全球化与农业发展研究
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摘要
本项研究旨在评价经济全球化对斯里兰卡经济发展特别是非种植农业的影响。在考察过去四十年影响农业全球化的关键因素及其对斯里兰卡经济发展的影响的基础上,提出本文的核心观点。因此,首要的目标是评价作为斯里兰卡经济发展的一项可能战略的农业全球化的效果。本项研究也是建立在思想特定的目标基础上,例如测算全球化的影响与贸易开放、农业领域的外资、技术转移、新农业品种的引进、进口等关键指标的一致性,评价理论基础、斯里兰卡经济和农业全球化的政策与规划,评价影响和潜力并且提出相应的政策建议。本项研究有七章,包括文献回顾和评述。
本项研究的关键方法是建立在检验与农业全球化相关的六项假设,如贸易通道、外国直接投资、技术密集度和劳动力移民、经济发展和技术趋同、发展本国农业和加强食品安全的效果、对农业工业化的影响、假设检验给予两种经济模型即索洛的新增长模型和由中国人建立的农业全球化指数模型。本项研究也测算增长和发展指标,如利率、贫困指数、农业密集度、自给自足比率和基于工业化的农业发展。
本项研究清晰地揭示正在进行的全球化过程既有积极影响又有消极影响。因此,对六项虚拟假设的检验的结果是,两项被拒绝,四项没有被拒绝。与关键的全球化指标有关并且在经济增长中获得技术进步的H1和H2被拒绝,意味着斯里兰卡的农业全球化前景光明。其它的假设与减少贫困、提高产出和非种植农业的效率、保证食品安全和发展以工业为基础的农业没有被拒绝,这意味着全球化对这些方面没有积极的影响。因此,尽管全球化是经济发展的一项措施,它对经济持续发展的总体影响上不确定。
本项研究突出了全球化的六点影响,应引起政策制定这的充分重视。包括低生产效率,恶化相对劣势,降低食品安全,削减劳动力吸纳水平和提高劳动生产率,跨国公司、经济全球化和小型农业部门的影响。建立在总体影响基础上的扩展的SOWT分析法揭示了在制定战略规划既要考虑经济全球化的机遇又要考虑其挑战。
这篇论文是Solow模式和指数模式基础上,对农业全球化的首次数量上的分析,它指出如果能适当利用全球化来吸收剩余劳动力,它将对斯里兰卡经济快速增长具有很大的潜力,全球化能促进农村城镇化和社会食品安全,如果所有国家都能遵守WTO规则和政策,它将为斯里兰卡农民有效提高生产力和劳动效率创造更多的机会。
The study intends to assess effects and impact of globalization on economic development in Sri Lanka, with special reference on effectiveness of globalization on non-plantation agriculture. The essences of the study based on reviewing key factors affected for agricultural globalization and consequence effects on economic growth in Sri Lanka in the past four decades. Thus, the foremost objective was focused to review the effectiveness of agricultural globalization as a potential strategy of economic development of Sri Lanka. It also based on studying four specific objectives such as measuring effects of globalization in accordance with some key indicators such as trade openness, foreign investment in agriculture, transfer of technology, introduction of new crop verities and imports etc, reviewing theoretical base, policies and programs followed for economic and agricultural globalization in Sri Lanka, assessing implications and potentials and suggesting necessary policy measures. The study consists of eight chapters including literature review and concluding remarks.
The essence of the methodology was based on testing six Hypotheses related to agricultural globalization such as access to trade, foreign direct investment, technological intensity and labor immigration, effectiveness of economic growth and technological convergence, effectiveness of improving domestic agriculture and food security, and impact on agro industrialization. Test of hypothesis were based on two economic models namely, Solow’s new growth model and agricultural globalizations indices model developed in China. It also measured growth and development indicators such as rate, poverty index, cropping intensity, self sufficiency ratio and growth of agro based industrialization.
The analysis reveals a very clear picture of on going process of globalization indicating both positive and negative results. Thus, of six null hypotheses tested, two were rejected and four were accepted. H1 and H2 which related to effects of key globalization indices and catch up of technological advancement in economic growth were rejected indicating that a promising trend in agricultural globalization in Sri Lanka. Remaining hypothesis related to eradicating poverty, increasing production and productivity of non plantation agriculture, maintaining food security and developing rural agro based industries were accepted implying that globalization has not positively contributed to develop these sectors. Thus, overall impact of globalization on sustainable economic development is unpredictable despite its promising trend as a green device of economic development.
The study highlights six implications, which need to be addressed essentially by policy makers. It includes low production efficiency, raising comparative disadvantage, decreasing food security, reducing labor absorption and increase labor productivity, influence of multi national corporations and the reality of globalization and small holding farming sector. The extensive SOWT analysis based on overall implications indicated both opportunities and challenges to be concerned in strategic planning. Accordingly Schematic presentation highlights the means and strategies to be followed to access international market both in terms of regional and global market strategies. It emphasizes the need for creating awareness among stakeholders through an effective approach of technological, institutional, informational and developmental programs.
The study reveled that globalization has tremendous potentials for gaining rapid economic growth in Sri Lanka, if it properly device to absorb surplus labor in agricultural sector which is the critical factor of Sri Lankan economic issues. It is obvious that globalization through commercialized agriculture is necessary. Though it is not a sufficient condition for economic development, its contribution is necessary for economy not because of maintain balanced growth, but because of employing rural labor force, rural urbanization and maintaining food security for the entire socie
本项研究的关键方法是建立在检验与农业全球化相关的六项假设,如贸易通道、外国直接投资、技术密集度和劳动力移民、经济发展和技术趋同、发展本国农业和加强食品安全的效果、对农业工业化的影响、假设检验给予两种经济模型即索洛的新增长模型和由中国人建立的农业全球化指数模型。本项研究也测算增长和发展指标,如利率、贫困指数、农业密集度、自给自足比率和基于工业化的农业发展。
本项研究清晰地揭示正在进行的全球化过程既有积极影响又有消极影响。因此,对六项虚拟假设的检验的结果是,两项被拒绝,四项没有被拒绝。与关键的全球化指标有关并且在经济增长中获得技术进步的H1和H2被拒绝,意味着斯里兰卡的农业全球化前景光明。其它的假设与减少贫困、提高产出和非种植农业的效率、保证食品安全和发展以工业为基础的农业没有被拒绝,这意味着全球化对这些方面没有积极的影响。因此,尽管全球化是经济发展的一项措施,它对经济持续发展的总体影响上不确定。
本项研究突出了全球化的六点影响,应引起政策制定这的充分重视。包括低生产效率,恶化相对劣势,降低食品安全,削减劳动力吸纳水平和提高劳动生产率,跨国公司、经济全球化和小型农业部门的影响。建立在总体影响基础上的扩展的SOWT分析法揭示了在制定战略规划既要考虑经济全球化的机遇又要考虑其挑战。
这篇论文是Solow模式和指数模式基础上,对农业全球化的首次数量上的分析,它指出如果能适当利用全球化来吸收剩余劳动力,它将对斯里兰卡经济快速增长具有很大的潜力,全球化能促进农村城镇化和社会食品安全,如果所有国家都能遵守WTO规则和政策,它将为斯里兰卡农民有效提高生产力和劳动效率创造更多的机会。
The study intends to assess effects and impact of globalization on economic development in Sri Lanka, with special reference on effectiveness of globalization on non-plantation agriculture. The essences of the study based on reviewing key factors affected for agricultural globalization and consequence effects on economic growth in Sri Lanka in the past four decades. Thus, the foremost objective was focused to review the effectiveness of agricultural globalization as a potential strategy of economic development of Sri Lanka. It also based on studying four specific objectives such as measuring effects of globalization in accordance with some key indicators such as trade openness, foreign investment in agriculture, transfer of technology, introduction of new crop verities and imports etc, reviewing theoretical base, policies and programs followed for economic and agricultural globalization in Sri Lanka, assessing implications and potentials and suggesting necessary policy measures. The study consists of eight chapters including literature review and concluding remarks.
The essence of the methodology was based on testing six Hypotheses related to agricultural globalization such as access to trade, foreign direct investment, technological intensity and labor immigration, effectiveness of economic growth and technological convergence, effectiveness of improving domestic agriculture and food security, and impact on agro industrialization. Test of hypothesis were based on two economic models namely, Solow’s new growth model and agricultural globalizations indices model developed in China. It also measured growth and development indicators such as rate, poverty index, cropping intensity, self sufficiency ratio and growth of agro based industrialization.
The analysis reveals a very clear picture of on going process of globalization indicating both positive and negative results. Thus, of six null hypotheses tested, two were rejected and four were accepted. H1 and H2 which related to effects of key globalization indices and catch up of technological advancement in economic growth were rejected indicating that a promising trend in agricultural globalization in Sri Lanka. Remaining hypothesis related to eradicating poverty, increasing production and productivity of non plantation agriculture, maintaining food security and developing rural agro based industries were accepted implying that globalization has not positively contributed to develop these sectors. Thus, overall impact of globalization on sustainable economic development is unpredictable despite its promising trend as a green device of economic development.
The study highlights six implications, which need to be addressed essentially by policy makers. It includes low production efficiency, raising comparative disadvantage, decreasing food security, reducing labor absorption and increase labor productivity, influence of multi national corporations and the reality of globalization and small holding farming sector. The extensive SOWT analysis based on overall implications indicated both opportunities and challenges to be concerned in strategic planning. Accordingly Schematic presentation highlights the means and strategies to be followed to access international market both in terms of regional and global market strategies. It emphasizes the need for creating awareness among stakeholders through an effective approach of technological, institutional, informational and developmental programs.
The study reveled that globalization has tremendous potentials for gaining rapid economic growth in Sri Lanka, if it properly device to absorb surplus labor in agricultural sector which is the critical factor of Sri Lankan economic issues. It is obvious that globalization through commercialized agriculture is necessary. Though it is not a sufficient condition for economic development, its contribution is necessary for economy not because of maintain balanced growth, but because of employing rural labor force, rural urbanization and maintaining food security for the entire socie
引文
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