国际碳减排背景下我国碳权交易市场发展问题研究
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摘要
气候变暖现象日益显著的今天,如何能够有效的降低温室气体排放量,这是引起全球关注的话题。国际上一直在努力通过协商机制来达到全球共同减排的目标,但是各国历史二氧化碳排放量问题及面临的不同减排形势导致这种协商机制没能够取得突破性的进展。
1997年签订的《京都议定书》提供了三种灵活的减排机制：清洁发展机制(CDM)、联合履约(JI)、国际排放交易(IET)。本文首先以此作为出发点研究了国际碳权交易发展状况,重点研究了欧盟排放交易体系(EU ETS)和芝加哥气候交易所(CCX),并分析了这些交易体系的运行经验。其次,本文对我国的碳权交易市场发展状况进行分析,并深入研究了我国碳市场中存在的问题：减排措施的不可持续性、清洁发展机制的不确定性、碳金融产品匮乏、与碳有关的法律法规的缺失等。然后,本文对我国碳市场中碳减排量的供需状况进行了实证分析。由基于Kaya扩展式对我国1996-2009年的碳排放增长的影响因素进行对数平均Divisia指数分解(LMDI)实证分析,我们可以发现经济效应是造成我国碳排放增加的主要因素,而能耗强度则对我国减排起着重要作用。然后,我们利用碳排放量与GDP的关系对未来10年的碳排放量进行了预测。按照本文提出的三种减排情景假设,计算出我国碳减排供需方面存在的缺口,得出了我国需要通过碳权交易进行减排的结论。在综合以上研究的基础上,本文提出了我国碳减排交易市场的制度设计,为在当前国际碳减排背景下发展我国的碳权市场提供了一些思路。
Nowadays, as climate becomes more and more warms. It has raised global concerns about how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). To get the target of jointly reduce emissions internationally, negotiation mechanism was introduced. But as different countries emission differently and they faced different situations, it's hard to get a breakout with negation mechanism.
The Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997, offered three flexible reduction mechanisms, which is Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI) and International Emissions Trading (IET). Firstly, we described the development of the international emission trading system based on this, studying the European Union's Emissions Trading System and Chicago Climate Exchange. And later, we analyzed the experiences in these emissions system. Secondly, we analyzed the carbon market in China, and tried to find the problems existing in the market, such as the unsustainable of the current emission reduction measures, the uncertainty of Clean Development Mechanism, the lack of carbon finance products, the lack of carbon-related regulations. Thirdly, in the paper, we analyzed the supply and demand of carbon emission trading market in China by using empirical analysis. By using extended Kaya identity to decompose the driver factors for carbon emission increasing into the energy structure, energy intensity, economic development and population size, to analysis the carbon emission factors during the period of 1996-2009 in China with logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. We can conclude that economic development was the main factor contributes to the increase of carbon emissions, while the energy intensity plays an important role in emission reduction. Then, we predicted the carbon emissions in the next 10 years by using carbon emission and GDP. According to the three emission reduction scenarios assumption, we calculate the gaps between carbon demand and supply. So, we concluded carbon emission reduction trading market need to be developed in China. By study all above, the system design of the carbon emission trading market was given in this paper; it also provides some ideas about how to develop carbon emission trading market under the context of international emission reduction.
1997年签订的《京都议定书》提供了三种灵活的减排机制：清洁发展机制(CDM)、联合履约(JI)、国际排放交易(IET)。本文首先以此作为出发点研究了国际碳权交易发展状况,重点研究了欧盟排放交易体系(EU ETS)和芝加哥气候交易所(CCX),并分析了这些交易体系的运行经验。其次,本文对我国的碳权交易市场发展状况进行分析,并深入研究了我国碳市场中存在的问题：减排措施的不可持续性、清洁发展机制的不确定性、碳金融产品匮乏、与碳有关的法律法规的缺失等。然后,本文对我国碳市场中碳减排量的供需状况进行了实证分析。由基于Kaya扩展式对我国1996-2009年的碳排放增长的影响因素进行对数平均Divisia指数分解(LMDI)实证分析,我们可以发现经济效应是造成我国碳排放增加的主要因素,而能耗强度则对我国减排起着重要作用。然后,我们利用碳排放量与GDP的关系对未来10年的碳排放量进行了预测。按照本文提出的三种减排情景假设,计算出我国碳减排供需方面存在的缺口,得出了我国需要通过碳权交易进行减排的结论。在综合以上研究的基础上,本文提出了我国碳减排交易市场的制度设计,为在当前国际碳减排背景下发展我国的碳权市场提供了一些思路。
Nowadays, as climate becomes more and more warms. It has raised global concerns about how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). To get the target of jointly reduce emissions internationally, negotiation mechanism was introduced. But as different countries emission differently and they faced different situations, it's hard to get a breakout with negation mechanism.
The Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997, offered three flexible reduction mechanisms, which is Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI) and International Emissions Trading (IET). Firstly, we described the development of the international emission trading system based on this, studying the European Union's Emissions Trading System and Chicago Climate Exchange. And later, we analyzed the experiences in these emissions system. Secondly, we analyzed the carbon market in China, and tried to find the problems existing in the market, such as the unsustainable of the current emission reduction measures, the uncertainty of Clean Development Mechanism, the lack of carbon finance products, the lack of carbon-related regulations. Thirdly, in the paper, we analyzed the supply and demand of carbon emission trading market in China by using empirical analysis. By using extended Kaya identity to decompose the driver factors for carbon emission increasing into the energy structure, energy intensity, economic development and population size, to analysis the carbon emission factors during the period of 1996-2009 in China with logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. We can conclude that economic development was the main factor contributes to the increase of carbon emissions, while the energy intensity plays an important role in emission reduction. Then, we predicted the carbon emissions in the next 10 years by using carbon emission and GDP. According to the three emission reduction scenarios assumption, we calculate the gaps between carbon demand and supply. So, we concluded carbon emission reduction trading market need to be developed in China. By study all above, the system design of the carbon emission trading market was given in this paper; it also provides some ideas about how to develop carbon emission trading market under the context of international emission reduction.
引文
1 State and Trends of the Carbon Market. World Bank.2011,06
11992年《联合国气侯变化框架公约》
1 http://wiki.mbalib.com/zh-tw/%E7%A2%B3%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D
2张晓凤,蔡丽,基于项目的碳金融发展的模式研究——中国式碳金融发展状况分析,金融论坛
3周秋玲,苏依依.低碳经济时代中国碳金融体系的构建.新财经,2010.08
1郭日生,彭斯震.碳市场.科学出版社,2010
1即从2012年1月1日起,所有到、离欧盟机场的航班都将被征收排放交易税,而航空公司超过排放额度的则会交付罚款。我国的33家航空公司都将会被纳入这一减排体系。
1 http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/ch/3912-Cap-and-gamble最后访问日期2011年4月14日
2不过由于现在澳大利亚正在建立全国性的碳减排交易体系,新南威尔士排放交易体系将要停止运行。
1 Annual report on the market for RGGI CO2 allowances:2010 RGGI Inc.
2“后京都时代”的挑战,http://env.people.com.cn/GB/35525/3940641.html
1任勇.中国CDM与可持续发展.中国环境科学出版社,2010
1赵峰侠,徐明,齐哗.北京市汽车限行的环境和经济效益分析.生态经济,2010.12
1每年减排量与整个减排期内的总的减排量之比
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11992年《联合国气侯变化框架公约》
1 http://wiki.mbalib.com/zh-tw/%E7%A2%B3%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D
2张晓凤,蔡丽,基于项目的碳金融发展的模式研究——中国式碳金融发展状况分析,金融论坛
3周秋玲,苏依依.低碳经济时代中国碳金融体系的构建.新财经,2010.08
1郭日生,彭斯震.碳市场.科学出版社,2010
1即从2012年1月1日起,所有到、离欧盟机场的航班都将被征收排放交易税,而航空公司超过排放额度的则会交付罚款。我国的33家航空公司都将会被纳入这一减排体系。
1 http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/ch/3912-Cap-and-gamble最后访问日期2011年4月14日
2不过由于现在澳大利亚正在建立全国性的碳减排交易体系,新南威尔士排放交易体系将要停止运行。
1 Annual report on the market for RGGI CO2 allowances:2010 RGGI Inc.
2“后京都时代”的挑战,http://env.people.com.cn/GB/35525/3940641.html
1任勇.中国CDM与可持续发展.中国环境科学出版社,2010
1赵峰侠,徐明,齐哗.北京市汽车限行的环境和经济效益分析.生态经济,2010.12
1每年减排量与整个减排期内的总的减排量之比
[1]Richard Sandor, Michael Wash, Rafael Marques. Greenhouse-gas-trading markets[J].The Royal Society,25 June 2002
[2]Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,1997
[3]IETA:Greenhouse Gas Market 2008:Piecing Together a Comprehensive International Agreement for a Truly Global Carbon Market
[4]Nicholas Stern. The Economics of Climate Change:the Stern Review [M]. Cambridge University Press,2007
[5]Ellerman, Buchner. The European Union Trading Scheme Origins, Allocation, and Early Result[J].Review of Environmental Economics and Poliey,2007
[6]Ang, B.W., Zhang, F.Q., Choi, K.H.,1998. Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition. Energy
[7]B.W., Ang. The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis:a practical guide. Energy Policy, 2005
[8]ZhongXiang Zhang, Andrea Baranzini. What do we know about carbon taxes? Energy Policy,2003
[9]N. Gregory Mankiw. Smart Taxes:An Open Invitation to Join the Pigou Club. http://nrs. harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:4263740,2008
[10]Susan Sunila Sharma. Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions:Empirical evidence from 69 countries. Applied Energy,2010
[11]Hepburn, Peter Morrell. An evaluation of possible EU air transport emissions trading scheme allocation methods. Energy Policy,2007
[12]A. Denny Ellerman. Are cap-and-trade programs more environmentally effective than conventional regulation? MIT CEEPR,2003
[13]Bohringer, Lange, Shaoyi Li. Emissions trading in China:A conceptual 'leapfrog' approach? Energy,2004
[14]Ellerman, A.D. and B.K. Buchner. The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme:Origins, Allocation, and Early Results. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy,2007
[15]Jochen Hauff. The Feasibility of Domestic CO2 Emissions Trading in Poland. UNEP,2000
[16]Montero, J.P. Marketable Pollution Permits with Uncertainty and Transaction Costs. Resource and Energy Economics,1998
[17]Haites, E. and T. Hussain. The Changing Climate for Emissions Trading in Canada. Review of the European Community and International Environmental Law,2000
[18]Jeffrey Frankel. Environmental Effects of International Trade. http://nrs. harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:4481652,2009
[19]Coase, Ronald. The Problem of Social Cost. Journal of Law and Economics,1960
[20]State and Trends of the Carbon Market. World Bank.2011.06
[21]Peter Cramton, Suzi Kerr. Tradable carbon permit auctions How and why to auction not grandfather. Energy Policy,2002
[22]Janet Peace, Timothy Juliani. The coming carbon market and its impact on the American economy. Policy and Society,2009
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