我国原油进口海上运输通道安全保障研究
|
摘要
原油是现代工业社会运转的基础,被称为现代工业的血液,是国家重要的工业原料和战略物资。我国是世界第五大原油出产国,但由于产量与消费量的巨大差异,我国于上世纪90年代开始进口原油且呈逐年递增趋势。据海关统计,2008年中国进口原油1.79亿吨,其中通过海洋运输进口原油1.645亿吨,占进口总量的92%。由此可见,维护我国原油进口海上运输通道的安全对于保障我国原油安全有着至关重要的作用。
本文首先针对我国原油进口海上运输通道展开定性分析,对我国原油进口海上运输通道的重要性和安全现状进行概述,介绍了海上运输通道的内涵和种类,并对我国原油进口海上运输通道进行分类,总结出影响我国原油进口海上运输通道的安全因素。在定性分析的基础上,运用数学统计、经济学方法对影响我国原油进口海上运输通道进行分析:运用灰色预测、三次指数平滑法对我国2009-2013年原油进口海运总量、中非-中国海运总量、中东-中国海运总量进行预测;通过BP神经网络对影响我国原油进口海上运输通道的安全因素进行风险评估,得出可以将这个网络用于今后我国原油进口海上运输通道的风险评价中的结论;通过对承运份额、船舶单程航行时间等因素的分析,建立我国油轮船队运力规模定量确认模型,确定不同时期我国安全油轮运力规模。
本文在根据前面定性、定量分析的基础上,在最后提出了许多保障我国原油进口海上运输通道安全的建议,包括合理调整我国的港口原油通过能力、加快我国原油储备建设、合理布局我国沿海原油码头、加快本国油轮船队建设、加强国家合作等。文章立足我国交通主管部门的能力权限,以解决实际问题为研究出发点,从我国目前能够解决的问题着手,研究我国原油进口海上运输通道的安全保障措施。
Crude oil, known as the blood of modern industry which lubricates its operations, is a kind of industrial materials and strategic materials of great significance to a country. China ranks the fifth for crude oil production, but owing to big discrepancy in volume between production and consumption, China kicked off its crude oil import in 1990s and has witnessed annual growths since then. According to figures acquired from the customs, China imported 0.179 billion tons crude oil in 2008, of which 0.1645 billion tons were carried by ships, accounting for 92% of the total. It follows that it is of critical importance to safeguard the security of the sea lines of communication (SLOCs) for crude oil import of China in order to protect our country's crude oil strategic safety.
The thesis firstly has qualitative analysis on SLOCs for crude oil import of China and further its significance and safety status, introduces the connotations and classifications of SLOCs, then classifies SLOCs for crude oil import of China and summarizes factors affecting the safety of SLOCs for crude oil import of China. Based on the qualitative analysis, statistics and economics methods are adopted to analyze SLOCs for crude oil import of China listed as grey prediction method, cubic exponential smoothing method and BP neural network prediction method for predictions on crude oil import volume by sea from 2009 to 2013, Mid-Africa-China shipping volume and Middle East-China shipping volume respectively. And BP neural network has been used to make risk assessment on security factors affecting SLOCs for crude oil import of China, from which to draw a conclusion that the network is practical and effective in this connection. Finally, by analyzing factors like carriage quota, navigating time for single voyage, etc., the thesis establishes quantitative model for identification of transport capacity scale of oil tanker fleet and ascertains safety oil tanker transport capacity scale of China under different periods.
At the end of this thesis, with reference to the aforesaid qualitative and quantitative analysis, the author brings forth a serial of advices to secure the safety of SLOCs for crude oil import of China including reasonably adjusting port crude oil throughput capacity in China, expediting the construction of state crude oil strategic reserves, reasonably allocating crude oil terminals in China's coastal regions, hastening the construction of native oil tanker fleet, strengthening national cooperation and so on. Footed within the abilities and provinces of Competent Authorities of Transport and Communications, taking off from solving practical problems and commencing on the problems that can be settled, the thesis aims to commit deep researches on securing measures for the safety of SLOCs for crude oil import of China.
本文首先针对我国原油进口海上运输通道展开定性分析,对我国原油进口海上运输通道的重要性和安全现状进行概述,介绍了海上运输通道的内涵和种类,并对我国原油进口海上运输通道进行分类,总结出影响我国原油进口海上运输通道的安全因素。在定性分析的基础上,运用数学统计、经济学方法对影响我国原油进口海上运输通道进行分析:运用灰色预测、三次指数平滑法对我国2009-2013年原油进口海运总量、中非-中国海运总量、中东-中国海运总量进行预测;通过BP神经网络对影响我国原油进口海上运输通道的安全因素进行风险评估,得出可以将这个网络用于今后我国原油进口海上运输通道的风险评价中的结论;通过对承运份额、船舶单程航行时间等因素的分析,建立我国油轮船队运力规模定量确认模型,确定不同时期我国安全油轮运力规模。
本文在根据前面定性、定量分析的基础上,在最后提出了许多保障我国原油进口海上运输通道安全的建议,包括合理调整我国的港口原油通过能力、加快我国原油储备建设、合理布局我国沿海原油码头、加快本国油轮船队建设、加强国家合作等。文章立足我国交通主管部门的能力权限,以解决实际问题为研究出发点,从我国目前能够解决的问题着手,研究我国原油进口海上运输通道的安全保障措施。
Crude oil, known as the blood of modern industry which lubricates its operations, is a kind of industrial materials and strategic materials of great significance to a country. China ranks the fifth for crude oil production, but owing to big discrepancy in volume between production and consumption, China kicked off its crude oil import in 1990s and has witnessed annual growths since then. According to figures acquired from the customs, China imported 0.179 billion tons crude oil in 2008, of which 0.1645 billion tons were carried by ships, accounting for 92% of the total. It follows that it is of critical importance to safeguard the security of the sea lines of communication (SLOCs) for crude oil import of China in order to protect our country's crude oil strategic safety.
The thesis firstly has qualitative analysis on SLOCs for crude oil import of China and further its significance and safety status, introduces the connotations and classifications of SLOCs, then classifies SLOCs for crude oil import of China and summarizes factors affecting the safety of SLOCs for crude oil import of China. Based on the qualitative analysis, statistics and economics methods are adopted to analyze SLOCs for crude oil import of China listed as grey prediction method, cubic exponential smoothing method and BP neural network prediction method for predictions on crude oil import volume by sea from 2009 to 2013, Mid-Africa-China shipping volume and Middle East-China shipping volume respectively. And BP neural network has been used to make risk assessment on security factors affecting SLOCs for crude oil import of China, from which to draw a conclusion that the network is practical and effective in this connection. Finally, by analyzing factors like carriage quota, navigating time for single voyage, etc., the thesis establishes quantitative model for identification of transport capacity scale of oil tanker fleet and ascertains safety oil tanker transport capacity scale of China under different periods.
At the end of this thesis, with reference to the aforesaid qualitative and quantitative analysis, the author brings forth a serial of advices to secure the safety of SLOCs for crude oil import of China including reasonably adjusting port crude oil throughput capacity in China, expediting the construction of state crude oil strategic reserves, reasonably allocating crude oil terminals in China's coastal regions, hastening the construction of native oil tanker fleet, strengthening national cooperation and so on. Footed within the abilities and provinces of Competent Authorities of Transport and Communications, taking off from solving practical problems and commencing on the problems that can be settled, the thesis aims to commit deep researches on securing measures for the safety of SLOCs for crude oil import of China.
引文
[1]王桂英.中国石油环境分析和石油安全战略研究:(博士学位论文).北京:对外经济贸易大学,2001.
[2]中国现代国际关系研究院海上通道安全课题组.海上通道安全与国际合作.北京:时事出版社,2005.
[3]陆如泉,傅阳朝等.影响全球石油贸易的七大运输咽喉.能源安全,2003,10(10):16-20.
[4]李焱,郑宝友,陈汉宝等.港口通航环境对船舶航行安全的影响分析及评价.水道港口,2007,28(5):342-347.
[5]刘亚莉,毕玉蓉等.论马六甲海峡的安全现状-非传统威胁与传统威胁并存.东南亚之窗,2007,0l(4):11-15.
[6]姜大庆,王志平,韩京伟等.中国海上石油运输通道安全的考虑.2008年危险品运输国际论坛论文集,济南,2008.
[7]陈佳云.海上运输通航环境安全评价研究.水运科学研究,2007,03(1):27-32.
[8]陈凤英,赵宏图.国际战略资源调查.北京:时事出版社,2005.
[9]Vijay Sakhuja,"India ocean and the safety of sea lines of communication",Strategic Analysis,August 2001,VOL,XXV No.5.
[10]格拉汉·格拉德·奥等.海上恐怖主义和海盜威胁.东南亚纵横,2006,04(4):15-15.
[11]Brian Cloughley,"NO need for war in south china sea ",International Defence Review,June 1995,P.25.
[12]张荣忠.世界能源运输线的咽喉要到-中国进口能源的运输风险与应对.港口经济,2004,05(5):36-38.
[13]陈洁.我国海运原油运输网络优化问题研究:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学,2008.
[14]郑中义.港口船舶事故致因的灰色关联分析模型.大连海事大学学报,1997,2(2):61-64.
[15]文华.海运安全评价研究:(博士学位论文).武汉:武汉理工大学,2003.
[16]李萍,曾令可,税安泽等.基于MATLAB的BP神经网络预测系统的设计.计算机应用与软件,2008,25(4):149-151.
[17]张雄勃,苗西坤,王申.指数平滑预测法应用中平滑系数的确定.武警工程学院学报,2003,19(6):1-3.
[18]马晓珂,王慈光.三次指数平滑法在大秦铁路运量预测中的应用.华东交通大学学报,200,22(3):8-11.
[19]王丽楠.中国石油进口三个主要来源地的风险比较:(硕士学位论文).北京:中国人民大学,2008.
[20]Mark J.Valencia,"New Asia:Transnational Navigational Issues and Possible Cooperative Responses",in IGCC policy p.33.
[21]马超.中国石油安全的地缘分析:(硕士学位论文).郑州:解放军信息工程大学,2007.
[22]贾大山.中国水运发展战略探索-战略准备阶段回顾与新阶段发展展望.大连:大连海事大学出版社,1993.
[23]徐涛.我国组建大型油轮运输船队模式探讨.石油化工管理干部学院学报,2006,44(9):15-19
[24]刘雪飞.海上石油运输通道国际安全制度之构建:(硕士学位论文).青岛:中国海洋大学,2006.
[25]Jack McCaffrie,Maritime Strategy into the 21~(st) Century:Issues for Regional Navies,Workinig Paper No.297 pp.6-10.
[26]Ji GuoXing,"SLOC security in the Asian Pacific ",Asian-Pacific Center For Security Studies,Honolulu,Hawaii,Feb.2000
[27]B.A.Hamza and Mohd.Nizam Basiron:"The Strait of Mallaca:Some Funding Proposals",MIMA Paper,Maritime Institute of Malaysia,p.67.
[28]杜麒栋.我国原油运输及原油码头建设的发展趋势.港口经济,2008,11(5=11):20-23.
[29]孙晓蕾,王永锋等.浅析我国原油进口运输布局与运输安全.中国能源,2007,29(5):17-44.
[30]贾大山,孙峻岩,罗洪波等.中国石油海运通道安全评价与对策.大连海事大学学报,2006,32(2):62-66.
[31]陈小龙.我国进口原油水路运输与成品油行业动态关系分析:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学,2008.
[32]孙峻岩,贾大山等.我国石油海上运输安全体系及评价(上).水运管理,2005,27(9):22-25.
[33]刘新华,秦仪等.中国的石油安全及其战略选择.现代国际关系,200,12(12):35-46.
[34]钱学文.中国与中东的能源合作.国际观察,2008,01(1):45-50.
[35]何琬,郑迎迎.中国与非洲的石油贸易与合作.国际经济合作,2007,11(11):13-15.
[36]孙峻岩,贾大山等.我国石油海上运输安全体系及评价(下).水运管理,2005,27(10):24-35.
[37]杨厚盛.石油运输与海洋保护.北京:人民交通出版社,1999.
[38]赵刚.国际航运管理.大连:大连海事大学出版社,2006.
[39]李先强.论打击海盗与海上武装劫船之政府责任.中国水运,2008,08(1):228-230.
[40]www.cindyvallar.com/piratearticles.html#word
[41]International Chamber of commerce,International Maritime Bureau,"Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships",2000 Annual Report,31 March 2001,MSC/Circ.991,p.19.
[42]David N.Griffiths,"Worldwide Piracy:Compiling the Facts",Maritime Affairs,Fall 1998,p.16.
[43]童飞.基于BP神经网络的水上交通事故预测及MATLAB实现:(硕士学位论文).武汉:武汉理工大学,2005.
[44]仇源.国油国运-关注中国原油运输.中国货主,2004,12(12):58-60.
[45]秦晓.中国能源运输业的发展与未来战略.中国能源,2008,30(4):29-33.
[46]罗萍.国油国运-中国能源的安全保障线.中国远洋航务公告,2005,02(2):38-40.
[47]中国能源发展战略与政策研究报告课题组.中国能源发展战略与政策研究报告.经济研究参考,2004,83(6):1-50.
[48]丁春香,郭宗善等.保障我国进口石油海运安全的措施研究.石油化工技术经济,2008,6(3):5-7.
[49]王金洲.世界石油经济.重庆:南海出版公司,1999.
[50]国际航运管理人才培训教材编写委员会.国际航运管理基础知识.北京:人民交通出版社,2001.
[51]肖青.港口规划.大连:大连海事大学出版社,1999.
[52]孙光圻.国际海运政策.大连:大连海事大学出版社,1993.
[53]张页.我国进口石油运输安全问题的探讨.水运管理,2004,09(9):11-18.
[54]孟庆林等.中国石油海运发展分析及政策建议.中国远洋航务公告,2006,03(3):46-48.
[55]汪海等.构建避开霍尔木兹海峡的国际通道-中国与海湾油气安全连接战略.世界经济与政治,2006,01(1):48-54.
[56]张抗.中东石油出口流向变化及对中国的影响.西亚北非,2007,10(10):18-24.
[57]苏同江,王瑞亮等.浅析中国石油能源安全及供需对海上石油运输的影响.青岛远洋船 员学院学报,2004,25(4):40-43.
[58]徐舜华,岳小文等.国外石油海运发展及其对我国的启示.国际石油经济,2007,01(9):15-18.
[59]张新安,张迎新等.世界前10大石油进口国(地区)石油进口态势分析及对我国启示.国土资源情报,2003,07(7):1-10.
[60]Williamson Murray,Carriers and the Next Century,Thomas Hirschfeld & Peter Hore,ed.,Maritime Aviation,Viking Press,Royal Navy studies-CAN,1999.p.227.
[61]Michael Leifer,"The Security of Sea Lanes in Southeast Asia",Survival,Vol.25,No.1(January/February 1983),p.16.
[62]李亚芬.我国石油供求现状、问题及改善对策.国际金融研究,2005,03(3):65-70.
[2]中国现代国际关系研究院海上通道安全课题组.海上通道安全与国际合作.北京:时事出版社,2005.
[3]陆如泉,傅阳朝等.影响全球石油贸易的七大运输咽喉.能源安全,2003,10(10):16-20.
[4]李焱,郑宝友,陈汉宝等.港口通航环境对船舶航行安全的影响分析及评价.水道港口,2007,28(5):342-347.
[5]刘亚莉,毕玉蓉等.论马六甲海峡的安全现状-非传统威胁与传统威胁并存.东南亚之窗,2007,0l(4):11-15.
[6]姜大庆,王志平,韩京伟等.中国海上石油运输通道安全的考虑.2008年危险品运输国际论坛论文集,济南,2008.
[7]陈佳云.海上运输通航环境安全评价研究.水运科学研究,2007,03(1):27-32.
[8]陈凤英,赵宏图.国际战略资源调查.北京:时事出版社,2005.
[9]Vijay Sakhuja,"India ocean and the safety of sea lines of communication",Strategic Analysis,August 2001,VOL,XXV No.5.
[10]格拉汉·格拉德·奥等.海上恐怖主义和海盜威胁.东南亚纵横,2006,04(4):15-15.
[11]Brian Cloughley,"NO need for war in south china sea ",International Defence Review,June 1995,P.25.
[12]张荣忠.世界能源运输线的咽喉要到-中国进口能源的运输风险与应对.港口经济,2004,05(5):36-38.
[13]陈洁.我国海运原油运输网络优化问题研究:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学,2008.
[14]郑中义.港口船舶事故致因的灰色关联分析模型.大连海事大学学报,1997,2(2):61-64.
[15]文华.海运安全评价研究:(博士学位论文).武汉:武汉理工大学,2003.
[16]李萍,曾令可,税安泽等.基于MATLAB的BP神经网络预测系统的设计.计算机应用与软件,2008,25(4):149-151.
[17]张雄勃,苗西坤,王申.指数平滑预测法应用中平滑系数的确定.武警工程学院学报,2003,19(6):1-3.
[18]马晓珂,王慈光.三次指数平滑法在大秦铁路运量预测中的应用.华东交通大学学报,200,22(3):8-11.
[19]王丽楠.中国石油进口三个主要来源地的风险比较:(硕士学位论文).北京:中国人民大学,2008.
[20]Mark J.Valencia,"New Asia:Transnational Navigational Issues and Possible Cooperative Responses",in IGCC policy p.33.
[21]马超.中国石油安全的地缘分析:(硕士学位论文).郑州:解放军信息工程大学,2007.
[22]贾大山.中国水运发展战略探索-战略准备阶段回顾与新阶段发展展望.大连:大连海事大学出版社,1993.
[23]徐涛.我国组建大型油轮运输船队模式探讨.石油化工管理干部学院学报,2006,44(9):15-19
[24]刘雪飞.海上石油运输通道国际安全制度之构建:(硕士学位论文).青岛:中国海洋大学,2006.
[25]Jack McCaffrie,Maritime Strategy into the 21~(st) Century:Issues for Regional Navies,Workinig Paper No.297 pp.6-10.
[26]Ji GuoXing,"SLOC security in the Asian Pacific ",Asian-Pacific Center For Security Studies,Honolulu,Hawaii,Feb.2000
[27]B.A.Hamza and Mohd.Nizam Basiron:"The Strait of Mallaca:Some Funding Proposals",MIMA Paper,Maritime Institute of Malaysia,p.67.
[28]杜麒栋.我国原油运输及原油码头建设的发展趋势.港口经济,2008,11(5=11):20-23.
[29]孙晓蕾,王永锋等.浅析我国原油进口运输布局与运输安全.中国能源,2007,29(5):17-44.
[30]贾大山,孙峻岩,罗洪波等.中国石油海运通道安全评价与对策.大连海事大学学报,2006,32(2):62-66.
[31]陈小龙.我国进口原油水路运输与成品油行业动态关系分析:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学,2008.
[32]孙峻岩,贾大山等.我国石油海上运输安全体系及评价(上).水运管理,2005,27(9):22-25.
[33]刘新华,秦仪等.中国的石油安全及其战略选择.现代国际关系,200,12(12):35-46.
[34]钱学文.中国与中东的能源合作.国际观察,2008,01(1):45-50.
[35]何琬,郑迎迎.中国与非洲的石油贸易与合作.国际经济合作,2007,11(11):13-15.
[36]孙峻岩,贾大山等.我国石油海上运输安全体系及评价(下).水运管理,2005,27(10):24-35.
[37]杨厚盛.石油运输与海洋保护.北京:人民交通出版社,1999.
[38]赵刚.国际航运管理.大连:大连海事大学出版社,2006.
[39]李先强.论打击海盗与海上武装劫船之政府责任.中国水运,2008,08(1):228-230.
[40]www.cindyvallar.com/piratearticles.html#word
[41]International Chamber of commerce,International Maritime Bureau,"Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships",2000 Annual Report,31 March 2001,MSC/Circ.991,p.19.
[42]David N.Griffiths,"Worldwide Piracy:Compiling the Facts",Maritime Affairs,Fall 1998,p.16.
[43]童飞.基于BP神经网络的水上交通事故预测及MATLAB实现:(硕士学位论文).武汉:武汉理工大学,2005.
[44]仇源.国油国运-关注中国原油运输.中国货主,2004,12(12):58-60.
[45]秦晓.中国能源运输业的发展与未来战略.中国能源,2008,30(4):29-33.
[46]罗萍.国油国运-中国能源的安全保障线.中国远洋航务公告,2005,02(2):38-40.
[47]中国能源发展战略与政策研究报告课题组.中国能源发展战略与政策研究报告.经济研究参考,2004,83(6):1-50.
[48]丁春香,郭宗善等.保障我国进口石油海运安全的措施研究.石油化工技术经济,2008,6(3):5-7.
[49]王金洲.世界石油经济.重庆:南海出版公司,1999.
[50]国际航运管理人才培训教材编写委员会.国际航运管理基础知识.北京:人民交通出版社,2001.
[51]肖青.港口规划.大连:大连海事大学出版社,1999.
[52]孙光圻.国际海运政策.大连:大连海事大学出版社,1993.
[53]张页.我国进口石油运输安全问题的探讨.水运管理,2004,09(9):11-18.
[54]孟庆林等.中国石油海运发展分析及政策建议.中国远洋航务公告,2006,03(3):46-48.
[55]汪海等.构建避开霍尔木兹海峡的国际通道-中国与海湾油气安全连接战略.世界经济与政治,2006,01(1):48-54.
[56]张抗.中东石油出口流向变化及对中国的影响.西亚北非,2007,10(10):18-24.
[57]苏同江,王瑞亮等.浅析中国石油能源安全及供需对海上石油运输的影响.青岛远洋船 员学院学报,2004,25(4):40-43.
[58]徐舜华,岳小文等.国外石油海运发展及其对我国的启示.国际石油经济,2007,01(9):15-18.
[59]张新安,张迎新等.世界前10大石油进口国(地区)石油进口态势分析及对我国启示.国土资源情报,2003,07(7):1-10.
[60]Williamson Murray,Carriers and the Next Century,Thomas Hirschfeld & Peter Hore,ed.,Maritime Aviation,Viking Press,Royal Navy studies-CAN,1999.p.227.
[61]Michael Leifer,"The Security of Sea Lanes in Southeast Asia",Survival,Vol.25,No.1(January/February 1983),p.16.
[62]李亚芬.我国石油供求现状、问题及改善对策.国际金融研究,2005,03(3):65-70.