基于情景分析的中国有色金属产业碳排放问题研究
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摘要
在全球温度升高的压力下,二氧化碳排放已成为当今世界重点关注的主题,从二氧化碳排放总量来看,中国是世界上最严重的国家之一。而中国有色金属产业是一个高耗能、重污染、资源利用低的产业,有色金属产业的能源使用效率远远低于工业部门的平均效率。因此,本文探究从现在到2020年,既能保证有色金属产业健康发展,又能够为有色金属产业节能减排做出贡献的中国有色金属产业的总体发展模式。对有色金属产业低碳发展乃至中国经济的可持续发展都具有重要的现实意义。
本文基于情景分析法研究了中国有色金属产业碳排放问题。在情景指标的选取中分别选取了中国国内生产总值增长速度和二氧化碳排放增长速度、有色金属产业产出和二氧化碳排放增长速度等指标。在情景指标选取过程中,讨论了国家之间二氧化碳排放的衡量方法,对二氧化碳排放权分配使用传统指标进行对比,基于传统的衡量指标所存在的问题,根据国家的自主发展和外部性影响原理,提出外部性指标对中国二氧化碳排放进行衡量,并分析了相关国家的二氧化碳排放情况。在其他指标的选取中,除了使用历史的平均增长速度以及国家和有色金属产业规划的增长速度外,还使用ARIMA模型对中国GDP增长速度进行预测。综合以上指标,本文对中国有色金属产业未来二氧化碳排放总量进行了情景指标的设定,并对中国有色金属产业2020年的二氧化碳排放进行了情景分析,得出了七种有色金属产业二氧化碳的排放情景。通过分析,选取了到2020年既满足有色金属产业健康发展又能够有效减少碳排放的具体发展模式,即,有色金属产业的产出增长率保持在较低的速度7.55%,该产业到2020年单位产值二氧化碳排放减少40%至45%,2020年该产业二氧化碳排放为61646-67175万吨。同时,本文对中国有色金属产业的能源使用情况进行LMDI能源分解分析,结果显示,产出效应对该产业碳排放影响最大,其次是能源使用效率,最后是产业结构。
本文通过对有色金属产业碳排放情景分析和能源使用情况的分解分析,进一步论证了中国有色金属产业节能减排的潜力以及中国有色金属产业在所选情景下进行节能减排的可行性,进而提出了有针对性的有色金属产业低碳发展的建议。
Under the pressure of rise in global temperatures, carbon dioxide emission has become one of the themes the world most focus on. China has been one of the most carbon dioxide emissions countries. Chinese nonferrous industry is high in energy use and pollution, and low in resources use. This paper probe into the developing mode of the Chinese nonferrous industry which is not only ensure the healthy development of the industry but also contribute to energy saving and emission reduction. It has important realistic significance to give research in low carbon mode of the nonferrous industry.
This paper analyzed the carbon emissions of the China nonferrous metal industry based on the scenario analysis. In the selection of the scenario index, this paper choose the following factors, the growth of the China GDP and the Carbon dioxide emissions, the growth of the nonferrous industry output and Carbon dioxide emissions. This paper analyzed the distribution of carbon dioxide emissions allocation by using traditional index. Because of the defects of the traditional index, this paper put forward a new index base on the externalities and independent development. And then the paper analyzed the carbon dioxide emissions of countries. We also use ARIMA mode to forecast the growth of the GDP. This paper set scenario by using the above index and then had scenario analysis to the Carbon dioxide emissions of the China nonferrous industry in the year of2020. By the analysis, this paper got the developing mode from seven scenarios. The growths of output speed in the china nonferrous industry keep7.55percents. The carbon dioxide emission of the industry in2020is61646to67175million tons. The carbon dioxide emissions per output in2020reduce40to45percents to the year2005. This paper analyzed energy consumption of the nonferrous industry by using logarithmic mean decomposition index, the results showed that the influence of the output is the most serious, and then the energy efficiency, finally the industrial structure.
This paper had analysis of the carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption of the nonferrous industry. The paper Demonstrate the energy conservation and emission reduction and the feasibility of the emissions reducing to the industry. Finally, the paper gets conclusions and the suggestions to low carbon development of the nonferrous industry.
本文基于情景分析法研究了中国有色金属产业碳排放问题。在情景指标的选取中分别选取了中国国内生产总值增长速度和二氧化碳排放增长速度、有色金属产业产出和二氧化碳排放增长速度等指标。在情景指标选取过程中,讨论了国家之间二氧化碳排放的衡量方法,对二氧化碳排放权分配使用传统指标进行对比,基于传统的衡量指标所存在的问题,根据国家的自主发展和外部性影响原理,提出外部性指标对中国二氧化碳排放进行衡量,并分析了相关国家的二氧化碳排放情况。在其他指标的选取中,除了使用历史的平均增长速度以及国家和有色金属产业规划的增长速度外,还使用ARIMA模型对中国GDP增长速度进行预测。综合以上指标,本文对中国有色金属产业未来二氧化碳排放总量进行了情景指标的设定,并对中国有色金属产业2020年的二氧化碳排放进行了情景分析,得出了七种有色金属产业二氧化碳的排放情景。通过分析,选取了到2020年既满足有色金属产业健康发展又能够有效减少碳排放的具体发展模式,即,有色金属产业的产出增长率保持在较低的速度7.55%,该产业到2020年单位产值二氧化碳排放减少40%至45%,2020年该产业二氧化碳排放为61646-67175万吨。同时,本文对中国有色金属产业的能源使用情况进行LMDI能源分解分析,结果显示,产出效应对该产业碳排放影响最大,其次是能源使用效率,最后是产业结构。
本文通过对有色金属产业碳排放情景分析和能源使用情况的分解分析,进一步论证了中国有色金属产业节能减排的潜力以及中国有色金属产业在所选情景下进行节能减排的可行性,进而提出了有针对性的有色金属产业低碳发展的建议。
Under the pressure of rise in global temperatures, carbon dioxide emission has become one of the themes the world most focus on. China has been one of the most carbon dioxide emissions countries. Chinese nonferrous industry is high in energy use and pollution, and low in resources use. This paper probe into the developing mode of the Chinese nonferrous industry which is not only ensure the healthy development of the industry but also contribute to energy saving and emission reduction. It has important realistic significance to give research in low carbon mode of the nonferrous industry.
This paper analyzed the carbon emissions of the China nonferrous metal industry based on the scenario analysis. In the selection of the scenario index, this paper choose the following factors, the growth of the China GDP and the Carbon dioxide emissions, the growth of the nonferrous industry output and Carbon dioxide emissions. This paper analyzed the distribution of carbon dioxide emissions allocation by using traditional index. Because of the defects of the traditional index, this paper put forward a new index base on the externalities and independent development. And then the paper analyzed the carbon dioxide emissions of countries. We also use ARIMA mode to forecast the growth of the GDP. This paper set scenario by using the above index and then had scenario analysis to the Carbon dioxide emissions of the China nonferrous industry in the year of2020. By the analysis, this paper got the developing mode from seven scenarios. The growths of output speed in the china nonferrous industry keep7.55percents. The carbon dioxide emission of the industry in2020is61646to67175million tons. The carbon dioxide emissions per output in2020reduce40to45percents to the year2005. This paper analyzed energy consumption of the nonferrous industry by using logarithmic mean decomposition index, the results showed that the influence of the output is the most serious, and then the energy efficiency, finally the industrial structure.
This paper had analysis of the carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption of the nonferrous industry. The paper Demonstrate the energy conservation and emission reduction and the feasibility of the emissions reducing to the industry. Finally, the paper gets conclusions and the suggestions to low carbon development of the nonferrous industry.
引文
[1]岳珍,赖茂生.国外“情景分析”方法的进展[J].情报杂志.2006：59-60
[2]Richard Silberglitt, Anders Hove, Peter Shulman. Analysis of US energy scenarios:Meta-scenarios, pathways, and policy implications[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change.2003,70:297～315
[3]张向龙,王俊,杨新军,孙晶.情景分析及其在生态系统研究中的应用[J].生态学杂志.2008,27,10：1763-1770
[4]张学才,郭瑞雪.情景分析方法综述[J].理论月刊.2005,8：125-126
[5]付加锋,刘小敏.基于情景分析法的中国低碳经济研究框架与问题探索[J].资源科学.2010,32,2：205-210
[6]Keywan Riahi, Arnulf Grubler, Nebojsa Nakicenovic. Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change.2007,74:887～935
[7]Paolo Agnoluccia, Paul Ekinsa, Giorgia Iacopinia, Kevin Andersonb, Alice Bowsb, Sarah Manderb, Simon Shackleyb. Different scenarios for achieving radical reduction in carbon emissions:A decomposition analysis[J]. Ecological Economics.2009,68:1652～1666
[8]Tao Wang, Jim Watson. Energy and climate scenarios for China: Some considerations.
[9]张斌.2020年我国能源电力消费及碳排放强度情景分析[J].能源与环境.2009,31,3：28-32
[10]张颖,王灿,王克,陈吉宁.基于LEAP的中国电力产业CO2排放情景分析[J].清华大学学报.2007,47,3：365-368
[11]朱跃中.未来中国交通运输部门能源发展与碳排放情景分析[J].中国工业经济.2001,12：30-35
[12]韦保仁,八木田浩史.中国钢铁生产量及其能源需求和CO2排放量情景分析[J].冶金能源.2005,6：3-6
[13]佟贺丰,崔源声,屈慰双,刘娅.基于系统动力学的我国水泥产业CO2排放情景分析[J].2010,3：40-50
[14]何林,袁建华,许屹,姜涛.未来我国人口、经济、资源、环境与可持续发展的情景分析[J].系统工程理论与实践.2002,7：131-133
[15]王倩倩,黄贤金,陈志刚.基于环境负荷模型的中国碳排放情景分析[J].生态经济.2009.1：53-54
[16]于红霞.情景分析在港口发展战略中的应用研究(硕士学位论文)[D].2004.天津：天津大学
[17]国家发改委能源研究所《中国可持续能源发展暨碳排放分析》课题组.2020年中国可持续发展能源情景分析[J].节能与环保.2003,6：20-23
[18]王冰妍,陈长虹,黄成,赵静,戴懿.低碳发展下的大气污染物和CO2排放情景分析—上海案例研究[J].能源研究与信息.2004,20,3：137-145
[19]Miriam Fischlein, Timothy M. Smith, Elizabeth J. Wilson. Carbon emissions and management scenarios for consumer-owned utilities[J]. Environmental science and policy.2009,12:778～790
[20]Koen Smekens, Bob vander Zwaan. Atmospheric and geological CO2 damage costs in energy scenarios[J]. Environmental science and policy.2006,9:217～227
[21]Marten Bryngelsson, Anders Hansson. Energy policy on shaky ground? A study of CCS-scenarios[J]. Energy Procedia. 2009, 1: 4673～4680
[22]Ferhat Yanvuz, Tom van Tilburg, Petra David, Mark Spruijt, Ton Wildenborg. Second generation CO2 FEP analysis CASSIF carbon storage scenarios identification framework [J]. Energy Procedia.2009,1:2479～2485
[23]Gary Shu, Mort D. Webster, Howard J. Herzog. Scenario analysis of carbon capture and sequestration generation dispatch in the western U.S. electricity system[J]. Energy Procedia.2009,1:4119～4126
[24]Bert J.M. de Vries, Arthur C. Petersen. METHODS Conceptualizing sustainable development
[25]Neil Strachan, Ramachandran Kannan. Hybrid modelling of long-term carbon reduction scenarios for the UK[J]. Energy Economics. 2008,30:2,947～2963
[26]Ramachandran Kannan, Neil Strachan. Modelling the UK residential energy sector under long-term decarbonisation scenarios:Comparison between energy systems and sectoral modelling approaches[J]. Applied Energy 2009,86:416～428
[27]Mike Hulme, Suraje Dessai. Negotiating future climates for public policy:a critical assessment of the development of climate scenarios for the UK[J]. Environmental science and policy.2008,2:54～57
[28]Evangelos Tzimas, Aliki Georgakaki, Stathis Peteves. Reducing CO2 emissions from the European power generation sector-Scenarios to 2050[J]. Energy Procedia.2009, 1:4007～4013
[29]曾忠禄,张冬梅.不确定环境下解读未来的方法：情景分析法[J].情报杂志.2005,5：14-16
[30]Theo J.B.M. Postmaa, Franz Liebl. How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change .2005,72:161～173
[31]高振宇,王益.我国生产用能源消费变动的分解分析[J].统计研究,2007,24(3)：52-57
[32]环境保护部环境规划院,国家信息中心.2009——2020年中国节能减排重点产业环境经济形势分析与预测[M].北京：中国环境科学出版社,2009
[33]魏一鸣,刘兰翠,范英,吴刚.中国能源报告(2008)：碳排放研究[M].北京：科学出版社,2008
[34]中国科学院可持续发展战略研究组.2010中国可持续发展战略报告：绿色发展与创新[M].北京：科学出版社,2010
[35]宁平,易红宏,周连碧.有色金属工业大气污染控制[M].北京：中国环境科学出版社,2007
[36]国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所课题组.中国2050年低碳发展之路：能源需求暨碳排放情景分析[M].北京：科学出版社,2009
[2]Richard Silberglitt, Anders Hove, Peter Shulman. Analysis of US energy scenarios:Meta-scenarios, pathways, and policy implications[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change.2003,70:297～315
[3]张向龙,王俊,杨新军,孙晶.情景分析及其在生态系统研究中的应用[J].生态学杂志.2008,27,10：1763-1770
[4]张学才,郭瑞雪.情景分析方法综述[J].理论月刊.2005,8：125-126
[5]付加锋,刘小敏.基于情景分析法的中国低碳经济研究框架与问题探索[J].资源科学.2010,32,2：205-210
[6]Keywan Riahi, Arnulf Grubler, Nebojsa Nakicenovic. Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change.2007,74:887～935
[7]Paolo Agnoluccia, Paul Ekinsa, Giorgia Iacopinia, Kevin Andersonb, Alice Bowsb, Sarah Manderb, Simon Shackleyb. Different scenarios for achieving radical reduction in carbon emissions:A decomposition analysis[J]. Ecological Economics.2009,68:1652～1666
[8]Tao Wang, Jim Watson. Energy and climate scenarios for China: Some considerations.
[9]张斌.2020年我国能源电力消费及碳排放强度情景分析[J].能源与环境.2009,31,3：28-32
[10]张颖,王灿,王克,陈吉宁.基于LEAP的中国电力产业CO2排放情景分析[J].清华大学学报.2007,47,3：365-368
[11]朱跃中.未来中国交通运输部门能源发展与碳排放情景分析[J].中国工业经济.2001,12：30-35
[12]韦保仁,八木田浩史.中国钢铁生产量及其能源需求和CO2排放量情景分析[J].冶金能源.2005,6：3-6
[13]佟贺丰,崔源声,屈慰双,刘娅.基于系统动力学的我国水泥产业CO2排放情景分析[J].2010,3：40-50
[14]何林,袁建华,许屹,姜涛.未来我国人口、经济、资源、环境与可持续发展的情景分析[J].系统工程理论与实践.2002,7：131-133
[15]王倩倩,黄贤金,陈志刚.基于环境负荷模型的中国碳排放情景分析[J].生态经济.2009.1：53-54
[16]于红霞.情景分析在港口发展战略中的应用研究(硕士学位论文)[D].2004.天津：天津大学
[17]国家发改委能源研究所《中国可持续能源发展暨碳排放分析》课题组.2020年中国可持续发展能源情景分析[J].节能与环保.2003,6：20-23
[18]王冰妍,陈长虹,黄成,赵静,戴懿.低碳发展下的大气污染物和CO2排放情景分析—上海案例研究[J].能源研究与信息.2004,20,3：137-145
[19]Miriam Fischlein, Timothy M. Smith, Elizabeth J. Wilson. Carbon emissions and management scenarios for consumer-owned utilities[J]. Environmental science and policy.2009,12:778～790
[20]Koen Smekens, Bob vander Zwaan. Atmospheric and geological CO2 damage costs in energy scenarios[J]. Environmental science and policy.2006,9:217～227
[21]Marten Bryngelsson, Anders Hansson. Energy policy on shaky ground? A study of CCS-scenarios[J]. Energy Procedia. 2009, 1: 4673～4680
[22]Ferhat Yanvuz, Tom van Tilburg, Petra David, Mark Spruijt, Ton Wildenborg. Second generation CO2 FEP analysis CASSIF carbon storage scenarios identification framework [J]. Energy Procedia.2009,1:2479～2485
[23]Gary Shu, Mort D. Webster, Howard J. Herzog. Scenario analysis of carbon capture and sequestration generation dispatch in the western U.S. electricity system[J]. Energy Procedia.2009,1:4119～4126
[24]Bert J.M. de Vries, Arthur C. Petersen. METHODS Conceptualizing sustainable development
[25]Neil Strachan, Ramachandran Kannan. Hybrid modelling of long-term carbon reduction scenarios for the UK[J]. Energy Economics. 2008,30:2,947～2963
[26]Ramachandran Kannan, Neil Strachan. Modelling the UK residential energy sector under long-term decarbonisation scenarios:Comparison between energy systems and sectoral modelling approaches[J]. Applied Energy 2009,86:416～428
[27]Mike Hulme, Suraje Dessai. Negotiating future climates for public policy:a critical assessment of the development of climate scenarios for the UK[J]. Environmental science and policy.2008,2:54～57
[28]Evangelos Tzimas, Aliki Georgakaki, Stathis Peteves. Reducing CO2 emissions from the European power generation sector-Scenarios to 2050[J]. Energy Procedia.2009, 1:4007～4013
[29]曾忠禄,张冬梅.不确定环境下解读未来的方法：情景分析法[J].情报杂志.2005,5：14-16
[30]Theo J.B.M. Postmaa, Franz Liebl. How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change .2005,72:161～173
[31]高振宇,王益.我国生产用能源消费变动的分解分析[J].统计研究,2007,24(3)：52-57
[32]环境保护部环境规划院,国家信息中心.2009——2020年中国节能减排重点产业环境经济形势分析与预测[M].北京：中国环境科学出版社,2009
[33]魏一鸣,刘兰翠,范英,吴刚.中国能源报告(2008)：碳排放研究[M].北京：科学出版社,2008
[34]中国科学院可持续发展战略研究组.2010中国可持续发展战略报告：绿色发展与创新[M].北京：科学出版社,2010
[35]宁平,易红宏,周连碧.有色金属工业大气污染控制[M].北京：中国环境科学出版社,2007
[36]国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所课题组.中国2050年低碳发展之路：能源需求暨碳排放情景分析[M].北京：科学出版社,2009