铁路防洪应急物资优化布局及调配研究
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摘要
随着《中长期铁路网规划》的实施和高速铁路的快速发展,未来我国铁路路网规模更大、行车度速更快、路网运输能力更强,这就对铁路突发事件的风险防范和应急管理提出了更高的要求。在铁路突发事件中,铁路水害一直是困扰我国铁路运输的难题之一,每年都给铁路运输带来巨大损失。由于对铁路突发事件应急物资管理研究的缺乏,当前我国铁路运输单位主要按经验进行防洪应急物资储备和调配,存在储备点布局、物资的数量结构不合理、不经济等问题,物资调配过程缺乏科学的理论和方法指导,严重影响了救援工作的开展和应急管理效率的提高。因此,针对铁路防洪应急物资优化布局及调配等问题进行研究成为了一个紧迫而重要的课题。
本文从铁路水害突发事件应急管理需求出发,结合铁路水害应急管理的独特性,运用应急管理理论、设施选址理论、物资管理理论及SPSS统计分析方法、MATLAB运算工具,对铁路防洪应急物资储备网络选址优化、应急物资储备方式及存贮模型、应急物资调配优化进行了系统的研究,实现了研究视角及研究内容的创新。
针对铁路防洪应急物资储备网络选址优化研究,论文在深入分析铁路防洪应急物资的储备模式和应急响应模式的基础上,结合铁路应急储备网络点覆盖线的独特性,首先构建了分别考虑物资供应段和工务段物资储备点选址的二阶选址模型。模型综合考虑了集合覆盖、尽量利用已有物资储备点,以使费用最少、风险防备最大化以及物资供应段储备点距离工务物资储备点的最大距离最小化等因素,符合铁路防洪实际需求。其次,论文将物资供应段储备点、其所负责供应的工务应急物资储备点以及应急点之间的日常及应急物资流看作一个多层的物资流系统,基于P—中值模型建立了考虑平战结合的铁路防洪应急物资储备网络选址模型。
铁路防洪应急物资储备研究方面,建立了基于综合重要性的铁路防洪应急物资分类评价指标体系,创建了基于模糊理论及聚类分析的应急物资分类方法,进而根据不同的物资类别,明确给出合理的储备方式选择策略。针对工务及物资段应急物资存贮问题,建立了基于改进(s,S)策略的工务防洪应急物资存贮模型、存贮系统随机存贮模型(将物资供应段及其所负责供应的工务应急物资储备点视为一个存贮系统,以整个存贮系统最优为目标)以及基于EOQ思想的物资供应段应急物资随机存贮模型。
在应急物资调配研究方面,提出利用案例推理技术与情景分析相结合进行应急物资需求预测的方法和步骤。建立了单物资、多物资公铁联合调配多目标规划模型。对于单物资调配问题,建立了满足应急时间最短(应急限制期)的前提下,如何选择出救点、出救物资数量及运输方式,以使出救点数目及运输费用最小的单物资公铁联合调配多目标模型；在多物资调配方面,考虑了满足重要性程度不同物资的应急需求,如何选择出救点、出救物资数量及运输方式,以使出救点最少、总调配成本最小的多物资公铁联合调配多目标模型,设计了求解算法。
最后,论文以某铁路局为例进行实证分析,验证了研究结果的有效性,为铁路局防洪应急物资优化布局及科学调配提供理论依据。
研究成果将推进铁路应急管理理论研究,对提高铁路运输企业应急物资科学化管理和决策水平,进而提升我国铁路运输企业应对水害乃至各类突发事件的能力和效率具有参考和借鉴价值。
With the implementation of Middle-and-long-term railway network planning and fast development of high-speed railway, the railway network will develop more rapidly, speed will be faster, and the transport capacity will be stronger in the future. All these put forward higher request to the railway risk prevention and emergency management. In railway emergencies, water disaster has been one of the troubled problems in railway transportation in china, and brought heavy loss every year. Due to the lack of study on emergency supplies of railway management in China, in current, the railway administrations reserve and dispatch the flood emergency materials according to experience mainly. So there exist some problems. For example, the layout of the reserves location and the structure and number of the reserved materials are unreasonable and uneconomical, and the materials dispatching processes have no instruction of scientific theories and methods, which have seriously affected the conduction of rescue operations and emergency management efficiency. Consequently, studying on the railway flood prevention materials reserves network location, material storage and emergency materials dispatching becomes an urgent and important issue.
This paper starts from needs of water disaster emergency management on the railway, combining with the unique nature of water disaster emergency management on the railway, through the use of emergency management theory, facility location theory, material management theory and statistical analysis software SPSS, MATLAB computing tools, to study the emergency supplies reserve network location and optimization of the dispatching of emergency supplies in system, achieving a research perspective and research object innovation.
In the study of reserve network location optimization of railway flood prevention emergency supplies, firstly, by separately considering material-supply section, and track district, the two-stage material reserve location model is established, based on the deep analysis of the railway emergency materials reserve mode, emergency response models and the uniqueness of railway line emergency network points. The model makes full consideration of a set cover, making full use of existing material storage point to make the least-cost, maximize the risk preparedness and the minimize distance between the material supply reserve point and track district material storage point, and so on, meeting the actual needs of the railway flood. Secondly, the paper combines the material-supply section reserve point, track district material storage point which is responsible for it, the daily flow of emergency supplies and materials between the reserve points as a multi-flow system, using the P-value model to establish the emergency material storage location model which considers the guideline of daily and emergency in the railway flood control, and solves the works and supplies of emergency material storage location of the network optimization problem perfectly.
In the study of flood emergency supplies methods and inventory model in the railway reserve, firstly, it should classify the flood emergency supplies based on comprehensive importance, establish the evaluation index system of classification, and create a cluster classification method based on fuzzy theory and classification of emergency supplies, then according to different categories of goods, given clear and reasonable way of reserve selection strategies. Then, for the problem of track district and material-supply section storage, the storage model of flood control emergency supplies based on the (s, S) strategy and the storage system stochastic inventory model (considering the material-supply section and the track district emergency supplies point which is responsible for the supply as a storage system are established, and these models take the best of the entire storage system as target), and emergency supplies stochastic inventory model based on EOQ thought.
In the study of the deployment of emergency supplies, the combination of case-based reasoning technology and scenario analysis to forecast the requirements of emergency supplies is creatively put forward, and the sound forecasting methods and steps are established, making the forecast result meeting actual demand. On this basis, a single material, multi-material dispatching multi-objective programming model is further put forward. For the dispatching of a single-material, a multi-objective model based on meeting the emergency (emergency restriction period) under the premise of how to choose alternative points, the number of the saved material and transport method is established, which can make the alternative points less, the total deployment cost minimum, and the algorithm is also designed. For the dispatching of multi-materials, on base of satisfying the requirement of emergency time limit of different materials, the model achieves the objectives of minimum number of selected depots and minimum cost of dispatching. Then the solution procedure and algorithm of the model is designed.
Finally, taking XX railway administration as an example, empirical analysis is performed.
The results of this paper have important significance to advance the theory of railway emergency management, improve the scientific management and decision-making level, thus enhance emergency management capacities of railway transport enterprise on water damage, even on all types of emergencies.
本文从铁路水害突发事件应急管理需求出发,结合铁路水害应急管理的独特性,运用应急管理理论、设施选址理论、物资管理理论及SPSS统计分析方法、MATLAB运算工具,对铁路防洪应急物资储备网络选址优化、应急物资储备方式及存贮模型、应急物资调配优化进行了系统的研究,实现了研究视角及研究内容的创新。
针对铁路防洪应急物资储备网络选址优化研究,论文在深入分析铁路防洪应急物资的储备模式和应急响应模式的基础上,结合铁路应急储备网络点覆盖线的独特性,首先构建了分别考虑物资供应段和工务段物资储备点选址的二阶选址模型。模型综合考虑了集合覆盖、尽量利用已有物资储备点,以使费用最少、风险防备最大化以及物资供应段储备点距离工务物资储备点的最大距离最小化等因素,符合铁路防洪实际需求。其次,论文将物资供应段储备点、其所负责供应的工务应急物资储备点以及应急点之间的日常及应急物资流看作一个多层的物资流系统,基于P—中值模型建立了考虑平战结合的铁路防洪应急物资储备网络选址模型。
铁路防洪应急物资储备研究方面,建立了基于综合重要性的铁路防洪应急物资分类评价指标体系,创建了基于模糊理论及聚类分析的应急物资分类方法,进而根据不同的物资类别,明确给出合理的储备方式选择策略。针对工务及物资段应急物资存贮问题,建立了基于改进(s,S)策略的工务防洪应急物资存贮模型、存贮系统随机存贮模型(将物资供应段及其所负责供应的工务应急物资储备点视为一个存贮系统,以整个存贮系统最优为目标)以及基于EOQ思想的物资供应段应急物资随机存贮模型。
在应急物资调配研究方面,提出利用案例推理技术与情景分析相结合进行应急物资需求预测的方法和步骤。建立了单物资、多物资公铁联合调配多目标规划模型。对于单物资调配问题,建立了满足应急时间最短(应急限制期)的前提下,如何选择出救点、出救物资数量及运输方式,以使出救点数目及运输费用最小的单物资公铁联合调配多目标模型；在多物资调配方面,考虑了满足重要性程度不同物资的应急需求,如何选择出救点、出救物资数量及运输方式,以使出救点最少、总调配成本最小的多物资公铁联合调配多目标模型,设计了求解算法。
最后,论文以某铁路局为例进行实证分析,验证了研究结果的有效性,为铁路局防洪应急物资优化布局及科学调配提供理论依据。
研究成果将推进铁路应急管理理论研究,对提高铁路运输企业应急物资科学化管理和决策水平,进而提升我国铁路运输企业应对水害乃至各类突发事件的能力和效率具有参考和借鉴价值。
With the implementation of Middle-and-long-term railway network planning and fast development of high-speed railway, the railway network will develop more rapidly, speed will be faster, and the transport capacity will be stronger in the future. All these put forward higher request to the railway risk prevention and emergency management. In railway emergencies, water disaster has been one of the troubled problems in railway transportation in china, and brought heavy loss every year. Due to the lack of study on emergency supplies of railway management in China, in current, the railway administrations reserve and dispatch the flood emergency materials according to experience mainly. So there exist some problems. For example, the layout of the reserves location and the structure and number of the reserved materials are unreasonable and uneconomical, and the materials dispatching processes have no instruction of scientific theories and methods, which have seriously affected the conduction of rescue operations and emergency management efficiency. Consequently, studying on the railway flood prevention materials reserves network location, material storage and emergency materials dispatching becomes an urgent and important issue.
This paper starts from needs of water disaster emergency management on the railway, combining with the unique nature of water disaster emergency management on the railway, through the use of emergency management theory, facility location theory, material management theory and statistical analysis software SPSS, MATLAB computing tools, to study the emergency supplies reserve network location and optimization of the dispatching of emergency supplies in system, achieving a research perspective and research object innovation.
In the study of reserve network location optimization of railway flood prevention emergency supplies, firstly, by separately considering material-supply section, and track district, the two-stage material reserve location model is established, based on the deep analysis of the railway emergency materials reserve mode, emergency response models and the uniqueness of railway line emergency network points. The model makes full consideration of a set cover, making full use of existing material storage point to make the least-cost, maximize the risk preparedness and the minimize distance between the material supply reserve point and track district material storage point, and so on, meeting the actual needs of the railway flood. Secondly, the paper combines the material-supply section reserve point, track district material storage point which is responsible for it, the daily flow of emergency supplies and materials between the reserve points as a multi-flow system, using the P-value model to establish the emergency material storage location model which considers the guideline of daily and emergency in the railway flood control, and solves the works and supplies of emergency material storage location of the network optimization problem perfectly.
In the study of flood emergency supplies methods and inventory model in the railway reserve, firstly, it should classify the flood emergency supplies based on comprehensive importance, establish the evaluation index system of classification, and create a cluster classification method based on fuzzy theory and classification of emergency supplies, then according to different categories of goods, given clear and reasonable way of reserve selection strategies. Then, for the problem of track district and material-supply section storage, the storage model of flood control emergency supplies based on the (s, S) strategy and the storage system stochastic inventory model (considering the material-supply section and the track district emergency supplies point which is responsible for the supply as a storage system are established, and these models take the best of the entire storage system as target), and emergency supplies stochastic inventory model based on EOQ thought.
In the study of the deployment of emergency supplies, the combination of case-based reasoning technology and scenario analysis to forecast the requirements of emergency supplies is creatively put forward, and the sound forecasting methods and steps are established, making the forecast result meeting actual demand. On this basis, a single material, multi-material dispatching multi-objective programming model is further put forward. For the dispatching of a single-material, a multi-objective model based on meeting the emergency (emergency restriction period) under the premise of how to choose alternative points, the number of the saved material and transport method is established, which can make the alternative points less, the total deployment cost minimum, and the algorithm is also designed. For the dispatching of multi-materials, on base of satisfying the requirement of emergency time limit of different materials, the model achieves the objectives of minimum number of selected depots and minimum cost of dispatching. Then the solution procedure and algorithm of the model is designed.
Finally, taking XX railway administration as an example, empirical analysis is performed.
The results of this paper have important significance to advance the theory of railway emergency management, improve the scientific management and decision-making level, thus enhance emergency management capacities of railway transport enterprise on water damage, even on all types of emergencies.
引文
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