城市供水管理信息工程研究
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摘要
一个城市的供水管理与自动化信息工程水平,对城市经济的发展与影响,对人民生活质量的提高,都有着十分重要的作用。目前,我国有关城市供水管理与自动化信息工程,在学术研究领域还很不成熟。因此,这使得我们更加关注对城市供水管理与自动化信息工程的研究。
本文首先通过梳理国际城市供水业管理经验基础上,对我国城市供水管理现状进行了深入研究,提出了我国城市供水管理竞争化改革的选择模式;然后研究了基于混沌时间序列模型的城市用水量预测以及供水管理信息工程模型与设计;最后研究了城市供水的计量与水价制定。
论文的主要创新之处如下:
1、较为细致的梳理评析了城市供水管理信息工程方面的基础理论,并以众多案例为基础获得了较为系统的实证结果。
2、系统的对我国城市供水管理体制、现状及存在的问题进行了详实的分析,并根据供水业的特殊性,首次提出了我国城市供水管理竞争化改革的模式选择。
3、首次将混沌理论应用于城市用水量预测研究中。基于虚假最近邻域概念,同时确定最佳嵌入维数和时间延迟,对用水量时间序列进行了相空间重构,求解出用水量时间序列的最大Lyapunov指数LE,通过对基于可预报尺度[1/LE]个输入神经元与基于嵌入维数m[m:2m:m:1]这两种人工神经网络结构的实证计算,发现后一种神经网络结构能提供更好的预测结果。
4、提出了供水管网运行状态性能的宏观模型及相应建模方法,建立了更为经济合理反映整个城市供水系统运行的调度决策模型,并提出了简化的正常管网运行状态下调度决策数学模型。
5、根据地理信息系统、全球卫星定位系统与决策支持系统的特点,首次提出了基于GIS、GPS、DSS的城市供水管理信息工程的设计方案,并应用于实际。
6构建了以城市供水管理信息工程为平台的“计量——定价”的数学关系,首次提出了在我国城市供水价格制定策略上应采用“调节性二部制”定价模式。
The management level and the automatic information engineering of water supplying system of a city play important roles in the urban economic development and its people’s living standard and quality. At present, the research on the cities’water supplying management and automatic information engineering is far from mature, which is what we focus in the thesis.
To begin with, by making use of the successful experience of international water supplying management, and based on the study of our city’s water supplying management, this thesis puts forward an alternative pattern to reform the Chinese cities’water supplying management, and studies the system architecture and design scheme of water management information engineering based on the amount of water consumption prediction by chaotic time sequence modeling. Then, the measuring techniques and pricing methods of urban water supply are advanced.
The main contents and contributions of this thesis are as follows:
1. The theories of urban water supplying management information engineering are specifically reviewed. A comparatively systematical positivist results are obtained based on the analysis of many industrial cases.
2. The present situation is systematically analyzed, and the management system and the existing problems of our cities’water supply are evaluated. Then we put forward the alternative pattern to reform the Chinese cities’water supplying management according to the characteristics of urban water supply.
3. The chaos theory is used to model and predict the amount of water consumption of a city. Based on the concept of quasi nearest border, the best embedding index and time delay, we reconstruct the time sequence, and compute the largest Lyapunov exponent (LE) of a time sequence. Experiments are done on the two man-made neural network structures based on the predictable measure [1/LE] of input neural centre and the embedding index m [m:2m:m:1], and the results illustrate that the latter neural network structure can offer better predictions.
4. We provide a macroscopic model of the working ability of water supplying network, and present the corresponding way of constructing the model. A more economic and practical dispatching decision-making model is built to support the decision-making in the water supplying system of a whole city. A simplified mathematical dispatching decision-making model is constructed to control the routine operation of the water supplying system.
5. By making use of the technologies of the geographical information system, the global satellite locating system, and the decision-making support system, the urban water supplying management information system are designed, and has been put into practice.
6. The mathematical relation of water measuring-pricing is constructed on the platform of urban water supplying management information engineering. We put forward the idea that the China should adopt the pricing pattern of“regulative binary form”as the strategy of water measuring and pricing.
本文首先通过梳理国际城市供水业管理经验基础上,对我国城市供水管理现状进行了深入研究,提出了我国城市供水管理竞争化改革的选择模式;然后研究了基于混沌时间序列模型的城市用水量预测以及供水管理信息工程模型与设计;最后研究了城市供水的计量与水价制定。
论文的主要创新之处如下:
1、较为细致的梳理评析了城市供水管理信息工程方面的基础理论,并以众多案例为基础获得了较为系统的实证结果。
2、系统的对我国城市供水管理体制、现状及存在的问题进行了详实的分析,并根据供水业的特殊性,首次提出了我国城市供水管理竞争化改革的模式选择。
3、首次将混沌理论应用于城市用水量预测研究中。基于虚假最近邻域概念,同时确定最佳嵌入维数和时间延迟,对用水量时间序列进行了相空间重构,求解出用水量时间序列的最大Lyapunov指数LE,通过对基于可预报尺度[1/LE]个输入神经元与基于嵌入维数m[m:2m:m:1]这两种人工神经网络结构的实证计算,发现后一种神经网络结构能提供更好的预测结果。
4、提出了供水管网运行状态性能的宏观模型及相应建模方法,建立了更为经济合理反映整个城市供水系统运行的调度决策模型,并提出了简化的正常管网运行状态下调度决策数学模型。
5、根据地理信息系统、全球卫星定位系统与决策支持系统的特点,首次提出了基于GIS、GPS、DSS的城市供水管理信息工程的设计方案,并应用于实际。
6构建了以城市供水管理信息工程为平台的“计量——定价”的数学关系,首次提出了在我国城市供水价格制定策略上应采用“调节性二部制”定价模式。
The management level and the automatic information engineering of water supplying system of a city play important roles in the urban economic development and its people’s living standard and quality. At present, the research on the cities’water supplying management and automatic information engineering is far from mature, which is what we focus in the thesis.
To begin with, by making use of the successful experience of international water supplying management, and based on the study of our city’s water supplying management, this thesis puts forward an alternative pattern to reform the Chinese cities’water supplying management, and studies the system architecture and design scheme of water management information engineering based on the amount of water consumption prediction by chaotic time sequence modeling. Then, the measuring techniques and pricing methods of urban water supply are advanced.
The main contents and contributions of this thesis are as follows:
1. The theories of urban water supplying management information engineering are specifically reviewed. A comparatively systematical positivist results are obtained based on the analysis of many industrial cases.
2. The present situation is systematically analyzed, and the management system and the existing problems of our cities’water supply are evaluated. Then we put forward the alternative pattern to reform the Chinese cities’water supplying management according to the characteristics of urban water supply.
3. The chaos theory is used to model and predict the amount of water consumption of a city. Based on the concept of quasi nearest border, the best embedding index and time delay, we reconstruct the time sequence, and compute the largest Lyapunov exponent (LE) of a time sequence. Experiments are done on the two man-made neural network structures based on the predictable measure [1/LE] of input neural centre and the embedding index m [m:2m:m:1], and the results illustrate that the latter neural network structure can offer better predictions.
4. We provide a macroscopic model of the working ability of water supplying network, and present the corresponding way of constructing the model. A more economic and practical dispatching decision-making model is built to support the decision-making in the water supplying system of a whole city. A simplified mathematical dispatching decision-making model is constructed to control the routine operation of the water supplying system.
5. By making use of the technologies of the geographical information system, the global satellite locating system, and the decision-making support system, the urban water supplying management information system are designed, and has been put into practice.
6. The mathematical relation of water measuring-pricing is constructed on the platform of urban water supplying management information engineering. We put forward the idea that the China should adopt the pricing pattern of“regulative binary form”as the strategy of water measuring and pricing.
引文
1 Easterby-Smith et al,1991,P.27
1. 世界银行报告:《改革基础设施:私有化、监管和竞争》2003.11
2. 世界银行报告:《改革基础设施:私有化、监管和竞争》2003.11
3 刘俊良、王鹏飞等:《城市用水健康循环及可持续城市水管理》载于《中国给水排水》2003.7 4 新加坡是一个新兴现代化国家,其水资源相对缺乏。新加坡的水业管理机制是很有特色和代表性的,对我们很有借鉴意义。 新加坡的水业管理机构——“公共事业供水部董事会”(PUB)是一个管理为 300 万新加坡人供水的供水系体的政府权威机构。税收和最高管理会面必须通过政府批准。“公共事业董事会”拥有一个发达的管理信息系统;制定并实施一个持续十年的发展计划。 “公共事业董事会”和政府相关部门通过如下步骤管理水资源和水供给:
(1)、严格的立法和监管职能 制定严格的反污染法律;采取严格的反污染加强措施;制定严格的对非法水流失和浪费惩罚的法规;
(2)、计划和调控职能 提前计划和实施水资源管理;制定合理的土地使用计划;对集水区的合理管理;全面测量;
(3)、水业的日常管理职能 大力度的查找漏洞;干路水管的更新和修复;定期的服务和维护保养;用水的合理报告;对生产、运输和分配过程中的水的质量的监控 ;
(4)、用户交流与服务职能 供水对话的全方位活动;对顾客的投诉做及时解答并迅速纠正错误;
(5)、技术改进和管理提升职能 用自动化和电脑化来缓解人力的短缺;先进技术和管理应用;合理且持续的培训知识丰富的专业人员;客户服务中的营销手段。参见严 伟:《21 世纪城市用水的策略性管理》载于中国水网 2001.2
5 参见严 伟:《21 世纪城市用水的策略性管理》2001.2
6 这里是一些有关各种费用项目的举例:(1)规定基本用水量的注册费;(2)对超过基本注册用量的用水收费;(3)水表保养费;(4)附加税或与资本投资费用有关的税费;(5)按排污量征污水费;(6)固定污水费;(7)用户服务管道保养费;(8)流域污染控制费;(9)废水排放费;(10)地方费用增值税。本文注。转引自严 伟:《21 世纪城市用水的策略性管理》2001.2
8 参见《美国水行业市场化的启示》天则公用事业研究中心 2004.2
10 这一部分较多地参考了中国水网文章《美加近年给排水行业市场化实例研究》2004.8
11 万里鹏:《水资源与水价分析》中国水网 2004.8
11 参见《2003 年城市建设统计公报》2004.3
13 资料来源:《中国国家统计局》
14 World Bank 《World Development Report》2003.4
15 贾绍凤 何希吾 夏 军:《中国水资源安全问题及对策》中国科学院院刊 2004 年第五期 2004.9
15 参见姜蓉,徐昙等《中国“水荒”报告》中国经营报,2004.5.12
17 资料来源:《中国水利科技网》2004.3.1
18 贾绍凤 何希吾 夏 军:《中国水资源安全问题及对策》中国科学院院刊 2004 年第五期 2004.9
19 受水资源的制约,北京地区的农业结构也在发生变化。北京市水利局宣传处的于处长告知记者,因为稻米的灌溉用水定额大约是其他种植作物的 2 倍,北京市决定用 3 年的时间逐步“消灭”20 万亩水稻田。提倡对农作物进行筛选,挑选需水量少又有较高经济效益的农作物。提倡发展生态农业。参见徐昙.《北京:首钢搬迁和不再种水稻》2003.12
20 参见《首都圈水资源安全保障体系建设》新浪网 2004.9
21 宋仁元、沈大年:《中国城市供水的发展和展望》中国水网 2001.11
22 参见建设部《关于加快市政公用行业市场化进程的意见》2003.12
23 资料来源:《中国水网水业投资资讯》
24 参见《中国水利科技网统计报告》中国统计局,中关村证券研发中心,WWW 2004.3.12
25参见《中国水利科技网统计报告》北京市统计局,中关村证券研发中心,WWW…… 2004.3.12
26 参见万里鹏《水资源与水价分析》中国水网 2004.8
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1. 世界银行报告:《改革基础设施:私有化、监管和竞争》2003.11
2. 世界银行报告:《改革基础设施:私有化、监管和竞争》2003.11
3 刘俊良、王鹏飞等:《城市用水健康循环及可持续城市水管理》载于《中国给水排水》2003.7 4 新加坡是一个新兴现代化国家,其水资源相对缺乏。新加坡的水业管理机制是很有特色和代表性的,对我们很有借鉴意义。 新加坡的水业管理机构——“公共事业供水部董事会”(PUB)是一个管理为 300 万新加坡人供水的供水系体的政府权威机构。税收和最高管理会面必须通过政府批准。“公共事业董事会”拥有一个发达的管理信息系统;制定并实施一个持续十年的发展计划。 “公共事业董事会”和政府相关部门通过如下步骤管理水资源和水供给:
(1)、严格的立法和监管职能 制定严格的反污染法律;采取严格的反污染加强措施;制定严格的对非法水流失和浪费惩罚的法规;
(2)、计划和调控职能 提前计划和实施水资源管理;制定合理的土地使用计划;对集水区的合理管理;全面测量;
(3)、水业的日常管理职能 大力度的查找漏洞;干路水管的更新和修复;定期的服务和维护保养;用水的合理报告;对生产、运输和分配过程中的水的质量的监控 ;
(4)、用户交流与服务职能 供水对话的全方位活动;对顾客的投诉做及时解答并迅速纠正错误;
(5)、技术改进和管理提升职能 用自动化和电脑化来缓解人力的短缺;先进技术和管理应用;合理且持续的培训知识丰富的专业人员;客户服务中的营销手段。参见严 伟:《21 世纪城市用水的策略性管理》载于中国水网 2001.2
5 参见严 伟:《21 世纪城市用水的策略性管理》2001.2
6 这里是一些有关各种费用项目的举例:(1)规定基本用水量的注册费;(2)对超过基本注册用量的用水收费;(3)水表保养费;(4)附加税或与资本投资费用有关的税费;(5)按排污量征污水费;(6)固定污水费;(7)用户服务管道保养费;(8)流域污染控制费;(9)废水排放费;(10)地方费用增值税。本文注。转引自严 伟:《21 世纪城市用水的策略性管理》2001.2
8 参见《美国水行业市场化的启示》天则公用事业研究中心 2004.2
10 这一部分较多地参考了中国水网文章《美加近年给排水行业市场化实例研究》2004.8
11 万里鹏:《水资源与水价分析》中国水网 2004.8
11 参见《2003 年城市建设统计公报》2004.3
13 资料来源:《中国国家统计局》
14 World Bank 《World Development Report》2003.4
15 贾绍凤 何希吾 夏 军:《中国水资源安全问题及对策》中国科学院院刊 2004 年第五期 2004.9
15 参见姜蓉,徐昙等《中国“水荒”报告》中国经营报,2004.5.12
17 资料来源:《中国水利科技网》2004.3.1
18 贾绍凤 何希吾 夏 军:《中国水资源安全问题及对策》中国科学院院刊 2004 年第五期 2004.9
19 受水资源的制约,北京地区的农业结构也在发生变化。北京市水利局宣传处的于处长告知记者,因为稻米的灌溉用水定额大约是其他种植作物的 2 倍,北京市决定用 3 年的时间逐步“消灭”20 万亩水稻田。提倡对农作物进行筛选,挑选需水量少又有较高经济效益的农作物。提倡发展生态农业。参见徐昙.《北京:首钢搬迁和不再种水稻》2003.12
20 参见《首都圈水资源安全保障体系建设》新浪网 2004.9
21 宋仁元、沈大年:《中国城市供水的发展和展望》中国水网 2001.11
22 参见建设部《关于加快市政公用行业市场化进程的意见》2003.12
23 资料来源:《中国水网水业投资资讯》
24 参见《中国水利科技网统计报告》中国统计局,中关村证券研发中心,WWW 2004.3.12
25参见《中国水利科技网统计报告》北京市统计局,中关村证券研发中心,WWW…… 2004.3.12
26 参见万里鹏《水资源与水价分析》中国水网 2004.8
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