饲料桑高产栽培数学模型及优化研究
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摘要
饲料桑是近年来我国科研人员通过人工选择与杂交育种培育出的最新抗逆性品种,具有很高的生态价值,同时营养价值高,适口性好,是目前最具开发潜力的木本饲用植物。
为了促进养殖业的发展,大力开发新型饲草饲料资源,本文深入研究了饲料桑的生长规律及饲料桑高产高效的综合农艺措施,为饲料桑机械化、规模化生产提供科学的理论依据。
本文观测了新品种饲料桑的生物学特性;采用单因素随机区组试验设计,研究了在不同栽培密度下自然生长的一龄饲料桑生长变化规律。研究发现整个生长季自然生长的一龄饲料桑主枝条地径、条长呈现缓慢生长、快速生长、停止生长的规律,呈现非线性生长方式,符合逻辑斯蒂数学模型;自然生长的一龄饲料桑叶数生长规律,也呈现非线性生长方式,但符合Richards数学模型。
本文也研究了二龄饲料桑一年三茬生产模式的生长变化规律,发现二龄饲料桑一年三茬生产模式主枝条地径、条长、叶数呈现缓慢生长、快速生长、停止生长的规律,皆呈现非线性生长方式,均符合逻辑斯蒂数学模型。
为了建立饲料桑高产高效生产优化栽培技术规范,本试验将氮肥、磷肥、钾肥、施肥次数和刈割次数作为决策变量,采用五因素二次正交旋转组合设计试验方法,通过对建立的产量及效益数学模式进行优化与解析,对饲料桑叶产量、枝叶产量的主要栽培措施与产量及效益间的量化关系进行了系统研究,明确了影响饲料桑产量的关键因子及实现高产高效优化栽培的综合农艺措施,为永定河故道沙土地饲料桑高产高效优化栽培技术规范提供科学依据。
通过对建构的饲料桑高产栽培数学模型进行统计选优、降维分析、边际效应分析,结果表明:饲料桑叶产量、枝叶产量最佳实施条件是:施N肥60kg/667 m~2,施P肥30 kg/667 m~2,施K肥40kg/667 m~2,施肥次数为三次(京津地区时间分别为每年的4月30日、6月15日、8月15日),刈割次数三次(京津地区时间分别为每年的5月30日、7月30日、10月15日)。
2007年试验饲料桑叶产量最佳产量为700.62kg/667m~2,各因素的相对重要性大小依次为:施肥次数、刈割次数、施磷肥量、施氮肥量、施钾肥量。2007年饲料桑枝叶最佳产量1260.71kg/667m~2,各因素的相对重要性大小依次为:刈割次数、施肥次数、施钾肥量、施氮肥量、施磷肥量。
试验各因素对产量的关系均为二次型的抛物线关系,各因素和产量相关的最高值出现在试验编码值的0水平上,因素间存在一定的交互作用。在饲料桑叶产量因素交互影响中磷肥施肥次数的交互作用最大,其次为氮肥刈割次数的交互效应。在饲料桑枝叶产量因素交互影响中则氮肥和磷肥的交互作用影响最大,其次为氮肥和钾肥的交互效应。五项因素之间又存在互作效应。因此说明在饲料桑栽培措施中,不仅考虑主效措施,也要考虑微效和独效措施的选用。
经边际产量分析,当各因素在试验编码值0水平以下时,随因素水平的提高,饲料桑叶及饲料桑枝叶产量增长显著。在试验编码值0水平时,达到最高产量。各因素在试验编码值0水平以上时,产量随着因素水平的提高不再增长,反而呈现下降的趋势。
因此,在生产中,应注意协调五项栽培措施间的关系,适时刈割,合理施肥,重视氮肥、钾肥、磷肥的配合施用,发挥其综合增产效应,以利增产增收。
本文通过对自然生长一龄饲料桑和二龄饲料桑一年三茬生产模式的枝条长度、枝条地径、饲料桑叶数生长数据统计分析,首次提出了其生长的数学模型,可方便的了解饲料桑园在当前栽培条件下的极限产量、极限生长速度,并可预测和分析饲料桑的生长速度、理论最高生长量和饲料桑叶数量等多项饲料桑生长指标。
本文首次采用五因素二次正交旋转组合设计对饲料桑进行生产研究,简化了试验程序,极大减少了田间试验工作量,使多因素田间试验、研究同步进行,有效提高了研究成果的准确性、全面性、科学性,同时这一先进、实用的试验方法大大提高了科研工作的效率,为农业系统工程理论、计算机技术在生产实践上的应用作了有益的尝试。
本文深入研究了饲料桑的特征特性和生长规律,考虑了生产实践中的各主要因素,为饲料桑生产实践提供了科学依据,对饲料桑高产高效优化栽培也有较强的指导意义。
In recent years, Chinese scientists have cultivated a Morus Alba through artificial selection and crossbreeding. They have cultivated the newest resistance strain, its regional compatibility was very strong. Morus Alba has high ecological value, nutritional value and palatability. So it was predicted to be the most potential ligneous forage plant.
Therefore, in order to promote the development for the animal husbandry, and vigorously develop the new forage grass and feed resources, the forage type mulberry's natural growth rule and its High-output and High-effect comprehensive agronomy measures have been in-depth studied in this paper. The scientific theory has been provided for the forage type mulberry's mechanized and scale production.
The biological characteristics of a new variety--forage type Morus alba have been observed and its growth rules have been studied in different densities by the way of single factor randomized block test in this paper. The results showed that the one-year-old forage type Morus alba's main branch ground diameter, shoot length have presented the rule, they followed the slow growth, rapid growth and the stopping growth. The rule has presented the misalignment growth way and it accorded with the Logistic mathematical model. The growth law of one-year-old forage type Morus Alba's leaf number also presented the misalignment growth way, but it accorded with the Richards mathematical model.
The biological foundation of the two-years-old forage type Morus alba's three-harvest production pattern has been studied in following aspects: the two-years-old forage type Morus alba's main branch ground diameter, length and number of leaves followed the law of slow growth, rapid growth and stopping growth. They are not only in line with nonlinear growth pattern, but also accorded with the Logistic mathematical model.
In order to establish a optimized cultivation technical standard of forage type Morus alba with high-effect production, Orthogonal rotatable central composite design and five factors (nitrogen fertilizer, phosphorous fertilizer, potassium fertilizer, fertilize times, mowing times) was adopted to study the relationship between leaves yield, branch yield and major cultivation techniques, income.
We clarified the key factors influencing forage type Morus alba and found comprehensive cultivation techniques by establishing mathematical model, and its analysis which supplied scientific foundation for high yield and effect cultivating forage Morus alba in areas of old Yongding River.
We analysed the regression equation with statistical optium choosing, dimension reduced and margin effect. The results showed the optium cultivation techniques as follows: nitrogen fertilizer(60kg per 667m~2), phosphorous fertilizer(30kg per 667m~2), potassium fertilizer (40kg per 667m~2), fertilize 3 times(april 30, June 15 and August 15 in each year, respectively), mowing 3 times(May 30, July 30 and October 15 in each year, respectively).
The highest yield of the forage type Morus alba's leaf yield was 700.62kg per 667m~2 in 2007. According to the importance of each factor, the important order of factor was applying fertilizer frequency, the mowing frequency, the phosphate fertilizer, the nitrogenous fertilizer and the potassium fertilizer. The highest yield of the forage type Morus alba's branches and leaves was 1260.71kg per 667m~2 in 2007, the factors important order was the mowing frequency; the applying fertilize frequency, the potassium fertilizer, the nitrogenous fertilizer and the phosphate fertilizer.
In this paper, such analyzing methods as the regression equation, statistical optimum choosing, the analysis of dimension reduced and margin effect have been used to analyze the data that resulted from experiment.
The relationships between each factor and yield of forage type Morus alba were all in line with twice-kind parabola. The highest interrelated numerical values between each factor and yield of forage type Morus alba presented on level 0 of experimental code. As far as the production of the forage type Morus alba's leaves was concerned, there are interactions among factors, The most obvious interaction was the interaction between the nitrogenous fertilizer and the mowing frequency, secondly, between the nitrogenous fertilizer and mowing frequency: but in yields of branch and leaves, the most obvious interaction was the interaction between the nitrogenous fertilizer and the phosphate fertilizer, secondly, between the nitrogenous fertilizer and the potassium fertilizer.
Among the different cultivation measures, the principal measure should be considered, while the negligible and sole measure all should be used.
The experiment indicated that various factors were under the 0 level of experimental code value, along with the factor level's enhancement, the output growth effect was remarkable and achieved the maximum production when in the 0 level of experimental code value. Various factors were above the 0 level of experimental code value, the output no longer grows along with the factor level's enhancement, but it has dropping trend. After the marginal yield analysis, various factors are under the 0 level of experimental code value, the function of increasing production is obvious and the efficiency is remarkable.
Therefore, in the production, we should pay attention to the relationship among the five cultivation techniques: mowing at the right time, applying fertilizer rationally, matching the nitrogenous fertilizer, the potassium and phosphate fertilizer. Only in this way, all factors can play its comprehensive effect in production increase.
The natural growth of one-year-old forage type Morus alba and two-years-old forage type Morus alba's three-harvest production pattern have been studied in following aspects: the two-years-old type Morus alba's main branch ground diameter, length and number of leaves. Their growth mathematical simulation models have been proposed, so they may facilitate the understanding for forage type mulberry orchard's limit output and limit growth speed under the current cultivation condition, and they may forecast in following aspects: the forage type mulberry's growth speed, the highest growth quantity, and the number of leaves ,and so on multiple items of forage type mulberry growth index, so as to help predict the change law of the growth of forage type Mulberry in the future.
Orthogonal rotatable central composite design was adopted to replace the comprehensive test with the part experiment. A lot of the experimental work load was reduced greatly, and the multi-factor field test to implement came into possibly, thus meeting needs of the agricultural production engineering research. So, this design method is an advanced, practical method concerned multifactor experiment research.
According to the characteristic of forage type mulberry, the local production condition and the operational main factors for farmers, Orthogonal rotatable central composite design and five factors were adopted to study the forage type mulberry production. It is one simple effective method and feeds back the valuable information. It overcomes the insufficiency which the routine-test cannot attend to one thing without losing track of another thing. Simultaneously the agricultural system project theory and the computer technology opened up a new way in practice's application;; this research has the realistic feasibility and the production guiding sense for the forage type mulberry High-output and High-effect optimization cultivation pattern.
为了促进养殖业的发展,大力开发新型饲草饲料资源,本文深入研究了饲料桑的生长规律及饲料桑高产高效的综合农艺措施,为饲料桑机械化、规模化生产提供科学的理论依据。
本文观测了新品种饲料桑的生物学特性;采用单因素随机区组试验设计,研究了在不同栽培密度下自然生长的一龄饲料桑生长变化规律。研究发现整个生长季自然生长的一龄饲料桑主枝条地径、条长呈现缓慢生长、快速生长、停止生长的规律,呈现非线性生长方式,符合逻辑斯蒂数学模型;自然生长的一龄饲料桑叶数生长规律,也呈现非线性生长方式,但符合Richards数学模型。
本文也研究了二龄饲料桑一年三茬生产模式的生长变化规律,发现二龄饲料桑一年三茬生产模式主枝条地径、条长、叶数呈现缓慢生长、快速生长、停止生长的规律,皆呈现非线性生长方式,均符合逻辑斯蒂数学模型。
为了建立饲料桑高产高效生产优化栽培技术规范,本试验将氮肥、磷肥、钾肥、施肥次数和刈割次数作为决策变量,采用五因素二次正交旋转组合设计试验方法,通过对建立的产量及效益数学模式进行优化与解析,对饲料桑叶产量、枝叶产量的主要栽培措施与产量及效益间的量化关系进行了系统研究,明确了影响饲料桑产量的关键因子及实现高产高效优化栽培的综合农艺措施,为永定河故道沙土地饲料桑高产高效优化栽培技术规范提供科学依据。
通过对建构的饲料桑高产栽培数学模型进行统计选优、降维分析、边际效应分析,结果表明:饲料桑叶产量、枝叶产量最佳实施条件是:施N肥60kg/667 m~2,施P肥30 kg/667 m~2,施K肥40kg/667 m~2,施肥次数为三次(京津地区时间分别为每年的4月30日、6月15日、8月15日),刈割次数三次(京津地区时间分别为每年的5月30日、7月30日、10月15日)。
2007年试验饲料桑叶产量最佳产量为700.62kg/667m~2,各因素的相对重要性大小依次为:施肥次数、刈割次数、施磷肥量、施氮肥量、施钾肥量。2007年饲料桑枝叶最佳产量1260.71kg/667m~2,各因素的相对重要性大小依次为:刈割次数、施肥次数、施钾肥量、施氮肥量、施磷肥量。
试验各因素对产量的关系均为二次型的抛物线关系,各因素和产量相关的最高值出现在试验编码值的0水平上,因素间存在一定的交互作用。在饲料桑叶产量因素交互影响中磷肥施肥次数的交互作用最大,其次为氮肥刈割次数的交互效应。在饲料桑枝叶产量因素交互影响中则氮肥和磷肥的交互作用影响最大,其次为氮肥和钾肥的交互效应。五项因素之间又存在互作效应。因此说明在饲料桑栽培措施中,不仅考虑主效措施,也要考虑微效和独效措施的选用。
经边际产量分析,当各因素在试验编码值0水平以下时,随因素水平的提高,饲料桑叶及饲料桑枝叶产量增长显著。在试验编码值0水平时,达到最高产量。各因素在试验编码值0水平以上时,产量随着因素水平的提高不再增长,反而呈现下降的趋势。
因此,在生产中,应注意协调五项栽培措施间的关系,适时刈割,合理施肥,重视氮肥、钾肥、磷肥的配合施用,发挥其综合增产效应,以利增产增收。
本文通过对自然生长一龄饲料桑和二龄饲料桑一年三茬生产模式的枝条长度、枝条地径、饲料桑叶数生长数据统计分析,首次提出了其生长的数学模型,可方便的了解饲料桑园在当前栽培条件下的极限产量、极限生长速度,并可预测和分析饲料桑的生长速度、理论最高生长量和饲料桑叶数量等多项饲料桑生长指标。
本文首次采用五因素二次正交旋转组合设计对饲料桑进行生产研究,简化了试验程序,极大减少了田间试验工作量,使多因素田间试验、研究同步进行,有效提高了研究成果的准确性、全面性、科学性,同时这一先进、实用的试验方法大大提高了科研工作的效率,为农业系统工程理论、计算机技术在生产实践上的应用作了有益的尝试。
本文深入研究了饲料桑的特征特性和生长规律,考虑了生产实践中的各主要因素,为饲料桑生产实践提供了科学依据,对饲料桑高产高效优化栽培也有较强的指导意义。
In recent years, Chinese scientists have cultivated a Morus Alba through artificial selection and crossbreeding. They have cultivated the newest resistance strain, its regional compatibility was very strong. Morus Alba has high ecological value, nutritional value and palatability. So it was predicted to be the most potential ligneous forage plant.
Therefore, in order to promote the development for the animal husbandry, and vigorously develop the new forage grass and feed resources, the forage type mulberry's natural growth rule and its High-output and High-effect comprehensive agronomy measures have been in-depth studied in this paper. The scientific theory has been provided for the forage type mulberry's mechanized and scale production.
The biological characteristics of a new variety--forage type Morus alba have been observed and its growth rules have been studied in different densities by the way of single factor randomized block test in this paper. The results showed that the one-year-old forage type Morus alba's main branch ground diameter, shoot length have presented the rule, they followed the slow growth, rapid growth and the stopping growth. The rule has presented the misalignment growth way and it accorded with the Logistic mathematical model. The growth law of one-year-old forage type Morus Alba's leaf number also presented the misalignment growth way, but it accorded with the Richards mathematical model.
The biological foundation of the two-years-old forage type Morus alba's three-harvest production pattern has been studied in following aspects: the two-years-old forage type Morus alba's main branch ground diameter, length and number of leaves followed the law of slow growth, rapid growth and stopping growth. They are not only in line with nonlinear growth pattern, but also accorded with the Logistic mathematical model.
In order to establish a optimized cultivation technical standard of forage type Morus alba with high-effect production, Orthogonal rotatable central composite design and five factors (nitrogen fertilizer, phosphorous fertilizer, potassium fertilizer, fertilize times, mowing times) was adopted to study the relationship between leaves yield, branch yield and major cultivation techniques, income.
We clarified the key factors influencing forage type Morus alba and found comprehensive cultivation techniques by establishing mathematical model, and its analysis which supplied scientific foundation for high yield and effect cultivating forage Morus alba in areas of old Yongding River.
We analysed the regression equation with statistical optium choosing, dimension reduced and margin effect. The results showed the optium cultivation techniques as follows: nitrogen fertilizer(60kg per 667m~2), phosphorous fertilizer(30kg per 667m~2), potassium fertilizer (40kg per 667m~2), fertilize 3 times(april 30, June 15 and August 15 in each year, respectively), mowing 3 times(May 30, July 30 and October 15 in each year, respectively).
The highest yield of the forage type Morus alba's leaf yield was 700.62kg per 667m~2 in 2007. According to the importance of each factor, the important order of factor was applying fertilizer frequency, the mowing frequency, the phosphate fertilizer, the nitrogenous fertilizer and the potassium fertilizer. The highest yield of the forage type Morus alba's branches and leaves was 1260.71kg per 667m~2 in 2007, the factors important order was the mowing frequency; the applying fertilize frequency, the potassium fertilizer, the nitrogenous fertilizer and the phosphate fertilizer.
In this paper, such analyzing methods as the regression equation, statistical optimum choosing, the analysis of dimension reduced and margin effect have been used to analyze the data that resulted from experiment.
The relationships between each factor and yield of forage type Morus alba were all in line with twice-kind parabola. The highest interrelated numerical values between each factor and yield of forage type Morus alba presented on level 0 of experimental code. As far as the production of the forage type Morus alba's leaves was concerned, there are interactions among factors, The most obvious interaction was the interaction between the nitrogenous fertilizer and the mowing frequency, secondly, between the nitrogenous fertilizer and mowing frequency: but in yields of branch and leaves, the most obvious interaction was the interaction between the nitrogenous fertilizer and the phosphate fertilizer, secondly, between the nitrogenous fertilizer and the potassium fertilizer.
Among the different cultivation measures, the principal measure should be considered, while the negligible and sole measure all should be used.
The experiment indicated that various factors were under the 0 level of experimental code value, along with the factor level's enhancement, the output growth effect was remarkable and achieved the maximum production when in the 0 level of experimental code value. Various factors were above the 0 level of experimental code value, the output no longer grows along with the factor level's enhancement, but it has dropping trend. After the marginal yield analysis, various factors are under the 0 level of experimental code value, the function of increasing production is obvious and the efficiency is remarkable.
Therefore, in the production, we should pay attention to the relationship among the five cultivation techniques: mowing at the right time, applying fertilizer rationally, matching the nitrogenous fertilizer, the potassium and phosphate fertilizer. Only in this way, all factors can play its comprehensive effect in production increase.
The natural growth of one-year-old forage type Morus alba and two-years-old forage type Morus alba's three-harvest production pattern have been studied in following aspects: the two-years-old type Morus alba's main branch ground diameter, length and number of leaves. Their growth mathematical simulation models have been proposed, so they may facilitate the understanding for forage type mulberry orchard's limit output and limit growth speed under the current cultivation condition, and they may forecast in following aspects: the forage type mulberry's growth speed, the highest growth quantity, and the number of leaves ,and so on multiple items of forage type mulberry growth index, so as to help predict the change law of the growth of forage type Mulberry in the future.
Orthogonal rotatable central composite design was adopted to replace the comprehensive test with the part experiment. A lot of the experimental work load was reduced greatly, and the multi-factor field test to implement came into possibly, thus meeting needs of the agricultural production engineering research. So, this design method is an advanced, practical method concerned multifactor experiment research.
According to the characteristic of forage type mulberry, the local production condition and the operational main factors for farmers, Orthogonal rotatable central composite design and five factors were adopted to study the forage type mulberry production. It is one simple effective method and feeds back the valuable information. It overcomes the insufficiency which the routine-test cannot attend to one thing without losing track of another thing. Simultaneously the agricultural system project theory and the computer technology opened up a new way in practice's application;; this research has the realistic feasibility and the production guiding sense for the forage type mulberry High-output and High-effect optimization cultivation pattern.
引文
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