中国出口贸易隐含碳排放及影响因素的实证研究
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摘要
中国是碳排放大国,也是出口大国,为了厘清中国货物出口贸易与碳排放之间的关系,本文利用扣除了进口中间投入品的投入产出模型,计算出2006-2009年中国出口贸易中的隐含碳排放及占当年中国碳排放总量的比重,并进行行业结构和区域结构分析。同时在投入产出模型的基础上,利用对数平均迪氏指数法对中国出口贸易隐含碳排放的影响因素进行结构分解分析,将其分为强度效应、结构效应和规模效应。
研究结果表明：2006-2009年中国出口贸易隐含碳排放呈下降趋势,但在碳排放总量中仍占有较高比重,平均占比约为22.10%；机器、机械器具、电气设备及其零件、录音机及放声机、电视图像业,纺织、服装和皮革业等出口贸易隐含碳排放较高,这与出口额以及碳排放强度高度相关；中国对发达经济体的出口贸易隐含碳排放高于发展中经济体,这与中国参与国际产业分工的模式有关；在影响碳排放的因素中,强度效应贡献率为112.33%,说明中国各行业碳排放强度的下降是碳排放减少的主要原因,其次是规模效应,原因是,出口额的扩大会增加碳排放,但由于强度效应和结构效应的影响,使得最终的碳排放减少,因此贡献率为负值,为-16.47%,最后是结构效应,贡献率为4.14%,说明出口结构的优化有利于减少碳排放。
中国应改善出口贸易商品结构,如加快推进产业升级、提高出口贸易碳壁垒、限制碳排放强度高的外商投资项目进入中国；降低主要出口行业(产品)的隐含碳排放,如降低行业完全碳排放强度、进一步优化产品结构；强化出口市场多元化；将部分高能耗、高污染和低技术的低端产业或加工程序转移到国外,实行境外加工贸易。
China is the primary emitter of CO2, and also the biggest exporter in the world. In order to clarify the relationship between China's export trade of goods and carbon emissions, the paper estimates the embodied carbon emissions of China's exports and the ratio of it to the total carbon emissions during2006-2009based on the input-output model deducting the imported intermediate inputs, and analyzes the industrial and regional structure respectively. Based on the input-output model and logarithmic mean divisia index, the paper uses structure decomposition analysis to study the impacting factors of China's carbon emissions embodied in exports. They are decomposed into three parts:intensity effect, structure effect and scale effect.
It reveals that the embodied carbon emissions of China's exports declined, but it still accounted for a high proportion of total carbon emissions. Industry of machinery, mechanical appliances, electrical equipment and parts thereof, sound recorders, reproducers, and television image exported the maximum embodied carbon emissions, followed by industry of textile, leather and footwear, which was highly correlated with the export value and carbon intensity. The embodied carbon emissions exported to the developed economies were larger than the developing economies, which was bound up with China's participation in the international industrial division of labor. The contribution rate of the intensity effect was112.33%, showing that the decline of industries' carbon intensity was the main reason for the decreased carbon emissions. The scale effect was the second reason, whose contribution rate was-16.47%. The increasing exports added to the carbon emissions, however, the intensity and structure effect decreased the final carbon emissions, so the contribution rate was negative. The structure effect came last, whose contribution rate was4.14%, indicating that the optimized export structure reduced the carbon emissions.
First, China should improve the structure of exported commodities, such as accelerating industrial upgrading, setting up higher carbon barriers of export trade and restricting the access of the carbon-intensive foreign investment projects to China. Second, China ought to reduce the embodied carbon emissions of the main export industries (products), for instance, reducing the complete carbon emission intensity of industries and further optimizing the product structure. Third, China is supposed to strengthen the diversification of export markets. Last, China should encourage overseas processing trade, transferring the high energy consumption, high pollution and low-skilled low-end industries or processes abroad.
研究结果表明：2006-2009年中国出口贸易隐含碳排放呈下降趋势,但在碳排放总量中仍占有较高比重,平均占比约为22.10%；机器、机械器具、电气设备及其零件、录音机及放声机、电视图像业,纺织、服装和皮革业等出口贸易隐含碳排放较高,这与出口额以及碳排放强度高度相关；中国对发达经济体的出口贸易隐含碳排放高于发展中经济体,这与中国参与国际产业分工的模式有关；在影响碳排放的因素中,强度效应贡献率为112.33%,说明中国各行业碳排放强度的下降是碳排放减少的主要原因,其次是规模效应,原因是,出口额的扩大会增加碳排放,但由于强度效应和结构效应的影响,使得最终的碳排放减少,因此贡献率为负值,为-16.47%,最后是结构效应,贡献率为4.14%,说明出口结构的优化有利于减少碳排放。
中国应改善出口贸易商品结构,如加快推进产业升级、提高出口贸易碳壁垒、限制碳排放强度高的外商投资项目进入中国；降低主要出口行业(产品)的隐含碳排放,如降低行业完全碳排放强度、进一步优化产品结构；强化出口市场多元化；将部分高能耗、高污染和低技术的低端产业或加工程序转移到国外,实行境外加工贸易。
China is the primary emitter of CO2, and also the biggest exporter in the world. In order to clarify the relationship between China's export trade of goods and carbon emissions, the paper estimates the embodied carbon emissions of China's exports and the ratio of it to the total carbon emissions during2006-2009based on the input-output model deducting the imported intermediate inputs, and analyzes the industrial and regional structure respectively. Based on the input-output model and logarithmic mean divisia index, the paper uses structure decomposition analysis to study the impacting factors of China's carbon emissions embodied in exports. They are decomposed into three parts:intensity effect, structure effect and scale effect.
It reveals that the embodied carbon emissions of China's exports declined, but it still accounted for a high proportion of total carbon emissions. Industry of machinery, mechanical appliances, electrical equipment and parts thereof, sound recorders, reproducers, and television image exported the maximum embodied carbon emissions, followed by industry of textile, leather and footwear, which was highly correlated with the export value and carbon intensity. The embodied carbon emissions exported to the developed economies were larger than the developing economies, which was bound up with China's participation in the international industrial division of labor. The contribution rate of the intensity effect was112.33%, showing that the decline of industries' carbon intensity was the main reason for the decreased carbon emissions. The scale effect was the second reason, whose contribution rate was-16.47%. The increasing exports added to the carbon emissions, however, the intensity and structure effect decreased the final carbon emissions, so the contribution rate was negative. The structure effect came last, whose contribution rate was4.14%, indicating that the optimized export structure reduced the carbon emissions.
First, China should improve the structure of exported commodities, such as accelerating industrial upgrading, setting up higher carbon barriers of export trade and restricting the access of the carbon-intensive foreign investment projects to China. Second, China ought to reduce the embodied carbon emissions of the main export industries (products), for instance, reducing the complete carbon emission intensity of industries and further optimizing the product structure. Third, China is supposed to strengthen the diversification of export markets. Last, China should encourage overseas processing trade, transferring the high energy consumption, high pollution and low-skilled low-end industries or processes abroad.
引文
1 沃西里·里昂惕夫,投入产出经济学，商务印书馆，1982. 经济学,商务印书馆,1982.
[1]付加锋,高庆先.中国国际贸易中的内涵CO-2排放及其空间特征[J].资源开发与市场,2009,25(7)：602-605.
[2]冯相昭,王雪臣,陈红枫.1971—2005年中国CO-2排放影响因素分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(1)：42-47.
[3]王春杰,马忠玉,王灿,刘子刚.中国能源消费导致的CO-2排放量的差异特征分析[J].生态环境,2006,15(5)：1029-1034.
[4]齐晔,李惠民,徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3)：8-13.
[5]刘强,庄幸,姜克隽,韩文科.中国出口贸易中的载能量及碳排放量分析[J].中国工业经济,2008,8(245)：46-55.
[6]张友国.中国贸易含碳量及其影响因素--基于(进口)非竞争型投入-产出表的分析[J].经济学(季刊),2010,9(4)：1287-1310.
[7]何其祥.投入产出分析[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.
[8]张亚雄,赵坤.区域间投入产出分析[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2006.
[9]赵晓丽,洪东悦.中国对外贸易对能源消费的影响：基于结构因素分解法的分析[J].财贸经济,2009,9：102-107.
[]0]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6)：158-161.
[11]黄敏,伍世林.贸易中隐含碳问题溯源及其研究进展[J].上海商学院学报,2010,11(2)：77-80.
[12]魏本勇,方修琦,王媛,张学珍,杨会民.基于最终需求的中国出口贸易碳排放研究[J].地理科学,2009,29(5)：634-640.
[13]Ackerman Frank, Ishikawa Masanobu, Suga Mikio. The carbon content of Japan-US trade [J]. Energy Policy,2007,35:4455-4462.
[14]Ang B.W., Zhang F.Q., Choi Ki-Hong. Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition [J]. Energy,1998,23(6):489-495.
[15]Chang Yih F, Lin Sue J. Structural decomposition of industrial CO2 emission in Taiwan: an input-output approach [J]. Energy Policy,1998,26(1):5-12.
[16]Dong Yanli, Ishikawa Masanobu, Liu Xianbing, Wang Can. An analysis of the driving forces of CO2 emissions embodied in Japan-China trade [J]. Energy Policy,2010,38: 6784-6792.
[17]Fan Ying, Liu Lan Cui, Gang Wu, Tsai Hsien-Tang, Wei Yi-Ming. Changes in carbon intensity in China:Empirical findings from 1980-2003 [J]. Ecological Economics,2007, 62:683-691.
[18]Liu Xianbing, Ishikawa Masanobu, Can Wang, Yanli Dong, Wenling Liu. Analyses of CO2 emissions embodied in Japan-China trade [J]. Energy Policy,2010,38:1510-1518.
[19]Li You, Hewitt C.N.. The effect of trade between China and the UK on national and global carbon dioxide emissions [J]. Energy Policy,2008,36:1907-1914.
[20]Lin Boqiang, Sun Chuanwang. Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China [J]. Energy Policy,2010,38:613-621.
[21]Li You, Hewitt C.N.. The effect of trade between China and the UK on national and global carbon dioxide emissions [J]. Energy Policy,2008,36:1907-1914.
[22]Maenpaa Ilmo, Siikavirta Hanne. Greenhouse gases embodied in the international trade and final consumption of Finland:An input-output analysis [J]. Energy Policy,2007,35: 128-143.
[23]Munoz Pablo, Steininger Karl W.. Austria's CO2 responsibility and the carbon content of its international trade [J]. Ecological Economics,2010,69:2003-2019.
[24]Peters Glen P., Hertwich Edgar G.. Pollution embodied in trade:The Norwegian case [J]. Global Environmental Change,2006,16:379-387.
[25]Rueda-Cantuche Jose M., Amores Antonio F.. Consistent and unbiased carbon dioxide emission multipliers:Performance of Danish emission reductions via external trade [J]. Ecological Economics,2010,69:988-998.
[26]Rhee Hae-Chun, Chung Hyun-Sik. Change in CO2 emission and its transmissions between Korea and Japan using international input-output analysis [J]. Ecological Economics,2006,58:788-800.
[27]Shui Bin, Harriss Robert C., The role of CO2 embodiment in US-China trade [J]. Energy Policy,2006,34:4063-4068.
[28]Stretesky Paul B., Lynch Michael J., A cross-national study of the association between per capita carbon dioxide emissions and exports to the United States [J]. Social Science Research,2009,38:239-250.
[29]Schaeffer Roberto, Andre Leal de Sa. The embodiment of carbon associated with Brazilian imports and exports [J]. Energy Conversion and Management,1996, 37(6-8):955-960.
[30]Shui Bin, Harriss Robert C., The role of CO2 embodiment in US-China trade [J]. Energy Policy,2006,34:4063-4068.
[31]Schipper Lee, Murtishaw Scott, Khrushch Marta, Ting Michael, Karbuz Sohbet, Unander Fridtjof. Carbon emissions from manufacturing energy use in 13 1EA countries: long-term trends through 1995 [J]. Energy Policy,2001,29:667-688.
[32]Tune G. Ipek, Turut-Asik Serap, Akbostanci Elif. CO2 emissions vs. CO2 responsibility: An input-output approach for the Turkish economy [J]. Energy Policy,2007,35: 855-868.
[33]Weber Christopher L., Matthews H. Scott. Quantifying the global and distributional aspects of American household carbon footprint [J]. Ecological Economics,2008,66: 379-391.
[34]Wiedmann Thomas, Lenzen Manfred, Turner Karen, Barrett John. Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities-Part 2:Review of input-output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade [J]. Ecological Economics,2007,61:15-26.
[35]Wang Can, Chen Jining, Zou Ji. Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emission in China: 1957-2000 [J]. Energy,2005,30:73-83.
[36]Yan Yunfeng, Yang Laike. China's foreign trade and climate change:A case study of CO2 emissions [J]. Energy Policy,2010,38:350-356.
[37]Yabe Nobuko. An analysis of CO2 emissions of Japanese industries during the period between 1985 and 1995 [J]. Energy Policy,2004,32:595-610.
[1]付加锋,高庆先.中国国际贸易中的内涵CO-2排放及其空间特征[J].资源开发与市场,2009,25(7)：602-605.
[2]冯相昭,王雪臣,陈红枫.1971—2005年中国CO-2排放影响因素分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(1)：42-47.
[3]王春杰,马忠玉,王灿,刘子刚.中国能源消费导致的CO-2排放量的差异特征分析[J].生态环境,2006,15(5)：1029-1034.
[4]齐晔,李惠民,徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3)：8-13.
[5]刘强,庄幸,姜克隽,韩文科.中国出口贸易中的载能量及碳排放量分析[J].中国工业经济,2008,8(245)：46-55.
[6]张友国.中国贸易含碳量及其影响因素--基于(进口)非竞争型投入-产出表的分析[J].经济学(季刊),2010,9(4)：1287-1310.
[7]何其祥.投入产出分析[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.
[8]张亚雄,赵坤.区域间投入产出分析[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2006.
[9]赵晓丽,洪东悦.中国对外贸易对能源消费的影响：基于结构因素分解法的分析[J].财贸经济,2009,9：102-107.
[]0]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6)：158-161.
[11]黄敏,伍世林.贸易中隐含碳问题溯源及其研究进展[J].上海商学院学报,2010,11(2)：77-80.
[12]魏本勇,方修琦,王媛,张学珍,杨会民.基于最终需求的中国出口贸易碳排放研究[J].地理科学,2009,29(5)：634-640.
[13]Ackerman Frank, Ishikawa Masanobu, Suga Mikio. The carbon content of Japan-US trade [J]. Energy Policy,2007,35:4455-4462.
[14]Ang B.W., Zhang F.Q., Choi Ki-Hong. Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition [J]. Energy,1998,23(6):489-495.
[15]Chang Yih F, Lin Sue J. Structural decomposition of industrial CO2 emission in Taiwan: an input-output approach [J]. Energy Policy,1998,26(1):5-12.
[16]Dong Yanli, Ishikawa Masanobu, Liu Xianbing, Wang Can. An analysis of the driving forces of CO2 emissions embodied in Japan-China trade [J]. Energy Policy,2010,38: 6784-6792.
[17]Fan Ying, Liu Lan Cui, Gang Wu, Tsai Hsien-Tang, Wei Yi-Ming. Changes in carbon intensity in China:Empirical findings from 1980-2003 [J]. Ecological Economics,2007, 62:683-691.
[18]Liu Xianbing, Ishikawa Masanobu, Can Wang, Yanli Dong, Wenling Liu. Analyses of CO2 emissions embodied in Japan-China trade [J]. Energy Policy,2010,38:1510-1518.
[19]Li You, Hewitt C.N.. The effect of trade between China and the UK on national and global carbon dioxide emissions [J]. Energy Policy,2008,36:1907-1914.
[20]Lin Boqiang, Sun Chuanwang. Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China [J]. Energy Policy,2010,38:613-621.
[21]Li You, Hewitt C.N.. The effect of trade between China and the UK on national and global carbon dioxide emissions [J]. Energy Policy,2008,36:1907-1914.
[22]Maenpaa Ilmo, Siikavirta Hanne. Greenhouse gases embodied in the international trade and final consumption of Finland:An input-output analysis [J]. Energy Policy,2007,35: 128-143.
[23]Munoz Pablo, Steininger Karl W.. Austria's CO2 responsibility and the carbon content of its international trade [J]. Ecological Economics,2010,69:2003-2019.
[24]Peters Glen P., Hertwich Edgar G.. Pollution embodied in trade:The Norwegian case [J]. Global Environmental Change,2006,16:379-387.
[25]Rueda-Cantuche Jose M., Amores Antonio F.. Consistent and unbiased carbon dioxide emission multipliers:Performance of Danish emission reductions via external trade [J]. Ecological Economics,2010,69:988-998.
[26]Rhee Hae-Chun, Chung Hyun-Sik. Change in CO2 emission and its transmissions between Korea and Japan using international input-output analysis [J]. Ecological Economics,2006,58:788-800.
[27]Shui Bin, Harriss Robert C., The role of CO2 embodiment in US-China trade [J]. Energy Policy,2006,34:4063-4068.
[28]Stretesky Paul B., Lynch Michael J., A cross-national study of the association between per capita carbon dioxide emissions and exports to the United States [J]. Social Science Research,2009,38:239-250.
[29]Schaeffer Roberto, Andre Leal de Sa. The embodiment of carbon associated with Brazilian imports and exports [J]. Energy Conversion and Management,1996, 37(6-8):955-960.
[30]Shui Bin, Harriss Robert C., The role of CO2 embodiment in US-China trade [J]. Energy Policy,2006,34:4063-4068.
[31]Schipper Lee, Murtishaw Scott, Khrushch Marta, Ting Michael, Karbuz Sohbet, Unander Fridtjof. Carbon emissions from manufacturing energy use in 13 1EA countries: long-term trends through 1995 [J]. Energy Policy,2001,29:667-688.
[32]Tune G. Ipek, Turut-Asik Serap, Akbostanci Elif. CO2 emissions vs. CO2 responsibility: An input-output approach for the Turkish economy [J]. Energy Policy,2007,35: 855-868.
[33]Weber Christopher L., Matthews H. Scott. Quantifying the global and distributional aspects of American household carbon footprint [J]. Ecological Economics,2008,66: 379-391.
[34]Wiedmann Thomas, Lenzen Manfred, Turner Karen, Barrett John. Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities-Part 2:Review of input-output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade [J]. Ecological Economics,2007,61:15-26.
[35]Wang Can, Chen Jining, Zou Ji. Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emission in China: 1957-2000 [J]. Energy,2005,30:73-83.
[36]Yan Yunfeng, Yang Laike. China's foreign trade and climate change:A case study of CO2 emissions [J]. Energy Policy,2010,38:350-356.
[37]Yabe Nobuko. An analysis of CO2 emissions of Japanese industries during the period between 1985 and 1995 [J]. Energy Policy,2004,32:595-610.