中国金融发展、投资与经济增长
摘要
在金融发展与经济增长关系的理论研究中,“资本积累”和“技术创新”作为金融发展作用于经济增长的两条重要途径得到了广泛肯定。然而,这并不是一个能够清晰展开实证研究的主线。为了克服这一难题,本文选取金融发展与投资的关系对这两个途径进行了全面替代。投资活动是资本形成和生产率提升的载体和源泉,从而与金融发展影响经济增长的两个途径紧密联系在一起。
本文重点探讨了金融发展在投资形成和转化过程中的角色,总体框架既涵盖了投资在宏观和微观层面下的不同表现,同时也体现了投资来源的内部和外部性质。本文的核心内容包括以下几部分:第一,讨论金融发展如何通过促进“储蓄-投资”转化机制,使得社会资金从资本闲置方流动到资金需求方,从而更充分地扩大可用于投资的资源;第二,讨论金融发展如何引导资金从低生产率部门流向高生产率部门,即判断金融发展是否改善投资效率;第三,讨论金融发展水平的提高能否降低企业的融资约束进而影响企业的投资行为,借以对投资的微观层面予以考察;第四,鉴于外商直接投资对于发展中国家技术创新的重要作用,本文还分析了金融体系在FDI促进经济增长过程中对于技术溢出的中介传导作用。
Investment that has been regarded as a key source of capital formation and productivity growth has a close relationship between two channels: capital accumulation and technological innovation through which financial development can improve economic growth. This paper takes the nexus between financial development and investment as a substitute for the two channels and a principal line to investigate the role of financial development in the course of capital collected and transferred to investment and its frame incorporates the distinguish between not only the response of investment to financial development in micro-level and macro-level but also the internal and external source of investment. So, this paper can be classed to the research that focus on the mechanism by which financial development affects economic growth.
This paper is organized as follows:
Chapter 1 Introduction. First, this thesis discusses the academic and practical context on correlation among financial development, investment and economic growth briefly and emphasizes the trend in existing work and relation to the situation of a our country, which opens out the motivation and meaning of choosing this subject pithily. Secondly, some fundamental concepts and their definition are made clear, especially the meaning of the financial development. Again, based on a summary of existing work, the system of this thesis and methodologies in the corresponding part are put forward. At last, the structure and innovations of this thesis is introduced.
Chapter 2 A summary of existing work on correlation among financial development, investment and economic growth. In this part, the thesis comments some representative research on their successes and limitations by reviewing the literatures about theory of financial development, and channels through which financial development may affect investment respectively. Accordingly, some directions in the future research are pointed out. Moreover, feasibility and groundwork of this thesis is also embodied in this course.
Chapter 3 Financial development and transformation from saving to investment. Firstly, this chapter sums up the academic literatures about transformation from saving to investment. Secondly, using the panel data of 29 provinces during 1978-2005 in China this chapter refers to the methodology to test integration of financial system in Feldstein and Horioka(1980) to examine the effect of financial system to transformation from saving to investment and analyze the main reason of low efficiency in the course of saving convert to investment.
Chapter 4 Financial development and efficiency of investment. This chapter inspects the effect of financial development on the efficiency of investment, including the two most empirical, to ensure that the perspective of the comprehensiveness and the stability of the conclusions. The first part is based on point of view of the inter-industries efficiency of investment. This part referring to the methods for measure of capital allocation efficiency in industry in Wurgler (2000), using of the data of industrial enterprises in the 1990-2006 in China, evaluates the effect of financial development on the efficiency of investment through the relevance of capital allocation efficiency and financial development variables. The second part is based on point of view of capital allocation efficiency in region. This chapter investigates the effect of financial development on the iner-regions efficiency of investment through the relevance of the marginal net capital flow of provinces and marginal output of capital.
Chapter 5 Financial development and corporate investment. Using of the data of listed companies in China and the investment model under the situation of asymmetric information, this chapter investigates the relationship of financial development and business investment behavior from the micro-level departure. Empirical work includes two blue print: (1) Without classifying enterprises, the overall effect of financial development on financial constrains of corporate is verified. (2) According to the non-balanced characteristics of financial development in China and taking into account the presence of soft budget constraint, this chapter verifies the effect of financial development on financial constrains of corporate after a division of the enterprises.
Chapter 6 Financial development and foreign direct investment. This chapter discusses the role of domestic financial system in transferring the technological diffusion embodied in the FDI inflows. Firstly, this chapter has establishes a theoretical model and it comes to the preliminary conclusion. Then, using the bound testing approach a positive effect of technological diffusion in FDI inflows on short and long-term economic growth is testified under a certain level of development of financial system.
At last, the thesis draws a conclusion.
The primary conclusions of this thesis include:
Financial development has the features of "financial restraint" widely in developing countries in China, which reflects in the regional and structural split of financial system and that converting from savings to into investment is not smooth by the financial path. Capital flows inter-regions in China has being weak since reform and opening up, that is weaker than Japan and the OECD countries now, and shows a decline trend after the 1990s. This proves that China's financial system did not give full play the role of transferring savings into investment, or its positive role did not offset the negative effects of factors impede capital flows.
2. The efficiency of Industrial capital allocation indicates that although the efficiency of investment in China is higher in some particular year, but volatile sharply in the mass, but the overall level is behind the world average level, especially is hard to compare with the developed countries. The variables representing financial development in the size, structure and combinations of both have a weak correlation with efficiency of Industrial capital allocation. In the course of the economic development, under-investing to business with good prospects and excessive investing to business in the recession exits contemporarily. The results from inter-regional efficiency of capital allocation show that there is a tendency for capital to go to regions where capital has lower productivity in China. Moreover, from the source of capital, the investment by FDI and self-raised funds do respond positively to marginal product of capital, but government budget and loans exhibit a negative relationship with marginal product of capital.
3. This thesis finds that Chinese listed firms suffered from severe financing constraints at large during period of sample. Financing constraints bring the sensitivity of corporate investment to cash flow, but not over-investment. Financial development in China exerts influence on gathering corporate information in a mass, which has reduced financing constraints and weakened the extent of dependency relationship between investment and internal cash flow in corporate in spite of that the positive effect of financial development on financing constraints in too limited to eliminate it thoroughly; Moreover, distorted by budget soft constraints, the firms with private ownership are more financially constrained than firms with state ownership.
4. In theory, the developed financial system of recipient country can enhance the efficient allocation of financial resources and in this sense it improves the technological level and economic growth rate of host country. In both short- and long-run, financial sector in China has been acting a mechanism in transferring the benefit embodied in the foreign direct investment in promoting the domestic economic growth at last, which can be regarded as an evident that financial development can promote economic growth in China. Moreover, a threshold level of financial development, measured by the ratio of credit to private sector of state owned banks to GDP, can be calculate and above which FDI starts to have a positive impact on economic growth, and FDI will have a positive impact on growth in China where credit to private sector of state owned banks as a percentage of GDP is above 4.710% and 8.375% in short- and long-run, respectively.
Of course, the conclusion of this thesis needs to be confirmed by the correlative theories and practice in future.
Finally, since manyof content in this thesis is a maiden attempt and the ways and means of the research maybe limited, it is inevitable that anything important is ignored or anything wrong. So any suggestion or comment is welcomed, thank you in advance.
本文重点探讨了金融发展在投资形成和转化过程中的角色,总体框架既涵盖了投资在宏观和微观层面下的不同表现,同时也体现了投资来源的内部和外部性质。本文的核心内容包括以下几部分:第一,讨论金融发展如何通过促进“储蓄-投资”转化机制,使得社会资金从资本闲置方流动到资金需求方,从而更充分地扩大可用于投资的资源;第二,讨论金融发展如何引导资金从低生产率部门流向高生产率部门,即判断金融发展是否改善投资效率;第三,讨论金融发展水平的提高能否降低企业的融资约束进而影响企业的投资行为,借以对投资的微观层面予以考察;第四,鉴于外商直接投资对于发展中国家技术创新的重要作用,本文还分析了金融体系在FDI促进经济增长过程中对于技术溢出的中介传导作用。
Investment that has been regarded as a key source of capital formation and productivity growth has a close relationship between two channels: capital accumulation and technological innovation through which financial development can improve economic growth. This paper takes the nexus between financial development and investment as a substitute for the two channels and a principal line to investigate the role of financial development in the course of capital collected and transferred to investment and its frame incorporates the distinguish between not only the response of investment to financial development in micro-level and macro-level but also the internal and external source of investment. So, this paper can be classed to the research that focus on the mechanism by which financial development affects economic growth.
This paper is organized as follows:
Chapter 1 Introduction. First, this thesis discusses the academic and practical context on correlation among financial development, investment and economic growth briefly and emphasizes the trend in existing work and relation to the situation of a our country, which opens out the motivation and meaning of choosing this subject pithily. Secondly, some fundamental concepts and their definition are made clear, especially the meaning of the financial development. Again, based on a summary of existing work, the system of this thesis and methodologies in the corresponding part are put forward. At last, the structure and innovations of this thesis is introduced.
Chapter 2 A summary of existing work on correlation among financial development, investment and economic growth. In this part, the thesis comments some representative research on their successes and limitations by reviewing the literatures about theory of financial development, and channels through which financial development may affect investment respectively. Accordingly, some directions in the future research are pointed out. Moreover, feasibility and groundwork of this thesis is also embodied in this course.
Chapter 3 Financial development and transformation from saving to investment. Firstly, this chapter sums up the academic literatures about transformation from saving to investment. Secondly, using the panel data of 29 provinces during 1978-2005 in China this chapter refers to the methodology to test integration of financial system in Feldstein and Horioka(1980) to examine the effect of financial system to transformation from saving to investment and analyze the main reason of low efficiency in the course of saving convert to investment.
Chapter 4 Financial development and efficiency of investment. This chapter inspects the effect of financial development on the efficiency of investment, including the two most empirical, to ensure that the perspective of the comprehensiveness and the stability of the conclusions. The first part is based on point of view of the inter-industries efficiency of investment. This part referring to the methods for measure of capital allocation efficiency in industry in Wurgler (2000), using of the data of industrial enterprises in the 1990-2006 in China, evaluates the effect of financial development on the efficiency of investment through the relevance of capital allocation efficiency and financial development variables. The second part is based on point of view of capital allocation efficiency in region. This chapter investigates the effect of financial development on the iner-regions efficiency of investment through the relevance of the marginal net capital flow of provinces and marginal output of capital.
Chapter 5 Financial development and corporate investment. Using of the data of listed companies in China and the investment model under the situation of asymmetric information, this chapter investigates the relationship of financial development and business investment behavior from the micro-level departure. Empirical work includes two blue print: (1) Without classifying enterprises, the overall effect of financial development on financial constrains of corporate is verified. (2) According to the non-balanced characteristics of financial development in China and taking into account the presence of soft budget constraint, this chapter verifies the effect of financial development on financial constrains of corporate after a division of the enterprises.
Chapter 6 Financial development and foreign direct investment. This chapter discusses the role of domestic financial system in transferring the technological diffusion embodied in the FDI inflows. Firstly, this chapter has establishes a theoretical model and it comes to the preliminary conclusion. Then, using the bound testing approach a positive effect of technological diffusion in FDI inflows on short and long-term economic growth is testified under a certain level of development of financial system.
At last, the thesis draws a conclusion.
The primary conclusions of this thesis include:
Financial development has the features of "financial restraint" widely in developing countries in China, which reflects in the regional and structural split of financial system and that converting from savings to into investment is not smooth by the financial path. Capital flows inter-regions in China has being weak since reform and opening up, that is weaker than Japan and the OECD countries now, and shows a decline trend after the 1990s. This proves that China's financial system did not give full play the role of transferring savings into investment, or its positive role did not offset the negative effects of factors impede capital flows.
2. The efficiency of Industrial capital allocation indicates that although the efficiency of investment in China is higher in some particular year, but volatile sharply in the mass, but the overall level is behind the world average level, especially is hard to compare with the developed countries. The variables representing financial development in the size, structure and combinations of both have a weak correlation with efficiency of Industrial capital allocation. In the course of the economic development, under-investing to business with good prospects and excessive investing to business in the recession exits contemporarily. The results from inter-regional efficiency of capital allocation show that there is a tendency for capital to go to regions where capital has lower productivity in China. Moreover, from the source of capital, the investment by FDI and self-raised funds do respond positively to marginal product of capital, but government budget and loans exhibit a negative relationship with marginal product of capital.
3. This thesis finds that Chinese listed firms suffered from severe financing constraints at large during period of sample. Financing constraints bring the sensitivity of corporate investment to cash flow, but not over-investment. Financial development in China exerts influence on gathering corporate information in a mass, which has reduced financing constraints and weakened the extent of dependency relationship between investment and internal cash flow in corporate in spite of that the positive effect of financial development on financing constraints in too limited to eliminate it thoroughly; Moreover, distorted by budget soft constraints, the firms with private ownership are more financially constrained than firms with state ownership.
4. In theory, the developed financial system of recipient country can enhance the efficient allocation of financial resources and in this sense it improves the technological level and economic growth rate of host country. In both short- and long-run, financial sector in China has been acting a mechanism in transferring the benefit embodied in the foreign direct investment in promoting the domestic economic growth at last, which can be regarded as an evident that financial development can promote economic growth in China. Moreover, a threshold level of financial development, measured by the ratio of credit to private sector of state owned banks to GDP, can be calculate and above which FDI starts to have a positive impact on economic growth, and FDI will have a positive impact on growth in China where credit to private sector of state owned banks as a percentage of GDP is above 4.710% and 8.375% in short- and long-run, respectively.
Of course, the conclusion of this thesis needs to be confirmed by the correlative theories and practice in future.
Finally, since manyof content in this thesis is a maiden attempt and the ways and means of the research maybe limited, it is inevitable that anything important is ignored or anything wrong. So any suggestion or comment is welcomed, thank you in advance.
引文
1 Lucas, R. E., 1988, “On the mechanics of economic development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-42.
2 为支持这一观点,我们对 1978-2006 年名义 GDP 增长率和全社会固定资产投资增长率的时间序列做了 Granger 因果关系检验,结果显示投资是经济增长的 Granger 原因,而经济增长不是投资的Granger 原因。刘金全(2003)利用 1992-2001 年季度数据实证检验了固定资产投资和经济增长之间
3 [美]兹维·博迪和罗伯特·C·莫顿著,《金融学》,中国人民大学出版社,2000 年 10 月第 1 版。
4 博迪和莫顿(2000)原文中为“金融中介”,但 Maxwell(1994)给出的替代概念“金融中介体”更加准确,所以本文的定义与 Maxwell(1994)一致。“金融中介体(Financial Intermediaries)”是指那些便利市场参与者之间的以及整个经济的资金流动的机构或个人,主要有两种形式:存款金融机构(银行)和非存款(非银行)金融机构(Maxwell, 1994, p. 9)。由下可见,“金融中介体”有别于“金融中介”和“金融机构”的概念。
5 这里给出的金融体系功能来自于Merton和Bodie提出的“金融功能观”(functional perspective)。关于金融体系功能更详细的内容请参看Merton(1992),Merton和Bodie(1995, 2004)。 介于想要形成新组合的人们和拥有生产手段的人们之间。他本质上是属于一种发展的现象,虽然只是在没有中央权力指导整个社会进程的时候。他使新组合的实现成为可能,他好像是以社会的名义授权人们去形成这种新的组合,他是交换经济的主宰。”这一解释引自[美]约瑟夫·熊彼特:《经济发展理论:对于利润、资本、信贷利息和经济周期的考察》,何畏等译,商务印书馆 1990年版,第 82 页。
2 Schumpeter, J. A., 1939, “Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process”, New York: McGraw-Hill, pp111. 转自 Tapen(2001)第 65 页。
3 Goldsmith (1969)指出“金融发展就是指金融结构的变化,因此,研究金融发展必须以有关金融结构在短期或长期内变化的信息为基础。这些信息既可以是各个连续时期内的金融交易流量,也可以是不同时点上对金融结构的比较。”引自[美] 雷蒙德·W·戈德史密斯 著,周朔等 译,《金融结构与金融发展》,上海三联出版社,1994 年 10 月第 1 版,P397。
1 斯蒂格利茨:《经济学》(下),(中译本),中国人民大学出版社,1997 年 6 月版,第 295 页。
2 曼昆:《经济学原理》(下),三联书店,北京大学出版社,1999 年版,第 153 页。
3 参见 2003 年 2 月 8 日,《21 世纪经济报道》。
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[3] 陈飞翔、王溪若、郭英,2004:《经济增长、外商直接投资与政府选择》,《财贸经济》第 9 期。
[4] 龚六堂、谢丹阳,2004:《我国省份之间的要素流动和边际生产率的差异分析》,《经济研究》第 1 期。
[5] 韩立岩、蔡红艳,2002:《我国资本配置效率及其与金融市场关系评价研究》,《管理世界》第 1 期。
[6] 黄炳艺,2005:《结构与效率:中国金融发展问题研究》,厦门大学博士学位论文。
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[10] 李涛、徐昕,2005:《企业因索、金融结构与融资约束:基于中国企业规模与产权结构的实证分析》,《金融研究》第 5 期。
[11] 李治国、唐国兴,2003:《资本形成路径与资本存量调整模型》,《经济研究》第 2 期。
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[13] 林毅夫、刘明兴、章奇,2004:《政策性负担与企业的预算软约束:来自中国的实证研究》,《管理世界》第 8 期。
[14] 刘金全,2003:《投资波动性与经济周期之间的关联性分析》,《中国软科学》第 4 期。
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2 为支持这一观点,我们对 1978-2006 年名义 GDP 增长率和全社会固定资产投资增长率的时间序列做了 Granger 因果关系检验,结果显示投资是经济增长的 Granger 原因,而经济增长不是投资的Granger 原因。刘金全(2003)利用 1992-2001 年季度数据实证检验了固定资产投资和经济增长之间
3 [美]兹维·博迪和罗伯特·C·莫顿著,《金融学》,中国人民大学出版社,2000 年 10 月第 1 版。
4 博迪和莫顿(2000)原文中为“金融中介”,但 Maxwell(1994)给出的替代概念“金融中介体”更加准确,所以本文的定义与 Maxwell(1994)一致。“金融中介体(Financial Intermediaries)”是指那些便利市场参与者之间的以及整个经济的资金流动的机构或个人,主要有两种形式:存款金融机构(银行)和非存款(非银行)金融机构(Maxwell, 1994, p. 9)。由下可见,“金融中介体”有别于“金融中介”和“金融机构”的概念。
5 这里给出的金融体系功能来自于Merton和Bodie提出的“金融功能观”(functional perspective)。关于金融体系功能更详细的内容请参看Merton(1992),Merton和Bodie(1995, 2004)。 介于想要形成新组合的人们和拥有生产手段的人们之间。他本质上是属于一种发展的现象,虽然只是在没有中央权力指导整个社会进程的时候。他使新组合的实现成为可能,他好像是以社会的名义授权人们去形成这种新的组合,他是交换经济的主宰。”这一解释引自[美]约瑟夫·熊彼特:《经济发展理论:对于利润、资本、信贷利息和经济周期的考察》,何畏等译,商务印书馆 1990年版,第 82 页。
2 Schumpeter, J. A., 1939, “Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process”, New York: McGraw-Hill, pp111. 转自 Tapen(2001)第 65 页。
3 Goldsmith (1969)指出“金融发展就是指金融结构的变化,因此,研究金融发展必须以有关金融结构在短期或长期内变化的信息为基础。这些信息既可以是各个连续时期内的金融交易流量,也可以是不同时点上对金融结构的比较。”引自[美] 雷蒙德·W·戈德史密斯 著,周朔等 译,《金融结构与金融发展》,上海三联出版社,1994 年 10 月第 1 版,P397。
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3 参见 2003 年 2 月 8 日,《21 世纪经济报道》。
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[2] 白钦先、谭庆华,2004:《金融功能演进与金融发展》,中国金融学年会参会论文。
[3] 陈飞翔、王溪若、郭英,2004:《经济增长、外商直接投资与政府选择》,《财贸经济》第 9 期。
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[5] 韩立岩、蔡红艳,2002:《我国资本配置效率及其与金融市场关系评价研究》,《管理世界》第 1 期。
[6] 黄炳艺,2005:《结构与效率:中国金融发展问题研究》,厦门大学博士学位论文。
[7] 胡立法,2003:《索洛剩余与外资对我国经济增长的技术贡献率》,《世界经济研究》第 10 期。
[8] 江锦凡,2004:《外国直接投资在中国经济增长中的作用机制》,《世界经济》第 1 期。
[9] 江伟,李斌,2006:《金融发展与企业债务融资》,《中国会计评论》,第 1期。
[10] 李涛、徐昕,2005:《企业因索、金融结构与融资约束:基于中国企业规模与产权结构的实证分析》,《金融研究》第 5 期。
[11] 李治国、唐国兴,2003:《资本形成路径与资本存量调整模型》,《经济研究》第 2 期。
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[13] 林毅夫、刘明兴、章奇,2004:《政策性负担与企业的预算软约束:来自中国的实证研究》,《管理世界》第 8 期。
[14] 刘金全,2003:《投资波动性与经济周期之间的关联性分析》,《中国软科学》第 4 期。
[15] 刘金全、刘志刚,2005:《我国经济周期波动中实际产出波动性的动态模式与成因分析》,《经济研究》第 3 期。
[16] 刘涛,2005:《中国经济波动的信贷解释:增长与调控》,《世界经济》第 12期。
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[29] 田利辉,2005:《国有产权、预算软约束和中国上市公司杠杆治理》,《管理世界》第 7 期。
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[37] 张军、吴桂英、张吉鹏,2004:《中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000》,《经济研究》第 10 期。
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