低碳经济背景下中国出口产业转型问题研究
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摘要
随着世界经济向低碳经济转变的趋势日益突显,许多国家开始反思本国的经济增长方式。一些发达国家正试图利用此次全球多重危机中的机遇,通过低碳经济创新形成新的竞争优势,并试图通过国际机制迫使其他国家减少对环境的破坏,这些对那些还在“高碳经济”发展道路上行进的发展中国家构成了新的挑战。
2006年中国温室气体排放总量超越美国跃居世界第一位,2009年中国温室气体排放总量仍然位居世界第一位,排放量高达72.2亿吨,占全球的百分比为19.12%。中国正处于工业化、城市化高速发展阶段,对能源的消耗还会逐渐加大,温室气体排放量也会不断增加,发展低碳经济之路无疑是中国处理好环境和经济增长问题面临的唯一选择。
从这一背景出发,本文选取了低碳经济这一主题,主要研究了在全球低碳经济发展趋势下,中国碳排放的现状以及发展低碳经济对中国出口产业转型的影响。本文分六章：
第一章是绪论。主要阐述了本文研究的国内外背景和意义,低碳经济的国内外研究综述,概括说明了本文的主要内容、研究方法、创新点及不足之处。
第二章为低碳经济及经济贸易影响。分别研究了低碳经济的内涵,碳税和碳关税及其经济效应,并阐述了低碳经济背景下贸易理论的新思考,低碳特征发展了比较优势理论和国家竞争优势理论,为整篇论文的研究打下了理论基础。
第三章主要是运用实证分析中国碳排放现状及影响因素。首先对中国碳排放水平的国际比较及产业分布情况做了简单说明,然后运用投入产出法分析了中国高碳产业出口隐含碳排放情况,为论文的下部分分析提供依据提供了依据,运用LMD因素分解法分析了影响人均碳排放的能源结构、能源效率和经济发展三个因素。
第四章主要研究国内外减排措施对中国出口产业转型的影响。国外减排措施的分析主要是基于第三章对高碳产业出口隐含碳排放的分析,以征收碳关税为例分析了国外低碳措施对中国出口贸易的可能影响,并分析《京都协议书》以及国内低碳措施的实施情况及其对出口贸易的影响。
第五章主要归纳了英国、德国、日本发展低碳经济的实践经验,并分析了这三个国家发展低碳经济经验对中国的启示。
第六章为实现中国出口产业转型的政策建议。
本文的基本观点是,中国是一个碳排放大国,近年来出口贸易隐含碳排放居高不下,国际贸易中诸如碳关税等贸易壁垒因此可能会削弱中国出口产业的国际竞争力,导致中国高碳产品出口比重下降,最终导致出口产业转型。出口产业向低碳产业发展,需要我们制定并完善国内减排制度,中国发展低碳经济之路任重而道远。
As the world economy turns to the low-carbon economy, many countries have begun to reflect their economy growth mode. The developed countries, trying to take advantage of this opportunity in the global multiple crises through a low-carbon economy innovation, form new competitive advantage, and they are trying to force other countries to limit damage of the environment through the international mechanism, which is a new challenge for those developing countries that are still in the rode of high-carbon economy.
In 2006, China's greenhouse-gas emissions surpassed US and ranked first in the world, in 2009, our greenhouse-gas emissions remained first in the world, taking up 19.12% of the global emissions as high as 7.22 billion tons. As we are in the high speed development stage of industrialization and urbanization, the energy consumption will increase gradually, and greenhouse gas emissions will continue to increase, so the low-carbon economy is undoubtedly the best way to deal with environmental and economic growth.
Under this background, this paper mainly studies the present situation of China's carbon emissions and the affect of low-carbon economy on China's export industry transformation in the trend of the global low-carbon economy development, and this article is divided into six chapters.
The first chapter is the part of "introduction", which mainly introduces the backgrounds and research of low-carbon economy at home and abroad, also describes the main content, the research method, innovations and deficiencies of this paper.
The second chapter describes the influence of low-carbon economy, and respectively introduces the concepts of the low-carbon economy, also concepts of the carbon tax and carbon tariffs and their economic effects, and also expounds the theories of comparative advantage and international competitiveness, laid a theoretical basis for the whole thesis research.
The third chapter analyzes the factors of our carbon emissions and situation of carbon emissions through empirical model, and describes international comparison of the China's carbon emissions levels and industrial distribution. Our present situation of the carbon emissions are mainly based on input and output analysis method that analyzes the situation of embodied emission of our high-carbon industry export, which provides basis for the following analysis. This paper uses Logarithmic mean weight Divisia method to analyze the three factors of energy structure, energy efficiency, economic development which affect on the carbon emissions per capita in China.
The forth chapter is about emissions reductions of the domestic and foreign on transformation of China's export industry. The analysis of foreign emissions reductions measures is largely based on the analysis of the high-carbon industry export embodied emissions of the fourth chapter, takes carbon tariffs as an example, and analyzes the influence on China's export trade, also introduces the Kyoto Protocol and domestic low carbon measures and their effects on export trade.
The fifth chapter mainly analysis the low-carbon economy experience of developed countries and their revelation to China, mainly introduces the practical experience of developing a low-carbon economy in Britain, Germany and Japan, and their revelation to China.
The sixth chapter is basically about the policies and suggestions of our low-carbon economy development.
The basic point about this paper is that China is a country with large carton emissions, and our export embodied emissions have remained high level in recent years. In international trade, the trade barriers such as carbon tariffs could weaken international competitiveness of export industries, or make exports of China's high carbon products down, which eventually make the export industry, transform to low-carbon industry. We need to set and perfect the system of our emissions reductions, and have heavy responsibilities in the rode of our low-carbon economy development.
2006年中国温室气体排放总量超越美国跃居世界第一位,2009年中国温室气体排放总量仍然位居世界第一位,排放量高达72.2亿吨,占全球的百分比为19.12%。中国正处于工业化、城市化高速发展阶段,对能源的消耗还会逐渐加大,温室气体排放量也会不断增加,发展低碳经济之路无疑是中国处理好环境和经济增长问题面临的唯一选择。
从这一背景出发,本文选取了低碳经济这一主题,主要研究了在全球低碳经济发展趋势下,中国碳排放的现状以及发展低碳经济对中国出口产业转型的影响。本文分六章：
第一章是绪论。主要阐述了本文研究的国内外背景和意义,低碳经济的国内外研究综述,概括说明了本文的主要内容、研究方法、创新点及不足之处。
第二章为低碳经济及经济贸易影响。分别研究了低碳经济的内涵,碳税和碳关税及其经济效应,并阐述了低碳经济背景下贸易理论的新思考,低碳特征发展了比较优势理论和国家竞争优势理论,为整篇论文的研究打下了理论基础。
第三章主要是运用实证分析中国碳排放现状及影响因素。首先对中国碳排放水平的国际比较及产业分布情况做了简单说明,然后运用投入产出法分析了中国高碳产业出口隐含碳排放情况,为论文的下部分分析提供依据提供了依据,运用LMD因素分解法分析了影响人均碳排放的能源结构、能源效率和经济发展三个因素。
第四章主要研究国内外减排措施对中国出口产业转型的影响。国外减排措施的分析主要是基于第三章对高碳产业出口隐含碳排放的分析,以征收碳关税为例分析了国外低碳措施对中国出口贸易的可能影响,并分析《京都协议书》以及国内低碳措施的实施情况及其对出口贸易的影响。
第五章主要归纳了英国、德国、日本发展低碳经济的实践经验,并分析了这三个国家发展低碳经济经验对中国的启示。
第六章为实现中国出口产业转型的政策建议。
本文的基本观点是,中国是一个碳排放大国,近年来出口贸易隐含碳排放居高不下,国际贸易中诸如碳关税等贸易壁垒因此可能会削弱中国出口产业的国际竞争力,导致中国高碳产品出口比重下降,最终导致出口产业转型。出口产业向低碳产业发展,需要我们制定并完善国内减排制度,中国发展低碳经济之路任重而道远。
As the world economy turns to the low-carbon economy, many countries have begun to reflect their economy growth mode. The developed countries, trying to take advantage of this opportunity in the global multiple crises through a low-carbon economy innovation, form new competitive advantage, and they are trying to force other countries to limit damage of the environment through the international mechanism, which is a new challenge for those developing countries that are still in the rode of high-carbon economy.
In 2006, China's greenhouse-gas emissions surpassed US and ranked first in the world, in 2009, our greenhouse-gas emissions remained first in the world, taking up 19.12% of the global emissions as high as 7.22 billion tons. As we are in the high speed development stage of industrialization and urbanization, the energy consumption will increase gradually, and greenhouse gas emissions will continue to increase, so the low-carbon economy is undoubtedly the best way to deal with environmental and economic growth.
Under this background, this paper mainly studies the present situation of China's carbon emissions and the affect of low-carbon economy on China's export industry transformation in the trend of the global low-carbon economy development, and this article is divided into six chapters.
The first chapter is the part of "introduction", which mainly introduces the backgrounds and research of low-carbon economy at home and abroad, also describes the main content, the research method, innovations and deficiencies of this paper.
The second chapter describes the influence of low-carbon economy, and respectively introduces the concepts of the low-carbon economy, also concepts of the carbon tax and carbon tariffs and their economic effects, and also expounds the theories of comparative advantage and international competitiveness, laid a theoretical basis for the whole thesis research.
The third chapter analyzes the factors of our carbon emissions and situation of carbon emissions through empirical model, and describes international comparison of the China's carbon emissions levels and industrial distribution. Our present situation of the carbon emissions are mainly based on input and output analysis method that analyzes the situation of embodied emission of our high-carbon industry export, which provides basis for the following analysis. This paper uses Logarithmic mean weight Divisia method to analyze the three factors of energy structure, energy efficiency, economic development which affect on the carbon emissions per capita in China.
The forth chapter is about emissions reductions of the domestic and foreign on transformation of China's export industry. The analysis of foreign emissions reductions measures is largely based on the analysis of the high-carbon industry export embodied emissions of the fourth chapter, takes carbon tariffs as an example, and analyzes the influence on China's export trade, also introduces the Kyoto Protocol and domestic low carbon measures and their effects on export trade.
The fifth chapter mainly analysis the low-carbon economy experience of developed countries and their revelation to China, mainly introduces the practical experience of developing a low-carbon economy in Britain, Germany and Japan, and their revelation to China.
The sixth chapter is basically about the policies and suggestions of our low-carbon economy development.
The basic point about this paper is that China is a country with large carton emissions, and our export embodied emissions have remained high level in recent years. In international trade, the trade barriers such as carbon tariffs could weaken international competitiveness of export industries, or make exports of China's high carbon products down, which eventually make the export industry, transform to low-carbon industry. We need to set and perfect the system of our emissions reductions, and have heavy responsibilities in the rode of our low-carbon economy development.
引文
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[30]赵青、朴永日、周升起.“京都议定书”正式生效对中国贸易的影响及对策.经济纵横,2005,(6)：第41页.
[31]郑春芳、赵亚平.“碳关税”对中国出口贸易的影响及对策[J].经济纵横,2011,(3)：49-52.
[32]中国气候变化国别研究组.中国气候变化国别研究[M].第1版.北京：清华大学出版社,2000.305-307.
[33]周宏春.世界碳交易市场的发展与启示[J].中国软科学,2009,(12)：39-48.
[34]周伟、米红.中国碳排放：国际比较与减排战略[J].资源科学2010,(8)：1572-1575.
[35]周晓唯、张金灿.中国碳交易市场发展路径分析[C].2010年(第十届)中国制度经济学年会论文集,2010,(66)：651-653.
[36]朱启荣、言英杰、蓝美丽.试析碳税与碳关税政策的局限性[J].山东财政学院学报(双月刊),2010,(4)：77-78.
[37]庄贵阳.中国发展低碳经济的困难与障碍分析[J].江西社会科学,2009,(7)：20-26.
[38]Brown M T, Herendeen R A.,1996, "Embodied energy analysis and energy analysis:comparative view", Ecological Economics, Vol.19(3), PP219-235.
[39]Dinda S.,2004, "Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis:A Survey", Ecological Economics, Vol.49(4), PP431-455.
[40]Excepted average annual CERs from registered projects by host party. June 2011. http://cdm.unfccc.int/Statistics/index.html.
[41]Johan A, Delphine F, Koen S.,2002, "A Shapley Decomposition of Carbon Emissions without Residuals", Energy Policy, Vol.30, PP727-736
[42]Odum H T,1983, Systems Ecology:An Introduction, New York:John&Wiley, US.
[43]Ugur Soytas, Ramazan Sari, Bradley T. Ewing.,2007, "Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States", EcologicalEconomics, Vol.62, PP482-489.
①周宏春.世界碳交易市场的发展与启示[J].中国软科学,2009,(12),39-48.
① Ugur Soytas, Ramazan Sari, Bradley T. Ewing.,2007, "Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States", EcologicalEconomics, Vol.62, PP482-489.
②李胜、陈晓春.低碳经济：内涵体系与政策创新[J].科技管理研究,2009,(10)：42-43.
①何建坤.中国自主减排目标与低碳发展之路[J].清华大学学报,2010,(25)：122-128.
②胡淙洋.低碳经济与中国发展[J].科学对社会的影响,2008,(10)：11-18.
③鲍健强.低碳经济：人类经济发展方式的新变革[J].中国工业经济,2008,(4)：153-160.
④马述忠、陈颖.进出口贸易对中国隐含碳排放量的影响：2000-2009[J].财贸经济,2009,(10)：82-88.
⑤郭印、王敏洁.国际低碳经济发展经验及对中国的启示[J].改革与战略,2009,(10)：176-179.
①朱启荣、言英杰、蓝美丽.试析碳税与碳关税政策的局限性[J].山东财政学院学报(双月刊),2010,(4)：77-78.
①尹希果、孙惠.碳关税征收对双边贸易的预期影响[J].国际经贸探索,2010,(10)：4-8.
①迈克尔·波特.国家竞争优势[M].第2版.北京：华夏出版社,2002.66-69. ① Dinda S.,2004, "Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis:A Survey", Ecological Economics, Vol.49(4), PP431-455.
② Brown M T, Herendeen R A.,1996, "Embodied energy analysis and emergy analysis: comparative view", Ecological Economics, Vol.19, PP219-235.
③ Odum H T.,1983, Sytems Ecology: An Introduction, New York: John&Wiley, US.
①参见齐晔、李惠民、徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2008,18(3)：8-12.
①樊晓.碳关税对中国经济的影响和应对策略分析[J].现代商贸工业,2010,(20)：133-134.
②沈可挺、李钢.碳关税对中国工业品出口的影响[J].财贸经济,2010,(1)：75-79.
①郑春芳、赵亚平.“碳关税”对中国出口贸易的影响及对策[J].经济纵横,2011,(3)：49-52.
①黄媛红、沈可挺.基于CGE模型的碳关税对中国工业品出口影响评估[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2009,(19)：203-205.
①赵青、朴永日、周升起.“京都议定书”正式生效对中国贸易的影响及对策.经济纵横,2005,(6)：第41页.
①周晓唯、张金灿.中国碳交易市场发展路径分析[C].2010年(第十届)中国制度经济学年会论文集,2010,(66)：651-653.
① Excpted average annual CERs from registered projects by host party. June 2011. http://cdm.unfccc.int/Statistics/index.html.
②王玉梅、潘绍明.金融危机背景下中国碳交易现状和趋势[J].经济理论与经济管理,2009,(11)：57-62.
①国家税务总局.关于取消部分商品出口退税的通知[EB/OL].http://www.chinatax.gov.cn/n8136506/n8136593/n8137537/n8138502/9747391.html 2010-06-22.
①马海涛、白彦锋.中国征收碳税的政策效应与税制设计[J].地方财政研究,2010,(9)：21-22.
①中国气候变化国别研究组.中国气候变化国别研究[M].第1版.北京：清华大学出版社,2000.305-307.
①Builing Britain's Future,2009, The UK Low Carbon Industrial Strategy, PP63-68.
①潘家华、陈迎、庄贵阳等.英国低碳发展的激励措施及其借鉴[J].中国经贸导刊,2006,(18)：51-52.
②李琼.英国发展低碳经济的经验[N],光明日报,2009-6-16(10).
③王飞、丰志勇、陈建.英国发展低碳经济的经验浅谈[J].生态经济,2010,(4)：49-51.
①陈志恒.日本低碳经济战略简析[J].日本学刊,2010,(4)：54-66.
②金乐琴、刘瑞.低碳经济与中国经济发展模式转型[J].经济问题探索,2009,(1)：84-87.
①王沈君、赵伟宁.借鉴和吸收日本发展低碳经济的经验[J].辽宁师专学报,2011,(6)：11-12.
②庄贵阳.中国发展低碳经济的困难与障碍分析[J].江西社会科学,2009,(7)：20-26.
①王军强.中国发展低碳贸易的必要性及对策研究[J].经济师,2010,(12),10-12.
①2050中国能源和碳排放研究课题组.2050中国能源和碳排放报告[M].第1版.北京：科学出版社,2009.425-444.
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[2]鲍健强.低碳经济：人类经济发展方式的新变革[J].中国工业经济,2008,(4)：153-160.
[3]陈志恒.日本低碳经济战略简析[J].日本学刊,2010,(4)：54-66.
[4]樊晓.碳关税对中国经济的影响和应对策略分析[J].现代商贸工业,2010,(20)：133-134.
[5]郭印、王敏洁.国际低碳经济发展经验及对中国的启示[J].改革与战略,2009,(10)：177-178.
[6]国家税务总局.关于取消部分商品出口退税的通知[EB/OL].http://www.chinatax.gov.cn/n8136506/n8136593/n8137537/n8138502/9747391. html,2010-06-22.
[7]何建坤.中国自主减排目标与低碳发展之路[J].清华大学学报,2010,(25)：122-128.
[8]胡淙洋.低碳经济与中国发展[J].科学对社会的影响,2008,(10)：11-18.
[9]黄媛红、沈可挺.基于CGE模型的碳关税对中国工业品出口影响评估[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2009,(19)：203-205.
[10]金乐琴、刘瑞.低碳经济与中国经济发展模式转型[J].经济问题探索,2009,(1)：84-87.
[11]李琼.英国发展低碳经济的经验[N],光明日报,2009-6-16(10).
[12]李胜、陈晓春.低碳经济：内涵体系与政策创新[J].科技管理研究,2009,(10)：42-43.
[13]马海涛、白彦锋.中国征收碳税的政策效应与税制设计[J].地方财政研究,2010,(9)：21-22.
[14]马述忠、陈颖.进出口贸易对中国隐含碳排放量的影响：2000-2009[J].财贸经济,2009,(10)：82-88.
[15]迈克尔·波特.国家竞争优势[M].第2版.北京：华夏出版社,2002.66-69.
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[18]齐晔、李惠民、徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2008,18(3)：8-12.
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[20]沈可挺、李钢.碳关税对中国工业品出口的影响[J].财贸经济,2010(1)：75-79.
[21]王飞、丰志勇、陈建.英国发展低碳经济的经验浅谈[J].生态经济,2010,(4)：49-51.
[22]王军强.中国发展低碳贸易的必要性及对策研究[J].经济师,2010,(12)：10-12.
[23]王沈君、赵伟宁.借鉴和吸收日本发展低碳经济的经验[J].辽宁师专学报,2011,(6)：11-12
[24]王永龙.中国低碳经济发展政策创新分析[J].经济学家,2010,(11)：15-16.
[25]王玉梅、潘绍明.金融危机背景下中国碳交易现状和趋势[J].经济理论与经济管理,2009,(11)：57-62.
[26]徐大丰.中国碳排放的结构分析[J].经济纵横,2010,(8)：76-78.
[27]王跃生、焦芳.低碳经济背景下中国对外贸易发展模式的转变[J].河北经贸大学学报,2010,(31)：30-33.
[28]徐国泉、刘则渊、姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析：1995-2004[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2006,(16)：158-161.
[29]尹希果、孙惠.碳关税征收对双边贸易的预期影响[J].国际经贸探索,2010,(10)：4-8.
[30]赵青、朴永日、周升起.“京都议定书”正式生效对中国贸易的影响及对策.经济纵横,2005,(6)：第41页.
[31]郑春芳、赵亚平.“碳关税”对中国出口贸易的影响及对策[J].经济纵横,2011,(3)：49-52.
[32]中国气候变化国别研究组.中国气候变化国别研究[M].第1版.北京：清华大学出版社,2000.305-307.
[33]周宏春.世界碳交易市场的发展与启示[J].中国软科学,2009,(12)：39-48.
[34]周伟、米红.中国碳排放：国际比较与减排战略[J].资源科学2010,(8)：1572-1575.
[35]周晓唯、张金灿.中国碳交易市场发展路径分析[C].2010年(第十届)中国制度经济学年会论文集,2010,(66)：651-653.
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[38]Brown M T, Herendeen R A.,1996, "Embodied energy analysis and energy analysis:comparative view", Ecological Economics, Vol.19(3), PP219-235.
[39]Dinda S.,2004, "Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis:A Survey", Ecological Economics, Vol.49(4), PP431-455.
[40]Excepted average annual CERs from registered projects by host party. June 2011. http://cdm.unfccc.int/Statistics/index.html.
[41]Johan A, Delphine F, Koen S.,2002, "A Shapley Decomposition of Carbon Emissions without Residuals", Energy Policy, Vol.30, PP727-736
[42]Odum H T,1983, Systems Ecology:An Introduction, New York:John&Wiley, US.
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