新生代农民工城市定居意愿研究
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摘要
作为世界上最大的发展中国家,我国农业转移人口的乡—城迁移过程具有特别的“中国路径”,即农民工在实现职业非农化的同时未能实现市民身份的转变。至2013年,虽然我国城市化率已达53.73%,但数以亿计的被统计为城市化人口的农民工,在教育、就业、医疗、养老、保障性住房等方面未能享受与城镇居民同等的基本公共服务,农民工的“半城市化”现状导致城市内部出现新的二元矛盾。如何促进和引导有城市定居意愿的农民工实现市民化已成为我国城市化发展中必须解决的问题。
本研究着眼于有更强城市化意愿的新生代农民工的未来定居去向,应用统计分析及mlogit模型从个体特征视角考察不同类型务工城市新生代农民的“留城”意愿及不打算留下来但有城市定居意愿者的“回家乡中小城市”定居倾向,探究新生代农民工中小城市定居及属地就近定居的趋势和特征。本研究丰富了我国农民工市民化的“农民—农民工—市民”的两阶段理论,弥补了目前对农民工在中小城市实现城市化研究方面的不足,研究成果将为国家及不同类型务工城市制定宏观及差异化的城市化政策提供参考。
研究在对省、市、县不同类型务工城市实地调查的基础上,对新生代农民工城市定居意愿趋势、主要定居去向的原因、定居意愿转变为定居行为的可能性、不同个体特征定居意愿的差异进行了统计分析。并应用mlogit模型实证分析了新生代农民工城市定居意愿的影响因素及不同类型城市样本影响因素的共性及差异。
主要的研究发现如下：
首先,在新生代农民工城市定居趋向上,中小城市成为新生代农民工主要的定居流向,属地就近定居成为新生代农民工未来城市定居的趋势性选择。
其次,在对新生代农民工城市定居选择原因的统计分析后发现,在为何打算“留城”的原因方面,“生活久了,喜欢这里”成为首位原因；在为何“回家乡中小城市”的原因方面,距离及住房因素成为最大的吸引。
再次,在对新生代农民工城市定居意愿影响因素的考察上,以家庭年收入水平、老家房产价值为代表的家庭经济条件将对新生代农民工去家乡中小城市定居有显著影响；职业层级较高的智力型、技术型务工者倾向“留城”；中小城市的打工者更倾向“留城”；属地就近原则显著影响新生代农民工定居去向,如来自打工城市附近农村的新生代农民工更倾向“留城”,来自打工城市附近县城农村及东北三省外的打工者倾向回到家乡中小城市定居。
基于以上的研究发现,论文又从住房、就业及大、中小城市定居政策差异三个方面对促进新生代农民工定居城市的政策作了探讨。
As the world's largest developing country, China's rural-urban migration features its special "China's path":non-agriculturalization of migrant workers isn't synchronized with the change of citizenship. In2013, China's urbanization rate reached53.73%and the urban population has exceeded the rural population. China's urbanization rate is based on counting up all of the inhabitants living in cities who cover a large number of migrant workers in cities without urban household registration. However, these involved migrant workers have not enjoyed equal basic urban public services with the local residents. The "semi-urbanization" status of migrant workers arouses new urban internal contradictions. How to promote and guide the urban settlement willingness of migrant workers is becoming a must involved in the development of China's urbanization.
The research focuses on the New-generaion of Migrant Workers with stronger will to settle in cities and examines the intention of staying and returning to their small and medium-sized cities in hometowns through statistical analysis and mlogit model regression to find the trend of settling in small and medium-sized cities and settlement by territorial proximity. This study enriches the theory of citizenization of migrant workers featuring two stage "farmers-migrant workers-citizens and makes the status of study shortage on settling in small and medium-sized cities changed. Research results will provide references for macro urbanization policies and different policies for different type of destination cities.
Based on the field survey data from cities of different levels, the thesis makes statistical analyses on the trend, the reasons, the probability of intention-behaviors and intention differences of migrants with different individual characteristics, then analyzes the influencing factors of urban intention and similarities and differences of factors for different samples.
The main findings are as followed:
Firstly, settling in small and medium-sized cities is becoming the main settlement intention. And they tend to settle by territorial proximity.
Secondly, the reasons for staying in destionation cities are fondness of the working cities after long working and living there, while the ones for returning to their small and medium-sized cities in hometowns are considerations of distances and housing.
Thirdly, to the influencing factors, the household economic conditions represented by annual household income and housing value in hometown show significant effects on the intention of settling in small and medium-sized cities in hometown; the migrants working in small and medium-sized cities tend to settle down the working cities; those whose occupation is intellectual and technical tend to stay; the New-generation of Migrant Workers tends to settle down cities belonged to their hometown.
According the above findings, the thesis then discusses the policies to promote urban settlement of the New-generation of Migrant Workers from three aspects of employment, housing, and differences in settlement policies among large, medium-sized and small cities.
本研究着眼于有更强城市化意愿的新生代农民工的未来定居去向,应用统计分析及mlogit模型从个体特征视角考察不同类型务工城市新生代农民的“留城”意愿及不打算留下来但有城市定居意愿者的“回家乡中小城市”定居倾向,探究新生代农民工中小城市定居及属地就近定居的趋势和特征。本研究丰富了我国农民工市民化的“农民—农民工—市民”的两阶段理论,弥补了目前对农民工在中小城市实现城市化研究方面的不足,研究成果将为国家及不同类型务工城市制定宏观及差异化的城市化政策提供参考。
研究在对省、市、县不同类型务工城市实地调查的基础上,对新生代农民工城市定居意愿趋势、主要定居去向的原因、定居意愿转变为定居行为的可能性、不同个体特征定居意愿的差异进行了统计分析。并应用mlogit模型实证分析了新生代农民工城市定居意愿的影响因素及不同类型城市样本影响因素的共性及差异。
主要的研究发现如下：
首先,在新生代农民工城市定居趋向上,中小城市成为新生代农民工主要的定居流向,属地就近定居成为新生代农民工未来城市定居的趋势性选择。
其次,在对新生代农民工城市定居选择原因的统计分析后发现,在为何打算“留城”的原因方面,“生活久了,喜欢这里”成为首位原因；在为何“回家乡中小城市”的原因方面,距离及住房因素成为最大的吸引。
再次,在对新生代农民工城市定居意愿影响因素的考察上,以家庭年收入水平、老家房产价值为代表的家庭经济条件将对新生代农民工去家乡中小城市定居有显著影响；职业层级较高的智力型、技术型务工者倾向“留城”；中小城市的打工者更倾向“留城”；属地就近原则显著影响新生代农民工定居去向,如来自打工城市附近农村的新生代农民工更倾向“留城”,来自打工城市附近县城农村及东北三省外的打工者倾向回到家乡中小城市定居。
基于以上的研究发现,论文又从住房、就业及大、中小城市定居政策差异三个方面对促进新生代农民工定居城市的政策作了探讨。
As the world's largest developing country, China's rural-urban migration features its special "China's path":non-agriculturalization of migrant workers isn't synchronized with the change of citizenship. In2013, China's urbanization rate reached53.73%and the urban population has exceeded the rural population. China's urbanization rate is based on counting up all of the inhabitants living in cities who cover a large number of migrant workers in cities without urban household registration. However, these involved migrant workers have not enjoyed equal basic urban public services with the local residents. The "semi-urbanization" status of migrant workers arouses new urban internal contradictions. How to promote and guide the urban settlement willingness of migrant workers is becoming a must involved in the development of China's urbanization.
The research focuses on the New-generaion of Migrant Workers with stronger will to settle in cities and examines the intention of staying and returning to their small and medium-sized cities in hometowns through statistical analysis and mlogit model regression to find the trend of settling in small and medium-sized cities and settlement by territorial proximity. This study enriches the theory of citizenization of migrant workers featuring two stage "farmers-migrant workers-citizens and makes the status of study shortage on settling in small and medium-sized cities changed. Research results will provide references for macro urbanization policies and different policies for different type of destination cities.
Based on the field survey data from cities of different levels, the thesis makes statistical analyses on the trend, the reasons, the probability of intention-behaviors and intention differences of migrants with different individual characteristics, then analyzes the influencing factors of urban intention and similarities and differences of factors for different samples.
The main findings are as followed:
Firstly, settling in small and medium-sized cities is becoming the main settlement intention. And they tend to settle by territorial proximity.
Secondly, the reasons for staying in destionation cities are fondness of the working cities after long working and living there, while the ones for returning to their small and medium-sized cities in hometowns are considerations of distances and housing.
Thirdly, to the influencing factors, the household economic conditions represented by annual household income and housing value in hometown show significant effects on the intention of settling in small and medium-sized cities in hometown; the migrants working in small and medium-sized cities tend to settle down the working cities; those whose occupation is intellectual and technical tend to stay; the New-generation of Migrant Workers tends to settle down cities belonged to their hometown.
According the above findings, the thesis then discusses the policies to promote urban settlement of the New-generation of Migrant Workers from three aspects of employment, housing, and differences in settlement policies among large, medium-sized and small cities.
引文
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109. Zhao Yaohui.2003. The Role of Migrant Networks in Labor Migration:The Case of China. Contemporary Economic Policy,21(4):500-511.
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