基于保险精算原理的政策性作物保险定价研究
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摘要
农业保险作为WTO力举的扶农利器,在国际上已被普遍视为一种非价格保护农业的重要工具,在我国的发展历程却步履艰难。我国从2004年才开始逐步恢复推行政策性农业保险的试点工作,但在实践中,现行政策性农业保险的单一费率定价体系与国际先进水平仍存在很大差距。由于保障水平单一、农户的有效需求不足等问题导致了农业保险产品的推广受阻；纯费率厘定中缺乏对巨灾风险费率的厘定过程,使得政策性农业保险价格补贴的合理性受到质疑；理论上也缺乏能够保证政府、农户和保险公司利益均衡的保费精算方法。2010年,温家宝总理在十一届人大三次会议上指出：“要加快发展农业保险”。随着保险试点范围的不断扩大,如何科学、合理地厘定保险价格是政策性农业保险得以成功推行的关键。
本研究以多保障水平下的作物多种险(MPCI)定价研究为对象,提出三个需要解决的关键问题：(1)政策性农作物保险合理定价所基于的理论与方法,(2)农户生产风险认知度的获知、保险支付意愿以及财政补贴金额的测试,以及(3)多保障水平下的作物保险纯费率、农民实付保费、政府补贴及保险储备金等价格要素的厘定问题。
论文对国内外农业保险主要差距相关研究进行了系统的文献回顾,发现目前解决我国政策性农业保险产品科学定价的突破口,可以尝试运用生存分析精算的方法评估作物单产风险,完善我国的政策性农业保险产品定价体系。
第一,应用农业保险的外部性理论、收支平衡原理、效用最大化原理分别从政府、保险公司与农户三方角度阐述政府对作物保险补贴的最优规模、分析保险公司采用统一费率的弊端以及厘定保险统计精算价格的决定因素——保障水平和期望损失风险。并针对生存模型如何对作物保险中损失风险率的测算进行公式推导。
第二,对我国政策性农作物保险的研究背景进行实证分析,在识别我国农作物生产风险及成因分析之后,确定农业生产风险因素的可保性风险,结合政策性农业保险的发展现状,建立保费-赔付误差修正模型,测算试点阶段政府补贴对促进政策性农业保险市场均衡的贡献力度,并以辽宁省盘锦市样本地区为例对我国农户的作物保险认知度与支付意愿进行实地调查、分析与测算。
第三,在上述研究工作基础上,运用生存分析法对辽宁盘锦地区政策性作物保险价格的厘定展开实证。本文采用已构建的生存分析精算模型厘定出多个保障水平下的政策性作物保险纯费率,然后根据不同农户的风险偏好类型,针对产量保险和成本保险两种MPCI产品分别进行保额的厘定,并将纯费率进行特定的费率要素分解,进而确定出定价“方案一”和定价“方案二”两种政策性作物保险定价模式。为保险公司的保费厘定、产品推广以及政府的价格补贴决策提供借鉴。
最后,通过样本地区实证结果给出本研究的结论,同时总结主要的创新点,提出研究的局限性和后续研究的展望,并对我国政策性农业保险价格政策的制定提出建议。本研究不仅对样本试点地区开展和实施作物保险具有重要的理论与实践方面的指导意义,而且也将为我国推进和完善政策性农业保险提供技术方法研究的借鉴和政策建议参考。
Agricultural insurance has long been considered as a powerful poverty-relieve weapon supported by World Trade Organization (WTO) and also utilized as a very important non-price agricultural protection tool. Nevertheless, it has been experienced a bumpy road in China. In 2004, China gradually started its policy-oriented agricultural insurance program experiment. However, this undertaking did not move forward smoothly largely due to the unitary level of crop insurance coverage which significantly constrained farmers'effective demand for agricultural insurance program. Thus, there exists a big gap between China's current unitary coverage of agricultural crop insurance and well-developed international agricultural insurance programs abroad. This gap primarily exhibits that the pure agricultural insurance premium in China does not cover those potential catastrophic losses, thus it has been caused a varies degree of the suspicious as to the rationality and effectiveness as well of the Chinese government agricultural insurance premium subsidy policy. In addition, China has not developed a sound theory and applicable actuarial method to be used in balancing triple-party benefits involving with government, company and agricultural household. In 2010 Third conference of the 11th National People's Congress, Premier Wen Jiabao proposed:"to accelerate agricultural insurance program development." Therefore, along with the expanding agricultural insurance program experiment in China it is imperative and the upmost for China to be able to accurately determine appropriate agricultural insurance premium price. Apparently, this is the key for the Chinese agricultural insurance program to be success in the near future.
In this study, the author tried to establish multiple levels of crop insurance premium price under multiple peril crop insurance (MPCI) program which has three key issues to be resolved: 1) to establish some fundamental theories and methods to be used in agricultural crop insurance policy-making; 2) to evaluate farmers'recognition of production risk and agricultural household's willingness to pay for governmentally-supported crop insurance program; and 3) to determine appropriate level of pure crop insurance premium price under multiple insurance coverage, farmer's actual premium payment, as well as government subsidy and amount of required government reserve fund be utilized to run agricultural crop insurance program, etc.
Through an exhaustive literature review on the difference between China's and foreign nations'agricultural insurance programs, it was recognized that the survival analysis mode could be a breakthrough method that can be effectively used for determining a unit area of crop production risk and agricultural insurance premium price determination.
First of all, in light of application of externality theory in agricultural insurance, a break-even principle and utility maximization theory, this study evaluated an optimal level of government subsidy based on the perspectives and interests of three types of clients, including government, insurance company and household. It was found that there is a serious of problem by adopting a single insurance premium program and it also realized that the crop insurance coverage level and expected loss risks are the two key elements to be considered in crop insurance premium establishment by applying the statistical insurance actuarial analysis. Following that, several mathematical formulas used for risk loss measurements are derived under the survival analysis framework.
Secondly, an empirical study was conducted with regard to the governmentally supported crop insurance program in China. Through which various types of crop production risks were identified, and those insurable types of risks were recognized. A premium-indemnity error rectified model was established to measure the government contribution to policy-oriented agricultural insurance market. Finally, a survey was conducted to investigate famers'risk recognition in crop production and their willingness to pay for the crop insurance premium in Panjin of Liaoning province.
Thirdly, based on above research work, the survival analysis method was applied to estimate crop insurance premium price in Panjin, Liaoning province. The survival analysis model was used to determine multiple levels of so-called pure crop insurance premium, then both yield and production cost coverage premium were computed under the MPCI program. Additionally, the pure insurance premium is divided into two parts, thus premium price is split into "type I price" and "type II price" accordingly. Those can be used to support insurance premium establishment, development of crop insurance products, as well as determination of the level of government subsidy according to the farmer-households'risk preferences.
Finally, the conclusions were generated based on the empirical case study from which novelty points were summarized, and following up by study limitations and future expected research work discussion. Furthermore, the author proposed several ideas for China agricultural crop insurance policy-making and its improvement in the near future. Not only are those study findings useful for the study area's crop insurance development, but also, it can provide learning lesions for the nationwide government supported agricultural insurance program in terms of research method and applied techniques.
本研究以多保障水平下的作物多种险(MPCI)定价研究为对象,提出三个需要解决的关键问题：(1)政策性农作物保险合理定价所基于的理论与方法,(2)农户生产风险认知度的获知、保险支付意愿以及财政补贴金额的测试,以及(3)多保障水平下的作物保险纯费率、农民实付保费、政府补贴及保险储备金等价格要素的厘定问题。
论文对国内外农业保险主要差距相关研究进行了系统的文献回顾,发现目前解决我国政策性农业保险产品科学定价的突破口,可以尝试运用生存分析精算的方法评估作物单产风险,完善我国的政策性农业保险产品定价体系。
第一,应用农业保险的外部性理论、收支平衡原理、效用最大化原理分别从政府、保险公司与农户三方角度阐述政府对作物保险补贴的最优规模、分析保险公司采用统一费率的弊端以及厘定保险统计精算价格的决定因素——保障水平和期望损失风险。并针对生存模型如何对作物保险中损失风险率的测算进行公式推导。
第二,对我国政策性农作物保险的研究背景进行实证分析,在识别我国农作物生产风险及成因分析之后,确定农业生产风险因素的可保性风险,结合政策性农业保险的发展现状,建立保费-赔付误差修正模型,测算试点阶段政府补贴对促进政策性农业保险市场均衡的贡献力度,并以辽宁省盘锦市样本地区为例对我国农户的作物保险认知度与支付意愿进行实地调查、分析与测算。
第三,在上述研究工作基础上,运用生存分析法对辽宁盘锦地区政策性作物保险价格的厘定展开实证。本文采用已构建的生存分析精算模型厘定出多个保障水平下的政策性作物保险纯费率,然后根据不同农户的风险偏好类型,针对产量保险和成本保险两种MPCI产品分别进行保额的厘定,并将纯费率进行特定的费率要素分解,进而确定出定价“方案一”和定价“方案二”两种政策性作物保险定价模式。为保险公司的保费厘定、产品推广以及政府的价格补贴决策提供借鉴。
最后,通过样本地区实证结果给出本研究的结论,同时总结主要的创新点,提出研究的局限性和后续研究的展望,并对我国政策性农业保险价格政策的制定提出建议。本研究不仅对样本试点地区开展和实施作物保险具有重要的理论与实践方面的指导意义,而且也将为我国推进和完善政策性农业保险提供技术方法研究的借鉴和政策建议参考。
Agricultural insurance has long been considered as a powerful poverty-relieve weapon supported by World Trade Organization (WTO) and also utilized as a very important non-price agricultural protection tool. Nevertheless, it has been experienced a bumpy road in China. In 2004, China gradually started its policy-oriented agricultural insurance program experiment. However, this undertaking did not move forward smoothly largely due to the unitary level of crop insurance coverage which significantly constrained farmers'effective demand for agricultural insurance program. Thus, there exists a big gap between China's current unitary coverage of agricultural crop insurance and well-developed international agricultural insurance programs abroad. This gap primarily exhibits that the pure agricultural insurance premium in China does not cover those potential catastrophic losses, thus it has been caused a varies degree of the suspicious as to the rationality and effectiveness as well of the Chinese government agricultural insurance premium subsidy policy. In addition, China has not developed a sound theory and applicable actuarial method to be used in balancing triple-party benefits involving with government, company and agricultural household. In 2010 Third conference of the 11th National People's Congress, Premier Wen Jiabao proposed:"to accelerate agricultural insurance program development." Therefore, along with the expanding agricultural insurance program experiment in China it is imperative and the upmost for China to be able to accurately determine appropriate agricultural insurance premium price. Apparently, this is the key for the Chinese agricultural insurance program to be success in the near future.
In this study, the author tried to establish multiple levels of crop insurance premium price under multiple peril crop insurance (MPCI) program which has three key issues to be resolved: 1) to establish some fundamental theories and methods to be used in agricultural crop insurance policy-making; 2) to evaluate farmers'recognition of production risk and agricultural household's willingness to pay for governmentally-supported crop insurance program; and 3) to determine appropriate level of pure crop insurance premium price under multiple insurance coverage, farmer's actual premium payment, as well as government subsidy and amount of required government reserve fund be utilized to run agricultural crop insurance program, etc.
Through an exhaustive literature review on the difference between China's and foreign nations'agricultural insurance programs, it was recognized that the survival analysis mode could be a breakthrough method that can be effectively used for determining a unit area of crop production risk and agricultural insurance premium price determination.
First of all, in light of application of externality theory in agricultural insurance, a break-even principle and utility maximization theory, this study evaluated an optimal level of government subsidy based on the perspectives and interests of three types of clients, including government, insurance company and household. It was found that there is a serious of problem by adopting a single insurance premium program and it also realized that the crop insurance coverage level and expected loss risks are the two key elements to be considered in crop insurance premium establishment by applying the statistical insurance actuarial analysis. Following that, several mathematical formulas used for risk loss measurements are derived under the survival analysis framework.
Secondly, an empirical study was conducted with regard to the governmentally supported crop insurance program in China. Through which various types of crop production risks were identified, and those insurable types of risks were recognized. A premium-indemnity error rectified model was established to measure the government contribution to policy-oriented agricultural insurance market. Finally, a survey was conducted to investigate famers'risk recognition in crop production and their willingness to pay for the crop insurance premium in Panjin of Liaoning province.
Thirdly, based on above research work, the survival analysis method was applied to estimate crop insurance premium price in Panjin, Liaoning province. The survival analysis model was used to determine multiple levels of so-called pure crop insurance premium, then both yield and production cost coverage premium were computed under the MPCI program. Additionally, the pure insurance premium is divided into two parts, thus premium price is split into "type I price" and "type II price" accordingly. Those can be used to support insurance premium establishment, development of crop insurance products, as well as determination of the level of government subsidy according to the farmer-households'risk preferences.
Finally, the conclusions were generated based on the empirical case study from which novelty points were summarized, and following up by study limitations and future expected research work discussion. Furthermore, the author proposed several ideas for China agricultural crop insurance policy-making and its improvement in the near future. Not only are those study findings useful for the study area's crop insurance development, but also, it can provide learning lesions for the nationwide government supported agricultural insurance program in terms of research method and applied techniques.
引文
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