中石化财务预警模型研究及设计
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摘要
财务危机预警系统即是以财务会计信息为基础,通过设置并观察一些敏感性财务指标的变化,对公司可能或即将面临的财务危机所实施的控制和预测警报系统。随着国际经济一体化步伐的加快,我国公司面临的国际、国内竞争日趋激烈,公司要生存、要发展就要最大限度的降低风险,建立一个完善的危机预警系统,随时对企业的财务状况进行跟踪、监控,及时地进行财务预警分析,及早发现财务危机信号,以避免或减少对企业的破坏。
本文通过对中石化、中石油、中海油所属50家企业发放的280份调查问卷,结合被调查者意见以及财务危机预警的内涵,初步筛选了下列7大类14个指标,初步构建了中石化财务危机预警指标体系。结合中国石化行业自身的特点并广泛收集其财务数据,在样本的选择上,由于金融危机的爆发对各公司的影响不同,使得2008年各公司的数据不具有可比性,因此本文选取了2006年和2007年被特别处理(ST公司)和非ST公司的石化行业的18家上市公司的财务资料。采用Logistic回归分析的方法,设计了适用于中石化公司的财务预警模型。并在此基础上结合中国石化行业的特点设置了与Logistic财务预警模型相匹配的预警值,评估中石化的财务风险。
为了检验构建的预警模型在中石化股份公司的可行性,本文选择中石化总公司及下属的上中下游三家有代表性的分公司进行分析,分别为中石化A油田分公司、中国石化B石油分公司、中石化C石化分公司,通过对2005年到2007年三年的财务数据和相关财务资料进行财务分析,对Logistic模型的预警结果进行检验,以证明该Logistic财务预警模型在中石化是否适用。
最后,本文设计出基于中国石化公司财务数据的财务风险预警系统,实现财务风险预警的计算机化。财务风险预警系统主要分为五个功能模块:软件登录,软件管理,模型数据导入,模型数据录入和财务风险预警模型分析。在软件系统的设计上,考虑了用户的实际使用情况,界面友好,同时与预警模型的融和度强。另外,通过手工验算与软件输出,验证了本系统能准确地反映预警模型。
The financial crisis early-warning system based on accounting and financial information, is a system that can control and forecast alerts about financial risks that enterprises probably or will face by setting and observing changes of some sensitive financial indicators. With the accelerated pace of international economic integration, the international and domestic market competition that Chinese companies has to face has been becoming increasingly fierce. In order to survive and develop, companies need to establish an effective financial crisis early-warning system to achieve the maximum risk reduction. The financial crisis early-warning system can help enterprises avoid or reduce damages by real time tracking and monitoring the financial position of the enterprises, timely making financial early-warning analysis and early detecting financial distress signs.
This thesis preliminarily filtered out 7 major categories and 14 indicators by distributing 280 copies of questionnaires to 50 enterprises owned by Sinopec, CNPC and CNOOC. Combining with the views of the respondents as well as the financial crisis early-warning theory, the financial crisis early-warning indicator system of Sinopec was preliminarily established. According to the characteristics of China's petrochemical industry, large amount of financial data from it has been extensively collected. Since various companies were impacted differently by the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the financial data in 2008 collected from these companies is not comparable. On the choice of sample, financial information in 2006 and 2007 from 18 listed companies in Company's petrochemical industry including special treatment (ST's) and non-ST is selected in this paper. Using the selected sample data and adopting logistic regression analysis method, the financial early-warning model applicable for Sinopec and its subsidiaries was designed in this paper. In addition, Pre-warning values that match the Logistic financial early-warning model are set, which are used to assess the financial risk of the companies owned by Sinopec.
This thesis chooses Petrochemical Corporation and its three representative subsidiaries from its upstream, midstream and downstream as examples to test the feasibility of the established financial early-warning model in Petrochemical Corporation. The three representative subsidiaries are called Sinopec A Oilfield Company, Sinopec B Petroleum Company, and Sinopec C Petrochemical Company in this paper. The early-warning results of the logistic model got tested by analyzing three years of financial data and related financial information from 2005 to 2007. The test results are used to prove whether the logistic financial early-warning model is applicable for Sinopec and its subsidiaries.
Finally, the financial risk early-warning information system based on Petrochemical Corporation financial data was implemented in this paper, which achieve the computerization of the financial risk early warning. The main function of the financial risk early-warning information system includes login module, software management module, importing model data module, model data entry module, and financial early-warning model analysis module. In the design of the software system, the user-friendly graphical interface and the strong degree of integration with early-warning model are achieved based on the consideration of the actual application. In addition, in this paper, the financial risk early-warning information system was verified by comparing the results of manual calculation and software output. The results show that the financial risk early-warning information system can accurately reflect the established early-warning model.
本文通过对中石化、中石油、中海油所属50家企业发放的280份调查问卷,结合被调查者意见以及财务危机预警的内涵,初步筛选了下列7大类14个指标,初步构建了中石化财务危机预警指标体系。结合中国石化行业自身的特点并广泛收集其财务数据,在样本的选择上,由于金融危机的爆发对各公司的影响不同,使得2008年各公司的数据不具有可比性,因此本文选取了2006年和2007年被特别处理(ST公司)和非ST公司的石化行业的18家上市公司的财务资料。采用Logistic回归分析的方法,设计了适用于中石化公司的财务预警模型。并在此基础上结合中国石化行业的特点设置了与Logistic财务预警模型相匹配的预警值,评估中石化的财务风险。
为了检验构建的预警模型在中石化股份公司的可行性,本文选择中石化总公司及下属的上中下游三家有代表性的分公司进行分析,分别为中石化A油田分公司、中国石化B石油分公司、中石化C石化分公司,通过对2005年到2007年三年的财务数据和相关财务资料进行财务分析,对Logistic模型的预警结果进行检验,以证明该Logistic财务预警模型在中石化是否适用。
最后,本文设计出基于中国石化公司财务数据的财务风险预警系统,实现财务风险预警的计算机化。财务风险预警系统主要分为五个功能模块:软件登录,软件管理,模型数据导入,模型数据录入和财务风险预警模型分析。在软件系统的设计上,考虑了用户的实际使用情况,界面友好,同时与预警模型的融和度强。另外,通过手工验算与软件输出,验证了本系统能准确地反映预警模型。
The financial crisis early-warning system based on accounting and financial information, is a system that can control and forecast alerts about financial risks that enterprises probably or will face by setting and observing changes of some sensitive financial indicators. With the accelerated pace of international economic integration, the international and domestic market competition that Chinese companies has to face has been becoming increasingly fierce. In order to survive and develop, companies need to establish an effective financial crisis early-warning system to achieve the maximum risk reduction. The financial crisis early-warning system can help enterprises avoid or reduce damages by real time tracking and monitoring the financial position of the enterprises, timely making financial early-warning analysis and early detecting financial distress signs.
This thesis preliminarily filtered out 7 major categories and 14 indicators by distributing 280 copies of questionnaires to 50 enterprises owned by Sinopec, CNPC and CNOOC. Combining with the views of the respondents as well as the financial crisis early-warning theory, the financial crisis early-warning indicator system of Sinopec was preliminarily established. According to the characteristics of China's petrochemical industry, large amount of financial data from it has been extensively collected. Since various companies were impacted differently by the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the financial data in 2008 collected from these companies is not comparable. On the choice of sample, financial information in 2006 and 2007 from 18 listed companies in Company's petrochemical industry including special treatment (ST's) and non-ST is selected in this paper. Using the selected sample data and adopting logistic regression analysis method, the financial early-warning model applicable for Sinopec and its subsidiaries was designed in this paper. In addition, Pre-warning values that match the Logistic financial early-warning model are set, which are used to assess the financial risk of the companies owned by Sinopec.
This thesis chooses Petrochemical Corporation and its three representative subsidiaries from its upstream, midstream and downstream as examples to test the feasibility of the established financial early-warning model in Petrochemical Corporation. The three representative subsidiaries are called Sinopec A Oilfield Company, Sinopec B Petroleum Company, and Sinopec C Petrochemical Company in this paper. The early-warning results of the logistic model got tested by analyzing three years of financial data and related financial information from 2005 to 2007. The test results are used to prove whether the logistic financial early-warning model is applicable for Sinopec and its subsidiaries.
Finally, the financial risk early-warning information system based on Petrochemical Corporation financial data was implemented in this paper, which achieve the computerization of the financial risk early warning. The main function of the financial risk early-warning information system includes login module, software management module, importing model data module, model data entry module, and financial early-warning model analysis module. In the design of the software system, the user-friendly graphical interface and the strong degree of integration with early-warning model are achieved based on the consideration of the actual application. In addition, in this paper, the financial risk early-warning information system was verified by comparing the results of manual calculation and software output. The results show that the financial risk early-warning information system can accurately reflect the established early-warning model.
引文
[1]张友棠.财务预警系统管理研究.中国人民大学出版社.2004年3月第一版
[2]财政部企业司.企业财务风险管理.经济科学出版社.2004年4月第一版
[3]张鸣,张艳,程涛.企业财务预警研究前沿.中国财政经济出版社2004年4月第一版
[4]李浩.结合股权结构指标的上市公司财务危机预警模型研究.经济论坛2007年24期
[5]吴芃,蔡秋萍,吴应宇.我国上市公司财务危机预警实证研究——基于主成分分析模型、线性判别模型和逻辑回归模型的比较分析.河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版).2007年04期
[6]刘胜伟,周盛.上市公司财务危机预警模型的实证研究.金融经济2007年10期
[7]张玲.财务危机预警分析判别模型及其应用.预测.2006年06期
[8]朱振梅.基于logistic回归的上市公司财务危机预警模型.会计之友(下旬刊). 2007年08期
[9]朱其俊,郜燕.基于多元统计分析的上市公司财务危机预警模型的研究.现代管理科学2007年05期
[10]彭小英.现金流视角的我国上市公司财务危机预警模型实证研究.华东师范大学。2007年
[11]高晓鑫.苏宁.财务预警模型初探.科学与管理.2008年01期
[12]胡磊.“Z-socre”模型在我国中小企业板上市公司财务预警中的应用研究.企业科技与发展.2008年08期
[13] Eugene F Brigham,Michael C Ehrhardt . Financial management theory and practice China Financial & Economic Publishing House 2003
[14] Jan R Williams,Susan F Haka,Mark S Bettner . Financial and managerial accounting China Machine Press 2005
[15] Agmon, Tamir. 1985. Political economy and risk in world financial markets. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books.
[16] Brewer, Thomas L. 1983. The instability of governments and the instability of controls on funds transfers by multinational enterprises. Journal of International Business Studies, 14(3): 147-57.
[17] Banham, R. 2004. Enterprising views of risk management. Journal of Accountancy, 197(6): 65-71.
[18] Bunn, D.W. & M.M. Mustafaoglu. 1978. Forecasting political risk. Management Science, 24: 1557-67.
[19] Dunn, John. 1983. Country risk: Social and cultural aspects. In Richard J. Herring, editor, Managing international risk, 139-68. New York: Cambridge University Press.
[20] Fama, Eugene F. 1980. Agency problems and the theory of the firm. Journal of Political Economy, 88: 288-307.
[21] Fama, Eugene F & Michael C. Jensen. 1983. Separation of ownership and control. Journal of Law and Economics, 26: 301-25.
[22] Herring, Richard J., editor. 1983. Managing foreign exchange risk New York Cambridge University Press.
[23]唐闰春.公司财务分析的基本程序和方法,现代商贸工业.2009年01期
[24]鄢志娟.基于现金流量的企业财务危机预警系统分析.改革与战略. 2008年08期
[25]许亮.我国上市公司财务预警模型实证研究.同济大学.2007年
[26]邓敏.韩玉启.财务危机预警理论研究述评.商场现代化.2008年35
[27]Herbert Schildt著,周志彬,周建宁,章小莉.译Java2参考大全.北京:电子工业出版社,2003
[28]H.M.Deitel, P.J.Deitel著施平安,施惠琼,柳赐佳译Java程序设计教程(第5版)北京清华大学出版社,2004
[29]朱福喜.Java语言程序设计.北京.清华大学出版社,2005
[30]邝孔武、王晓敏.信息系统分析与设计.北京.清华大学出版社2006
[31]杨树林,胡洁萍Java语言最新实用案例教程.北京.清华大学出版社,2006
[32](美)Robert Vivira SQL Server 2005.编程入门经典(第2版).北京.清华大学出版社,2006
[33]刘颖.SQL Server 2005 .Transact-SQL编程入门经典.北京.清华大学出版社,2006
[34]Andrew J. Brust, Stephen Forte,Programming .Microsoft 2005,Microsoft Press.2006
[35]Bill Hamilton,Programming. SQL Server 2005, O’Reilly.2006
[2]财政部企业司.企业财务风险管理.经济科学出版社.2004年4月第一版
[3]张鸣,张艳,程涛.企业财务预警研究前沿.中国财政经济出版社2004年4月第一版
[4]李浩.结合股权结构指标的上市公司财务危机预警模型研究.经济论坛2007年24期
[5]吴芃,蔡秋萍,吴应宇.我国上市公司财务危机预警实证研究——基于主成分分析模型、线性判别模型和逻辑回归模型的比较分析.河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版).2007年04期
[6]刘胜伟,周盛.上市公司财务危机预警模型的实证研究.金融经济2007年10期
[7]张玲.财务危机预警分析判别模型及其应用.预测.2006年06期
[8]朱振梅.基于logistic回归的上市公司财务危机预警模型.会计之友(下旬刊). 2007年08期
[9]朱其俊,郜燕.基于多元统计分析的上市公司财务危机预警模型的研究.现代管理科学2007年05期
[10]彭小英.现金流视角的我国上市公司财务危机预警模型实证研究.华东师范大学。2007年
[11]高晓鑫.苏宁.财务预警模型初探.科学与管理.2008年01期
[12]胡磊.“Z-socre”模型在我国中小企业板上市公司财务预警中的应用研究.企业科技与发展.2008年08期
[13] Eugene F Brigham,Michael C Ehrhardt . Financial management theory and practice China Financial & Economic Publishing House 2003
[14] Jan R Williams,Susan F Haka,Mark S Bettner . Financial and managerial accounting China Machine Press 2005
[15] Agmon, Tamir. 1985. Political economy and risk in world financial markets. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books.
[16] Brewer, Thomas L. 1983. The instability of governments and the instability of controls on funds transfers by multinational enterprises. Journal of International Business Studies, 14(3): 147-57.
[17] Banham, R. 2004. Enterprising views of risk management. Journal of Accountancy, 197(6): 65-71.
[18] Bunn, D.W. & M.M. Mustafaoglu. 1978. Forecasting political risk. Management Science, 24: 1557-67.
[19] Dunn, John. 1983. Country risk: Social and cultural aspects. In Richard J. Herring, editor, Managing international risk, 139-68. New York: Cambridge University Press.
[20] Fama, Eugene F. 1980. Agency problems and the theory of the firm. Journal of Political Economy, 88: 288-307.
[21] Fama, Eugene F & Michael C. Jensen. 1983. Separation of ownership and control. Journal of Law and Economics, 26: 301-25.
[22] Herring, Richard J., editor. 1983. Managing foreign exchange risk New York Cambridge University Press.
[23]唐闰春.公司财务分析的基本程序和方法,现代商贸工业.2009年01期
[24]鄢志娟.基于现金流量的企业财务危机预警系统分析.改革与战略. 2008年08期
[25]许亮.我国上市公司财务预警模型实证研究.同济大学.2007年
[26]邓敏.韩玉启.财务危机预警理论研究述评.商场现代化.2008年35
[27]Herbert Schildt著,周志彬,周建宁,章小莉.译Java2参考大全.北京:电子工业出版社,2003
[28]H.M.Deitel, P.J.Deitel著施平安,施惠琼,柳赐佳译Java程序设计教程(第5版)北京清华大学出版社,2004
[29]朱福喜.Java语言程序设计.北京.清华大学出版社,2005
[30]邝孔武、王晓敏.信息系统分析与设计.北京.清华大学出版社2006
[31]杨树林,胡洁萍Java语言最新实用案例教程.北京.清华大学出版社,2006
[32](美)Robert Vivira SQL Server 2005.编程入门经典(第2版).北京.清华大学出版社,2006
[33]刘颖.SQL Server 2005 .Transact-SQL编程入门经典.北京.清华大学出版社,2006
[34]Andrew J. Brust, Stephen Forte,Programming .Microsoft 2005,Microsoft Press.2006
[35]Bill Hamilton,Programming. SQL Server 2005, O’Reilly.2006