西太平洋暖池变异及其机制研究
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摘要
西太平洋暖池（WPWP）是热带太平洋海表面温度场（Sea SurfaceTemperature, SST）的主要模态，是调制热带太平洋乃至全球气候的关键因子，其变异特征及其物理机制备受人们关注，成为当今海洋/气候学研究的前沿热点之一。本文基于目前最新的NOAA AVHRR SST、WHOI OAFlux、JAMSTECMOAA GPV等十余套观测（或再分析）资料和IPCC AR5等模式或同化资料，紧绕WPWP变异这一核心问题，在季节内、年际、年代际和百年左右时间尺度上研究了WPWP的强度和位置的变异特征与物理机制。论文的主要研究结果如下：
一、发现WPWP面积具有很强的季节内振荡（可与其年际变率相比拟），揭示其具有年际调制和明显长期减弱趋势，并阐释其物理机制。
（1）发现WPWP面积存在着显著的季节内振荡（ISO），其振幅可达1.71012m2，与年际变异的振幅（1.81012m2）非常接近，但没有规则的周期，只有约为60天准周期。研究表明，Madden-Julian Oscillation（MJO）是WPWP季节内振荡的来源：一方面，MJO引起暖池区尤其是暖池南北边界区域的对流和海表面热通量的季节内振荡，进而影响暖池南北边界在经向上的季节内伸缩和暖池面积的季节内变化；另一方面通过产生海洋Kelvin波并向东传播，引起中东太平洋平流季节内变化，进而驱动暖池东边界在纬向上的季节内伸缩和暖池面积的季节内变化。计算结果还显示，在暖池东边界区，MJO导致的季节内海表面净热通量和纬向流占主要贡献，而在暖池南北边界区则主要是海表面热通量的季节内变化导致的。前人只研究了WPWP表面积的季节到年代际变化，本文在一定程度上弥补了学界对WPWP空间尺寸变异的一个认识空白。
（2）揭示MJO的年际变化导致西太平洋暖池面积ISO的年际变化。WPWP ISO存在着很强的年际变化。其中1982、1992、1995、1996、1997、2002、2009和2010年为强WPWP ISO年，而1991、1993、1994、1998、2000、2001和2004年为弱WPWP ISO年。利用合成分析方法诊断了WPWP ISO年际变化的物理机制，结果表明MJO的年际变化是暖池面积的季节内振荡的年际调制的来源，具体是：MJO信号具有明显的年际变化，导致暖池边界区域海表面热通量季节内振荡的年际变化，进而导致SST季节内振荡的年际变化，最终形成WPWP面积ISO的年际调制。
（3）发现WPWP面积ISO明显的长期减弱趋势，并给出物理机制。在1982–2011年间，WPWP ISO（振幅）存在很明显的减弱趋势。这30年间，暖池季节内振荡指数ISOw p总共下降了0.71012m2（约为其平均值的41%），平均每年大约下降为平均值的1.4%。诊断分析表明，太平洋MJO指数也呈现出非常明显的下降趋势，MJO的减弱导致海表面热通量和海表面流季节内振荡的减弱，进而引起热带西太平洋SST季节内振荡和WPWP ISO的减弱。
二、西太平洋暖池分裂现象及其物理机制
（1）发现了一种前人未曾提到的现象：WPWP分裂现象。详细考察了WPWP在1982–2011年间的演变（每隔20天考察一次）后，结果发现WPWP在特定时间里西太平洋暖池会被一个低温水域分割成2个部分，即发生WPWP分裂现象。WPWP分裂区域大体上在0–16°N和120–180°E区域内。暖池在分裂期具有2个核心，一个在15°N–20°N之间，另一个则在5°S附近。WPWP分裂现象的发现推进了对暖池结构的传统认识。
（2）物理机制：气旋式环流异常（上升流加强）是导致暖池分裂的主要原因。统计结果表明，除极个别事件外暖池分裂事件基本上都发生在El Ni o事件发展期7–9月。诊断结果表明，WPWP分裂现象主要是与ENSO相关的海洋环流过程有关：在El Ni o发展期，NEC和NECC同时加强，西边界暖池核心区产生气旋式环流异常（上升流加强），SST降低，从而导致西太平洋暖池分裂现象。
三、WPWP的年际－年代际及长期变化趋势与物理机制
（1）前人在研究WPWP时“言年际变化必ENSO”，但问题是：WPWP年际变化都与ENSO相关吗？本文结果表明，虽然WPWP的纬向移动主要与ENSO相关联，但是WPWP强度（如热含量，OHC）的年际变化却不仅仅与ENSO相关。本文提出、定义了一个能描述三维暖池空间位置的变量WPWP热心（Heat Center，HC），其纬向位置的年际变化确与ENSO相联。而WPWP OHC则不同:将WPWP OHC序列与Ni o指数对比，发现二者在很多时段并不吻合甚至反位相。这说明WPWP强度的年际变化绝非仅仅是与ENSO相关。通过合成分析发现，年际时间尺度上经向风场在赤道太平洋辐合/辐散，引起海水和热量在赤道太平洋的辐合/辐散，进而形成了WPWP强度的年际变化。因此，不能说WPWP的年际变化都与ENSO相关。
（2）提出了一种计算时间序列长期变化趋势的新方法滑动趋势法,并运用这种方法研究了WPWP在过去130多年的变化趋势。以往估计WPWP长期变化趋势时，结果往往会受到显著年代际变化干扰的影响。利用“滑动趋势法”可以有效消除时间序列中较短时间尺度波动（如年代际）对趋势估计的影响。据此，本文计算了1874–2005年间WPWP二维热心和表面积的长期变化趋势，发现WPWP面积在这132年间以3.21010m2yr1的速度扩张，其热心以0.007yr1的速度向东移动。同时，利用滑动趋势法重新计算的1955–2003年间暖池的扩张趋势为111010m2yr1，修正了Cravatte et al.（2009）因年代际振荡引入的约30%的相对误差。
此外，本文利用EEMD-希尔伯特-黄变换得到了二维暖池热心和表面积的年代际主模态，发现在1870–2009年间热心经度年代际模态周期在30~40年附近摆动，且在20世纪前50年中年代际变化偏弱。而暖池面积的年代际主模态周期在20~30年间摆动，其中1870至1890年代频率偏低。
The Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) is the primary mode of sea surfacetemperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean and plays an essential role in regionaland global climate system. The WPWP variability and its mechanism have attractedtremendous attention in the oceanographic and meteorological community as one ofhot topics in the ocean/climate studies. In the present paper, variations of the WPWPintensity and displacement are investigated on intraseasonal, interannual, interdecadalto centurial time scales, and the physical mechanisms of the multi-scale WPWPvariabilities are also explored. A dozen newly available observational datasets (orreanalysis) including NOAA AVHRR SST, WHOI OAFlux and JAMSTEC MOAAGPV combing model outputs (e.g., IPCC AR5) and assimilations (say SODA) areemployed in the present study. The main conclusions are as follows.
1. It is discovered that the WPWP area has strong intraseasonal oscillation(comparable to its interannual variability), of which the interannual modulationand long-term decrease trend, and their corresponding mechanisms are alsoexamined.
1). It is revealed that the WPWP size (area) possesses drastic intraseasonaloscillation (ISO). The amplitude of WPWP ISO is1.71012m2, which is close tothat of interannual variation (1.81012m2). However, there is no regular periodpertaining to WPWP ISO, except a quasi-period around60days. Further study showsthat the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the source of the WPWP ISO. On the onehand, the MJO induces the ISO of convection and sea surface heat flux in the WPWP,especially in the region of warm pool Northern/Southern Boundary (NB/SB), leadingto the intraseasonal meridional movement of NB/SB, and hence the intraseasonalvariation of WPWP size. On the other hand, the MJO sets off the ISO of advection inthe central-eastern Pacific Ocean by producing eastward propagating Kelvin waves,triggering the intraseasonal east-west migration of the Eastern Boundary (EB) and the ISO of WPWP size. It is also shown that the SST ISO in the EB region is determinedby the MJO induced intraseasonal variation of advection and sea surface heat flux,whereas in the NB/SB region, the intraseasonal sea surface heat flux is dominant.Since previous studies focus on seasonal to interdecadal time scales, this paperproposes another view on the WPWP variability in terms of its size.
2). MJO-induced interannual modulation of the WPWP ISO is exposed. It issuggested that the WPWP ISO itself displays noteworthy interannual variation.Specifically,1982,1992,1995,1996,1997,2002,2009and2010are strong WPWPISO years, while1991,1993,1994,1998,2000,2001and2004are weak years.Composite analysis suggests that the interannual variability of the MJO is themodulating factor for the interannual variability of WPWP ISO. In detail, the evidentinterannual variation of the MJO drives the interannual change of the sea surface heatflux ISO surrounding the WPWP, and hence generates the modulation of WPWP areaISO on an interannual time scale.
3). Significant descending trend of WPWP ISO and its mechanism. Between1982and2011, the WPWP ISO (amplitude) has a remarkable long-term descendingtrend. During the30years, the WPWP ISO index was decreased by0.71012m2(about41%of its average), i.e., by1.4%yr-1. Diagnostic analysis shows that the MJOindex in the Pacific Ocean was decreasing during that period. As a result, both the seasurface heat flux ISO and advection ISO are suppressed, leading to the weakened SSTISO and WPWP ISO.
2. WPWP Split and its physical mechanism.
1). A phenomenon of WPWP split is pointed out for the first time. Theevolution of the WPWP during1982–2011is investigated (every20days) and it isrevealed that the WPWP is divided into two parts by cool water in certain periods, i.e.,WPWP split takes place. In general, the split zone occurs within0–16°N and120–180°E. The split WPWP has two cores: one is located between15°N and20°N,and another is around5°S.
2). Physical mechanism: cyclonic circulation anomaly (enhanced upwelling) is the main cause of WPWP split. Statistical results indicate that the WPWP splitevents usually comes during the developing phases of El Ni o events(July–September) with few exceptions. It is concluded that ENSO-related oceancirculation anomaly accounts for the WPWP split. During El Ni o developing phasesboth the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and North Equatorial Countercurrent(NECC) are strengthened. Consequently, a cyclonic circulation anomaly andanomalous upwelling emerges in the region mentioned above. Then SST is decreasedover there, and hence the split of WPWP is formed.
3. Interannual-Interdecadal variability and long-term trend of the WPWPand the corresponding mechanisms.
1). In the past the interannual variability of WPWP was almost always related toENSO. But the question is: are the interannual variations of the WPWP all relatedto ENSO? It is suggested in the present paper that yes the zonal displacement ofWPW is closely related to ENSO, but the interannual variability of the WPWPintensity (say heat content, OHC) is not. A new variable named WPWP heat center(WPHC) is proposed and defined to describe the3-D characteristics of WPWP.WPHC is indeed closely related to ENSO. However, the WPWP OHC is quitedifferent. It is found from comparison between the WPWP OHC with Ni o index thatthey are inconsistent (not corresponding), even out-of-phase in many cases,suggesting ENSO is not the only reason for the interannual variability of WPWPintensity. Based on composite analysis, it is concluded that meridional wind fieldconvergence/divergence in the equatorial Pacific Ocean inter-annually, can induce thesea water and heat convergence/divergence in the WPWP, and ultimately can alsocause interannual variability of the WPWP intensity. Therefore, not all the interannualvariation of WPWP is attributed to ENSO.
2). A new method named “Running Trend Method”(RTM) is designed toestimate long-term trend of a time series. RTM is utilized to calculate the trendof the WPWP in the past130years. The long-term trends of the WPWP assessed inthe previous studies are usually disturbed by sizeable interdecadal variation. RTM caneffectively remove the influence of short-time oscillation (e.g., interdecadal time scale) in figuring out a long-term trend. The trend of two-dimension WPWP HC and surfacearea during1874–2005is computed using RTM. It is found that the WPWP area hasbeen increasing with a speed of3.21010m2yr1and the WPWP HC has beenmoving eastward with a speed of0.007yr1in the132years. Particularly, thevariation trend of WPWP area during1955–2003recalculated via RTM is about111010m2yr1, which eliminates about30%relative error induced by theinterdecadal oscillation in the results reported by Cravatte et al.(2009).
In addition, the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)-Hilbert-Huang Transform(HHT) is employed to examine the intrinsic mode of interdecadal variability of the2-dimentional WPWP HC and surface area. From1870to2009, the interdecadalvariability of the WPWP HC longitude is dominated by the period of30–40years,with relatively weak variability before1950s. The WPWP area possesses interdecadalperiods of20–30years and has lower frequencies during1870–1890.
一、发现WPWP面积具有很强的季节内振荡（可与其年际变率相比拟），揭示其具有年际调制和明显长期减弱趋势，并阐释其物理机制。
（1）发现WPWP面积存在着显著的季节内振荡（ISO），其振幅可达1.71012m2，与年际变异的振幅（1.81012m2）非常接近，但没有规则的周期，只有约为60天准周期。研究表明，Madden-Julian Oscillation（MJO）是WPWP季节内振荡的来源：一方面，MJO引起暖池区尤其是暖池南北边界区域的对流和海表面热通量的季节内振荡，进而影响暖池南北边界在经向上的季节内伸缩和暖池面积的季节内变化；另一方面通过产生海洋Kelvin波并向东传播，引起中东太平洋平流季节内变化，进而驱动暖池东边界在纬向上的季节内伸缩和暖池面积的季节内变化。计算结果还显示，在暖池东边界区，MJO导致的季节内海表面净热通量和纬向流占主要贡献，而在暖池南北边界区则主要是海表面热通量的季节内变化导致的。前人只研究了WPWP表面积的季节到年代际变化，本文在一定程度上弥补了学界对WPWP空间尺寸变异的一个认识空白。
（2）揭示MJO的年际变化导致西太平洋暖池面积ISO的年际变化。WPWP ISO存在着很强的年际变化。其中1982、1992、1995、1996、1997、2002、2009和2010年为强WPWP ISO年，而1991、1993、1994、1998、2000、2001和2004年为弱WPWP ISO年。利用合成分析方法诊断了WPWP ISO年际变化的物理机制，结果表明MJO的年际变化是暖池面积的季节内振荡的年际调制的来源，具体是：MJO信号具有明显的年际变化，导致暖池边界区域海表面热通量季节内振荡的年际变化，进而导致SST季节内振荡的年际变化，最终形成WPWP面积ISO的年际调制。
（3）发现WPWP面积ISO明显的长期减弱趋势，并给出物理机制。在1982–2011年间，WPWP ISO（振幅）存在很明显的减弱趋势。这30年间，暖池季节内振荡指数ISOw p总共下降了0.71012m2（约为其平均值的41%），平均每年大约下降为平均值的1.4%。诊断分析表明，太平洋MJO指数也呈现出非常明显的下降趋势，MJO的减弱导致海表面热通量和海表面流季节内振荡的减弱，进而引起热带西太平洋SST季节内振荡和WPWP ISO的减弱。
二、西太平洋暖池分裂现象及其物理机制
（1）发现了一种前人未曾提到的现象：WPWP分裂现象。详细考察了WPWP在1982–2011年间的演变（每隔20天考察一次）后，结果发现WPWP在特定时间里西太平洋暖池会被一个低温水域分割成2个部分，即发生WPWP分裂现象。WPWP分裂区域大体上在0–16°N和120–180°E区域内。暖池在分裂期具有2个核心，一个在15°N–20°N之间，另一个则在5°S附近。WPWP分裂现象的发现推进了对暖池结构的传统认识。
（2）物理机制：气旋式环流异常（上升流加强）是导致暖池分裂的主要原因。统计结果表明，除极个别事件外暖池分裂事件基本上都发生在El Ni o事件发展期7–9月。诊断结果表明，WPWP分裂现象主要是与ENSO相关的海洋环流过程有关：在El Ni o发展期，NEC和NECC同时加强，西边界暖池核心区产生气旋式环流异常（上升流加强），SST降低，从而导致西太平洋暖池分裂现象。
三、WPWP的年际－年代际及长期变化趋势与物理机制
（1）前人在研究WPWP时“言年际变化必ENSO”，但问题是：WPWP年际变化都与ENSO相关吗？本文结果表明，虽然WPWP的纬向移动主要与ENSO相关联，但是WPWP强度（如热含量，OHC）的年际变化却不仅仅与ENSO相关。本文提出、定义了一个能描述三维暖池空间位置的变量WPWP热心（Heat Center，HC），其纬向位置的年际变化确与ENSO相联。而WPWP OHC则不同:将WPWP OHC序列与Ni o指数对比，发现二者在很多时段并不吻合甚至反位相。这说明WPWP强度的年际变化绝非仅仅是与ENSO相关。通过合成分析发现，年际时间尺度上经向风场在赤道太平洋辐合/辐散，引起海水和热量在赤道太平洋的辐合/辐散，进而形成了WPWP强度的年际变化。因此，不能说WPWP的年际变化都与ENSO相关。
（2）提出了一种计算时间序列长期变化趋势的新方法滑动趋势法,并运用这种方法研究了WPWP在过去130多年的变化趋势。以往估计WPWP长期变化趋势时，结果往往会受到显著年代际变化干扰的影响。利用“滑动趋势法”可以有效消除时间序列中较短时间尺度波动（如年代际）对趋势估计的影响。据此，本文计算了1874–2005年间WPWP二维热心和表面积的长期变化趋势，发现WPWP面积在这132年间以3.21010m2yr1的速度扩张，其热心以0.007yr1的速度向东移动。同时，利用滑动趋势法重新计算的1955–2003年间暖池的扩张趋势为111010m2yr1，修正了Cravatte et al.（2009）因年代际振荡引入的约30%的相对误差。
此外，本文利用EEMD-希尔伯特-黄变换得到了二维暖池热心和表面积的年代际主模态，发现在1870–2009年间热心经度年代际模态周期在30~40年附近摆动，且在20世纪前50年中年代际变化偏弱。而暖池面积的年代际主模态周期在20~30年间摆动，其中1870至1890年代频率偏低。
The Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) is the primary mode of sea surfacetemperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean and plays an essential role in regionaland global climate system. The WPWP variability and its mechanism have attractedtremendous attention in the oceanographic and meteorological community as one ofhot topics in the ocean/climate studies. In the present paper, variations of the WPWPintensity and displacement are investigated on intraseasonal, interannual, interdecadalto centurial time scales, and the physical mechanisms of the multi-scale WPWPvariabilities are also explored. A dozen newly available observational datasets (orreanalysis) including NOAA AVHRR SST, WHOI OAFlux and JAMSTEC MOAAGPV combing model outputs (e.g., IPCC AR5) and assimilations (say SODA) areemployed in the present study. The main conclusions are as follows.
1. It is discovered that the WPWP area has strong intraseasonal oscillation(comparable to its interannual variability), of which the interannual modulationand long-term decrease trend, and their corresponding mechanisms are alsoexamined.
1). It is revealed that the WPWP size (area) possesses drastic intraseasonaloscillation (ISO). The amplitude of WPWP ISO is1.71012m2, which is close tothat of interannual variation (1.81012m2). However, there is no regular periodpertaining to WPWP ISO, except a quasi-period around60days. Further study showsthat the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the source of the WPWP ISO. On the onehand, the MJO induces the ISO of convection and sea surface heat flux in the WPWP,especially in the region of warm pool Northern/Southern Boundary (NB/SB), leadingto the intraseasonal meridional movement of NB/SB, and hence the intraseasonalvariation of WPWP size. On the other hand, the MJO sets off the ISO of advection inthe central-eastern Pacific Ocean by producing eastward propagating Kelvin waves,triggering the intraseasonal east-west migration of the Eastern Boundary (EB) and the ISO of WPWP size. It is also shown that the SST ISO in the EB region is determinedby the MJO induced intraseasonal variation of advection and sea surface heat flux,whereas in the NB/SB region, the intraseasonal sea surface heat flux is dominant.Since previous studies focus on seasonal to interdecadal time scales, this paperproposes another view on the WPWP variability in terms of its size.
2). MJO-induced interannual modulation of the WPWP ISO is exposed. It issuggested that the WPWP ISO itself displays noteworthy interannual variation.Specifically,1982,1992,1995,1996,1997,2002,2009and2010are strong WPWPISO years, while1991,1993,1994,1998,2000,2001and2004are weak years.Composite analysis suggests that the interannual variability of the MJO is themodulating factor for the interannual variability of WPWP ISO. In detail, the evidentinterannual variation of the MJO drives the interannual change of the sea surface heatflux ISO surrounding the WPWP, and hence generates the modulation of WPWP areaISO on an interannual time scale.
3). Significant descending trend of WPWP ISO and its mechanism. Between1982and2011, the WPWP ISO (amplitude) has a remarkable long-term descendingtrend. During the30years, the WPWP ISO index was decreased by0.71012m2(about41%of its average), i.e., by1.4%yr-1. Diagnostic analysis shows that the MJOindex in the Pacific Ocean was decreasing during that period. As a result, both the seasurface heat flux ISO and advection ISO are suppressed, leading to the weakened SSTISO and WPWP ISO.
2. WPWP Split and its physical mechanism.
1). A phenomenon of WPWP split is pointed out for the first time. Theevolution of the WPWP during1982–2011is investigated (every20days) and it isrevealed that the WPWP is divided into two parts by cool water in certain periods, i.e.,WPWP split takes place. In general, the split zone occurs within0–16°N and120–180°E. The split WPWP has two cores: one is located between15°N and20°N,and another is around5°S.
2). Physical mechanism: cyclonic circulation anomaly (enhanced upwelling) is the main cause of WPWP split. Statistical results indicate that the WPWP splitevents usually comes during the developing phases of El Ni o events(July–September) with few exceptions. It is concluded that ENSO-related oceancirculation anomaly accounts for the WPWP split. During El Ni o developing phasesboth the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and North Equatorial Countercurrent(NECC) are strengthened. Consequently, a cyclonic circulation anomaly andanomalous upwelling emerges in the region mentioned above. Then SST is decreasedover there, and hence the split of WPWP is formed.
3. Interannual-Interdecadal variability and long-term trend of the WPWPand the corresponding mechanisms.
1). In the past the interannual variability of WPWP was almost always related toENSO. But the question is: are the interannual variations of the WPWP all relatedto ENSO? It is suggested in the present paper that yes the zonal displacement ofWPW is closely related to ENSO, but the interannual variability of the WPWPintensity (say heat content, OHC) is not. A new variable named WPWP heat center(WPHC) is proposed and defined to describe the3-D characteristics of WPWP.WPHC is indeed closely related to ENSO. However, the WPWP OHC is quitedifferent. It is found from comparison between the WPWP OHC with Ni o index thatthey are inconsistent (not corresponding), even out-of-phase in many cases,suggesting ENSO is not the only reason for the interannual variability of WPWPintensity. Based on composite analysis, it is concluded that meridional wind fieldconvergence/divergence in the equatorial Pacific Ocean inter-annually, can induce thesea water and heat convergence/divergence in the WPWP, and ultimately can alsocause interannual variability of the WPWP intensity. Therefore, not all the interannualvariation of WPWP is attributed to ENSO.
2). A new method named “Running Trend Method”(RTM) is designed toestimate long-term trend of a time series. RTM is utilized to calculate the trendof the WPWP in the past130years. The long-term trends of the WPWP assessed inthe previous studies are usually disturbed by sizeable interdecadal variation. RTM caneffectively remove the influence of short-time oscillation (e.g., interdecadal time scale) in figuring out a long-term trend. The trend of two-dimension WPWP HC and surfacearea during1874–2005is computed using RTM. It is found that the WPWP area hasbeen increasing with a speed of3.21010m2yr1and the WPWP HC has beenmoving eastward with a speed of0.007yr1in the132years. Particularly, thevariation trend of WPWP area during1955–2003recalculated via RTM is about111010m2yr1, which eliminates about30%relative error induced by theinterdecadal oscillation in the results reported by Cravatte et al.(2009).
In addition, the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)-Hilbert-Huang Transform(HHT) is employed to examine the intrinsic mode of interdecadal variability of the2-dimentional WPWP HC and surface area. From1870to2009, the interdecadalvariability of the WPWP HC longitude is dominated by the period of30–40years,with relatively weak variability before1950s. The WPWP area possesses interdecadalperiods of20–30years and has lower frequencies during1870–1890.
引文
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