热带大气季节内振荡的数值模拟研究
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摘要
目前全球大气环流模式(AGCM)对热带大气季节内振荡(Intraseasonal Oscillation,简称ISO)的模拟还不理想。如何能在AGCM中再现真实的热带大气ISO仍然没有得到很好的解决,本文对这一问题做了一些探讨,同时针对热带ISO这样一个重要科学问题对AGCM的评价不但对于加深我们对热带大气ISO的理解,而且对于改进气候模式的性能都有重要的意义。本论文基于观测资料和不同AGCM模拟结果的误差分析,首先揭示了大气ISO在气候模拟中的重要性。进一步又对观测和模式模拟的热带ISO的基本特征进行对比分析,通过研究同一动力框架下不同对流参数化方案模拟的热带ISO的差异,分析了热带ISO的模拟对积云对流参数化方案的敏感性,尤其研究了非绝热加热垂直廓线的重要作用,揭示出模式模拟热带ISO差异的主要原因。其次,还对ISO北传和季节性特征进行了分析;另外,还研究了模式分辨率对热带大气ISO模拟的影响。最后,研究了热带ISO的模拟对积云参数化方案中积云动量垂直输送的敏感性。本文的数值模拟结果与已有的一些关于热带ISO的动力学分析研究结果十分一致。全文主要得到以下结论:
1.对利用AGCM进行气候模拟而言,大气ISO的模拟误差对整个模拟的误差有极大的影响。由大气ISO的模拟造成的均方根误差可以占到整个模拟误差的30-40%,而且大气ISO模拟均方根误差的空间分布形势与整个模拟的均方根误差空间分布形势十分相似。本研究进一步说明,改善对ISO的模拟对于提高模式的模拟乃至预报性能有重要的意义。
2.AGCM对热大气ISO的模拟对积云对流参数化有很强的敏感性,当改变积云参数化方案时模式对热带ISO的模拟会受到很大影响。而不同参数化方案产生的不同的非绝热加热垂直廓线可能是参数化方案影响模式对热带ISO模拟能力的主要原因之一。当最大加热层位于对流层中低层时可能更利于模式模拟出东传的季节内扰动信号,而当最大加热位于对流层高层时,更易于激发出西传的扰动,因而对流层中低层的最大加热可能对真实模拟热带ISO有更重要的作用。这一结果不仅有创新性,而且与已有的关于ISO动力学分析的结果也比较一致,对于改善目前AGCM对热带ISO的模拟和进一步加深我们对热带ISO的动力学理解有
Simulation of the observed tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation (hereafter ISO) feature by atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) has been problematic in present. How to improve the ability of AGCM to simulate the tropical ISO is studied, meanwhile, assessment of the ability of AGCM to represent the oscillation is helpful for our further understanding its dynamics and may also help to improve the ability of AGCM. In this paper, the importance of the ISO in climate simulation is analyzed based on the root-mean square errors analysis on different GCM’s results, firstly, and then, The sensitive of the simulated tropical ISO to cumulus paraterizations is studied using a single model with different cumulus schemes, and influences of diabatic heating profile are discussed ,especially. Other features of the tropical ISO, for instance, the Northward propagation of the ISO and its seasonality are also studied. Influences of changes in model resolution on the simulated oscillation are also studied in this paper. At last, impacts of convective momentum transport on the oscillation are assessed. Main results are summarized as followed:
1. In terms of climate simulation using AGCM, simulation of Intraseasonal oscillation has important impact on the whole simulation. Root-mean square errors (RMSE) from the simulation of intrapersonal oscillation can take 30-40 percent of the total RMSE, meanwhile, the distributions of RMSE from simulated the intraseasonal oscillation are almost identical with the distribution of the total RMSE. This study further shows the significance of improving the ability of simulating the tropical ISO for climate simulation.
2. Performance of AGCM in simulating the tropical ISO is highly sensitive to
1.对利用AGCM进行气候模拟而言,大气ISO的模拟误差对整个模拟的误差有极大的影响。由大气ISO的模拟造成的均方根误差可以占到整个模拟误差的30-40%,而且大气ISO模拟均方根误差的空间分布形势与整个模拟的均方根误差空间分布形势十分相似。本研究进一步说明,改善对ISO的模拟对于提高模式的模拟乃至预报性能有重要的意义。
2.AGCM对热大气ISO的模拟对积云对流参数化有很强的敏感性,当改变积云参数化方案时模式对热带ISO的模拟会受到很大影响。而不同参数化方案产生的不同的非绝热加热垂直廓线可能是参数化方案影响模式对热带ISO模拟能力的主要原因之一。当最大加热层位于对流层中低层时可能更利于模式模拟出东传的季节内扰动信号,而当最大加热位于对流层高层时,更易于激发出西传的扰动,因而对流层中低层的最大加热可能对真实模拟热带ISO有更重要的作用。这一结果不仅有创新性,而且与已有的关于ISO动力学分析的结果也比较一致,对于改善目前AGCM对热带ISO的模拟和进一步加深我们对热带ISO的动力学理解有
Simulation of the observed tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation (hereafter ISO) feature by atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) has been problematic in present. How to improve the ability of AGCM to simulate the tropical ISO is studied, meanwhile, assessment of the ability of AGCM to represent the oscillation is helpful for our further understanding its dynamics and may also help to improve the ability of AGCM. In this paper, the importance of the ISO in climate simulation is analyzed based on the root-mean square errors analysis on different GCM’s results, firstly, and then, The sensitive of the simulated tropical ISO to cumulus paraterizations is studied using a single model with different cumulus schemes, and influences of diabatic heating profile are discussed ,especially. Other features of the tropical ISO, for instance, the Northward propagation of the ISO and its seasonality are also studied. Influences of changes in model resolution on the simulated oscillation are also studied in this paper. At last, impacts of convective momentum transport on the oscillation are assessed. Main results are summarized as followed:
1. In terms of climate simulation using AGCM, simulation of Intraseasonal oscillation has important impact on the whole simulation. Root-mean square errors (RMSE) from the simulation of intrapersonal oscillation can take 30-40 percent of the total RMSE, meanwhile, the distributions of RMSE from simulated the intraseasonal oscillation are almost identical with the distribution of the total RMSE. This study further shows the significance of improving the ability of simulating the tropical ISO for climate simulation.
2. Performance of AGCM in simulating the tropical ISO is highly sensitive to
引文
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