基于不确定性理论的宝鸡市水资源优化配置与评价模型研究
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摘要
我国北方城市水资源相对匮乏,加上长期以来不尽合理利用,出现了诸如：水资源利用效率较低、水资源开发利用不平衡、地下水开采过量、用水浪费严重、河流水体污染严重、水资源供需不平衡等问题,水资源已经成为制约地区社会经济发展的重要影响因素之一。宝鸡市是北方缺水城市之一。随着宝鸡市人口、经济、社会的发展,城市用水量将迅速增加,如何依据宝鸡市发展现状,制定合理的水资源利用与保护方案,实现城市的可持续发展,已经成为急需解决的问题。
宝鸡市的供水水源主要有地表水、地下水、处理回用的污废水以及从外流域调入的水等,具有多水源的特征。由于受水文、气象及工程建设等因素影响,不同水源的来水规律不同,其开发利用的成本和效益不同,对生态环境的影响不同。水资源的开发和利用具有复杂性及不确定性特征。应用不确定性理论寻找合理的水资源利用方案,对多水源多用户系统联合优化调度,可以充分发挥水资源系统的整体效益,解决水资源供需矛盾,缓解城市水资源紧缺问题。
本文在对宝鸡市水资源现状进行调查的基础上,针对宝鸡市水资源利用不尽合理、水资源短缺问题,进行了以下研究：
(1)全面分析了城市的水资源需求、供水增长趋势、供需发展态势,运用灰色、指标等预测方法,预测了宝鸡市2015、2020年的农业、生活、工业及环境生态等方面的用水量；依据宝鸡市供水规划和历史供水资料,分析不同保证率下可供水量的变化区间；将宝鸡市水资源利用系统概化为两个多水源多用户模型.。
(2)在以上基础上,在多水源与多用户之间,建立了以水资源整体经济效益、社会效益及环境效益为目标的水资源优化配置经济模型,依据模糊理论求解该模型；建立基于不确定性理论的水资源优化配置随机相关机会规划模型,应用Monte Carlo模拟与神经网络、遗传算法相结合的混合智能算法求解该模型；采用模糊综合评价、TOPSIS、层次分析法等建立方案评价模型,进行方案优选。
研究结论表明,在考虑宝鸡市水资源利用系统的不确定性基础上,建立的水资源优化配置,优于传统方案结果,能更好解决城市供用水关系问题,提高水资源利用整体效益,合理保护生态环境。
Due to the relative scarcity of water resources in northern city of China, coupled with the long-term irrational utilization, there has been such as:low utilization efficiency of water resource, Imbalance between development and utilization of water resource, excessive exploitation of groundwater, serious pollution and waste of water resources, the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources gets more aculeate, serious water supply and demand imbalances and other issues. Water resource is the indispensable natural resources to human beings and has become one of the main limiting factors to sustainable development of social economy in BaoJi city. The development of rational water utilization and protection programs in order to achieve sustainable development of cities has become a problem urgent to be solved.
Water supply sources in Baoji city are mainly surface water, groundwater, sewage treatment and reuse of wastewater as well as water transferred from outside the basin and so on, with multiple sources of water supply features. Due to hydrological, meteorological and engineering construction factors, different water source conditions with different variation law, different costs and benefits of development and utilization, also different effects on the ecological environment. The complexity and uncertainty exist in the development and utilization of water resources. Application the uncertainty theory to find a rational development and utilization programs of water resources. In order to maximize the benefit of the whole system, solve the contradiction between water supply and demand, and alleviate the water shortage issues through joint optimization dispatching of multi-source multi-user of water system.
In this paper, based on the status quo of water resources in Baoji city, conducted the following research.
(1) By investigating and evaluating the present situation of Baoji water resources, we have analyzed the utilization and exploitation of the water resources and predicted the water consumption of agriculture, life, industry and ecological environment in year 2015 and 2020 with the development of society. By analyzing the Baoji Municipal water supply planning and historical data, obtained the water supply ranges under the different guaranteed rate.
(2) After analyzing and generalizing the water resources system of BaoJi city, five different models has been established. Two models are based on linear programming theory and solved with modified simplex algorithm. Considering the uncertainty and risk in the system, the other models are based on fuzzy programming, dependent chance goal programming, and solved with fuzzy theory and with hybrid intelligent algorithm combined with stochastic, GA and ANN. Using the Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, TOPSIS, AHP methods establish evaluation models to carry out the program optimization.
This study concluded that, by considering the uncertainty in water resources system, and established the water resources optimal allocation programs are superior to the traditional program outcomes, the former can better address the relationship between water supply and consumption, improving the whole benefit of water system, and better protect the ecological environment in Baoji city. The conclusions in this paper have a significant practical meaning to the sustainable and coordinated development of BaoJi city.
宝鸡市的供水水源主要有地表水、地下水、处理回用的污废水以及从外流域调入的水等,具有多水源的特征。由于受水文、气象及工程建设等因素影响,不同水源的来水规律不同,其开发利用的成本和效益不同,对生态环境的影响不同。水资源的开发和利用具有复杂性及不确定性特征。应用不确定性理论寻找合理的水资源利用方案,对多水源多用户系统联合优化调度,可以充分发挥水资源系统的整体效益,解决水资源供需矛盾,缓解城市水资源紧缺问题。
本文在对宝鸡市水资源现状进行调查的基础上,针对宝鸡市水资源利用不尽合理、水资源短缺问题,进行了以下研究：
(1)全面分析了城市的水资源需求、供水增长趋势、供需发展态势,运用灰色、指标等预测方法,预测了宝鸡市2015、2020年的农业、生活、工业及环境生态等方面的用水量；依据宝鸡市供水规划和历史供水资料,分析不同保证率下可供水量的变化区间；将宝鸡市水资源利用系统概化为两个多水源多用户模型.。
(2)在以上基础上,在多水源与多用户之间,建立了以水资源整体经济效益、社会效益及环境效益为目标的水资源优化配置经济模型,依据模糊理论求解该模型；建立基于不确定性理论的水资源优化配置随机相关机会规划模型,应用Monte Carlo模拟与神经网络、遗传算法相结合的混合智能算法求解该模型；采用模糊综合评价、TOPSIS、层次分析法等建立方案评价模型,进行方案优选。
研究结论表明,在考虑宝鸡市水资源利用系统的不确定性基础上,建立的水资源优化配置,优于传统方案结果,能更好解决城市供用水关系问题,提高水资源利用整体效益,合理保护生态环境。
Due to the relative scarcity of water resources in northern city of China, coupled with the long-term irrational utilization, there has been such as:low utilization efficiency of water resource, Imbalance between development and utilization of water resource, excessive exploitation of groundwater, serious pollution and waste of water resources, the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources gets more aculeate, serious water supply and demand imbalances and other issues. Water resource is the indispensable natural resources to human beings and has become one of the main limiting factors to sustainable development of social economy in BaoJi city. The development of rational water utilization and protection programs in order to achieve sustainable development of cities has become a problem urgent to be solved.
Water supply sources in Baoji city are mainly surface water, groundwater, sewage treatment and reuse of wastewater as well as water transferred from outside the basin and so on, with multiple sources of water supply features. Due to hydrological, meteorological and engineering construction factors, different water source conditions with different variation law, different costs and benefits of development and utilization, also different effects on the ecological environment. The complexity and uncertainty exist in the development and utilization of water resources. Application the uncertainty theory to find a rational development and utilization programs of water resources. In order to maximize the benefit of the whole system, solve the contradiction between water supply and demand, and alleviate the water shortage issues through joint optimization dispatching of multi-source multi-user of water system.
In this paper, based on the status quo of water resources in Baoji city, conducted the following research.
(1) By investigating and evaluating the present situation of Baoji water resources, we have analyzed the utilization and exploitation of the water resources and predicted the water consumption of agriculture, life, industry and ecological environment in year 2015 and 2020 with the development of society. By analyzing the Baoji Municipal water supply planning and historical data, obtained the water supply ranges under the different guaranteed rate.
(2) After analyzing and generalizing the water resources system of BaoJi city, five different models has been established. Two models are based on linear programming theory and solved with modified simplex algorithm. Considering the uncertainty and risk in the system, the other models are based on fuzzy programming, dependent chance goal programming, and solved with fuzzy theory and with hybrid intelligent algorithm combined with stochastic, GA and ANN. Using the Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, TOPSIS, AHP methods establish evaluation models to carry out the program optimization.
This study concluded that, by considering the uncertainty in water resources system, and established the water resources optimal allocation programs are superior to the traditional program outcomes, the former can better address the relationship between water supply and consumption, improving the whole benefit of water system, and better protect the ecological environment in Baoji city. The conclusions in this paper have a significant practical meaning to the sustainable and coordinated development of BaoJi city.
引文
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