区域工业主导产业选择与应用研究
|
摘要
主导产业选择是产业结构调整的重要内容。现代区域经济的发展过程,是区域产业结构不断调整和优化的过程,也是主导产业选择的过程。从经济层面上,主导产业可促进经济发展,同时对区域产业结构的演变方向和趋势具有导向作用。从政治层面上,主导产业可促进劳动者充分就业,扩大区域影响,进而提高国家和地区的城市化和现代化水平。目前,我国工业化已进入一个新时期,科学选择工业主导产业,促进产业结构升级具有重要意义。
本文首先回顾了国内外学者对主导产业的研究现状,提出了目前研究存在的不足:重视实证研究而缺乏理论研究;主导产业选择基准泛化;缺乏对约束因素的分析。其次,本文对主导产业、区域工业主导产业等概念及主导产业选择基准理论做了详细介绍。第三,分析了区域工业主导产业选择的原则及约束因素,构建了区域工业主导产业选择指标体系。具体指标包括:需求收入弹性、增长率、感应度、影响力、区内增加值比重、产业利税率、比较劳动生产率、区位商、技术研究开发密度、物耗产值率、就业吸纳率。第四,建立了区域工业主导产业选择的综合评价模型,选用的评价方法为因子分析法。其优势在于客观科学的评价分析对象。最后,结合定性分析,对鄂尔多斯市工业主导产业选择进行了实例研究,确定鄂尔多斯市工业主导产业是:煤炭开采和洗选业、电热力生产和供应业、纺织业、化学工业、石油和天然气开采业以及通用和专用设备制造业、电子设备制造业,并给出了产业政策建议。
The choice of leading industries is an important aspect of industrial restructuring.Theprocess of regional economic development is the procedure of industrial structuraladjustment and the choice of leading industries.From the economic level,the leadingindustries can promote the rate of economic growth and also play a trend-oriented role forthe evolution of regional industrial structure.From the political level,the leading industriescan promote the rate of employment and expand regional impact,thereby enhancingnational and regional levels of urbanization and modernization.At present,the procedure ofindustrialization in China has entered a new period,the choice of manufacturing leadingindustries for the upgrading of the industrial structure is very important.
Firstly，this article reviews domestic and foreign research achievements in leadingindustry and points out some shortcomings:focus on the empirical research and lack oftheoretical studies；choosing benchmarks of leading industry are non-uniform;lack ofanalysis about constraints.Secondly,this article give a detailed intruduction about thecontent,characteristics and choosing benchmark theory of leading industries,analyzing thefactors of constraints and influencing.Thirdly,analyze the principle and constraints ofchoosing regional manufacturing leading industries and estabilsh indicator system.Theindicators include:income-demand elasticity,industrial growth,the coefficient ofresponse,the coefficient of response,the proportion of the added value of the region,theprofit-tax rate,regional business entropy,energy consumption-output rate,density oftechnology research and development,employment absorption rate.Fourth,establish amodel of selection regional manufacturing leading industries,using the method of factoranalysis.Its advantage lies in the objective evaluation of the scientific analysis of theobject.Finally,uniting qualitative analysis method,this article carries on real diagnosisanalysis to the Ordos City,has determined the leading industry are:coal mining and coalindustry,electric and heat power production and supply industry,textile,chemicalindustry,oil and gas exploration industry,General and special equipment manufacturingindustry,the electronic and communications manufacturing,and gives industry policyrecommendations.
本文首先回顾了国内外学者对主导产业的研究现状,提出了目前研究存在的不足:重视实证研究而缺乏理论研究;主导产业选择基准泛化;缺乏对约束因素的分析。其次,本文对主导产业、区域工业主导产业等概念及主导产业选择基准理论做了详细介绍。第三,分析了区域工业主导产业选择的原则及约束因素,构建了区域工业主导产业选择指标体系。具体指标包括:需求收入弹性、增长率、感应度、影响力、区内增加值比重、产业利税率、比较劳动生产率、区位商、技术研究开发密度、物耗产值率、就业吸纳率。第四,建立了区域工业主导产业选择的综合评价模型,选用的评价方法为因子分析法。其优势在于客观科学的评价分析对象。最后,结合定性分析,对鄂尔多斯市工业主导产业选择进行了实例研究,确定鄂尔多斯市工业主导产业是:煤炭开采和洗选业、电热力生产和供应业、纺织业、化学工业、石油和天然气开采业以及通用和专用设备制造业、电子设备制造业,并给出了产业政策建议。
The choice of leading industries is an important aspect of industrial restructuring.Theprocess of regional economic development is the procedure of industrial structuraladjustment and the choice of leading industries.From the economic level,the leadingindustries can promote the rate of economic growth and also play a trend-oriented role forthe evolution of regional industrial structure.From the political level,the leading industriescan promote the rate of employment and expand regional impact,thereby enhancingnational and regional levels of urbanization and modernization.At present,the procedure ofindustrialization in China has entered a new period,the choice of manufacturing leadingindustries for the upgrading of the industrial structure is very important.
Firstly，this article reviews domestic and foreign research achievements in leadingindustry and points out some shortcomings:focus on the empirical research and lack oftheoretical studies；choosing benchmarks of leading industry are non-uniform;lack ofanalysis about constraints.Secondly,this article give a detailed intruduction about thecontent,characteristics and choosing benchmark theory of leading industries,analyzing thefactors of constraints and influencing.Thirdly,analyze the principle and constraints ofchoosing regional manufacturing leading industries and estabilsh indicator system.Theindicators include:income-demand elasticity,industrial growth,the coefficient ofresponse,the coefficient of response,the proportion of the added value of the region,theprofit-tax rate,regional business entropy,energy consumption-output rate,density oftechnology research and development,employment absorption rate.Fourth,establish amodel of selection regional manufacturing leading industries,using the method of factoranalysis.Its advantage lies in the objective evaluation of the scientific analysis of theobject.Finally,uniting qualitative analysis method,this article carries on real diagnosisanalysis to the Ordos City,has determined the leading industry are:coal mining and coalindustry,electric and heat power production and supply industry,textile,chemicalindustry,oil and gas exploration industry,General and special equipment manufacturingindustry,the electronic and communications manufacturing,and gives industry policyrecommendations.
引文
[1] Amitim.New Trade Theories and Industrial Location in the EU:A Suxvev ofEvidence.oxfoxd R eview of E conom ic Policy,1998,14(2):4003.
[2] B.Morris.Clusters and the new economics of competition.Harvard BusinessReview,2001,76(6):77-90.
[3] Batty.Shift-share analysis:Further examination of models for the description ofeconomic change.Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2004, (34):177-198.
[4] Brulhart.M.Evolving geographic Concentration of European Manufacturingindusteies. Weltw irtsch-aftliches A rchiv, 2001,(9) :145-174.
[5] Carree.Industrial Restructuring and Economic growth. Small Business Economics.2002,6 Page(s):312-314.
[6] Kiminori,Fumio.Diversification Dynamics of the Japanese Industry.ResearchPolicy,2005,(30):1165-1184.
[7] Geoff.R,Helvey.G. Comparison of gravity model, survey and location quotient-basedlocal area tables and multi-pliers. Regional Studies,2006, 40(9): 1069-1081.
[8] Gore.Regions in Question:Space,Development Theory and Regional Policy.Ulethuen,new York.1984:29-32.
[9] Chenery.M.Structure Change and Development Policy.Oxford UniversityPress,1989.2:l25-132.
[10] Hadi-Vencheh.H,etal.A EDA model for resource allocation.EconomicModelling,doi:econmod.2008(3):318-327.
[11] Litvintseva,Milyaev.Characteristic features of development and growth factors ofNovosibirsk region industry in 1995-2003.Science and Technology. July 2005Page(s):912-917.
[12] M.Fabio.An evolutionary model of industry growth and structure change.StructureChange& Economic Dynamics,2008,13(10):387-414.
[13] M.Yeneder.Industry structureand aggregate growth.StructureChange&EconomicDynamics,2002,14(12):427-449.
[14] MacKellar.Choose the power industry for a bright future.Power EngineeringReview.Volume 21.Issue 12,Dec.2001 Page(s):15-16.
[15] Mohamed Fadhil,Dulaimi,Florence.Ofori,George,Engines for change in Singapore'sconstruction industry:an industry view of Singapore's Construction 21report.Building and Environment Volume:39,Issue:6,June,2004, pp. 699-711.
[16] Patricia,Byrnes.Efficiency Gains from Regionalization: Economic Development inChina Revisited.Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2000(34):141-154.
[17] Presnell,Keith.Exporting Australia's remote area power supply industry.RenewableEnergy Volume:22, Issue:1-3, January-March,2001,pp.353-360.
[18] Sporri,Borsuk,Peters.The economic impacts of river rehabilitation: A regional inputoutputanalysis. Ecological Economics, 2007, 62(2): 341-351.
[19] Ting Gao.Regional Industrial Growth: Evidence from Chinese Industries. RegionalScience and Urban Economics,2004(34):101-124.
[20] Xiao ping,Shen.Spatial Inequality of Rural Industrial Development in China,1989-1994.Journal of Rural Studies Volume:15,Issue:2,April, 1999, PP179- 199.
[21] Yamawaki Hideki.The Evolution and Structure of Industrial Clusters in Japan. SmallBusiness Economics, 2002,2:35-40.
[22]安国良,王国生,刘志彪.现代产业经济分析.南京:南京大学出版社,2001.7.
[23]曹芳萍,朱满华.主导性高技术产业领域的评价与筛选.科学研究,2008,(6):14-16.
[24]鄂尔多斯统计局.鄂尔多斯市统计年鉴.鄂尔多斯统计局,2005.
[25]鄂尔多斯统计局.鄂尔多斯市统计年鉴.鄂尔多斯统计局,2006.
[26]鄂尔多斯统计局.鄂尔多斯市统计年鉴.鄂尔多斯统计局,2007.
[27]范金.应用产业经济学.北京:经济管理出版社,2004.
[28]关爱萍,王瑜.区域主导产业的选择基准研究.统计研究,2002,(12):21-23.
[29]郭成信.对鄂尔多斯市煤炭工业发展的思考.煤炭企业管理,2006,(4):27-30.
[30]郭克莎.工业化新时期新兴主导产业的选择.中国工业经济,2003,(2):17-19.
[31]郭萍.主导产业的选择方法与应用研究——以西安市高新区为例.企业经济,2007,(9):24-26.
[32]何景明,卢旭.主导产业选择基准的探讨.西南师范大学学报,1998(1):24-27.
[33]赫希曼.经济发展战略.北京:经济科学出版社,1991.
[34]江世银.区域产业结构调整与主导产业结构研究.上海:上海人民出版社,2004.
[35]吉荣康北京市主导产业选择研究.北京工业大学硕士学位论文,2006.
[36]李嘉图.政治经济学及赋税原理.北京:商务印书版,1962.
[37]李杰.区域主导产业选择与对比分析.南京航空航天大学,2006.
[38]李新,刘朝明.基于区域创新视角的中国高新区主导产业选择基准.科技管理研究,2007(9):64-66
[39]刘爱东.四个突破——鄂尔多斯工业新跨越.鄂尔多斯日报,2006,(11).
[40]刘克利,彭水军,陈富华.主导产业的评价选择模型及其应用系统工程.2003(3):62-63.
[41]刘颖琦,李学伟,李雪梅.基于钻石理论的主导产业选择模型的研究.中国软科学,2006,(1):12-14.
[42]卢正惠.区域开发中主导产业的选择基准.经济问题探索,2001(6):108-111.
[43]罗淮军.城市主导产业的选择方法及应用.市场经纬,2006(4):56-59.
[44]罗托斯W·W.经济成长的阶段.北京:商务出版社,1959.
[45]孟庆红.主导产业选择基准新论.经济理论研究,1998(1):21-25.
[46]牛冲槐.层次分析法在选择山西主导产业中的应用.太原理工大学报,2002,(6):44-47.
[47]钱纳里.工业化和经济增长的比较研究.上海:上海三联出版社,1989.
[48]任胜钢,林哲,陈凤梅,中部地区工业主导产业选择与实证研究.中南大学学报,2007,(8):22-24.
[49]王莉.关于区域主导产业选择之基准探讨.煤炭技术,2004(8):11-13.
[50]王敏.地区主导产业选择的AHP模型及其应用.重庆师范学院学报(自然科学版),2001,(4):33-36.
[51]王玉昭.区域主导产业选择方法的探讨.统计与咨询,2008(1):20-21.
[52]王岳平.中国工业结构调整与升级:理论、实证和政策.北京:中国计划出版社,2001.
[53]西蒙·库兹涅茨.各国的经济增长.商务印书馆,1985(中译本).
[54]筱原三代平.产业结构论.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1990.
[55]熊彼特.经济发展理论——对于利润、资本、信贷、利息和经济周期的思考.商务印书版,1997.
[56]云峰.内蒙古日报.2007,9（2）:1-2.
[57]于刃刚.主导产业论.北京:人民出版社,2003.
[58]张魁伟.区域主导产业评价指标体系的构建.科技进步与对策,2004,(8):18-21.
[59]张同升.北京市主导产业的选择.统计与决策,2008,(12):37-39.
[60]赵永刚,王燕燕,李飞,朱永华.区域主导产业选择指标体系的设计.武汉大学工程学报,2008,9(5):42-44.
[61]周振华.产业结构政策的选择基准:一个新的假说.经济研究,1989(3):28-30.
[2] B.Morris.Clusters and the new economics of competition.Harvard BusinessReview,2001,76(6):77-90.
[3] Batty.Shift-share analysis:Further examination of models for the description ofeconomic change.Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2004, (34):177-198.
[4] Brulhart.M.Evolving geographic Concentration of European Manufacturingindusteies. Weltw irtsch-aftliches A rchiv, 2001,(9) :145-174.
[5] Carree.Industrial Restructuring and Economic growth. Small Business Economics.2002,6 Page(s):312-314.
[6] Kiminori,Fumio.Diversification Dynamics of the Japanese Industry.ResearchPolicy,2005,(30):1165-1184.
[7] Geoff.R,Helvey.G. Comparison of gravity model, survey and location quotient-basedlocal area tables and multi-pliers. Regional Studies,2006, 40(9): 1069-1081.
[8] Gore.Regions in Question:Space,Development Theory and Regional Policy.Ulethuen,new York.1984:29-32.
[9] Chenery.M.Structure Change and Development Policy.Oxford UniversityPress,1989.2:l25-132.
[10] Hadi-Vencheh.H,etal.A EDA model for resource allocation.EconomicModelling,doi:econmod.2008(3):318-327.
[11] Litvintseva,Milyaev.Characteristic features of development and growth factors ofNovosibirsk region industry in 1995-2003.Science and Technology. July 2005Page(s):912-917.
[12] M.Fabio.An evolutionary model of industry growth and structure change.StructureChange& Economic Dynamics,2008,13(10):387-414.
[13] M.Yeneder.Industry structureand aggregate growth.StructureChange&EconomicDynamics,2002,14(12):427-449.
[14] MacKellar.Choose the power industry for a bright future.Power EngineeringReview.Volume 21.Issue 12,Dec.2001 Page(s):15-16.
[15] Mohamed Fadhil,Dulaimi,Florence.Ofori,George,Engines for change in Singapore'sconstruction industry:an industry view of Singapore's Construction 21report.Building and Environment Volume:39,Issue:6,June,2004, pp. 699-711.
[16] Patricia,Byrnes.Efficiency Gains from Regionalization: Economic Development inChina Revisited.Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2000(34):141-154.
[17] Presnell,Keith.Exporting Australia's remote area power supply industry.RenewableEnergy Volume:22, Issue:1-3, January-March,2001,pp.353-360.
[18] Sporri,Borsuk,Peters.The economic impacts of river rehabilitation: A regional inputoutputanalysis. Ecological Economics, 2007, 62(2): 341-351.
[19] Ting Gao.Regional Industrial Growth: Evidence from Chinese Industries. RegionalScience and Urban Economics,2004(34):101-124.
[20] Xiao ping,Shen.Spatial Inequality of Rural Industrial Development in China,1989-1994.Journal of Rural Studies Volume:15,Issue:2,April, 1999, PP179- 199.
[21] Yamawaki Hideki.The Evolution and Structure of Industrial Clusters in Japan. SmallBusiness Economics, 2002,2:35-40.
[22]安国良,王国生,刘志彪.现代产业经济分析.南京:南京大学出版社,2001.7.
[23]曹芳萍,朱满华.主导性高技术产业领域的评价与筛选.科学研究,2008,(6):14-16.
[24]鄂尔多斯统计局.鄂尔多斯市统计年鉴.鄂尔多斯统计局,2005.
[25]鄂尔多斯统计局.鄂尔多斯市统计年鉴.鄂尔多斯统计局,2006.
[26]鄂尔多斯统计局.鄂尔多斯市统计年鉴.鄂尔多斯统计局,2007.
[27]范金.应用产业经济学.北京:经济管理出版社,2004.
[28]关爱萍,王瑜.区域主导产业的选择基准研究.统计研究,2002,(12):21-23.
[29]郭成信.对鄂尔多斯市煤炭工业发展的思考.煤炭企业管理,2006,(4):27-30.
[30]郭克莎.工业化新时期新兴主导产业的选择.中国工业经济,2003,(2):17-19.
[31]郭萍.主导产业的选择方法与应用研究——以西安市高新区为例.企业经济,2007,(9):24-26.
[32]何景明,卢旭.主导产业选择基准的探讨.西南师范大学学报,1998(1):24-27.
[33]赫希曼.经济发展战略.北京:经济科学出版社,1991.
[34]江世银.区域产业结构调整与主导产业结构研究.上海:上海人民出版社,2004.
[35]吉荣康北京市主导产业选择研究.北京工业大学硕士学位论文,2006.
[36]李嘉图.政治经济学及赋税原理.北京:商务印书版,1962.
[37]李杰.区域主导产业选择与对比分析.南京航空航天大学,2006.
[38]李新,刘朝明.基于区域创新视角的中国高新区主导产业选择基准.科技管理研究,2007(9):64-66
[39]刘爱东.四个突破——鄂尔多斯工业新跨越.鄂尔多斯日报,2006,(11).
[40]刘克利,彭水军,陈富华.主导产业的评价选择模型及其应用系统工程.2003(3):62-63.
[41]刘颖琦,李学伟,李雪梅.基于钻石理论的主导产业选择模型的研究.中国软科学,2006,(1):12-14.
[42]卢正惠.区域开发中主导产业的选择基准.经济问题探索,2001(6):108-111.
[43]罗淮军.城市主导产业的选择方法及应用.市场经纬,2006(4):56-59.
[44]罗托斯W·W.经济成长的阶段.北京:商务出版社,1959.
[45]孟庆红.主导产业选择基准新论.经济理论研究,1998(1):21-25.
[46]牛冲槐.层次分析法在选择山西主导产业中的应用.太原理工大学报,2002,(6):44-47.
[47]钱纳里.工业化和经济增长的比较研究.上海:上海三联出版社,1989.
[48]任胜钢,林哲,陈凤梅,中部地区工业主导产业选择与实证研究.中南大学学报,2007,(8):22-24.
[49]王莉.关于区域主导产业选择之基准探讨.煤炭技术,2004(8):11-13.
[50]王敏.地区主导产业选择的AHP模型及其应用.重庆师范学院学报(自然科学版),2001,(4):33-36.
[51]王玉昭.区域主导产业选择方法的探讨.统计与咨询,2008(1):20-21.
[52]王岳平.中国工业结构调整与升级:理论、实证和政策.北京:中国计划出版社,2001.
[53]西蒙·库兹涅茨.各国的经济增长.商务印书馆,1985(中译本).
[54]筱原三代平.产业结构论.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1990.
[55]熊彼特.经济发展理论——对于利润、资本、信贷、利息和经济周期的思考.商务印书版,1997.
[56]云峰.内蒙古日报.2007,9（2）:1-2.
[57]于刃刚.主导产业论.北京:人民出版社,2003.
[58]张魁伟.区域主导产业评价指标体系的构建.科技进步与对策,2004,(8):18-21.
[59]张同升.北京市主导产业的选择.统计与决策,2008,(12):37-39.
[60]赵永刚,王燕燕,李飞,朱永华.区域主导产业选择指标体系的设计.武汉大学工程学报,2008,9(5):42-44.
[61]周振华.产业结构政策的选择基准:一个新的假说.经济研究,1989(3):28-30.