基于多源数据的常规公交分层次服务水平评价模型
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摘要
随着公共交通在城市交通系统中的作用越发重要,公交运营部门和公众对于公共交通服务水平也越来越关注。以往对于公交服务水平的研究多从宏观层面出发,评价指标体系的建立方法单一,选取的多数指标难以量化,从而导致整体研究的实用性不强。因此,本文以多源公交运行数据为基础,开展针对公交运营服务水平的定量评价方法研究,从公交线路站点、公交线路区段、公交线路整体三个方面分层次的对公交服务水平进行评价,层层递进,相互关联,共同反映公交服务水平的高低。
首先,在公交线路站点层面,选取线路站点停站时间、乘客登量、乘客降量、服务线路数、登降量之差等五个因素作为解释变量,乘客对站点服务水平的人为感受作为反应变量,建立基于累积Logistic回归的公交线路站点服务水平评价模型。
其次,在公交线路区段层面,综合考虑站点服务水平和路段服务水平。其中,采用基于累积Logistic回归的公交线路站点服务水平评价模型获得站点服务水平：以公交车辆满载率、区段内车辆平均速度作为自变量,采用专家打分法建立路段服务水平的加权模型。继而,选取时间变量作为权重,建立基于站点服务水平和路段服务水平的公交线路区段服务水平加权评价模型。
再次,在公交线路层面,选取公交线路区段服务水平作为自变量,通过综合加权法,选取反映乘客需求的区段客流旅行时间PHT (Passenger-Hours Traveled)指标作为权重,对组成公交线路的区段进行加权,建立基于乘客需求的公交线路服务水平评价模型。
最后,选取北京市部分常规公交线路进行实例应用研究。利用已建立的分层次常规公交服务水平评价模型,分别计算早高峰、平峰、晚高峰时段的常规公交服务水平,进行对比评价,对模型的实际应用进行详细分析。
With the increasingly important role that the public transportation plays in the urban transportation system, the public transportation services have received the increased attention from both transit operational departments and the general public. Most of the existing studies on the public transportation services have been conducted at the macro level, the method in establishing the evaluation index system has been simple, and most of the selected indicators have been difficult to be quantified, resulting in a lack of practicality in the studies. Therefore, this thesis focuses on the quantitative study on the evaluation method of the public transportation service level based on the multi-source bus operational data. It evaluates the service levels of the public transportation from three levels, the bus stop, the bus line section, and the whole bus line, which are stratified, progressive, inter-correlated, and jointly reflect the level of bus services.
First, at the stop level of bus lines, five factors are selected as the explanatory variables, including dwelling times at stops of bus line, volume of boarding passengers, volume of alighting passengers, number of bus lines serviced, and difference between boarding and alighting passengers, the feeling of passengers about the level of service at the stop is selected as the response variable. Then, the service evaluation model at the stop level is established based on the cumulative logistic regression.
Then, at the segment level of bus lines, the service levels both at the stop and in the road section are taken into the consideration. The service level at the stop is calculated by the proposed evaluation model based on the cumulative logistic regression. For the service level in the section, the thesis selects the bus occupancy rate and the average vehicle speed in the section as the independent variables to build the calculation model using the expert evaluation survey. Thereby, the weighted service evaluation model in the segment level is established using the time as the weight, based on the service level at the stop and the service level in the section.
Afterward, at the level of the whole bus line, by using the comprehensive evaluation method, the study chooses the service levels of all segments as independent variables and the Passenger-Hours Traveled (PHT) index as the weights to establish the bus line service level evaluation model based on the demand of the transit passengers.
Finally, some regular bus lines in Beijing are selected in a case study with the established models. The service levels in the morning peak hours, non-peak hours, and evening peak hours are calculated by the corresponding models established in the thesis. The results are then comparatively analyzed to validate the practical application of the models.
首先,在公交线路站点层面,选取线路站点停站时间、乘客登量、乘客降量、服务线路数、登降量之差等五个因素作为解释变量,乘客对站点服务水平的人为感受作为反应变量,建立基于累积Logistic回归的公交线路站点服务水平评价模型。
其次,在公交线路区段层面,综合考虑站点服务水平和路段服务水平。其中,采用基于累积Logistic回归的公交线路站点服务水平评价模型获得站点服务水平：以公交车辆满载率、区段内车辆平均速度作为自变量,采用专家打分法建立路段服务水平的加权模型。继而,选取时间变量作为权重,建立基于站点服务水平和路段服务水平的公交线路区段服务水平加权评价模型。
再次,在公交线路层面,选取公交线路区段服务水平作为自变量,通过综合加权法,选取反映乘客需求的区段客流旅行时间PHT (Passenger-Hours Traveled)指标作为权重,对组成公交线路的区段进行加权,建立基于乘客需求的公交线路服务水平评价模型。
最后,选取北京市部分常规公交线路进行实例应用研究。利用已建立的分层次常规公交服务水平评价模型,分别计算早高峰、平峰、晚高峰时段的常规公交服务水平,进行对比评价,对模型的实际应用进行详细分析。
With the increasingly important role that the public transportation plays in the urban transportation system, the public transportation services have received the increased attention from both transit operational departments and the general public. Most of the existing studies on the public transportation services have been conducted at the macro level, the method in establishing the evaluation index system has been simple, and most of the selected indicators have been difficult to be quantified, resulting in a lack of practicality in the studies. Therefore, this thesis focuses on the quantitative study on the evaluation method of the public transportation service level based on the multi-source bus operational data. It evaluates the service levels of the public transportation from three levels, the bus stop, the bus line section, and the whole bus line, which are stratified, progressive, inter-correlated, and jointly reflect the level of bus services.
First, at the stop level of bus lines, five factors are selected as the explanatory variables, including dwelling times at stops of bus line, volume of boarding passengers, volume of alighting passengers, number of bus lines serviced, and difference between boarding and alighting passengers, the feeling of passengers about the level of service at the stop is selected as the response variable. Then, the service evaluation model at the stop level is established based on the cumulative logistic regression.
Then, at the segment level of bus lines, the service levels both at the stop and in the road section are taken into the consideration. The service level at the stop is calculated by the proposed evaluation model based on the cumulative logistic regression. For the service level in the section, the thesis selects the bus occupancy rate and the average vehicle speed in the section as the independent variables to build the calculation model using the expert evaluation survey. Thereby, the weighted service evaluation model in the segment level is established using the time as the weight, based on the service level at the stop and the service level in the section.
Afterward, at the level of the whole bus line, by using the comprehensive evaluation method, the study chooses the service levels of all segments as independent variables and the Passenger-Hours Traveled (PHT) index as the weights to establish the bus line service level evaluation model based on the demand of the transit passengers.
Finally, some regular bus lines in Beijing are selected in a case study with the established models. The service levels in the morning peak hours, non-peak hours, and evening peak hours are calculated by the corresponding models established in the thesis. The results are then comparatively analyzed to validate the practical application of the models.
引文
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[2]魏领军,张利,魏领红,陆建荣.城市公交客流调查数据修正方法研究[J].汽车科技,2009(1)：37-39.
[3]朱晓宏,丁卫东,孙泰屹.公交客流信息采集技术研究[J].城市车辆,2005(1)：55-56.
[4]陆永宁.IC卡应用系统[M].南京：东南大学出版社,2000.5.
[5]章威,徐建闵.基于GPS与IC卡的公交OD量采集方法[J].交通与计算机,2006,24(2)：21-23.
[6]KittelsonI& Associates, KFH Group, et al. Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual [M]. Washington, D.C.:Transportation Research Board of the National Academies,2003.
[7]Alter C H. Evaluation of Public Transit Service:the Level-of-Service Concept [R]. TRR,1976, (606):323-330.
[8]Dhingra S L, Basins S K. Analysis of Attribute of In-tracery Mass Transportation—A Case Study [A]. Proceding of International Conference on Transportation System Study [C]. IIT, New Delhi,1987.
[9]Richard G. Dowling. Extension of Level of Service Concept to Transportation Systems [J].77th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington D.C., January 1998.
[10]Graham Wall, Mike McDonald. Improving Bus Service Quality and Information in Winchester [J].Transport Policy,2007,14(2):165-179.
[11]Paul Ryus, Jon Ausman, Daniel Teaf, Marc Cooper, Mark Knoblauch. Development of Florida's Transit Level of Service Indicator [J].79th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington D.C., January 2000.
[12]李维斌,徐诚.城市公共交通服务工程学概论[M].长春：吉林科学技术出版社,1994.
[13]陈茜,陈学武.城市常规公共交通发展水平综合评价指标体系研究[J].城市交通,2003,(1)：8-12.
[14]裴玉龙,徐大伟.基于模糊推理的公共交通分担率预测研究[J].哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学报,2003,36(7)：22-26.
[15]魏华.城市公交服务质量与可靠性评价研究[D].长安大学学位论文,2005.6.
[16]徐以群,陈茜.城市公共交通服务水平的指标体系[J].城市交通,2006,4(6)：42-46.
[17]高桂凤,魏华,严宝杰.城市公交服务质量可靠性评价研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2007,31(1)：140-143.
[18]李春清,宋瑞,韩洋.城市公交服务水平综合评价指标体系研究[J].交通标准化,2008,(9)：107-110.
[19]Xumei Chen, Lei Yu, Yushi Zhang, Jifu Guo. Analyzing Urban Bus Service Reliability at the Stop, Route, and Network Levels [J]. Transportation Research Part A,2009,43(8):722-734.
[20]Martin Guttenplan, Bruce W. Landis, Linda Crider, Douglas S. McLeod. Multi-modal Level of Service Analysis at a Planning Level [J].80th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington D.C., January 2001.
[21]Fred Hall, Sarah Wakefield, Ahmed Al-Kaisy. Freeway Quality of Service:What Really Matters to Drivers and Passengers [J].80th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington D.C, January 2001.
[22]Dowling Richard, Flannery Aimee, Landis Bruce, Petritsh Theodore, Rouphail Naqui, Ryus Paul. Multimodal Level of Service for Urban Streets [J].87th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington D.C, January 2008.
[23]Brain S. Eads, Nagui M. Rouphail, Adolf D. May, Fred Hall, et al. The Highway Capacity Manual [M], Washington, D.C:Transportation Research Board of the National Research Council,2000.
[24]彭晓伟,胡子祥.城市公交服务质量乘客评价的实证研究[J].西南交通大学学报,2007,8(5)：12-16.
[25]黄婷,焦海贤,李秀丽,曾小林.基于乘客观点的公交服务质量评价体系及方法研究[J].重庆交通大学学报,2008,27(5)：781-784.
[26]刘武,李文子.城市公交服务乘客满意度指数模型[J].城市交通,2007,5(6)：65-69.
[27]覃频频,陆凯平,黄大明.基于三方评价主体的公交服务质量模糊综合评价[J].广西大学学报,2006,31(1)：59-63.
[28]邵祖峰.城市公共交通服务质量评价神经网络模型[J].城市管理与科技,2005,7(4)：178-180.
[29]李春清,宋瑞,欧阳展.非线性优化AHP法在公交服务水平评价中的应用[J].城市公共交通,2008,(5)：32-35.
[30]苏友富,孙静怡,王瑞,李亚军.昆明市公共交通运营服务水平分析[J].交通科技与经济,2008,10(6)：91-93.
[31]张萌,毛保华,陈团生.基于层次—主成分分析法的常规公共交通系统综合评价[J].城市公共交通,2007,(7)：33-37.
[32]骆勇,叶九龙,郭秀春.城市公共交通系统服务水平的综合评价方法研究[C].第八届国际交通新技术应用大会,2004,8：812-816.
[33]R. Murugesan. Comparison of Level of Public Transport Service of Different Ownerships by Numerical Rating and Fuzzy Set Approaches [J].82th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington D.C, January 2003.
[34]Lin Zhang, Panos D. Prevedouros. Signalized Intersection LOS that Accounts for User Perceptions [J].83th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington D.C, January 2004.
[35]桑秀丽.城市公共交通服务水平评价体系研究-昆明市公交专用道为例[D].昆明理工大学硕士学位论文,2007.6.
[36]张喜成,汪江洪.粗糙集综合评价法在公交服务水平评价中的应用[J].统计与决策,2006,(4)：46-48.
[37]尹峰,李枫.公共交通服务水平的模糊评价[J].上海交通大学学报,2000,34(Sup.)：100-104.
[38]王炜,杨新苗,陈学武.城市公共交通系统规划方法与管理技术[M].北京：科学出版社,2002.2.
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