中小城市商业网点选址决策支持系统研究
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摘要
随着我国经济的快速发展,城市化及城市扩张加快,中小城市由于人口数量、城市规模以及产业发展重点与大中城市不同,商业网点规模的确定和布局也有所不同。对于当前我国600多个中小城镇来说,其商业网点规划不但需要确立自身的发展框架,逐步形成合理的用地开发时序,更要注重商业网点建设和规划的独特性,比如突出地方特色和充分发挥商业中心的人文内涵等,这也是贯彻“科学发展,和谐发展”的体现。如何依据科学理论,充分利用空间信息技术的优势来研究、分析和管理网点数据,并为城镇商业网点分布提供合理的布局和规划,已成为企业迫在眉睫的问题和重大的挑战。然而地理信息系统的空间数据分析与可视化表达与决策支持系统的数据判断能力,计算最优解并进行科学预测能力的相互集成,完美的解决了这一问题。
     本文首先从影响中小城市商业网点选址的因子因素入手,对比分析中小城市网点选址与大城市网点选址的相似性和差异性,并通过专家咨询等方式确立选址影响因素及其权重。整个选址过程由粗选和精选两大部分构成,粗选过程涉及到公交便捷度、道路通达性、人口估算等五个影响因素的获取和运算;精选址是在粗选的基础上采用基于K-Means聚类的粒子对搜索算法确定。最后,采用AO+VB二次开发方式,进行“中小城市商业网点选址决策支持系统”开发。文章的主要工作和创新点如下:
     (1)查阅国内外相关研究,针对我国中小城网点建设现状及国家对中小城市商业发展规划的重要指示,提出建立市级、区域级和社区级三个级别的商业网点布局框架和粗选、精选技术路线。
     (2)对比分析中小城市和大城市网点建设影响因素相似性和差异性,采用定性和定量分析相结合的方法,确立影响因素,并对各影响因素进行作用分值计算。
     (3)讨论通过高分辩率遥感影像在地方建筑特色浓厚、居民地分布零散的中小城市城区进行人口数据获取的思路和误差分析方法。结果表明,采用改进的土地利用密度法进行人口估算,其数据精度满足商业网点选址的需要。
     (4)把K-Means聚类分析法引入粒子对算法,同时采用“窗口“搜索方法在粗选区域进行最优位置搜索,并以开封市商业网点选址为例实证研究,模拟结果与现实相符。
     (5)以Geodatabase数据库为基础,开发中小城市商业网点选址决策支持系统,系统涵盖了数据编辑、矢量数据处理、栅格数据处理、PSO精选址操作和专题图输出五大功能,同时,友好界面及人性化操作使用户可以方便的进行各种影响因素的查询及网点选址操作。
     通过以上研究得出,建立在相关理论基础上的中小城市商业网点选址决策支持系统,结合了以往商业网点选址工作的经验成果,具备了较强的操作性。本系统实现了中小城市商业网点选址的自动化和智能化,用计算机处理网点数据和网点因素数据,并对各类数据建表入库,不但有利于新建网点的查询分析,更利于后期的网点规划管理和建设布局,相比传统的图纸操作和人为经验选址更具科学性和准确性。
With China's rapid economic development, urbanization and urban expansion accelerated, however, city planning and rational distribution business to ensure the sound development of urban economy premise. As small and medium cities in population, city size and development of key industries and cities and so different, so, to determine the scale of commercial net sites and distribution are also different. For the current more than 600 small towns in China, its commercial net sites planning is not only necessary to establish its own development framework,and gradually form a reasonable sequence of land developmen, commercial networks have to pay attention to the unique nature of construction and planning,such as prominent local features and give full play to humanistic connotation of business center, which is also carrying out "scientific development, harmonical development" embodied. How scientific theories based on full use of the advantages of spatial information technology to research, analyze and manage network data and to provide a reasonable distribution of urban commercial network layout and planning, have become an urgent problem and a major challenge.GIS spatial data analysis and visualization of expression and decision support system data judgment,to compute the optimal solution and make the mutual integration of science and predictive power, the perfect solution to this problem.
     Firstly, from the impact of small city commercial network site factors, we compared small and medium cities and major cities in net sites’similarities and differences, and by way of expert advice to establish site factors and weight. The selection process is composed by two major parts----roughing and cocentration, the roughing process involves public transport convenience, road accessibility, the five factors of population estimates of the acquisition and operation; Concentration is selected on the basis of rough K-Means clustering based on the particle search algorithm. Finally, the use of AO + VB secondary development model, "small urban commercial network site Decision Support System". In a word, the main work and innovations in this article are done as follows:
     (1)Recent relevant studies in the construction of our network status in the town and country planning for medium and small urban commercial development an important directives,proposed the establishment of municipal, regional and community level of three levels of commercial network layout framework and roughing, contration technology line.
     (2)Comparison of small and medium cities and major cities in the factors affecting network similarities and differences,both qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, the establishment of influencing factors and the role of each factor score were calculated.
     (3)Discussion by high-resolution images in the local architectural features strong,, residents of small cities scattered distribution of population in urban areas for data acquisition and error analysis of the idea. The results show that the improved method of land use density of population estimates, the data accuracy can be applied to municipal and regional commercial network site area, and community-level population data because of its small size area can be obtained by field survey.
     (4)The K-Means cluster analysis algorithm into particles, while a "window" search method in the optimal position roughing region search, and location of Kaifeng City Commercial outlets empirical case study, simulation results with reality.
     (5)To Geodatabase based on small urban commercial network site development decision support system, the system covers five functions,including the data editing, vector data processing,raster data processing, PSO selected site operations and thematic map output function, while human-friendly interface and of operation allows the user to easily query various factors and the net site operation.
     Obtained through the above study, based on theories and the location of small city commercial network decision support system, combined with previous experience in commercial network site search results,with a strong operational.The system realizes the location of small city commercial network automation and intelligence with computer network data and network element data, and the construction of various types of data storage table is not only beneficial to the new network of query and analysis,is more conducive to the network later management and construction planning, compared to traditional operations and human experience,drawing more scientific and accurate location.
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