低碳交通的经济学分析
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摘要
交通部门碳排放的严峻形势,已经引起了世界各国的关注。随着工业化、城镇化进程的推进,中国交通部门二氧化碳排放将呈现出“跳跃式”增长的趋势。交通部门低碳化转型已成为一项现实而紧迫的问题。
然而交通低碳化转型之前,首先必须判定中国交通碳排放类型,这直接决定了交通发展的方向。其次,阶段性发展特征对于中国交通碳排放的影响机制还待于探讨。再者,高碳交通向低碳交通转型的机理还有待于研究。最后,在区域协调发展的背景下,交通低碳化的转型还必须与阶段化发展相匹配。因此,深入开展低碳交通研究对于中国可持续发展具有重要的现实和理论意义。
本文运用比较分析法、模型分析法、计量分析法等,研究了中国交通部门低碳化转型的问题。主要回答了中国交通碳排放类型、阶段性发展特征对于中国交通碳排放的影响机制、交通低碳化转型的机理机制、基于低碳理念的区域交通模式等理论性问题。通过低碳交通研究,得出以下结论：(1)中国交通碳排放属于高碳排放。通过与发达国家的横向比较,可发现中国交通部门碳排放效率处于较低水平。(2)阶段性发展特征对于交通碳排放影响显著。产业结构的调整有助于交通碳减排,而城镇化的进程促进了交通碳排放。(3)交通结构优化、紧凑型城镇化模式、经济结构调整等有助于高碳交通的低碳化转型。其中交通需求侧的税收、补贴等财税手段是主要的内生调节变量,经济结构下的技术升级、紧凑型城镇化模式创建、制度的低碳化供给等是主要的外生调节变量。(4)构建了基于低碳理念的四种区域交通模式：长三角模式、珠三角模式、渤海湾模式、中西部模式。(5)提出了交通基础设施低碳化供给战略、制度低碳化供给战略、技术低碳化供给战略、产业结构的低碳化引导战略、差异化的低碳区域交通模式构建战略等对策建议。
本文创新点是判定了中国交通部门碳排放类型、构建了中国交通部门碳排放增长的驱动因素分析模型、剖析了高碳交通向低碳交通转型的机理机制、构建了基于低碳理念的区域交通模式等。
The grim situation of carbon emissions from the transport sector, have attractedworldwide attention. With the advance of industrialization, urbanization, carbondioxide emissions from the transport sector in China will be presented a dramaticgrowth trends. Low carbon transformation in the transport sector has become a realand pressing problem.
However, before beginning to the low carbon transition, you must first determinetransportation carbon emissions type in China. It directly determines the direction oftransportation development. Second, staged development characteristic on the impactof carbon emissions in transport in China are still in discussion. In addition,high-carbon to low carbon transport traffic study on the mechanism of transformationhas yet to be. Finally, in the context of regional coordinated development, traffic oflow-carbon transition must also match the phase of development. Therefore, in-depthresearch on low carbon transport is of great practical and theoretical significance forChina's sustainable development.
Through the comparative analysis, model analysis, measurement analysis, weresearch on the issue of China's low carbon transition of the transport sector. Majorreplied to transport carbon emissions type in China, low carbon transformationmechanisms in transportation, Construction of regional traffic patterns which is basedon the concept of low-carbon theoretical. By low carbon transportation research, drawthe following conclusions:(1) Transport carbon emissions in China are high carbonemissions. By comparison with the developed countries, there is low carbon emissionefficiency in the transport sector in China.(2) The stage at the impact on thedevelopment characteristics of transportation carbon emissions significantly.Industrial structure adjustment has contributed to help transport carbon emissions, andthe process of urbanization to promote the transport emissions.(3) Transport sector’structure optimization, compact mode of urbanization, economic structural adjustment,are contributed to low carbonation transformation of high-carbon transportation. Taxation, subsidies and other fiscal means to traffic demand side is the mainendogenous variable, technology upgrades under the economic structure, compactsystem of urbanization pattern in creating, low carbon supply is mainly exogenousadjustment variable.(4) Built four regional modes based on the concept of low-carbontransportation: Yangtze Delta and Pearl River Delta, Bohai Bay model, Midwest mode.(5) Introduced a transport infrastructure supply strategies, low carbonation systemsupply low carbonation and low carbide supply strategy, technology strategy, theindustrial structure of low carbon boot strategy, differentiated patterns of low-carbonregional transportation strategy suggestions.
This innovation is the judgment of China transportation sector carbon type, buildthe driving factors of China's transportation sector emissions growth models, analysisof high carbon transport transited to a low carbon transport mechanism, built based onthe concept of low-carbon regional traffic patterns, and so on.
然而交通低碳化转型之前,首先必须判定中国交通碳排放类型,这直接决定了交通发展的方向。其次,阶段性发展特征对于中国交通碳排放的影响机制还待于探讨。再者,高碳交通向低碳交通转型的机理还有待于研究。最后,在区域协调发展的背景下,交通低碳化的转型还必须与阶段化发展相匹配。因此,深入开展低碳交通研究对于中国可持续发展具有重要的现实和理论意义。
本文运用比较分析法、模型分析法、计量分析法等,研究了中国交通部门低碳化转型的问题。主要回答了中国交通碳排放类型、阶段性发展特征对于中国交通碳排放的影响机制、交通低碳化转型的机理机制、基于低碳理念的区域交通模式等理论性问题。通过低碳交通研究,得出以下结论：(1)中国交通碳排放属于高碳排放。通过与发达国家的横向比较,可发现中国交通部门碳排放效率处于较低水平。(2)阶段性发展特征对于交通碳排放影响显著。产业结构的调整有助于交通碳减排,而城镇化的进程促进了交通碳排放。(3)交通结构优化、紧凑型城镇化模式、经济结构调整等有助于高碳交通的低碳化转型。其中交通需求侧的税收、补贴等财税手段是主要的内生调节变量,经济结构下的技术升级、紧凑型城镇化模式创建、制度的低碳化供给等是主要的外生调节变量。(4)构建了基于低碳理念的四种区域交通模式：长三角模式、珠三角模式、渤海湾模式、中西部模式。(5)提出了交通基础设施低碳化供给战略、制度低碳化供给战略、技术低碳化供给战略、产业结构的低碳化引导战略、差异化的低碳区域交通模式构建战略等对策建议。
本文创新点是判定了中国交通部门碳排放类型、构建了中国交通部门碳排放增长的驱动因素分析模型、剖析了高碳交通向低碳交通转型的机理机制、构建了基于低碳理念的区域交通模式等。
The grim situation of carbon emissions from the transport sector, have attractedworldwide attention. With the advance of industrialization, urbanization, carbondioxide emissions from the transport sector in China will be presented a dramaticgrowth trends. Low carbon transformation in the transport sector has become a realand pressing problem.
However, before beginning to the low carbon transition, you must first determinetransportation carbon emissions type in China. It directly determines the direction oftransportation development. Second, staged development characteristic on the impactof carbon emissions in transport in China are still in discussion. In addition,high-carbon to low carbon transport traffic study on the mechanism of transformationhas yet to be. Finally, in the context of regional coordinated development, traffic oflow-carbon transition must also match the phase of development. Therefore, in-depthresearch on low carbon transport is of great practical and theoretical significance forChina's sustainable development.
Through the comparative analysis, model analysis, measurement analysis, weresearch on the issue of China's low carbon transition of the transport sector. Majorreplied to transport carbon emissions type in China, low carbon transformationmechanisms in transportation, Construction of regional traffic patterns which is basedon the concept of low-carbon theoretical. By low carbon transportation research, drawthe following conclusions:(1) Transport carbon emissions in China are high carbonemissions. By comparison with the developed countries, there is low carbon emissionefficiency in the transport sector in China.(2) The stage at the impact on thedevelopment characteristics of transportation carbon emissions significantly.Industrial structure adjustment has contributed to help transport carbon emissions, andthe process of urbanization to promote the transport emissions.(3) Transport sector’structure optimization, compact mode of urbanization, economic structural adjustment,are contributed to low carbonation transformation of high-carbon transportation. Taxation, subsidies and other fiscal means to traffic demand side is the mainendogenous variable, technology upgrades under the economic structure, compactsystem of urbanization pattern in creating, low carbon supply is mainly exogenousadjustment variable.(4) Built four regional modes based on the concept of low-carbontransportation: Yangtze Delta and Pearl River Delta, Bohai Bay model, Midwest mode.(5) Introduced a transport infrastructure supply strategies, low carbonation systemsupply low carbonation and low carbide supply strategy, technology strategy, theindustrial structure of low carbon boot strategy, differentiated patterns of low-carbonregional transportation strategy suggestions.
This innovation is the judgment of China transportation sector carbon type, buildthe driving factors of China's transportation sector emissions growth models, analysisof high carbon transport transited to a low carbon transport mechanism, built based onthe concept of low-carbon regional traffic patterns, and so on.
引文
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