基于模糊综合评价的煤层厚度稳定性研究
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摘要
对于《矿井地质规程》中的煤层稳定性评价指标,目前越来越多的专家学者提出了异议,仅凭可采性指数和变异系数并不能完整地反映煤层稳定性。怎样确定一种更合理的评价指标体系,是当前煤层稳定性评价研究的热点之一。
另外,由于地质体、地质作用和地质过程的多样性、变异性和复杂性,使得煤层厚度信息存在大量的不确定性、不精确成分,它们既具有随机性,也有模糊性。因此通过优选定量评价指标,可以利用模糊综合评判进行评价。
全文围绕利用多层次模糊综合评判对煤层厚度稳定性建立模型展开论述,主要开展了下列工作:
首先论述了影响煤层厚度稳定性的因素及影响分析和煤厚稳定性在煤厚数字特征、煤层结构及地质构造等方面的具体体现,以此为基础建立了煤层厚度稳定性模糊综合评判指标体系和量化方法;然后详细介绍了有关模糊数学的基础知识,如模糊集合、模糊矩阵、隶属函数、权重、模糊映射与模糊变换,重点论述了模糊多层次综合评判的原理和建模过程;最后以焦作矿区为例,对影响煤层厚度稳定性的各因素指标进行了详细的计算和统计分析,利用模糊多层次综合评判实现了对演马庄矿、小马村矿和中马矿的煤层厚度稳定性的评价。评价结果与传统评价结果相符合,达到了预期的目的。
本文最后对全文的主要工作做了总结,并对今后的研究方向进行了展望。
For indicators of the coal seam stability used by“Mining Geological Regulation”, a growing number of experts and scholars have raised objection. Index of admissibility and coefficient of variation do not reflect the seam stability effectively, How to establish a more rational evaluation index system is one of the focuses research at present.
Because geologic body, geological function and geological processes are diversity, variability and complexity, the information of coal seam is uncertainty and inaccurate. They are both random and fuzziness. Through the optimization quantitative evaluation index, we can evaluate useing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.
Around setting up the model of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the coal seam thickness stability, the full paper mainly carried out the following work: First, the factors impacted the stability of coal seam thickness; coal thick digital features, seam structure and geological structure are described. On the basis, the index system of coal seam thickness stability and quantitative approach are set up. Secondly the basis fuzzy match knowledge is described in detail, such as fuzzy sets, fuzzy matrix, membership function and weight, fuzzy composition and transformation. The principles and modeling process of fuzzy multi-level evaluation are focused. Finally, in Jiaozuo Mining Area, the factors indicators of coal seam thickness stability are carried out a detailed calculation and statistical analysis, and draw a conclusion about Yanmazhuang, Xiaomachun and Zhangmachun Mine useing multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The results consistent with the traditional ones, achieved the expected goals.
At last, the study contents and conclusion of the dissertation have been summarized, and the future research works have been forecasted.
另外,由于地质体、地质作用和地质过程的多样性、变异性和复杂性,使得煤层厚度信息存在大量的不确定性、不精确成分,它们既具有随机性,也有模糊性。因此通过优选定量评价指标,可以利用模糊综合评判进行评价。
全文围绕利用多层次模糊综合评判对煤层厚度稳定性建立模型展开论述,主要开展了下列工作:
首先论述了影响煤层厚度稳定性的因素及影响分析和煤厚稳定性在煤厚数字特征、煤层结构及地质构造等方面的具体体现,以此为基础建立了煤层厚度稳定性模糊综合评判指标体系和量化方法;然后详细介绍了有关模糊数学的基础知识,如模糊集合、模糊矩阵、隶属函数、权重、模糊映射与模糊变换,重点论述了模糊多层次综合评判的原理和建模过程;最后以焦作矿区为例,对影响煤层厚度稳定性的各因素指标进行了详细的计算和统计分析,利用模糊多层次综合评判实现了对演马庄矿、小马村矿和中马矿的煤层厚度稳定性的评价。评价结果与传统评价结果相符合,达到了预期的目的。
本文最后对全文的主要工作做了总结,并对今后的研究方向进行了展望。
For indicators of the coal seam stability used by“Mining Geological Regulation”, a growing number of experts and scholars have raised objection. Index of admissibility and coefficient of variation do not reflect the seam stability effectively, How to establish a more rational evaluation index system is one of the focuses research at present.
Because geologic body, geological function and geological processes are diversity, variability and complexity, the information of coal seam is uncertainty and inaccurate. They are both random and fuzziness. Through the optimization quantitative evaluation index, we can evaluate useing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.
Around setting up the model of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the coal seam thickness stability, the full paper mainly carried out the following work: First, the factors impacted the stability of coal seam thickness; coal thick digital features, seam structure and geological structure are described. On the basis, the index system of coal seam thickness stability and quantitative approach are set up. Secondly the basis fuzzy match knowledge is described in detail, such as fuzzy sets, fuzzy matrix, membership function and weight, fuzzy composition and transformation. The principles and modeling process of fuzzy multi-level evaluation are focused. Finally, in Jiaozuo Mining Area, the factors indicators of coal seam thickness stability are carried out a detailed calculation and statistical analysis, and draw a conclusion about Yanmazhuang, Xiaomachun and Zhangmachun Mine useing multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The results consistent with the traditional ones, achieved the expected goals.
At last, the study contents and conclusion of the dissertation have been summarized, and the future research works have been forecasted.
引文
[1]刘文锴.煤炭储量计算方法精度分析及其在河南省煤田中的应用[M].焦作矿业学院,1994.
[2]朱晓岚,何新义,陈于恒.矿体几何学[M].中国矿业学院出版社,1987.
[3]李瑞霞.基于ArcGIS地质统计学模块的煤厚空间变异特征分析[J].能源技术与管理,2006,(1):97-99.
[4]杨东潮,庞绪成,郭同举,等.山东焦家金矿主矿体变化程度的数学分析[J].黄金科学技术,2000,14(3):7-10.
[5]刘衡秋,刘钦甫,付正,等.淮南潘三矿区13-1#煤层空间分布特征及稳定性评价研究[J].煤田地质与勘探,2004,32(1):21-23.
[6]王强.煤层稳定性评价程序[J].煤矿现代化,2004,(3):26-27.
[7]汪云甲,黃宗文.矿产资源评价及其应用研究[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,1998.
[8]郭达志.矿体几何学---矿产资源信息与矿产经济学[J].四川测绘,1999,22(1):7-10.
[9]彭华.地质统计学在煤厚稳定性定量评价中的应用[J].山西煤炭,2002,22(2):31-34.
[10] Ripley B D. Spatial Statistics[M]. New York: Wiley, 1981.
[11] Oliver M A. Geostatistics, rare disease and the environment[A]. In: Fischer M. Scholten H J, Unwin D. Spatial Analytical Perspectives on GIS[C]. London: Taylor and Francis Ltd, 1996. 67-85.
[12] Gunnink J L, Burrough P A. Interactive spatial analysis of soil attribute patterns using exploratory data analysis(EDA) and GIS[A]. In: In: Fischer M. Scholten H J, Unwin D. Spatial Analytical Perspectives on GIS[C]. London: Taylor and Francis Ltd,1996.87-100.
[13] Deutsch C V,Journel A G. GSLIB, Geostatistical Software Library and User’s Guide[M].New York: Oxford University Press,1998.
[14]孙洪泉.地质统计学及其应用.徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,1990
[15]候景儒,郭光裕.矿产统计预测及地质统计学的理论与应用[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,1993.
[16] Goovserts P. Geostatistics for Natural Resource Evaluation. New York:Oxford University Press,1997
[17]侯景儒,尹镇南,李维明,等.实用地质统计学[M].北京:地质出版社,1998.
[18]万昌林,金铜标.地质统计学在矿产资源信息研究中的应用[J].有色冶金设计与研究,2002(4):18-21.
[19]吴立新,史文中.地理信息系统原理与算法[M].北京:科学出版社,2003.
[20] Tanaka H. Fault tree analysis by fuzzy probability [J].IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY,1983,R-32(5).
[21] LIoyd C D,Atkinson P M. Assessing uncertainty in estimates with ordinary and indicator Kriging[J].Computers & Geosciences,2001,27:929-937.
[22]苏亚汝.变异函数在确定广西大厂锡矿X号矿体勘探网度中的应用[J].MINERAL RESOURCES AND GEOLOGY,2001,15(6):755-758.
[23]崔洪庆,张振文,张平安,等.煤厚半变异函数的结构分析[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2002,22(3):310-312.
[24]汪云甲.资源信息学[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2002.
[25]刘衡秋,刘钦甫,张景飞.淮南煤田开采条件及其综采适应性评价研究[J].煤炭科学技术,2004,32(4):50-54.
[26]张仁铎.空间变异理论及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[27] Goovaerts P. Geostatistics for Natural Resource Evaluation[M]. New York: Oxford University Press, 1997.
[28]许进鹏,宋扬,邹银辉.构造引起煤厚变化的数理特征及其评价预测方法[J].矿业安全与环保,2005,32(1):6-10.
[29]杨勇,刘敏,李霖.基于遗传算法的Kriging空间分析及其在矿业中的应用[J].矿业研究与开发,2006,26(3)11-14.
[30]赵鹏大.定量地学方法及应用[M].北京,高等教育出版社,2004.
[31]杨伦标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用[M].广州,华南理工大学出版社,1993.
[32] ZHANG Dong-sheng,ZHANG Xian-chen,YAN Xue-feng. Fuzzy evaluation on geological conditions of coal seam in China[C]//Proceedings of the29th International Symposium on Computer Applications in the Mineral Industries. Netherlands:A A BALKEMA, 2001:159-162.
[33] LI Wei-min,DONG Guo-wei,WANG Hong-sheng,et al. Fuzzy evaluation of coal seam geological condition of fully-mechanized face in ten-million-ton mine[J].Journal of China University of Mining & Technology, 2005,15(3):208-212.
[34]朱志敏,沈冰,刘飞燕.辽宁阜新盆地煤层气地质条件模糊综合评判[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,17(3):77-79.
[35]王猛,题正义.模糊综合评判在深部煤层稳定性评价中的应用[J].矿业安全与环保,2006,33(5):48-50.
[36]刘建华,汪大发等.煤层稳定性的灰色评价之研究[J].煤炭学报,1998,23(4):406-411.
[37]徐凤银,龙荣生.矿井地质构造定量评价指标的优选途径[J].煤田地质与勘探,1991,(3):20-23.
[38]许惠龙,程爱国,等.中国煤炭资源综合评价的思路和方法[J].煤田地质与勘探,1997,25(1):25-28.
[39]韦重韬,曾勇,杨国勇,等.开发中期阶段的煤炭资源综合评价研究[J].煤田地质与勘探,2003,31(4):13-16.
[40]刘传志,汪云甲,孙本奎.基于组件式GIS工具MapX的煤炭资源开发条件评价系统[J].煤田地质与勘探,2006,34(2):8-12.
[41]储量计算规程[M].煤碳工业出版社北京1979
[42]柴登榜.矿井地质手册[M].煤碳工业出版社北京1979
[43]赵明鹏,方俊杰.矿井地质工作方法及其新进展[M].地质出版社北京1996
[44]吴冲龙,金友漁,王仁铎,等.聚煤盆地地质信息计算机处理的途径与方法[M].北京:地质出版社,1992
[45]谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用[M].华中科技大学出版社武汉2000,5第二版
[46]秦寿康.综合评价原理与应用[M].电子工业出版社北京2003,6
[47]陈奇南,梁洪峻.模糊集与粗糙集[J].计算机工程,2002.28(8):138-140.
[48]何宗宜.地图数据处理模型的原理与方法[M].武汉大学出版社武汉2004,2
[49]何新贵.模糊知识处理的理论与技术[M].1998北京:国防工业出版社
[50]王浩,庄钊文.模糊可靠性分析中的隶属函数的确定[J].电子产品可靠性与环境试验,2000.(4):2-7.
[2]朱晓岚,何新义,陈于恒.矿体几何学[M].中国矿业学院出版社,1987.
[3]李瑞霞.基于ArcGIS地质统计学模块的煤厚空间变异特征分析[J].能源技术与管理,2006,(1):97-99.
[4]杨东潮,庞绪成,郭同举,等.山东焦家金矿主矿体变化程度的数学分析[J].黄金科学技术,2000,14(3):7-10.
[5]刘衡秋,刘钦甫,付正,等.淮南潘三矿区13-1#煤层空间分布特征及稳定性评价研究[J].煤田地质与勘探,2004,32(1):21-23.
[6]王强.煤层稳定性评价程序[J].煤矿现代化,2004,(3):26-27.
[7]汪云甲,黃宗文.矿产资源评价及其应用研究[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,1998.
[8]郭达志.矿体几何学---矿产资源信息与矿产经济学[J].四川测绘,1999,22(1):7-10.
[9]彭华.地质统计学在煤厚稳定性定量评价中的应用[J].山西煤炭,2002,22(2):31-34.
[10] Ripley B D. Spatial Statistics[M]. New York: Wiley, 1981.
[11] Oliver M A. Geostatistics, rare disease and the environment[A]. In: Fischer M. Scholten H J, Unwin D. Spatial Analytical Perspectives on GIS[C]. London: Taylor and Francis Ltd, 1996. 67-85.
[12] Gunnink J L, Burrough P A. Interactive spatial analysis of soil attribute patterns using exploratory data analysis(EDA) and GIS[A]. In: In: Fischer M. Scholten H J, Unwin D. Spatial Analytical Perspectives on GIS[C]. London: Taylor and Francis Ltd,1996.87-100.
[13] Deutsch C V,Journel A G. GSLIB, Geostatistical Software Library and User’s Guide[M].New York: Oxford University Press,1998.
[14]孙洪泉.地质统计学及其应用.徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,1990
[15]候景儒,郭光裕.矿产统计预测及地质统计学的理论与应用[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,1993.
[16] Goovserts P. Geostatistics for Natural Resource Evaluation. New York:Oxford University Press,1997
[17]侯景儒,尹镇南,李维明,等.实用地质统计学[M].北京:地质出版社,1998.
[18]万昌林,金铜标.地质统计学在矿产资源信息研究中的应用[J].有色冶金设计与研究,2002(4):18-21.
[19]吴立新,史文中.地理信息系统原理与算法[M].北京:科学出版社,2003.
[20] Tanaka H. Fault tree analysis by fuzzy probability [J].IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY,1983,R-32(5).
[21] LIoyd C D,Atkinson P M. Assessing uncertainty in estimates with ordinary and indicator Kriging[J].Computers & Geosciences,2001,27:929-937.
[22]苏亚汝.变异函数在确定广西大厂锡矿X号矿体勘探网度中的应用[J].MINERAL RESOURCES AND GEOLOGY,2001,15(6):755-758.
[23]崔洪庆,张振文,张平安,等.煤厚半变异函数的结构分析[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2002,22(3):310-312.
[24]汪云甲.资源信息学[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2002.
[25]刘衡秋,刘钦甫,张景飞.淮南煤田开采条件及其综采适应性评价研究[J].煤炭科学技术,2004,32(4):50-54.
[26]张仁铎.空间变异理论及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[27] Goovaerts P. Geostatistics for Natural Resource Evaluation[M]. New York: Oxford University Press, 1997.
[28]许进鹏,宋扬,邹银辉.构造引起煤厚变化的数理特征及其评价预测方法[J].矿业安全与环保,2005,32(1):6-10.
[29]杨勇,刘敏,李霖.基于遗传算法的Kriging空间分析及其在矿业中的应用[J].矿业研究与开发,2006,26(3)11-14.
[30]赵鹏大.定量地学方法及应用[M].北京,高等教育出版社,2004.
[31]杨伦标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用[M].广州,华南理工大学出版社,1993.
[32] ZHANG Dong-sheng,ZHANG Xian-chen,YAN Xue-feng. Fuzzy evaluation on geological conditions of coal seam in China[C]//Proceedings of the29th International Symposium on Computer Applications in the Mineral Industries. Netherlands:A A BALKEMA, 2001:159-162.
[33] LI Wei-min,DONG Guo-wei,WANG Hong-sheng,et al. Fuzzy evaluation of coal seam geological condition of fully-mechanized face in ten-million-ton mine[J].Journal of China University of Mining & Technology, 2005,15(3):208-212.
[34]朱志敏,沈冰,刘飞燕.辽宁阜新盆地煤层气地质条件模糊综合评判[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,17(3):77-79.
[35]王猛,题正义.模糊综合评判在深部煤层稳定性评价中的应用[J].矿业安全与环保,2006,33(5):48-50.
[36]刘建华,汪大发等.煤层稳定性的灰色评价之研究[J].煤炭学报,1998,23(4):406-411.
[37]徐凤银,龙荣生.矿井地质构造定量评价指标的优选途径[J].煤田地质与勘探,1991,(3):20-23.
[38]许惠龙,程爱国,等.中国煤炭资源综合评价的思路和方法[J].煤田地质与勘探,1997,25(1):25-28.
[39]韦重韬,曾勇,杨国勇,等.开发中期阶段的煤炭资源综合评价研究[J].煤田地质与勘探,2003,31(4):13-16.
[40]刘传志,汪云甲,孙本奎.基于组件式GIS工具MapX的煤炭资源开发条件评价系统[J].煤田地质与勘探,2006,34(2):8-12.
[41]储量计算规程[M].煤碳工业出版社北京1979
[42]柴登榜.矿井地质手册[M].煤碳工业出版社北京1979
[43]赵明鹏,方俊杰.矿井地质工作方法及其新进展[M].地质出版社北京1996
[44]吴冲龙,金友漁,王仁铎,等.聚煤盆地地质信息计算机处理的途径与方法[M].北京:地质出版社,1992
[45]谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用[M].华中科技大学出版社武汉2000,5第二版
[46]秦寿康.综合评价原理与应用[M].电子工业出版社北京2003,6
[47]陈奇南,梁洪峻.模糊集与粗糙集[J].计算机工程,2002.28(8):138-140.
[48]何宗宜.地图数据处理模型的原理与方法[M].武汉大学出版社武汉2004,2
[49]何新贵.模糊知识处理的理论与技术[M].1998北京:国防工业出版社
[50]王浩,庄钊文.模糊可靠性分析中的隶属函数的确定[J].电子产品可靠性与环境试验,2000.(4):2-7.