均增长26%,销售额达5.27032亿元,年均增长39%;价格持续上涨,2008年上半年均价达3058元/平方米,城区最高均价已达7000元/平方米。兰州市房地产市场中,商品房供给结构不合理,空置率较高,保障性住房制度不完善,房价偏高,抵御金融风险能力低等问题尤为突出,影响其健康发展。
通过对兰州市房地产价格影响因素的定性分析,确定了房地产价格的影响因素,并分析了各因素如何对房价变动起作用。作为供给因素的房地产开发投资额、竣工房屋面积、竣工房屋价值等指标大幅增加,但由于供给结构不合理,有效供给不足,导致价格不断上升;作为需求因素的商品房销售面积、城市人均居住使用面积,居民收入等也持续上升,需求增加激化供需矛盾导致价格上涨;金融因素包括企业和个人从金融机构可获得的资金总和,这一因素同时作用于供给和需求,在房地产开发和消费环节商业贷款比例过大导致金融风险加大;地理位置因素对兰州市房价的影响比较大,主要因为交通不便和居住习惯。
在实证研究中,利用灰色关联度分析方法对各房地产价格影响因素进行了相关性排序。排序结果和关联度依次为城市人均可支配收入(0.7892)、GDP(0.7880)、商品房销售面积(0.7145)、企业贷款和个人住房贷款合计(0.7079)、城市人口总量(0.6987)、城市人均居住面积(0.6282)、竣工房屋面积(0.5404)。
本文针对稳定房地产价格提出相关建议和措施。调整商品房供给结构,减少空置率,增加有效供给;充实保障性住房,实现居者有其屋;完善金融产品,提高金融安全,合理控制投机需求的刺激;大力发展城市快速公共交通,通过改变兰州市交通现状来改变商品房分布格局,扩大可开发范围;同时大力发展经济,提高居民收入。通过多渠道,多手段平抑商品房价格的过快上涨,预防金融风险,关注民生。
With developing of economy and deepening of Housing reform, value Created by the real estate industry are growing. Real estate occupy Important position in economy and society development gradually. because of the continuing rise of real estate, real estate price study become more and more urgent. Study of real estate is the basic of real estate bubble and real estate finance risk analyzing. The study of real estate price is composed of price forming , influence factors, and reveal the changing principle. It is important to macro-control, market-mature, finance risk-defend, and the people's livelihood. The article take Lanzhou real estate market for an example. By studying influence factors of real estate price, the factors can be decided, influence extent sequence .Finally, to find the problem in Lanzhou Housing market and make some proposal to solve them.
By Lanzhou real estate market developing , it is much problem in it. From 2000 to 2007, the market grew rapidly. Supply in on the rise. Completion of housing area have reached to 901581.4 Sq.m,3 times as many as 2000. Completion of housing value have reached to 5.09261 Billion Yuan, 5 times as many as 2000. On the other hand, demand increased steadily. Floor Space of Buildings Sold have reached to 2061.7 thousands Sq.m. The annual average growth rate is 26%. Sale have reached to 0.527032 billion Yuan. The annual average growth rate is 39%. The real estate price is on the sharply rise. Average price is 1460.33 Yuan/sq in2000,2556.30yuan/sq in 2006,In the First Half of the Year, have reached to3058yuan/sq.In this market, there’s much problem. Higher price is more critical.
The article takes qualitative analysis measure to analyze influence factors of housing price. influence factors of housing price involve the number of real estate enterprise,GDP, real estate investment, real estate investment rate, completion of housing area, completion of housing value, floor space of buildings sold, Sale, average living floor area per capital, resident income, Loans to Enterprises and individual housing loans, Geographical position. Finally, the article draw the qualitative analysis conclusion.
The article take quantitative analysis Research Methods to analyze influence factors of housing price. using Gray relation degree to make Relevance ranking. The ranking result like this: real disposable per capita income(0.7892),GDP(0.7880),floor space of buildings sold(0.7145),Loans to Enterprises and individual housing loans(0.7079),total number of population(0.6987)、average living floor area per capital(0.6282),completion of housing area(0.5404).
On above all, The article make some Suggestions on these problem: Adjusting housing structure, lowering housing vacancy rate, rising effective supply, Adjusting government-subsidized houses; Making further development on financial system, improving Financial security, controlling excessive speculation.; By Improving rapid transit system to enlarge city Living Area; By development of economy to improve disposable capita income. Taking much measures to control the rapid rising of housing price, to defend finance risk, to give special attention to livelihood issues.
引文
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