中国入境旅游流驱动力研究
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摘要
旅游流是现代旅游业发展所依赖的客观前提,也是旅游学研究的核心问题之一。目前国内有关入境旅游流的研究侧重于时空特征、扩散规律的描述分析,而入境旅游流驱动力的研究还有很大发展空间。入境旅游流作为一种大规模人口流动的社会现象,其驱动力研究有着复杂性和多面性的特征。美国学者Kurt Godel曾说过,在认识世界的过程中,排除某一种方式或视角所得到的结果都是不完备的。若单纯运用目的地统计年鉴数据来探究旅游流驱动力,则容易陷入机械唯物主义的泥沼；若单纯采用旅游者问卷调查数据来分析旅游流驱动力,则容易踏入个人决定论的深渊。笔者在对国内外相关文献梳理后,发现学者们多从自身固有的专业背景出发来开展旅游流驱动力方面的研究,多视角、多方法、系统性的研究尚未出现。然而,社会科学的特点决定了旅游流驱动力研究的复杂性,单一运用某种视角或方法都难得到令人满意的诠释。在社会科学研究中,人既是社会客体,又是社会主体；既受社会规律支配,又具有一定的主观能动性。所以,有必要从目的地和旅游者的双重视角来对入境旅游流驱动力进行研究。
本研究从论文选题到章节撰写、从市场调查到数据收集都是在国家自然科学基金项目《中国典型区域入境旅游流东—西递进空间演化机理研究》的支持下完成的。本文以中国入境旅游流驱动力为研究对象,从目的地和旅游者两个视角,依据历年来政府权威部门发布的统计数据资料和国家自然科学基金项目组在国内热点旅游城市实地调查的“一手数据资料”,运用SPSS、LISREL、EXCEL等软件,采用Pearson相关分析、因子分析、方差分析、结构方程模型分析和类别性主成分分析等多种定量方法,系统、深入地探析入境旅游流驱动机理,在此基础上通过对所得研究结果的定性思辨,综合构建出中国入境旅游流的驱动模式。研究成果对制定各省(自治区、直辖市)旅游发展规划、开发旅游产品、实施市场拓展都具有一定的理论和实践意义。
本文的主要工作和结论有以下几个方面：
(1)第3章,目的地视角：入境旅游流驱动力的属性相关分析。从目的地视角,以入境旅游发展数据和地区产业发展数据为材料,采用相关分析的方法,对各省区目的地的自身属性在旅游流驱动中的影响力进行实证考量。结果发现,地区经济发展水平是最大的入境旅游流驱动力量,其次是交通区位可达和旅游接待能力,驱动力量最弱是旅游资源属性。除无相关性的指标外,与入境旅游人次相关系数最高的是进出口额,其次是优良星级饭店,最低的是优良级景区；与旅游外汇收入相关性最强的是进出口额,其次是航空吞吐量,最低的是优良级景区；与入境外国人次关联度最高的依然是进出口额,其次是航空吞吐量,最低的仍旧是优良级景区。
(2)第4章,旅游者视角：入境旅游流驱动力的心理推拉分析。从旅游者视角,以国家自然科学基金项目组的调查数据为材料,探究我国入境游客群体的心理驱动力量。本研究采用较为理想的“推-拉”理论,运用因子分析、方差分析和结构方程模型等方法,论证推拉力对旅游者的驱动机理,并进而识别判断推力与拉力之间的心理关联作用。分析得出,推力维度的两个驱动因子为“健康社交”、“求知求异”,拉力维度的两个驱动因子为“设施环境”、“核心吸引”。不同性别、年龄、学历、收入及国家(文化)群体的入境旅游者之间在各因子层面均存在差异性。在推拉关系方面,推力维度的“健康社交”因子和拉力维度的“设施环境”因子、推力维度的“求知求异”因子和拉力维度的“核心吸引”因子之间的关联性相对较大。
(3)第5章,一个双重视角的解释：入境旅游流驱动模式构建。对旅游学中同一现象运用不同的视角研究,结论会显示出不同角度的合理性。以目的地和旅游者的双重视野,在对入境旅游流驱动力进行综合分析后,提出中国入境旅游流的驱动模式。从目的地角度审视,入境旅游流这一社会事实可以通过目的地其他社会事实来解释；从旅游者角度探究,入境旅游流这一社会现象需要还原到个体层面,从个体的动机和感知等方面对之加以说明。
本文试图在以下几方面做出创新：
(1)在研究视角上,充分认识到旅游活动主体既受到社会规律影响,又具有主观能动性,分别以目的地属性和旅游者心理为出发点,以统计年鉴数据和问卷调查数据为基础,各自得出了不同角度的旅游流驱动力。
(2)以定量研究为基础,结合定性方法分析,将目的地和旅游者视野下的旅游流驱动力研究成果进行错位性分析和互补性思辨,构建了双重视角下的入境旅游流驱动模式。
(3)在国内首次提出了心理层面的推力和拉力存在相互关联的假设,并得到了两类感知拉力可以分别提高两类动机推力的验证。扩允了旅游者心理驱动力研究的范畴,突破了推力和拉力多被作为两个完全独立的影响力进行研究的局限。同时,运用方差分析测度了推拉维度各因子之间的相关性及影响因素。
(4)在对词源出处和相关学科概念讨论的基础上,对旅游流驱动力做出了明确的定义。驱动力的范畴不应过于泛化,而应仅指具有正向效应的作用力。
Tourist flow is the premise of tourism industry and also is one of the core issues of tourism research. At present, the researchment of tourist flow is focused on spatial and temporal characteristics, diffusion of tourist flow inbound, while the tourist flow driving force is weak. Tourist flow as a social phenomenon of mass population movements, its driving forces are complex and multifaceted. American scholar Kurt Godel has said the result will be not completed if you understand the world excluding a certain way or view. For example, the driving force of tourist flow like the kernel of walnut, we need to use the hammer to strike from its different sides. If purely using the destination statistical annual data, we can easily fall into the mechanical materialism; If only using the survey data to analyze the tourist flow driving force, we can easily enter the personal decision of the abyss. Sorting the related literature, I find that the scholars develop the tourist flow driving forces from their own professional background. However, the driving force of tourist flow is complicated, a single perspective or method is weak. In social scientific research, people are both social object and social subject; received by the dominant social law, but also has some initiative. Therefore, it is necessary that the research of inbound tourist flow is conducted from the destination and tourist's dual angles.
All of the work about this research is supported by a grant from National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40771058). In this paper, the driving force of the inbound tourist flow is the research object. From the two perspectives of destination and tourist, the author used Pearson correlation analysis, factor analysis, variance analysis, structural equation model analysis and types of principal component analysis and other quantitative methods by the SPSS, the LISREL, and the EXCEL. On the basis of findings obtained through qualitative speculation, the author constructed a model of the tourist-flow-driven. The results have certain theory and practice significance for the development project, the development tourism product and the market development.
The main work and conclusions are the following:
(1) Viewing from the destination, the author use the correlation analysis method to find the strength of the provinces own property in the tourist destinations. The result is as follows:the economy is the greatest one, then traffic and service are next, the last one is tourism resource. In addition no correlation indicators, The highest correlation coefficient with the number of inbound tourists is import and export volume, followed by good-star hotels, the lowest level is an excellent area; and the tourism foreign exchange earnings is most relevant with import and export volume weight, followed by air throughput, the lowest level is the high-level scenic spot index; associated with the entry of foreign visitors is still the highest degree of import and export volume, followed by air throughput, the lowest level is still the high-level scenic spot index.
(2) Viewing from the tourist, the author used factor analysis, variance analysis and structural equation modeling and other methods to demonstrate push and pull are driving forces for tourists, and distinguish the psychological associations between push and pull forces. The two driving factors of the push dimension are "social and health","knowledge and novelty", the two driving factors of the pull dimension are "facility and environment", "core attraction." There are differences between the levels of each factor by different sexes, different ages, different education, different incomes and different countries (cultural) groups. In the push-pull relationship, the relationship between factors is large, such as, the "social and health" factor and the "facility and environment" factor, the "knowledge and novelty" factors and the "core attraction".
(3) Researching the same phenomenon in tourism with different perspectives, we can find that the conclusion will show the rationality of different angles. By destination and tourist's dual fields of vision, in carries on the generalized analysis after the entry traveling class driving influence, the author proposed a model of the tourist-flow-driven. From the destination view, the inbound tourist flow may explain through the destination other social fact:From the tourist view, the inbound tourist flow need to return to the individual stratification plane, and be explained by individual motive, sensation and the other factors.
This article attempts to make innovations in the following areas:
(1) In the research perspective, the author fully awared on that the tourists are affected by both the laws of society and initiative. Then, from the destination attributes and tourists psychology respectively, the author obtained tourist flow driving force in different angle.
(2) The author proposed the psychological stratification plane's push force and the pull force existence incident cross-correlation's supposition for the first time in domestic, and obtained two kind of sensation pull forces to be possible to enhance two kind of motive push forces. Expanded the research category of the tourist psychology driving force, this author broke through the push force and the pull force which were taken as two completely independent influences. At the same time, the variance analysis measures were used to measure the dimensions of the push and pull factors.
(3) Taking the quantitative investigation and the qualitative method analysis as the foundation, carrying on the dislocation analysis and the complementarity speculation under the destination and the tourist field of vision's tourist flow driving influence research results, the author has constructed a model of the tourist-flow-driven under the dual angle of view.
(4) Based on Etymological origin in the concepts and related disciplines, the driving force of the tourist flow was made a clear definition. Driving force should not be increased unlimited, but should refer only to have a positive effect on the force.
本研究从论文选题到章节撰写、从市场调查到数据收集都是在国家自然科学基金项目《中国典型区域入境旅游流东—西递进空间演化机理研究》的支持下完成的。本文以中国入境旅游流驱动力为研究对象,从目的地和旅游者两个视角,依据历年来政府权威部门发布的统计数据资料和国家自然科学基金项目组在国内热点旅游城市实地调查的“一手数据资料”,运用SPSS、LISREL、EXCEL等软件,采用Pearson相关分析、因子分析、方差分析、结构方程模型分析和类别性主成分分析等多种定量方法,系统、深入地探析入境旅游流驱动机理,在此基础上通过对所得研究结果的定性思辨,综合构建出中国入境旅游流的驱动模式。研究成果对制定各省(自治区、直辖市)旅游发展规划、开发旅游产品、实施市场拓展都具有一定的理论和实践意义。
本文的主要工作和结论有以下几个方面：
(1)第3章,目的地视角：入境旅游流驱动力的属性相关分析。从目的地视角,以入境旅游发展数据和地区产业发展数据为材料,采用相关分析的方法,对各省区目的地的自身属性在旅游流驱动中的影响力进行实证考量。结果发现,地区经济发展水平是最大的入境旅游流驱动力量,其次是交通区位可达和旅游接待能力,驱动力量最弱是旅游资源属性。除无相关性的指标外,与入境旅游人次相关系数最高的是进出口额,其次是优良星级饭店,最低的是优良级景区；与旅游外汇收入相关性最强的是进出口额,其次是航空吞吐量,最低的是优良级景区；与入境外国人次关联度最高的依然是进出口额,其次是航空吞吐量,最低的仍旧是优良级景区。
(2)第4章,旅游者视角：入境旅游流驱动力的心理推拉分析。从旅游者视角,以国家自然科学基金项目组的调查数据为材料,探究我国入境游客群体的心理驱动力量。本研究采用较为理想的“推-拉”理论,运用因子分析、方差分析和结构方程模型等方法,论证推拉力对旅游者的驱动机理,并进而识别判断推力与拉力之间的心理关联作用。分析得出,推力维度的两个驱动因子为“健康社交”、“求知求异”,拉力维度的两个驱动因子为“设施环境”、“核心吸引”。不同性别、年龄、学历、收入及国家(文化)群体的入境旅游者之间在各因子层面均存在差异性。在推拉关系方面,推力维度的“健康社交”因子和拉力维度的“设施环境”因子、推力维度的“求知求异”因子和拉力维度的“核心吸引”因子之间的关联性相对较大。
(3)第5章,一个双重视角的解释：入境旅游流驱动模式构建。对旅游学中同一现象运用不同的视角研究,结论会显示出不同角度的合理性。以目的地和旅游者的双重视野,在对入境旅游流驱动力进行综合分析后,提出中国入境旅游流的驱动模式。从目的地角度审视,入境旅游流这一社会事实可以通过目的地其他社会事实来解释；从旅游者角度探究,入境旅游流这一社会现象需要还原到个体层面,从个体的动机和感知等方面对之加以说明。
本文试图在以下几方面做出创新：
(1)在研究视角上,充分认识到旅游活动主体既受到社会规律影响,又具有主观能动性,分别以目的地属性和旅游者心理为出发点,以统计年鉴数据和问卷调查数据为基础,各自得出了不同角度的旅游流驱动力。
(2)以定量研究为基础,结合定性方法分析,将目的地和旅游者视野下的旅游流驱动力研究成果进行错位性分析和互补性思辨,构建了双重视角下的入境旅游流驱动模式。
(3)在国内首次提出了心理层面的推力和拉力存在相互关联的假设,并得到了两类感知拉力可以分别提高两类动机推力的验证。扩允了旅游者心理驱动力研究的范畴,突破了推力和拉力多被作为两个完全独立的影响力进行研究的局限。同时,运用方差分析测度了推拉维度各因子之间的相关性及影响因素。
(4)在对词源出处和相关学科概念讨论的基础上,对旅游流驱动力做出了明确的定义。驱动力的范畴不应过于泛化,而应仅指具有正向效应的作用力。
Tourist flow is the premise of tourism industry and also is one of the core issues of tourism research. At present, the researchment of tourist flow is focused on spatial and temporal characteristics, diffusion of tourist flow inbound, while the tourist flow driving force is weak. Tourist flow as a social phenomenon of mass population movements, its driving forces are complex and multifaceted. American scholar Kurt Godel has said the result will be not completed if you understand the world excluding a certain way or view. For example, the driving force of tourist flow like the kernel of walnut, we need to use the hammer to strike from its different sides. If purely using the destination statistical annual data, we can easily fall into the mechanical materialism; If only using the survey data to analyze the tourist flow driving force, we can easily enter the personal decision of the abyss. Sorting the related literature, I find that the scholars develop the tourist flow driving forces from their own professional background. However, the driving force of tourist flow is complicated, a single perspective or method is weak. In social scientific research, people are both social object and social subject; received by the dominant social law, but also has some initiative. Therefore, it is necessary that the research of inbound tourist flow is conducted from the destination and tourist's dual angles.
All of the work about this research is supported by a grant from National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40771058). In this paper, the driving force of the inbound tourist flow is the research object. From the two perspectives of destination and tourist, the author used Pearson correlation analysis, factor analysis, variance analysis, structural equation model analysis and types of principal component analysis and other quantitative methods by the SPSS, the LISREL, and the EXCEL. On the basis of findings obtained through qualitative speculation, the author constructed a model of the tourist-flow-driven. The results have certain theory and practice significance for the development project, the development tourism product and the market development.
The main work and conclusions are the following:
(1) Viewing from the destination, the author use the correlation analysis method to find the strength of the provinces own property in the tourist destinations. The result is as follows:the economy is the greatest one, then traffic and service are next, the last one is tourism resource. In addition no correlation indicators, The highest correlation coefficient with the number of inbound tourists is import and export volume, followed by good-star hotels, the lowest level is an excellent area; and the tourism foreign exchange earnings is most relevant with import and export volume weight, followed by air throughput, the lowest level is the high-level scenic spot index; associated with the entry of foreign visitors is still the highest degree of import and export volume, followed by air throughput, the lowest level is still the high-level scenic spot index.
(2) Viewing from the tourist, the author used factor analysis, variance analysis and structural equation modeling and other methods to demonstrate push and pull are driving forces for tourists, and distinguish the psychological associations between push and pull forces. The two driving factors of the push dimension are "social and health","knowledge and novelty", the two driving factors of the pull dimension are "facility and environment", "core attraction." There are differences between the levels of each factor by different sexes, different ages, different education, different incomes and different countries (cultural) groups. In the push-pull relationship, the relationship between factors is large, such as, the "social and health" factor and the "facility and environment" factor, the "knowledge and novelty" factors and the "core attraction".
(3) Researching the same phenomenon in tourism with different perspectives, we can find that the conclusion will show the rationality of different angles. By destination and tourist's dual fields of vision, in carries on the generalized analysis after the entry traveling class driving influence, the author proposed a model of the tourist-flow-driven. From the destination view, the inbound tourist flow may explain through the destination other social fact:From the tourist view, the inbound tourist flow need to return to the individual stratification plane, and be explained by individual motive, sensation and the other factors.
This article attempts to make innovations in the following areas:
(1) In the research perspective, the author fully awared on that the tourists are affected by both the laws of society and initiative. Then, from the destination attributes and tourists psychology respectively, the author obtained tourist flow driving force in different angle.
(2) The author proposed the psychological stratification plane's push force and the pull force existence incident cross-correlation's supposition for the first time in domestic, and obtained two kind of sensation pull forces to be possible to enhance two kind of motive push forces. Expanded the research category of the tourist psychology driving force, this author broke through the push force and the pull force which were taken as two completely independent influences. At the same time, the variance analysis measures were used to measure the dimensions of the push and pull factors.
(3) Taking the quantitative investigation and the qualitative method analysis as the foundation, carrying on the dislocation analysis and the complementarity speculation under the destination and the tourist field of vision's tourist flow driving influence research results, the author has constructed a model of the tourist-flow-driven under the dual angle of view.
(4) Based on Etymological origin in the concepts and related disciplines, the driving force of the tourist flow was made a clear definition. Driving force should not be increased unlimited, but should refer only to have a positive effect on the force.
引文
①中国国家旅游局.2009中国旅游统计年鉴[M].北京：中国旅游出版社,2009.
①辞海编缉委员会,辞海[M].上海辞书出版社,1979：1788
②world Economic Forum(WEF).The Global Competitiveness Report,1996
③International Institute for Management(IMD).The World Competitiveness Yearbook,1996
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