江西省碳排放影响因素的实证研究
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摘要
人类社会的前进一直处于一个不断向大自然攫取资源并输出环境压力的过程。为了生存和发展,人们不得不直面不可再生能源越来越稀缺,环境破坏日趋严重的事实。西方发达国家较早意识到这一问题,并在许多方面做出了卓有成效的举措,努力实现经济社会、资源和环境的和谐发展。中国自1978年实施改革开放政策之后,经济和社会都驶向了一条高速发展的轨道。然而在发展过程中,能源和环境问题并没有引起强烈的关注,经济增长模式主要是“高投入、高消耗、高排放、不协调、难循环、低效率”,30年的中国经济增长奇迹为此付出了巨大的能源和环境代价,由此引发的环境问题让中国也面临着诸多的国际压力。近年来,中国政府已注意到能源和环境在经济社会发展过程中的重要性。在2009年12月18日的哥本哈根气候大会上,温家宝总理做出郑重承诺,明确了到2020年单位GDP所产生的二氧化碳排放比2005年要下降40%—45%的减排目标。此减排目标已作为约束性指标被纳入国家的中长期发展规划。各地区也在陆续出台一些相关的减排措施以配合国家的长远发展规划。想要完成减排目标,低碳经济是必经之路。而如何实现低碳发展,最重要的就是要寻找出二氧化碳排放的驱动因素。本文正是从这个角度切入,选取1988-2010年的时间序列数据,建立起江西省碳排放的驱动方程,并逐一分析这些驱动因素,希冀能为江西省的低碳发展提供一些有益建议。
第一部分为绪论。首先阐述了研究的背景及意义。其次梳理相关研究领域的国内外文献,并对其做出了整体归纳分析。不可否认,在全球变暖的大背景下,如何做好二氧化碳的减排以及发展低碳经济已成为政府和学者的共识。在已有的文献中,既有侧重于政策效果的理论分析,也有将研究重点放在驱动因素上的实证研究。关于江西省的文献多为从政策角度分析江西发展低碳经济的路径选择以及相关积极意义,并没有对影响碳排放的因素有更加深入地涉及。因此本文选取人均收入、工业产值、出口以及外商直接投资等四个影响变量与因变量碳排放量构成方程,运用计量方法来实证了解它们之间的相关关系。最后给出了本文了研究思路以及可能存在的创新之处。
第二部分主要介绍了相关的理论基础。自生命伊始,人类便和地球万物紧密联系在一起。地球上的丰富资源和适宜居住的自然环境给人类提供了十分适合生存和发展的空间。不过这并不是一个无节制的单向索取资源和施压于环境的过程。因为大部分资源并不是可以无限使用的,而且经济和社会的发展需要良好的环境。人类也在努力寻求人类进步、资源利用以及环境保护三者的相互协调与和谐发展。于是资源、环境经济学理论应运而生,可持续发展理论也随之得到广泛认可。这是本文需要借鉴的两个理论。关于外商直接投资的环境库兹涅兹曲线理论是本文需要借鉴的另外一个重要理论。
第三部分描述了江西省经济发展、能源消费以及碳排放的现状。通过查询相关统计年鉴和测算相关统计指标,对江西省自1988年以来的产业结构、能源消费结构以及碳排放量进行了整体概括分析。单一省份的现状分析并不足以突出问题所在,所以在此基础上,本文依据经济发展状况、能源利用情况和地域因素,选取北京、上海、湖北和山西等四个具有代表性的省市作为比较对象,对它们的产业结构、能源消费弹性系数以及碳排放强度等指标做出了较为具体的统计分析。
第四部分是实证部分。基于1988-2010年的时间序列数据,本文借鉴已有的研究文献经验并结合江西省的经济发展实际,选取了三个影响碳排放的自变量,应用加权最小二乘法进行回归分析。结果发现存在严重的序列相关性,于是采用向量自回归、脉冲响应和方差分解等方法进行了更进一步地分析。
第五部分是研究结论与展望。针对第四部分的实证结果,本文提出了巩固第二产业发展成果,积极发展第三产业,调整出口结构以及强调引进外资质量等政策建议。同时也指出了本文的不足之处,为未来可能进行的研究提出了展望。
The development of human society has been in a ceaseless process of taking the nature resources and outputting pressure on the environment. In order to survive and development, people have to confront the fact that non-renewable energy becomes more and more scarce and the environment destruction is increasingly serious. The western developed countries are early consciousness of this problem, and have made effective measures in many ways to realize harmonious development among the economic and social, resources and environment. Chinese economy and society are headed a high-speed development track after implementing the policy of reform and open from1978. However, energy and environmental problems have not been focused strongly in the process of development, economic growth pattern mainly is "high investment, high consumption and high emissions, not harmonious, difficult circulation, low efficiency",30years of China's economic growth miracle have paid a huge energy and environmental costs, China is facing with much international pressure for the environmental problems. In recent years, the Chinese government is paying attention to the importance of energy and environment in the economic and social development process, In the December18,2009in Copenhagen climate of session. Prime Minister Wen made the promise that China will achieve the emissions reduction targets of making the unit of GDP in2020to the carbon dioxide produced emissions fall by40%-45%than in2005. The emission reduction goal has already been incorporated in the state's long-term development as binding index. The regions also have issued some emission reduction measures to match the long term development plan of the country. A low carbon economy is the only road to complete the emission reduction goals. And how to achieve low carbon development, the most important is to find out the drivers of carbon dioxide emissions. From this perspective, this article has selected the time series data from1988to2010and has builded up a driver equation of carbon emissions for Jiangxi province, then has analyzed these driving factors one by one, and wishes all these jobs can provide some useful suggestions for low carbon development of Jiangxi province.
The first part is the introduction. First the part has elaborated the background and meanings of the research. Second the part has combed related literatures in this field at home and abroad, and has made whole inductive analysis. To be sure, in the background of global warming, how to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions and develop the low carbon economy has become the consensus of the government and scholars. In the light of the literatures, there are not only the theoretical analysises focused on the policy effect, but also the empirical researches focused on the driving factors. The literatures about Jiangxi province have put much attention on the path choice to develop the low carbon economy for Jiangxi from the perspective of policy analysis, but there is no further research on the affect factors of carbon emissions. So this article has selected the per capita income, industrial output, export and foreign direct investment as four influence variables and dependent variable carbon emissions to constitute a equation, and has used measuring methods to understand the relationship among them. At last this paper has given the thoughts and the existence of possible innovative points.
The second part has introduced the related theoretical basis. Humans and all the earth are closely linked since their own life began. Abundant natural resources and suitable living environment of the earth provides very suitable survival and developing space for human nature. But this is the process which is not a one-way of spreading for resources and putting pressure on the environment. Because most of the resources are not unlimited, and the development of economy and society need good environment. Humans also seek to coordination and harmonious development among human progress, the resources use and environmental protection. So resources environment economics theory has been produced at the historic moment. The sustainable development theory is then widely recognized. This is the need for the two theories. Environmental Kuznets Curve theory about Foreign Direct Investment is another important theory which this article will use for reference.
The third part has described the present situation of the economic development, energy consumption and carbon emissions of Jiangxi province. The paper has made the overall summary analysis on the industrial structure, consumption structure of energy and carbon emissions of Jiangxi province since1988by inquiring the related statistical yearbooks and measuring the related statistical indexes. The analysis on current situation of a single province is not enough to highlight the problem, so on this basis, this paper has selected four representative provinces:Beijing, Shanghai, Shanxi, Hubei provinces or cities as comparative objects based on economic development, energy use condition and regional factors, then has made more specific statistical analysis on their industrial structure, energy consumption elasticity coefficient and carbon intensity index.
The fourth part is the empirical part. Based on the time series data from1988to2010, three independent variables which maybe influence carbon emissions have been selected with the help of the existing research literature and by combining the experience of Jiangxi economic development reality, then the weighted least squares regression has been applied to analyse the problem. But the results showed that there is serious serial correlation, so the vector regression, pulse and variance decomposition method have been used for the further analysis.
The fifth part is research conclusion and prospect. This paper has put forward policy suggestions of consolidating the second industry achievements, developing the third industry positively, adjusting the export structure, emphasizing the quality of foreign capital to the empirical results of the fourth part. And it has also pointed out the shortcomings and future research which may be put forward for this article.
第一部分为绪论。首先阐述了研究的背景及意义。其次梳理相关研究领域的国内外文献,并对其做出了整体归纳分析。不可否认,在全球变暖的大背景下,如何做好二氧化碳的减排以及发展低碳经济已成为政府和学者的共识。在已有的文献中,既有侧重于政策效果的理论分析,也有将研究重点放在驱动因素上的实证研究。关于江西省的文献多为从政策角度分析江西发展低碳经济的路径选择以及相关积极意义,并没有对影响碳排放的因素有更加深入地涉及。因此本文选取人均收入、工业产值、出口以及外商直接投资等四个影响变量与因变量碳排放量构成方程,运用计量方法来实证了解它们之间的相关关系。最后给出了本文了研究思路以及可能存在的创新之处。
第二部分主要介绍了相关的理论基础。自生命伊始,人类便和地球万物紧密联系在一起。地球上的丰富资源和适宜居住的自然环境给人类提供了十分适合生存和发展的空间。不过这并不是一个无节制的单向索取资源和施压于环境的过程。因为大部分资源并不是可以无限使用的,而且经济和社会的发展需要良好的环境。人类也在努力寻求人类进步、资源利用以及环境保护三者的相互协调与和谐发展。于是资源、环境经济学理论应运而生,可持续发展理论也随之得到广泛认可。这是本文需要借鉴的两个理论。关于外商直接投资的环境库兹涅兹曲线理论是本文需要借鉴的另外一个重要理论。
第三部分描述了江西省经济发展、能源消费以及碳排放的现状。通过查询相关统计年鉴和测算相关统计指标,对江西省自1988年以来的产业结构、能源消费结构以及碳排放量进行了整体概括分析。单一省份的现状分析并不足以突出问题所在,所以在此基础上,本文依据经济发展状况、能源利用情况和地域因素,选取北京、上海、湖北和山西等四个具有代表性的省市作为比较对象,对它们的产业结构、能源消费弹性系数以及碳排放强度等指标做出了较为具体的统计分析。
第四部分是实证部分。基于1988-2010年的时间序列数据,本文借鉴已有的研究文献经验并结合江西省的经济发展实际,选取了三个影响碳排放的自变量,应用加权最小二乘法进行回归分析。结果发现存在严重的序列相关性,于是采用向量自回归、脉冲响应和方差分解等方法进行了更进一步地分析。
第五部分是研究结论与展望。针对第四部分的实证结果,本文提出了巩固第二产业发展成果,积极发展第三产业,调整出口结构以及强调引进外资质量等政策建议。同时也指出了本文的不足之处,为未来可能进行的研究提出了展望。
The development of human society has been in a ceaseless process of taking the nature resources and outputting pressure on the environment. In order to survive and development, people have to confront the fact that non-renewable energy becomes more and more scarce and the environment destruction is increasingly serious. The western developed countries are early consciousness of this problem, and have made effective measures in many ways to realize harmonious development among the economic and social, resources and environment. Chinese economy and society are headed a high-speed development track after implementing the policy of reform and open from1978. However, energy and environmental problems have not been focused strongly in the process of development, economic growth pattern mainly is "high investment, high consumption and high emissions, not harmonious, difficult circulation, low efficiency",30years of China's economic growth miracle have paid a huge energy and environmental costs, China is facing with much international pressure for the environmental problems. In recent years, the Chinese government is paying attention to the importance of energy and environment in the economic and social development process, In the December18,2009in Copenhagen climate of session. Prime Minister Wen made the promise that China will achieve the emissions reduction targets of making the unit of GDP in2020to the carbon dioxide produced emissions fall by40%-45%than in2005. The emission reduction goal has already been incorporated in the state's long-term development as binding index. The regions also have issued some emission reduction measures to match the long term development plan of the country. A low carbon economy is the only road to complete the emission reduction goals. And how to achieve low carbon development, the most important is to find out the drivers of carbon dioxide emissions. From this perspective, this article has selected the time series data from1988to2010and has builded up a driver equation of carbon emissions for Jiangxi province, then has analyzed these driving factors one by one, and wishes all these jobs can provide some useful suggestions for low carbon development of Jiangxi province.
The first part is the introduction. First the part has elaborated the background and meanings of the research. Second the part has combed related literatures in this field at home and abroad, and has made whole inductive analysis. To be sure, in the background of global warming, how to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions and develop the low carbon economy has become the consensus of the government and scholars. In the light of the literatures, there are not only the theoretical analysises focused on the policy effect, but also the empirical researches focused on the driving factors. The literatures about Jiangxi province have put much attention on the path choice to develop the low carbon economy for Jiangxi from the perspective of policy analysis, but there is no further research on the affect factors of carbon emissions. So this article has selected the per capita income, industrial output, export and foreign direct investment as four influence variables and dependent variable carbon emissions to constitute a equation, and has used measuring methods to understand the relationship among them. At last this paper has given the thoughts and the existence of possible innovative points.
The second part has introduced the related theoretical basis. Humans and all the earth are closely linked since their own life began. Abundant natural resources and suitable living environment of the earth provides very suitable survival and developing space for human nature. But this is the process which is not a one-way of spreading for resources and putting pressure on the environment. Because most of the resources are not unlimited, and the development of economy and society need good environment. Humans also seek to coordination and harmonious development among human progress, the resources use and environmental protection. So resources environment economics theory has been produced at the historic moment. The sustainable development theory is then widely recognized. This is the need for the two theories. Environmental Kuznets Curve theory about Foreign Direct Investment is another important theory which this article will use for reference.
The third part has described the present situation of the economic development, energy consumption and carbon emissions of Jiangxi province. The paper has made the overall summary analysis on the industrial structure, consumption structure of energy and carbon emissions of Jiangxi province since1988by inquiring the related statistical yearbooks and measuring the related statistical indexes. The analysis on current situation of a single province is not enough to highlight the problem, so on this basis, this paper has selected four representative provinces:Beijing, Shanghai, Shanxi, Hubei provinces or cities as comparative objects based on economic development, energy use condition and regional factors, then has made more specific statistical analysis on their industrial structure, energy consumption elasticity coefficient and carbon intensity index.
The fourth part is the empirical part. Based on the time series data from1988to2010, three independent variables which maybe influence carbon emissions have been selected with the help of the existing research literature and by combining the experience of Jiangxi economic development reality, then the weighted least squares regression has been applied to analyse the problem. But the results showed that there is serious serial correlation, so the vector regression, pulse and variance decomposition method have been used for the further analysis.
The fifth part is research conclusion and prospect. This paper has put forward policy suggestions of consolidating the second industry achievements, developing the third industry positively, adjusting the export structure, emphasizing the quality of foreign capital to the empirical results of the fourth part. And it has also pointed out the shortcomings and future research which may be put forward for this article.
引文
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