基于响应时间的供应链决策与监控研究
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摘要
随着市场竞争加剧及需求不确定性增大,企业的成功越来越取决于其对客户订单的响应能力,企业之间的竞争逐渐从过去的基于品种、价格、质量竞争转为基于时间竞争模式。尤其是在定制生产模式下,客户需求对响应时间十分敏感。同时,由于市场环境的变化,单个企业难以在激烈的市场竞争中生存,使得企业之间的竞争转变成供应链之间的竞争。为了保持竞争力,供应链必须尽可能地降低运作成本并同时改善对顾客的服务质量。因此缩短产品的市场响应时间是供应链管理总体目标之一。正是在这样的背景下,本文对基于响应时间的供应链决策与监控问题的研究,对于认清基于时间竞争策略对供应链运作的影响,找出能够使供应链和企业都实现最大收益的响应时间决策模式和收益分配模式,有效缩短响应时间,提高供应链竞争力具有十分重要的理论价值和现实意义。
本文从基于缩短响应时间的供应链重构、响应时间决策、供应链收益分配、供应链响应时间监控四个侧面,通过定性化分析和定量化建模较为全面系统地研究了基于响应时间的供应链决策与监控问题。本文的主要内容如下:
(1)基于缩短响应时间的供应链建模研究。首先分析了传统供应链面临的问题与挑战,提出了用供应链重构来缩短响应时间以适应市场变化。接着在对供应链响应时间影响因素进行分析的基础上,提出了缩短供应链响应时间的方法。最后构建了信息协调型供应链模型,以实现基于响应时间下的供应链运作。
(2)时间敏感型需求下的供应链响应时间决策模型及其决策分析。在对供应链响应时间进行概念界定的基础上,对供应链响应时间决策过程进行建模研究。首先分析了在一个由制造商和分销商组成的两阶供应链中,在分散决策和集中决策两种模式下的决策过程。通过对两个决策模型的最优性分析和供应链整体收益比较,得到了能够实现整体收益最大化的决策模式。接着对响应时间影响因素进行了敏感度分析,研究了他们对供应链最优决策结果的影响。进一步,还分析了承诺响应时间在供应链运作中的作用,以及价格对响应时间敏感时的供应链响应时间决策。
(3)基于响应时间的供应链收益分配模型及其决策分析。在对供应链收益分配概念进行界定的基础上,对供应链收益分配问题进行建模研究。分别研究了三种决策模式下的收益分配方法,并结合企业实例进行数值分析。在分散决策模式下,分析了供应链中存在的双重边际化效应,以及各种影响因素对供应链收益分配比例的影响;同时还分析了集中决策模式下收益分配机制必须满足的约束条件;最后重点研究了协调决策模式下供应链中的收益分配,找到了两种可行的收益分配机制。
(4)基于时间竞争下的供应链响应时间监控体系研究。首先,运用灰色灾变理论,构建了响应时间灾变预测模型;接着运用统计过程控制和有限状态机理论,构建了基于有限状态机的供应链响应时间实时监控系统;最后将传统上质量控制中的统计控制原理创造性地运用到响应时间控制中来,找到了合适的响应时间控制的控制界限和规格界限,以及实施方法。通过三种方法从预警控制、实时控制、反馈控制三个角度建立了全过程全系统的响应时间监控体系。
最后,论文对全文的工作予以了总结和展望。
With the intensifying of market competition and the increasing of demand uncertainty, the success of an enterprise becomes more depend on the quick response to customer orders, and the competition between enterprises has changed from traditional competition based on variety, price or quality to Time-based competition (TBC). Especially in Customized Production (CP), customer demands are very sensitive to response time. At the same time, the change of market environment makes it difficult for an individual enterprise to survive; therefore, competition mode has shifted from the competition among enterprises to the competition among supply chains. To maintain the ability to compete, supply chain is required to reduce the cost of operation and improve service quality to customer. Under such circumstances, the study on the problem of supply chain decision and monitoring and controlling based on response time has great significance in both theory and practice to realize the effect of TBC strategy on the operation of supply chain, to find out the decision mode of response time and profit allocation mode that can make both the supply chain and individual enterprise realize the most benefit, to reduce response time effectively, and to improve the competitive ability of supply chain.
This research investigates systematically the problem on supply chain decision and monitoring and controlling based on response time from the following four aspects, that is, supply chain reconstruction based on response time reduction, decision of response time, profit allocation of supply chain, monitoring and controlling of response time of supply chain. The methods of qualitative analysis and quantitative modeling are adopted in the whole process. The main content includes:
(1) A study on modeling supply chain based on response time reduction.
Firstly this research analyzes the problems and challenges that traditional supply chains are confronted with, and presents the reconstruction of supply chain to reduce response time so as to adapt to the market change. Then, through analyzing those factors that affect supply chain response time, several methods are put forward to shorten supply chain response time. At last Information Harmonized Supply Chain (IHSC) is modeled to realize the operation of supply chain based on response time.
(2) Decision model of supply chain response time and decision analysis under time-sensitive demand. After exactly defining the supply chain response time, the decision-making process of response time is modeled. At first, the decision-making processes are analyzed separately in decentralized decision mode and centralized decision mode, and in a supply chain that is composed of a manufacturer and a distributor. Through optimal analyzing and comparing whole benefits of supply chain in that two decision models, the mode is found to achieve the most whole benefits. Then a sensitivity analysis upon influencing factors of supply chain response time is made, and the research of their effects on optimal decision result of supply chain is also conducted. Further more, several aspects are discussed, such as, the role of promised response time in the operation of supply chain, and response time decision under the circumstances of pricing based on response time.
(3) Profit allocation model of supply chain and decision analysis based on response time. On the basis of defining profit allocation of supply chain, the study is conducted on the problem of supply chain profit allocation by means of modeling. The research is also made on the methods of profit allocation in three decision modes separately, and a numerical analysis combined with a real example is presented. Firstly both the double-marginal effect which occurs in supply chain and impact on the profit allocation proportion by various influencing factors in decentralized decision mode are analyzed. Then the constraints that the mechanism of profit allocation must meet in centralized decision mode are analyzed. At last, emphasis is put on the study of supply chain profit allocation in cooperative decision mode, and two feasible mechanisms of profit allocation are found.
(4) The monitoring and controlling system of supply chain response time in time-based competition. Firstly the grey calamity prediction model of supply chain response time based on grey calamity theory is established. Then through applying theories of statistical process control and finite state machine, a real-time monitoring and controlling system of supply chain response time based on finite state machine is made. Lastly the theory of statistical control that is traditionally used in quality control is utilized in controlling response time in a creative way to get proper control limit and specification limit of response time and the right methods to put into effect. Thus we get a full-system and full-process monitoring and controlling system of supply chain response time by using three methods from three various aspects that is predictive control, real-time control and feedback control.
The final chapter of the dissertation concludes the entire dissertation and describes the directions of the future research.
本文从基于缩短响应时间的供应链重构、响应时间决策、供应链收益分配、供应链响应时间监控四个侧面,通过定性化分析和定量化建模较为全面系统地研究了基于响应时间的供应链决策与监控问题。本文的主要内容如下:
(1)基于缩短响应时间的供应链建模研究。首先分析了传统供应链面临的问题与挑战,提出了用供应链重构来缩短响应时间以适应市场变化。接着在对供应链响应时间影响因素进行分析的基础上,提出了缩短供应链响应时间的方法。最后构建了信息协调型供应链模型,以实现基于响应时间下的供应链运作。
(2)时间敏感型需求下的供应链响应时间决策模型及其决策分析。在对供应链响应时间进行概念界定的基础上,对供应链响应时间决策过程进行建模研究。首先分析了在一个由制造商和分销商组成的两阶供应链中,在分散决策和集中决策两种模式下的决策过程。通过对两个决策模型的最优性分析和供应链整体收益比较,得到了能够实现整体收益最大化的决策模式。接着对响应时间影响因素进行了敏感度分析,研究了他们对供应链最优决策结果的影响。进一步,还分析了承诺响应时间在供应链运作中的作用,以及价格对响应时间敏感时的供应链响应时间决策。
(3)基于响应时间的供应链收益分配模型及其决策分析。在对供应链收益分配概念进行界定的基础上,对供应链收益分配问题进行建模研究。分别研究了三种决策模式下的收益分配方法,并结合企业实例进行数值分析。在分散决策模式下,分析了供应链中存在的双重边际化效应,以及各种影响因素对供应链收益分配比例的影响;同时还分析了集中决策模式下收益分配机制必须满足的约束条件;最后重点研究了协调决策模式下供应链中的收益分配,找到了两种可行的收益分配机制。
(4)基于时间竞争下的供应链响应时间监控体系研究。首先,运用灰色灾变理论,构建了响应时间灾变预测模型;接着运用统计过程控制和有限状态机理论,构建了基于有限状态机的供应链响应时间实时监控系统;最后将传统上质量控制中的统计控制原理创造性地运用到响应时间控制中来,找到了合适的响应时间控制的控制界限和规格界限,以及实施方法。通过三种方法从预警控制、实时控制、反馈控制三个角度建立了全过程全系统的响应时间监控体系。
最后,论文对全文的工作予以了总结和展望。
With the intensifying of market competition and the increasing of demand uncertainty, the success of an enterprise becomes more depend on the quick response to customer orders, and the competition between enterprises has changed from traditional competition based on variety, price or quality to Time-based competition (TBC). Especially in Customized Production (CP), customer demands are very sensitive to response time. At the same time, the change of market environment makes it difficult for an individual enterprise to survive; therefore, competition mode has shifted from the competition among enterprises to the competition among supply chains. To maintain the ability to compete, supply chain is required to reduce the cost of operation and improve service quality to customer. Under such circumstances, the study on the problem of supply chain decision and monitoring and controlling based on response time has great significance in both theory and practice to realize the effect of TBC strategy on the operation of supply chain, to find out the decision mode of response time and profit allocation mode that can make both the supply chain and individual enterprise realize the most benefit, to reduce response time effectively, and to improve the competitive ability of supply chain.
This research investigates systematically the problem on supply chain decision and monitoring and controlling based on response time from the following four aspects, that is, supply chain reconstruction based on response time reduction, decision of response time, profit allocation of supply chain, monitoring and controlling of response time of supply chain. The methods of qualitative analysis and quantitative modeling are adopted in the whole process. The main content includes:
(1) A study on modeling supply chain based on response time reduction.
Firstly this research analyzes the problems and challenges that traditional supply chains are confronted with, and presents the reconstruction of supply chain to reduce response time so as to adapt to the market change. Then, through analyzing those factors that affect supply chain response time, several methods are put forward to shorten supply chain response time. At last Information Harmonized Supply Chain (IHSC) is modeled to realize the operation of supply chain based on response time.
(2) Decision model of supply chain response time and decision analysis under time-sensitive demand. After exactly defining the supply chain response time, the decision-making process of response time is modeled. At first, the decision-making processes are analyzed separately in decentralized decision mode and centralized decision mode, and in a supply chain that is composed of a manufacturer and a distributor. Through optimal analyzing and comparing whole benefits of supply chain in that two decision models, the mode is found to achieve the most whole benefits. Then a sensitivity analysis upon influencing factors of supply chain response time is made, and the research of their effects on optimal decision result of supply chain is also conducted. Further more, several aspects are discussed, such as, the role of promised response time in the operation of supply chain, and response time decision under the circumstances of pricing based on response time.
(3) Profit allocation model of supply chain and decision analysis based on response time. On the basis of defining profit allocation of supply chain, the study is conducted on the problem of supply chain profit allocation by means of modeling. The research is also made on the methods of profit allocation in three decision modes separately, and a numerical analysis combined with a real example is presented. Firstly both the double-marginal effect which occurs in supply chain and impact on the profit allocation proportion by various influencing factors in decentralized decision mode are analyzed. Then the constraints that the mechanism of profit allocation must meet in centralized decision mode are analyzed. At last, emphasis is put on the study of supply chain profit allocation in cooperative decision mode, and two feasible mechanisms of profit allocation are found.
(4) The monitoring and controlling system of supply chain response time in time-based competition. Firstly the grey calamity prediction model of supply chain response time based on grey calamity theory is established. Then through applying theories of statistical process control and finite state machine, a real-time monitoring and controlling system of supply chain response time based on finite state machine is made. Lastly the theory of statistical control that is traditionally used in quality control is utilized in controlling response time in a creative way to get proper control limit and specification limit of response time and the right methods to put into effect. Thus we get a full-system and full-process monitoring and controlling system of supply chain response time by using three methods from three various aspects that is predictive control, real-time control and feedback control.
The final chapter of the dissertation concludes the entire dissertation and describes the directions of the future research.
引文
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