灰色系统理论在中国北方岩溶泉研究中的应用
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摘要
全球25%人口的生活用水、农业用水和工业用水基本都依赖岩溶地下水。中国是喀斯特发育最好的国家之一,全球大约1/4的岩溶面积分布在中国,若按碳酸盐岩的分布面积统计,包含地下埋藏,约占中国国土面积1/3,岩溶地下水资源储量占我国地下水资源总量的23%。
中国北方地区工农业生产及居民生活的主要供水水源取自岩溶地下水。特别在我国华北地区,岩溶含水层面积广大,地下水存储量大且流量稳定,对该地区的国民经济建设,有着十分重要的作用。近些年来,人们对岩溶含水层的研究不断增加。由于岩溶含水层对其所处的环境变化的响应十分敏感,因此作为主要的信息载体,岩溶泉的变化也间接地反映出气候变化和人类活动的作用程度。
最近几十年来,我国北方地区许多岩溶泉流量呈现出逐年下降的趋势。然而,该地区居民赖以生存的生产生活用水主要来源于岩溶地下水。岩溶地下水资源的日益衰减,直接导致该地区水资源紧张,甚至对该地区的经济发展产生影响。因此,分析引起我国北方地区岩溶泉流量下降的主要原因,将影响泉水流量变化的两个因素,气候变化和人类活动对岩溶泉的作用过程分别模拟出来,分析岩溶泉流量对这两个因素的分别响应过程,更能为岩溶地下水的可持续开发利用以及区域地下水规划保护提供科学,有针对性地依据。
本文选择的研究对象是中国北方地区最大的岩溶大泉—娘子关泉。通过资料分析,在1957-1978年这段时期内,娘子关泉流量基本上处于无人为因素干扰的自然状态。因此,我们利用1978年以前的娘子关泉流量数据,建立气候变化条件下泉水流量的灰色系统GM(1,1)分解模型,将该模型外推,模拟出1979-2006年气候变化条件下的泉水流量数据,与同期实测流量数据相比较,得到了人类活动对泉水流量衰减的贡献。结果表明,在1979-2006年这段时间内,气候的变化引起泉水流量衰减量为2.30m~3/s,人类活动影响引起泉水流量衰减量为2.07-3.05 m~3/s。在娘子关泉域,人类活动造成的泉水流量衰减量大于气候因素作用于泉水流量引起的衰减量。因此,相对于气候因素,人类活动对娘子关泉域的水文状况的影响是不容忽视的。在人类活动对泉水流量的影响中,地下水开采量仅占到其中的10%-50%;其他因素包括泉域修建水利设施、周边地区地下水开采、采矿伴随的矿坑排水、森林植被的破坏等等,这些因素对泉水流量衰减的贡献占到50%-90%。因此可以看出,传统的单纯以地下水开采量作为人类活动对泉水的影响是不合理的。本文将灰色系统理论应用于地下水研究中,成功地将气候变化和人类活动对泉水流量的影响过程分别模拟出来,揭示了泉水流量对气候变化及人类活动的分别响应过程,为岩溶地下水的可持续开发利用以及区域地下水规划保护提供科学,针对性地依据。
It is estimated that 25% of the global population is supplied largely or entirely by ground water from karst aquifers. China is one of the countries with the largest karst terrains. One-quarter of the world's total of terrestrial carbonate rock occurred in China. Carbonate rock outcrop widely at the surface or exit at shallow depths below the surface, covering 1.3 million km~2 or one-seventh of the country's territory in China. If covered and buried karsts are included, in addition to surface karst, up to one-third of the country is involved.
Karst groundwater is the main water supply of both agriculture and industry and life of the residents in north china because of its characteristics of vast reserves and high quality. According to statistics, karst groundwater accounts for 60-80% of water supply in many large and mid-sized cities such as Jinan, Taiyuan, Xuzhou, Yangquan, Zibo, Linfen, and Zaozhuang etc. However, in recent years, karst groundwater in north China are experiencing a remarkably change, tending to decrease. These problems are not only connection with climatic change but also closely with anthropogenic activities. With the acceleration of both economic development and population growth, water consumption and requirement have increased greatly since the 1980s.
Karst aquifers are generally considered to be particularly vulnerable to climatic change and anthropogenic impacts. Karst groundwater has become an important indicator to assess climatic change and anthropogenic effects on hydrological processes.
In North China, the largest karst spring, the Niangziguan Springs complex, has been declining since 1950s. This work studies the response of Niangziguan Springs to climatic change and anthropogenic influence respectively by discerning effects of human activities from climate change. In Niangziguan Springs Basin, the development of karst groundwater began in 1979. Accordingly, the spring discharge data were divided into two phases: pre-1979 and post-1979. In the first phase (i.e. 1957-1979) the spring discharge could believe to be affected under sole climate change, and in the second phase (i.e. 1979-2006) the spring discharge was influenced by both climate change and human activities. By using the spring flow data in the first phase, GM (1,1) decomposition model was set up, which described the spring flow processes under sole climate change. Extrapolating the model, we obtained the spring discharge under sole impact of climate in the second phase. Then through the water balance calculation, we discern the respective effects of climate change and human activities on depletion of spring discharges in the second phase. The results show that the contribution of climate change to depletion of Niangziguan Springs is 2.30m~3/s. The contribution of climate change only accounts for 75% of contribution of human activities. Therefore comparing with the climate change, anthropogenic activities are primary in affecting spring discharge at the Niangziguan Spring decline while climate change is secondary. Regarding to the contribution of human activities to spring discharge decline, groundwater abstraction only occupies about 10%-50% of the declines; 50%-90% of the declines are likely to be caused by other human activities, such as dewatering from coal mining, construction of hydraulic engineering, and deforestation.
中国北方地区工农业生产及居民生活的主要供水水源取自岩溶地下水。特别在我国华北地区,岩溶含水层面积广大,地下水存储量大且流量稳定,对该地区的国民经济建设,有着十分重要的作用。近些年来,人们对岩溶含水层的研究不断增加。由于岩溶含水层对其所处的环境变化的响应十分敏感,因此作为主要的信息载体,岩溶泉的变化也间接地反映出气候变化和人类活动的作用程度。
最近几十年来,我国北方地区许多岩溶泉流量呈现出逐年下降的趋势。然而,该地区居民赖以生存的生产生活用水主要来源于岩溶地下水。岩溶地下水资源的日益衰减,直接导致该地区水资源紧张,甚至对该地区的经济发展产生影响。因此,分析引起我国北方地区岩溶泉流量下降的主要原因,将影响泉水流量变化的两个因素,气候变化和人类活动对岩溶泉的作用过程分别模拟出来,分析岩溶泉流量对这两个因素的分别响应过程,更能为岩溶地下水的可持续开发利用以及区域地下水规划保护提供科学,有针对性地依据。
本文选择的研究对象是中国北方地区最大的岩溶大泉—娘子关泉。通过资料分析,在1957-1978年这段时期内,娘子关泉流量基本上处于无人为因素干扰的自然状态。因此,我们利用1978年以前的娘子关泉流量数据,建立气候变化条件下泉水流量的灰色系统GM(1,1)分解模型,将该模型外推,模拟出1979-2006年气候变化条件下的泉水流量数据,与同期实测流量数据相比较,得到了人类活动对泉水流量衰减的贡献。结果表明,在1979-2006年这段时间内,气候的变化引起泉水流量衰减量为2.30m~3/s,人类活动影响引起泉水流量衰减量为2.07-3.05 m~3/s。在娘子关泉域,人类活动造成的泉水流量衰减量大于气候因素作用于泉水流量引起的衰减量。因此,相对于气候因素,人类活动对娘子关泉域的水文状况的影响是不容忽视的。在人类活动对泉水流量的影响中,地下水开采量仅占到其中的10%-50%;其他因素包括泉域修建水利设施、周边地区地下水开采、采矿伴随的矿坑排水、森林植被的破坏等等,这些因素对泉水流量衰减的贡献占到50%-90%。因此可以看出,传统的单纯以地下水开采量作为人类活动对泉水的影响是不合理的。本文将灰色系统理论应用于地下水研究中,成功地将气候变化和人类活动对泉水流量的影响过程分别模拟出来,揭示了泉水流量对气候变化及人类活动的分别响应过程,为岩溶地下水的可持续开发利用以及区域地下水规划保护提供科学,针对性地依据。
It is estimated that 25% of the global population is supplied largely or entirely by ground water from karst aquifers. China is one of the countries with the largest karst terrains. One-quarter of the world's total of terrestrial carbonate rock occurred in China. Carbonate rock outcrop widely at the surface or exit at shallow depths below the surface, covering 1.3 million km~2 or one-seventh of the country's territory in China. If covered and buried karsts are included, in addition to surface karst, up to one-third of the country is involved.
Karst groundwater is the main water supply of both agriculture and industry and life of the residents in north china because of its characteristics of vast reserves and high quality. According to statistics, karst groundwater accounts for 60-80% of water supply in many large and mid-sized cities such as Jinan, Taiyuan, Xuzhou, Yangquan, Zibo, Linfen, and Zaozhuang etc. However, in recent years, karst groundwater in north China are experiencing a remarkably change, tending to decrease. These problems are not only connection with climatic change but also closely with anthropogenic activities. With the acceleration of both economic development and population growth, water consumption and requirement have increased greatly since the 1980s.
Karst aquifers are generally considered to be particularly vulnerable to climatic change and anthropogenic impacts. Karst groundwater has become an important indicator to assess climatic change and anthropogenic effects on hydrological processes.
In North China, the largest karst spring, the Niangziguan Springs complex, has been declining since 1950s. This work studies the response of Niangziguan Springs to climatic change and anthropogenic influence respectively by discerning effects of human activities from climate change. In Niangziguan Springs Basin, the development of karst groundwater began in 1979. Accordingly, the spring discharge data were divided into two phases: pre-1979 and post-1979. In the first phase (i.e. 1957-1979) the spring discharge could believe to be affected under sole climate change, and in the second phase (i.e. 1979-2006) the spring discharge was influenced by both climate change and human activities. By using the spring flow data in the first phase, GM (1,1) decomposition model was set up, which described the spring flow processes under sole climate change. Extrapolating the model, we obtained the spring discharge under sole impact of climate in the second phase. Then through the water balance calculation, we discern the respective effects of climate change and human activities on depletion of spring discharges in the second phase. The results show that the contribution of climate change to depletion of Niangziguan Springs is 2.30m~3/s. The contribution of climate change only accounts for 75% of contribution of human activities. Therefore comparing with the climate change, anthropogenic activities are primary in affecting spring discharge at the Niangziguan Spring decline while climate change is secondary. Regarding to the contribution of human activities to spring discharge decline, groundwater abstraction only occupies about 10%-50% of the declines; 50%-90% of the declines are likely to be caused by other human activities, such as dewatering from coal mining, construction of hydraulic engineering, and deforestation.
引文
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