基于人工神经网络的区域物流需求预测及实证研究
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摘要
20世纪80年代中期以来,随着经济全球化和信息化进程的不断加快,物流业作为具有广阔前景和增值功能的新兴服务业,在全球范围内得以迅速发展。各国及地区纷纷将物流业作为重点发展产业,希望通过大力发展物流业来带动经济发展,改善投资环境,增加对外资的吸引,解决就业压力等等,但过快的增长容易造成物流实际供给能力与物流需求的不平衡,带来战略的失效或反作用。因此,本文欲通过对区域物流需求规模、结构以及它们的发展变化趋势进行分析及预测,以期能为区域规划者在制定区域物流产业政策、区域物流规划以及物流设施建设投资方面提供必要的基础数据和决策支持。
本文以国内外区域物流需求预测研究现状以及相关的理论知识为基础,研究区域物流需求预测。首先,在综述国内外研究的基础上确定了本文研究的目的意义及内容;接着,在介绍物流需求及其预测的理论知识的基础上,分析了物流需求的主要影响因素以及它们之间的相关性程度,并建立了区域物流需求预测的指标体系,包括区域经济指标和物流需求指标;然后,在介绍人工神经网络的基本理论的基础上,对人工神经网络应用于区域物流需求预测进行了可行性分析,利用BP神经网络建立了区域物流需求预测模型,并说明了模型的实现过程;最后,以上海市为例,通过前面建立的模型对上海市的物流需求规模和结构进行了定性和定量的预测分析。
通过分析及实证研究,本文认为区域物流需求与区域经济存在很强的相关性,它们之间的发展存在内在的逻辑性,这决定了可以利用经济水平来预测区域物流需求。由于BP神经网络具有强非线性映射能力,因此,它可以很好的揭示区域物流需求与区域经济两者之间的内在联系,并能得到很好的预测效果,从而为区域物流需求预测提供了一种较科学的方法。
With the economic globalization and informationlization accelerating continuously, the logistics as the new service industry that has broad prospects and value-added function has been developing rapidly throughout the world since the middle of 1980s.The countries and areas regard logistics as the significant industry to develop. They hope to boost the economy, improve the investment environment, attract increased foreign investment and lessen the employment pressure by developing logistics industry. However, the sudden growth of logistics may be lead to imbalance between the logistics supply and the actual logistics-demand. In order to provide the basic data and decision-making supports in drawing up logistics industry policy, planning and investment for the planners, the paper is going to analyze and forecast the scale of regional logistics demand, the structure of logistics demand and the developing trend of logistics demand.
The paper mainly study the problem how to predict the regional logistics demand, which is based on the forecasting research and related knowledge. Firstly, the article introduces the purpose and contents of this study. Secondly the paper based on the basic theory of regional logistics demand, analyzes the main factors and the correlation between them and sets up the demand forecast index system, including regional economic index and logistics demanding index. Thirdly, the paper based on the basic theory of artificial neural network (ANN), analyzes the feasibility of using ANN to forecast logistics demand, establishes ANN model for regional logistics demanding forecast and describes the process of implement. Finally the paper analyzes and forecasts the logistics demand of Shanghai by using quantitative forecast method and qualitative forecast method.
The important conclusion can be drawn from this research is that there is a strong correlation between regional logistics demand and regional economy level. The intrinsic logic relationship decides the regional logistics demand can be forecasted by using the economy level. Because BP neural network has a powerful non-liner mapping function, it can reveals the non-liner relationship between regional economy and logistics well and gets reasonable results. So the paper introduced a scientific tool and mean for regional logistics demand forecast.
本文以国内外区域物流需求预测研究现状以及相关的理论知识为基础,研究区域物流需求预测。首先,在综述国内外研究的基础上确定了本文研究的目的意义及内容;接着,在介绍物流需求及其预测的理论知识的基础上,分析了物流需求的主要影响因素以及它们之间的相关性程度,并建立了区域物流需求预测的指标体系,包括区域经济指标和物流需求指标;然后,在介绍人工神经网络的基本理论的基础上,对人工神经网络应用于区域物流需求预测进行了可行性分析,利用BP神经网络建立了区域物流需求预测模型,并说明了模型的实现过程;最后,以上海市为例,通过前面建立的模型对上海市的物流需求规模和结构进行了定性和定量的预测分析。
通过分析及实证研究,本文认为区域物流需求与区域经济存在很强的相关性,它们之间的发展存在内在的逻辑性,这决定了可以利用经济水平来预测区域物流需求。由于BP神经网络具有强非线性映射能力,因此,它可以很好的揭示区域物流需求与区域经济两者之间的内在联系,并能得到很好的预测效果,从而为区域物流需求预测提供了一种较科学的方法。
With the economic globalization and informationlization accelerating continuously, the logistics as the new service industry that has broad prospects and value-added function has been developing rapidly throughout the world since the middle of 1980s.The countries and areas regard logistics as the significant industry to develop. They hope to boost the economy, improve the investment environment, attract increased foreign investment and lessen the employment pressure by developing logistics industry. However, the sudden growth of logistics may be lead to imbalance between the logistics supply and the actual logistics-demand. In order to provide the basic data and decision-making supports in drawing up logistics industry policy, planning and investment for the planners, the paper is going to analyze and forecast the scale of regional logistics demand, the structure of logistics demand and the developing trend of logistics demand.
The paper mainly study the problem how to predict the regional logistics demand, which is based on the forecasting research and related knowledge. Firstly, the article introduces the purpose and contents of this study. Secondly the paper based on the basic theory of regional logistics demand, analyzes the main factors and the correlation between them and sets up the demand forecast index system, including regional economic index and logistics demanding index. Thirdly, the paper based on the basic theory of artificial neural network (ANN), analyzes the feasibility of using ANN to forecast logistics demand, establishes ANN model for regional logistics demanding forecast and describes the process of implement. Finally the paper analyzes and forecasts the logistics demand of Shanghai by using quantitative forecast method and qualitative forecast method.
The important conclusion can be drawn from this research is that there is a strong correlation between regional logistics demand and regional economy level. The intrinsic logic relationship decides the regional logistics demand can be forecasted by using the economy level. Because BP neural network has a powerful non-liner mapping function, it can reveals the non-liner relationship between regional economy and logistics well and gets reasonable results. So the paper introduced a scientific tool and mean for regional logistics demand forecast.
引文
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1 Kisperska-Moronl,Danuta.Logistics Change During the Transition Period in the Polish Economy.Proceedings of the 7th International Symposium on Inventories,Aug 1992,Audapest,Hung
2 Joel Honeyman,Matt Titus,Jason AarAer.A Logistics Support Program for Rural Economic Development.Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute,North Dakota State University,August,1996
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4 Mudit Kulshreshtha,Aarnali Nag,Mukul Kulshrestha. A Multivariate Cointegrating Vector Auto-regressive Model of Freight Transport Demand:Evidence from Indian Railways.Transportation Research Part A,2001,29~45
5 Greg Tkacz.Nerual Network Forecasting of Canadian GDP Growth.International Journal of Forecasting. 2001.VOl.17.No.1:57~69
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7 Donald F.W.,James C.J.Contemporary Transportation.New York: Macmillan Publishing, 1993:3~7
8 Michael W.Babcock,XiaohuaLu,Jerry Norton.Time Series Forecasting of Quarterly Railroad Grain Carload-ings.Transportation Research, 1999,partE35(1999):43~57
9 Rodrigo A,Garrido,Hani S.Mahmassani.Forecasting Freight Transportation Demand with the Space-time Multinomial ProAit Model.Transportation Research Part A,2000,403~418
10 Bahram Adrangi,Arjun Chatrath,Kambiz Raffiee.The Demand for US Air Transport Service: A Chaos and Nonlinearity Investigation.Transportation Research, 2001,PartEVbl.37:337~353
11 Mlehaelw,Babeoek,XiaohuaLu.Forecasting Inland Waterway Grain Traffic.Transportation Research, 2002 PartE 38:65~74
12 Makridakis,Winkler.Forecasting Freight Transportation Demand with the Space-time Multinomial ProAit Model.Transportation Research Part A,1983,403~418
13王培良.物流热中勿忘物流需求分析.国际经贸消息物流周刊, 2000, (2):28
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15孙飞波.物流市场需求预测研究.江西财经大学, 2006
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21张鹏.基于神经网络的预测方法及其在物流系统中的应用研究.武汉理工大学, 2002
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30孙建丰,向小东.基于灰色线性回归组合模型的物流需求预测研究.工业技术经济, 2007
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78林荣天.基于灰色神经网络的区域物流需求预测.价值工程, 2007,(2):92~94
79后锐,张毕西.基于MLP神经网络的区域物流需求预测方法及其应用.系统工程理论与实践, 2005,(12):43~47
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23林荣天,陈联诚,李绍静,黄灏然.基于灰色神经网络的区域物流需求预测.价值工程,2 007
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26汤俊,肖俊华.区域物流需求预测的LaOR方法.商业研究,2007
27黄虎,蒋葛夫,严余松,廖百胜,厦国恩.基于支持向量回归机的区域物流需求预测模型及其应用.计算机应用研究, 2008
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36刘静.关于物流需求的研究[D],大连海事大学, 2006
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26汤俊,肖俊华.区域物流需求预测的LaOR方法.商业研究, 2007
27黄虎,蒋葛夫,严余松,廖百胜,厦国恩.基于支持向量回归机的区域物流需求预测模型及其应用.计算机应用研究, 2008
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34王国华.中国现代物流大全·现代物流总论,北京:中国铁道出版社, 2004
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