不确定条件下电信行业投资决策研究
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摘要
我国电信行业经过30多年的发展,尤其是90年代以后的高速发展,现已经成为国民经济基础性产业之一,是国家经济发展战略中的重点行业和先行行业。近几年,我国电信行业每年固定资产投资数额均超过了2000亿元,2008年达到2953.7亿元,同比增长29.6%。现阶段随着新一轮电信重组方案的尘埃落定,2009年年初发放3张3G牌照,这意味着新一轮的投资热潮已然拉开序幕。
作为典型的资金、技术密集型的电信行业,其技术进步快、投资数额大、建设周期长,无论是投资不足抑或过剩都会对国民经济造成巨大影响。同时,电信投资活动是一个动态的系统过程,其间关联变量复杂且多变,风险和不确定性无论是在建设阶段还是运营阶段始终贯穿整个项目投资的过程,竞争环境下更是如此。因而需要对电信行业的项目投资进行合理科学的决策,以保障电信行业健康、稳定、持续的发展。
电信行业目前的投资决策主要结合传统的投资决策理论进行决策,其中以现金流折现法(Discounted Cash Flow,DCF)的使用最为广泛。这种方法最突出的缺陷是不能有效的处理项目投资涉及的管理柔性及项目投资所蕴含的战略价值。但是,今天的电信行业面临着一系列的不确定性:电信业务需求、不断发展的技术进步、3G的前景、电信规制政策等,这使得电信投资具有了较大的不确定性和投资风险。在这种情况下,再应用DCF法对电信投资项目进行评价必然难以正确描述项目价值。
本文根据运用实物期权理论,结合电信行业投资的特点:投资的不可逆性、未来状态的不确定性以及管理的灵活性,对不确定条件下电信行业的投资决策进行了深入、系统的研究。
第一,分析电信行业投资现状,在此基础上运用多项分布滞后(PolynomialDistributed Lags,PDLs)模型对影响电信行业投资的不确定因素进行了实证,指出需求不确定性、技术进步不确定性以及政府规制政策不确定性等方面是影响电信投资不确定的主要因素,并进行了具体的分析,从而为本论文后续章节的研究提供了论述的立足点和出发点。
第二,在考察电信行业需求不确定随机特性的基础上,以投资时机为决策变量,在不考虑投资的互动策略影响假设条件下,建立了需求随机不确定条件下最优投资时机决策模型,并结合电信行业的历史数据运用模型进行了数值计算;同时,通过考察了模型中各参数对投资时机决策的影响,给出了投资规则。
第三,运用边际成本等于边际收益的经济学思想,建立了容量投资的规则,同时沿用了需求不确定条件下投资时机决策模型中指数型反需求函数,并结合电信行业成本特点,以投资容量为决策变量,在不考虑投资的互动策略影响假设条件下,构建了需求不确定条件下的投资容量决策模型。同时,结合第四章所研究的内容,给出了需求不确定条件下,同时进行最优投资时机和最优容量投资决策的模型。
第四,紧紧结合电信业技术进步状态的特点,在不考虑投资的互动策略影响假设条件下,研究电信运营商面临未来出现一代新技术时如何进行投资决策的问题。在电信运营商新技术采纳效率的实践,结合技术进步状态的随机特性,以投资时机为决策变量,在不考虑投资的互动策略影响假设条件下,建立了技术进步状态以及新技术采纳效率都不确定条件下新技术投资的决策模型,并给出了新技术采纳时间的累积概率分布,进一步从微观层面上显示新技术采纳对电信运营商投资决策的影响。
第五,讨论了政府规制政策不确定下,电信项目投资同样具有“实物期权”性,并考察了讨论了政府规制政策不确定性的随机特性,并在此基础上建立政府规制政策不确定下的投资决策模型,同时,考察了模型中各参数对投资决策的影响。
最后一部分为总结与展望,对论文研究所得到的主要结论进行归纳总结,并针对论文研究的不足提出了未来研究的方向。
Telecommunications industry now has become one of national economy foundational industries after 30 years of development, and one of key industries of the country's economic development strategy.
In recent years, the amount of annual investment in fixed assets of telecommunication industry has exceeded 2000 billion Yuan. It reached 295.37 billion Yuan in 2008, grew 29.6% compared to 2007. Along with a new round telecommunication reorganization plan's settling down, three 3G's licenses were issued in early 2009, which means that a new round of investment upsurge kicks off.
As a typical dense capital-technology, the fast technological progress, large amount of investment, and long period of construction in telecommunications industry, which can put the enormous influence on the national economy. At the same time, the telecommunications investment is a dynamic system process, which is associated with complex and ever-changing variables. Risks and uncertainties run through the whole process in the construction phase or operational phase of the project, and even more under the competitive environment. Therefore it is necessary to carry out the scientific decision-making to the telecommunications industry investments in order to safeguard the health, stable and sustainable development of the telecommunications industry.
The present investment decision-making in the telecommunications industry mainly combines with the traditional theory of investment decision-making, of which Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) is the most widely used. The most prominent defect of this method does not deal effectively with the management flexibility and strategic value which are involved in project investment. However, today's telecommunications industry faces many uncertainties: the demand for telecommunication services, the development of technological progress, the prospects of 3G, telecommunications regulatory policy, which enable telecommunication investment much more uncertainty and investment risks. In this case, it is difficult to describe correctly the value of the project by evaluating telecommunications investment projects based on the DCF method.
This dissertation, based on real option theory, combined with the characteristics of investment in the telecommunications industry: Investment Irreversibility, uncertainty of future state, as well as the flexibility of management, carries out in-depth, systematic study on the investment decision-making of the telecommunications industry under the conditions of uncertainty.
First, based on the analysis of investment status quo in the telecommunications industry and Polynomial Distributed Lags (PDLs) model, the investment uncertainties in the telecommunications industry are studied. This dissertation points out the three main factors which impact telecommunications investment: the demand uncertainty, technological progress uncertainty, and government regulation uncertainty, carries on the demonstration analysis, and then provides following sections with a starting point.
Second, decision-making model for optimal investment time is introduced, which is based on the demand stochastic uncertainty of the telecommunications industry, takes investment time for decision-making variables, and does not take into account the hypothesis conditions of mutual impact. Based on this model and combined with historical data of telecommunications industry, the numerical calculus is carried out. And the investment rules are given out, after the study of the model parameters on the impact of the investment decision-making time.
Third, this dissertation considers marginal costs equal to marginal returns idea, presents the capacity investment rule, simultaneously follows anti-demand function from decision-making model for optimal investment time, takes investment capacity for decision-making variables, does not take into account the hypothesis conditions of mutual impact, finally constitutes the decision-making model for investment capacity. At the same time, combined the decision-making model for investment capacity with the decision-making model for optimal investment time, the investment decision-making model is founded under the conditions of demand uncertainty.
Fourth, closely combined with the characteristics of technological progress of the telecommunications industry, without taking into account the hypothesis conditions of mutual impact, this dissertation studies operators how to make investment decisions when operators face a new generation of future technology. According to the new technology acceptance efficiency practices of operators, this dissertation takes investment time for decision-making variables, and does not take into account the hypothesis conditions of mutual impact, combines with the technological progress stochastic characteristics, builds the decision-making model for new technology under the uncertainty conditions of both technological progress and new technology acceptance efficiency.
Fifth, telecommunication project investments are presented property of real options under the uncertainty conditions of government regulation policy. Combined with the stochastic characteristics of government regulation policy, the decision-making model is established, and then the impacts of model various parameters on the investment decision-making are considered.
Finally, the full text main content and the innovations are summarized, and the directions for further research are pointed out.
作为典型的资金、技术密集型的电信行业,其技术进步快、投资数额大、建设周期长,无论是投资不足抑或过剩都会对国民经济造成巨大影响。同时,电信投资活动是一个动态的系统过程,其间关联变量复杂且多变,风险和不确定性无论是在建设阶段还是运营阶段始终贯穿整个项目投资的过程,竞争环境下更是如此。因而需要对电信行业的项目投资进行合理科学的决策,以保障电信行业健康、稳定、持续的发展。
电信行业目前的投资决策主要结合传统的投资决策理论进行决策,其中以现金流折现法(Discounted Cash Flow,DCF)的使用最为广泛。这种方法最突出的缺陷是不能有效的处理项目投资涉及的管理柔性及项目投资所蕴含的战略价值。但是,今天的电信行业面临着一系列的不确定性:电信业务需求、不断发展的技术进步、3G的前景、电信规制政策等,这使得电信投资具有了较大的不确定性和投资风险。在这种情况下,再应用DCF法对电信投资项目进行评价必然难以正确描述项目价值。
本文根据运用实物期权理论,结合电信行业投资的特点:投资的不可逆性、未来状态的不确定性以及管理的灵活性,对不确定条件下电信行业的投资决策进行了深入、系统的研究。
第一,分析电信行业投资现状,在此基础上运用多项分布滞后(PolynomialDistributed Lags,PDLs)模型对影响电信行业投资的不确定因素进行了实证,指出需求不确定性、技术进步不确定性以及政府规制政策不确定性等方面是影响电信投资不确定的主要因素,并进行了具体的分析,从而为本论文后续章节的研究提供了论述的立足点和出发点。
第二,在考察电信行业需求不确定随机特性的基础上,以投资时机为决策变量,在不考虑投资的互动策略影响假设条件下,建立了需求随机不确定条件下最优投资时机决策模型,并结合电信行业的历史数据运用模型进行了数值计算;同时,通过考察了模型中各参数对投资时机决策的影响,给出了投资规则。
第三,运用边际成本等于边际收益的经济学思想,建立了容量投资的规则,同时沿用了需求不确定条件下投资时机决策模型中指数型反需求函数,并结合电信行业成本特点,以投资容量为决策变量,在不考虑投资的互动策略影响假设条件下,构建了需求不确定条件下的投资容量决策模型。同时,结合第四章所研究的内容,给出了需求不确定条件下,同时进行最优投资时机和最优容量投资决策的模型。
第四,紧紧结合电信业技术进步状态的特点,在不考虑投资的互动策略影响假设条件下,研究电信运营商面临未来出现一代新技术时如何进行投资决策的问题。在电信运营商新技术采纳效率的实践,结合技术进步状态的随机特性,以投资时机为决策变量,在不考虑投资的互动策略影响假设条件下,建立了技术进步状态以及新技术采纳效率都不确定条件下新技术投资的决策模型,并给出了新技术采纳时间的累积概率分布,进一步从微观层面上显示新技术采纳对电信运营商投资决策的影响。
第五,讨论了政府规制政策不确定下,电信项目投资同样具有“实物期权”性,并考察了讨论了政府规制政策不确定性的随机特性,并在此基础上建立政府规制政策不确定下的投资决策模型,同时,考察了模型中各参数对投资决策的影响。
最后一部分为总结与展望,对论文研究所得到的主要结论进行归纳总结,并针对论文研究的不足提出了未来研究的方向。
Telecommunications industry now has become one of national economy foundational industries after 30 years of development, and one of key industries of the country's economic development strategy.
In recent years, the amount of annual investment in fixed assets of telecommunication industry has exceeded 2000 billion Yuan. It reached 295.37 billion Yuan in 2008, grew 29.6% compared to 2007. Along with a new round telecommunication reorganization plan's settling down, three 3G's licenses were issued in early 2009, which means that a new round of investment upsurge kicks off.
As a typical dense capital-technology, the fast technological progress, large amount of investment, and long period of construction in telecommunications industry, which can put the enormous influence on the national economy. At the same time, the telecommunications investment is a dynamic system process, which is associated with complex and ever-changing variables. Risks and uncertainties run through the whole process in the construction phase or operational phase of the project, and even more under the competitive environment. Therefore it is necessary to carry out the scientific decision-making to the telecommunications industry investments in order to safeguard the health, stable and sustainable development of the telecommunications industry.
The present investment decision-making in the telecommunications industry mainly combines with the traditional theory of investment decision-making, of which Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) is the most widely used. The most prominent defect of this method does not deal effectively with the management flexibility and strategic value which are involved in project investment. However, today's telecommunications industry faces many uncertainties: the demand for telecommunication services, the development of technological progress, the prospects of 3G, telecommunications regulatory policy, which enable telecommunication investment much more uncertainty and investment risks. In this case, it is difficult to describe correctly the value of the project by evaluating telecommunications investment projects based on the DCF method.
This dissertation, based on real option theory, combined with the characteristics of investment in the telecommunications industry: Investment Irreversibility, uncertainty of future state, as well as the flexibility of management, carries out in-depth, systematic study on the investment decision-making of the telecommunications industry under the conditions of uncertainty.
First, based on the analysis of investment status quo in the telecommunications industry and Polynomial Distributed Lags (PDLs) model, the investment uncertainties in the telecommunications industry are studied. This dissertation points out the three main factors which impact telecommunications investment: the demand uncertainty, technological progress uncertainty, and government regulation uncertainty, carries on the demonstration analysis, and then provides following sections with a starting point.
Second, decision-making model for optimal investment time is introduced, which is based on the demand stochastic uncertainty of the telecommunications industry, takes investment time for decision-making variables, and does not take into account the hypothesis conditions of mutual impact. Based on this model and combined with historical data of telecommunications industry, the numerical calculus is carried out. And the investment rules are given out, after the study of the model parameters on the impact of the investment decision-making time.
Third, this dissertation considers marginal costs equal to marginal returns idea, presents the capacity investment rule, simultaneously follows anti-demand function from decision-making model for optimal investment time, takes investment capacity for decision-making variables, does not take into account the hypothesis conditions of mutual impact, finally constitutes the decision-making model for investment capacity. At the same time, combined the decision-making model for investment capacity with the decision-making model for optimal investment time, the investment decision-making model is founded under the conditions of demand uncertainty.
Fourth, closely combined with the characteristics of technological progress of the telecommunications industry, without taking into account the hypothesis conditions of mutual impact, this dissertation studies operators how to make investment decisions when operators face a new generation of future technology. According to the new technology acceptance efficiency practices of operators, this dissertation takes investment time for decision-making variables, and does not take into account the hypothesis conditions of mutual impact, combines with the technological progress stochastic characteristics, builds the decision-making model for new technology under the uncertainty conditions of both technological progress and new technology acceptance efficiency.
Fifth, telecommunication project investments are presented property of real options under the uncertainty conditions of government regulation policy. Combined with the stochastic characteristics of government regulation policy, the decision-making model is established, and then the impacts of model various parameters on the investment decision-making are considered.
Finally, the full text main content and the innovations are summarized, and the directions for further research are pointed out.
引文
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