我国风暴潮灾害经济风险区划
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摘要
我国是典型的海洋大国,由于特殊的地理位置及历史原因,沿海地区是我国人口密度最高、财产分布最密集、社会经济最发达的地区。但随着海洋的开发和经济的迅速发展,海洋灾害已成为对沿海地区未来社会经济发展影响最大的自然灾害之一。其中,风暴潮灾害的发生次数是最多的,也是导致经济损失最严重的。
论文在风暴潮灾害相关知识梳理基础上,界定风暴潮经济风险区划的定义,明确风暴潮灾害经济风险区划的目的和原则,并对我国风暴潮灾害现状进行分析。通过对风暴潮灾害经济风险的要素分析,建立风暴潮灾害经济风险区划指标体系。基于“四维一体”联合决策理论测度模型和层次聚类法对我国沿海地区风暴潮灾害进行经济风险区划,研究不同沿海地区面临完全相同的风暴潮灾害情况下的可能产生的经济损失差异,同时选取青岛市为典型地区进行风暴潮灾害经济风险区划实证分析。论文得到主要结论如下。
论文通过对影响风暴潮灾害经济风险的要素(承灾体易损性、风暴潮灾害危险性、防灾减灾能力)的分析,利用“目的树”方法构建了包含3个一级指标,22个二级指标的风暴潮灾害经济风险区划指标体系。创造性地将三种客观评价方法(熵值法、灰色关联度法、主成分分析法)和一种主观评价方法(层次分析法),与Kendall一致性检验相结合,构建了“四维一体”联合决策理论测度模型进行风暴潮灾害经济风险测度,保证了评价结果的准确性和一致性。
论文基于层次聚类法对我国沿海11省市(不包括香港、澳门、台湾)进行风暴潮灾害经济风险区划。研究结果将我国沿海地区划分为四类,分别是：高经济风险区：福建省、广东省和浙江省；较高经济风险区：上海市；中经济风险区：海南省、广西壮族自治区、山东省和辽宁省；低经济风险区：天津市、江苏省和河北省。区划结果为沿海地区,尤其是频繁遭受风暴潮灾害侵袭的地区,进行相应的风暴潮防灾减灾措施提供了科学依据。
论文在对青岛近海地区风暴潮灾害的特点、历史灾害回顾基础上,从地区的经济易损性角度,将青岛市所辖七区五市分为四类,分别为高经济风险区：市南区、市北区、黄岛区；较高经济风险区：崂山区、城阳区、即墨市、胶南市；中经济风险区：四方区、李沧区、胶州市；低经济风险区：莱西市和平度市。对各类地区风暴潮灾害经济风险状况及特点的分析,为青岛市进行风暴潮灾害经济预警奠定基础,为各地区海洋开发规划的制定提供客观依据。
China is a typical maritime country.Due to special geographical and historical reasons,coastal areas have the highest density of population and property,which are the most developed economic regions in china. Marine disasters have become one of the nature disasters which have the greatest impact on the future socio-economic development of coastal areas. And the storm surge disaster is the most frequently occuring marine disaster,which led the most serious economic loss.
Based on the sort of knowledge about storm surge disaster,this thesis defines the definition of economic risk on storm surge disaster and the principles for regionalization on storm surge disaster and analyses the current situation of storm surge disaster in our country.Then this thesis establishes an index system for economic risk zoning on storm surge disasters based on the analysis of the factor of the economic risk on storm surge.Through entropy method,gray relational analysis,principal component analysis and analytic hierarchy process combined with kendall consistency test,this thesis builds model of "four-dimensional in one" joint decision-making to measure the economic risk on storm surge disaster.Using the hierarchical clustering method,this thesis does the regionalization of economic risk on storm surge disaster in China's coastal areas to study the differences of possible economic loss caused by the same storm surge disaster in different areas.In the end,Qindao is selected as a typical case to do the empirical analysis. The main thesis is as follows.
Through the analysis of impact factor of the economic risk on storm surge disaster,which are vulnerability, disaster risk and disaster prevention and reduction capacity, this thesis establishes an index system for the regionalization of economic risk on storm surge disaster with "objective tree"method.The index system contains three one-grade indexes and twenty-two two-grade indexes.Then it builds a model of "four-dimensional in one" joint decision-making to measure the economic risk on storm surge disaster using three objective methods and one subjective method combined with kendall consistency test in a creative way. In this way,the evaluation results to be ensured the accuracy and consistency.
Based on the hierarchical clustering method,the division of China's eleven coastal provinces and municipalities (not including HongKong,Macao and Taiwan)has been made. The results divide China's coastal areas into four categories, namely, high economic risk areas:Fujian Province,Guangdong Province and Zhejiang Province;higher economic risk zones:Shanghai;middle risk areas:,Hainan Province,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Shandong Province and Liaoning Province;low risk areas:Tianjin,Jiangsu Province and Hebei Province. The results provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation to government managers, particularly in areas that frequently subjected to storm surge disaster.
Based on the historical review of storm surge disaster in Qingdao coastal areas and the analysis of characteristics of storm surge disaster,this thesis divides the seven districts and five county-level citys into four categories from the perspective of the region's economic vulnerability.They are high economic risk areas(Shinan District, Shibei District, Huangdao District),higher economic risk areas(Laoshan District, Chengyang District, Jimo, Jiaonan),middle risk areas(Sifang District, Licang District, Jiaozhou) and low risk areas(Laixi and Pingdu). Analysis of the risk profile and characteristics of the storm surge disaster for various regions, lay the groundwork for the development of storm surge disaster early warning.And the results provide a scientific basis for regional marine planning.
Finally, this thesis points out the shortcomings of the study, and put forward the question to be further studied and direction.
论文在风暴潮灾害相关知识梳理基础上,界定风暴潮经济风险区划的定义,明确风暴潮灾害经济风险区划的目的和原则,并对我国风暴潮灾害现状进行分析。通过对风暴潮灾害经济风险的要素分析,建立风暴潮灾害经济风险区划指标体系。基于“四维一体”联合决策理论测度模型和层次聚类法对我国沿海地区风暴潮灾害进行经济风险区划,研究不同沿海地区面临完全相同的风暴潮灾害情况下的可能产生的经济损失差异,同时选取青岛市为典型地区进行风暴潮灾害经济风险区划实证分析。论文得到主要结论如下。
论文通过对影响风暴潮灾害经济风险的要素(承灾体易损性、风暴潮灾害危险性、防灾减灾能力)的分析,利用“目的树”方法构建了包含3个一级指标,22个二级指标的风暴潮灾害经济风险区划指标体系。创造性地将三种客观评价方法(熵值法、灰色关联度法、主成分分析法)和一种主观评价方法(层次分析法),与Kendall一致性检验相结合,构建了“四维一体”联合决策理论测度模型进行风暴潮灾害经济风险测度,保证了评价结果的准确性和一致性。
论文基于层次聚类法对我国沿海11省市(不包括香港、澳门、台湾)进行风暴潮灾害经济风险区划。研究结果将我国沿海地区划分为四类,分别是：高经济风险区：福建省、广东省和浙江省；较高经济风险区：上海市；中经济风险区：海南省、广西壮族自治区、山东省和辽宁省；低经济风险区：天津市、江苏省和河北省。区划结果为沿海地区,尤其是频繁遭受风暴潮灾害侵袭的地区,进行相应的风暴潮防灾减灾措施提供了科学依据。
论文在对青岛近海地区风暴潮灾害的特点、历史灾害回顾基础上,从地区的经济易损性角度,将青岛市所辖七区五市分为四类,分别为高经济风险区：市南区、市北区、黄岛区；较高经济风险区：崂山区、城阳区、即墨市、胶南市；中经济风险区：四方区、李沧区、胶州市；低经济风险区：莱西市和平度市。对各类地区风暴潮灾害经济风险状况及特点的分析,为青岛市进行风暴潮灾害经济预警奠定基础,为各地区海洋开发规划的制定提供客观依据。
China is a typical maritime country.Due to special geographical and historical reasons,coastal areas have the highest density of population and property,which are the most developed economic regions in china. Marine disasters have become one of the nature disasters which have the greatest impact on the future socio-economic development of coastal areas. And the storm surge disaster is the most frequently occuring marine disaster,which led the most serious economic loss.
Based on the sort of knowledge about storm surge disaster,this thesis defines the definition of economic risk on storm surge disaster and the principles for regionalization on storm surge disaster and analyses the current situation of storm surge disaster in our country.Then this thesis establishes an index system for economic risk zoning on storm surge disasters based on the analysis of the factor of the economic risk on storm surge.Through entropy method,gray relational analysis,principal component analysis and analytic hierarchy process combined with kendall consistency test,this thesis builds model of "four-dimensional in one" joint decision-making to measure the economic risk on storm surge disaster.Using the hierarchical clustering method,this thesis does the regionalization of economic risk on storm surge disaster in China's coastal areas to study the differences of possible economic loss caused by the same storm surge disaster in different areas.In the end,Qindao is selected as a typical case to do the empirical analysis. The main thesis is as follows.
Through the analysis of impact factor of the economic risk on storm surge disaster,which are vulnerability, disaster risk and disaster prevention and reduction capacity, this thesis establishes an index system for the regionalization of economic risk on storm surge disaster with "objective tree"method.The index system contains three one-grade indexes and twenty-two two-grade indexes.Then it builds a model of "four-dimensional in one" joint decision-making to measure the economic risk on storm surge disaster using three objective methods and one subjective method combined with kendall consistency test in a creative way. In this way,the evaluation results to be ensured the accuracy and consistency.
Based on the hierarchical clustering method,the division of China's eleven coastal provinces and municipalities (not including HongKong,Macao and Taiwan)has been made. The results divide China's coastal areas into four categories, namely, high economic risk areas:Fujian Province,Guangdong Province and Zhejiang Province;higher economic risk zones:Shanghai;middle risk areas:,Hainan Province,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Shandong Province and Liaoning Province;low risk areas:Tianjin,Jiangsu Province and Hebei Province. The results provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation to government managers, particularly in areas that frequently subjected to storm surge disaster.
Based on the historical review of storm surge disaster in Qingdao coastal areas and the analysis of characteristics of storm surge disaster,this thesis divides the seven districts and five county-level citys into four categories from the perspective of the region's economic vulnerability.They are high economic risk areas(Shinan District, Shibei District, Huangdao District),higher economic risk areas(Laoshan District, Chengyang District, Jimo, Jiaonan),middle risk areas(Sifang District, Licang District, Jiaozhou) and low risk areas(Laixi and Pingdu). Analysis of the risk profile and characteristics of the storm surge disaster for various regions, lay the groundwork for the development of storm surge disaster early warning.And the results provide a scientific basis for regional marine planning.
Finally, this thesis points out the shortcomings of the study, and put forward the question to be further studied and direction.
引文
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