中国税收超经济增长问题研究
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摘要
本文从中国税收超经济增长的现实出发,依据税收与经济增长的理论,探讨了税收与经济增长的弹性区间,分析了税收超经济增长的影响因素,提出影响税收增长的主要因素除经济因素外,还有重复征税和税收征管因素,得出经济快速增长时期,税收快于经济增长,当经济下滑,税收快于经济下滑的结论。同时,税收超经济增长必然对宏观税负产生较大的影响,但由于各个国家计算宏观税负的口径不一致,导致中国宏观税负是否在合理区间的界定问题上,学术界和实际部门产生了较大的分歧。本文从不同口径及视角分析了中国宏观税负水平,并对区域税负差异进行了结构分析,对中国宏观税负水平得出基本判断,即宏观税负水平(小口径)目前在合理区间范围内,但随着税收超经济快速增长,宏观税负偏重趋势明显。按宏观税负的中口径和大口径计算,即财政负担偏重,政府负担已远远超过宏观税负的合理范围。因此,制定税收与经济增长协调发展的财税政策,规范税收制度,克服重复征税是下一步税收制度改革的重点。
Economic growth is looked as, usually, the most important index of the long-run economic welfare growth for one country. If the GDP of one country doesn't increase in a typical time, we can say that the economic activity is ineffective or the economic policy doesn't work well in that country. Lasting economic growth with less fluctuation can improve the level of people's live as we can see in developed countries. Since our country begins to reform and open to the outside, the economic start to develop. Owing to the lasting economic growth with less fluctuation for nearly 30 years, we've taken our country people from starves successfully and the lives of them have become easier.
As we all know, once the economic structure and the tax system don't change, the revenue will increase by the same pace as the economic growth. Howere, in fact, in China, the revenue grows with a higher speed than the economy does from 1994 to 2007. The revenue increase exceeds that of the economy which means there is something that doesn't harmony between the two. What causes this disharmony? Will it does some harm to the economic growth? These questions will not only influence the opinion on the quality of the revenue increase of our country in recent years, but also lead us to think over the relationship between the revenue increase and economic growth in theory and the burden of the revenue on the macroeconomics, and it will also change the institution and system of the tax revenue and government finance of our country in the future.
The revenue increasing with a exceed speed will add people's expend on tax and will do some harm to the energy of economy, so the question on the burden of tax on macroeconomics is the core question of evaluating whether the revenue is proportion with the economic growth. On one hand, it will influence the ability of the country to collect the tax and the ability to control the macro-economics. On the other hand, it will change the burden of enterprises and people's expenditure on tax, and what's more, it will restrict the economics development. According to Laffer curve, there is an optimal tax rate or an optimal range of tax rate for one economy. It is very valuable in theory and very important in realism to find this optimal range of the tax rate for our country. We can compare the macro-tax rate of our country with this optimal range of tax rate to find that whether the macro-tax rate of our country is feasible or not and to find a macro-tax rate which is feasible for our country that not only can make the revenue afford for the expenditure of our state, but also can enhance the strength and quality of our economy.
Working this paper, I use method of empirical research as well as normative research, quantitative research as well as qualitative research, and the comparative research. This paper draw a good conclusion on the macro-level tax burden of our country by comparing different tax rate in different time, now and history, of different countries. This document also makes some suggestions on the improvement and perfection of the tax system of our country, and helps the government to make perfect decision on the tax policy which can boosts the economic prosperous.
This document constitutes by seven chapters which works as the frame of this paper.
Chapter one as a introduction of this paper present the problems and introduce the core context and the background of this research. In this chapter, I also interpret some concept and introduce the idea of the method that I will use in the later chapters.
Chapter two is a review of the literature. In this chapter I introduce the state quo of the theory on revenue increase、economics growth、macro-tax rate and the relationship between the two.
Chapter three is the analysis of the elasticity of revenue increase on economics growth. This is one of the most important chapters of this document. I use the method of econometric analysis、structural analysis and changing the elastic range to delimit the elastic range of revenue increase on economics growth in different level and from different aspect.
Chapter four demonstrates the factors which cause the speed of revenue grows exceed what the economy does. I propose three major factors on the foundation of the analysis in chapter three that answer for different speed of revenue and economy including the revenue increase is based on the economics growth、the same tax base will be taxed for more than once and the advancement of the tax administration.
Chapter five is the analysis of the macro-level tax burden from different aspect. This document shows that the high tax elasticity makes the revenue increase by a higher speed than what the economy can do which will make the macro-level tax burden heavier year by year. It is incomplete to analysis the macro-level tax burden only from a narrow aspect. In order to draw a perfect inclusion, this chapter takes an abroad angle of view. Taking the analysis of the relationship between macro-level tax burden and economics growth as the first step, I compare the macro-level tax burden of our country with that of the foreign countries from all aspect, and analyze the macro-tax rate for government revenue and estimate the tax capacity of people from city and countryside respectively. I also analyze the social welfare on the side of taxpayer psychologically, and interpret the "government luxury" as the finance outside the budget without check from the government expenditure side.
Chapter six is about the difference of the macro-level tax burden of different region and how the difference associates with the regional economics development. First I review the theory on the tax burden and the regional economics development, then I analyze the structure of the tax system and find the reasons what lead to the difference of tax burden among the different region. It can be described as: (1) the difference among tax source; (2) the difference among the application of the preferential taxation policies; (3) the difference among the transfer of government appropriation.
Chapter seven is the suggestion to harmonize the revenue increase with the economics development. To stop double taxation、improve the reformation of the tax system、transform the fee into tax and regulate the government income are all the suggestion that we can do.
The innovation of this document is to measure the elasticity range of the tax grows. Through comprehensively analyzing the fundamental、long term、regional and accidental factors that answers for the revenue increase with extremely higher speed than economy goes, I find that the double taxation is the main reason that cause the revenue increases with a higher speed. The double taxation cause the revenue increases with a higher speed when the whole economy is in broom and it also causes the revenue grows with a lower speed when the whole economy is in recession. This document compares the macro-level tax burden of our country with those of other countries by analyzing a lot of data collecting from other countries and finds that the macro-level tax burden will become heavier year by year with the revenue increasing with a higher speed than the economy goes. We should weigh the macro-level tax burden from a wide range of views and we should compare the government revenue and the people's income among different countries. We also should think about the feeling that the taxpayer receive from the heavier tax burden and social welfare. At last, we find that the macro-level tax burden is heavy when looked from a wide range of view and the macro-level tax burden is little when looked from a narrow range of view. I think we should first regulate the tax institution and erect a practicable taxation system that is good for the replacement of fee by tax.
This document show the main reasons what cause the revenue increase with a higher speed than what the economy goes and reconsider the problem whether the macro-level tax burden is heavy or not through the complicated research with lots of detailed data. This document not only has a high value on the tax theory but also is a good reference to the tax administration.
In this paper I show that the revenue will increase with a higher speed than the economy goes when the economy is broom and the revenue will decline also with a higher speed than the economy does when the economy is in recession. But it also need to be researched empirically further. There is no evidence which can show the revenue will decrease with a higher speed than the economy goes and there is too many work should be done before I can say it is the same thing as to tax elasticity range when economy is in broom as economy is in recession.
Economic growth is looked as, usually, the most important index of the long-run economic welfare growth for one country. If the GDP of one country doesn't increase in a typical time, we can say that the economic activity is ineffective or the economic policy doesn't work well in that country. Lasting economic growth with less fluctuation can improve the level of people's live as we can see in developed countries. Since our country begins to reform and open to the outside, the economic start to develop. Owing to the lasting economic growth with less fluctuation for nearly 30 years, we've taken our country people from starves successfully and the lives of them have become easier.
As we all know, once the economic structure and the tax system don't change, the revenue will increase by the same pace as the economic growth. Howere, in fact, in China, the revenue grows with a higher speed than the economy does from 1994 to 2007. The revenue increase exceeds that of the economy which means there is something that doesn't harmony between the two. What causes this disharmony? Will it does some harm to the economic growth? These questions will not only influence the opinion on the quality of the revenue increase of our country in recent years, but also lead us to think over the relationship between the revenue increase and economic growth in theory and the burden of the revenue on the macroeconomics, and it will also change the institution and system of the tax revenue and government finance of our country in the future.
The revenue increasing with a exceed speed will add people's expend on tax and will do some harm to the energy of economy, so the question on the burden of tax on macroeconomics is the core question of evaluating whether the revenue is proportion with the economic growth. On one hand, it will influence the ability of the country to collect the tax and the ability to control the macro-economics. On the other hand, it will change the burden of enterprises and people's expenditure on tax, and what's more, it will restrict the economics development. According to Laffer curve, there is an optimal tax rate or an optimal range of tax rate for one economy. It is very valuable in theory and very important in realism to find this optimal range of the tax rate for our country. We can compare the macro-tax rate of our country with this optimal range of tax rate to find that whether the macro-tax rate of our country is feasible or not and to find a macro-tax rate which is feasible for our country that not only can make the revenue afford for the expenditure of our state, but also can enhance the strength and quality of our economy.
Working this paper, I use method of empirical research as well as normative research, quantitative research as well as qualitative research, and the comparative research. This paper draw a good conclusion on the macro-level tax burden of our country by comparing different tax rate in different time, now and history, of different countries. This document also makes some suggestions on the improvement and perfection of the tax system of our country, and helps the government to make perfect decision on the tax policy which can boosts the economic prosperous.
This document constitutes by seven chapters which works as the frame of this paper.
Chapter one as a introduction of this paper present the problems and introduce the core context and the background of this research. In this chapter, I also interpret some concept and introduce the idea of the method that I will use in the later chapters.
Chapter two is a review of the literature. In this chapter I introduce the state quo of the theory on revenue increase、economics growth、macro-tax rate and the relationship between the two.
Chapter three is the analysis of the elasticity of revenue increase on economics growth. This is one of the most important chapters of this document. I use the method of econometric analysis、structural analysis and changing the elastic range to delimit the elastic range of revenue increase on economics growth in different level and from different aspect.
Chapter four demonstrates the factors which cause the speed of revenue grows exceed what the economy does. I propose three major factors on the foundation of the analysis in chapter three that answer for different speed of revenue and economy including the revenue increase is based on the economics growth、the same tax base will be taxed for more than once and the advancement of the tax administration.
Chapter five is the analysis of the macro-level tax burden from different aspect. This document shows that the high tax elasticity makes the revenue increase by a higher speed than what the economy can do which will make the macro-level tax burden heavier year by year. It is incomplete to analysis the macro-level tax burden only from a narrow aspect. In order to draw a perfect inclusion, this chapter takes an abroad angle of view. Taking the analysis of the relationship between macro-level tax burden and economics growth as the first step, I compare the macro-level tax burden of our country with that of the foreign countries from all aspect, and analyze the macro-tax rate for government revenue and estimate the tax capacity of people from city and countryside respectively. I also analyze the social welfare on the side of taxpayer psychologically, and interpret the "government luxury" as the finance outside the budget without check from the government expenditure side.
Chapter six is about the difference of the macro-level tax burden of different region and how the difference associates with the regional economics development. First I review the theory on the tax burden and the regional economics development, then I analyze the structure of the tax system and find the reasons what lead to the difference of tax burden among the different region. It can be described as: (1) the difference among tax source; (2) the difference among the application of the preferential taxation policies; (3) the difference among the transfer of government appropriation.
Chapter seven is the suggestion to harmonize the revenue increase with the economics development. To stop double taxation、improve the reformation of the tax system、transform the fee into tax and regulate the government income are all the suggestion that we can do.
The innovation of this document is to measure the elasticity range of the tax grows. Through comprehensively analyzing the fundamental、long term、regional and accidental factors that answers for the revenue increase with extremely higher speed than economy goes, I find that the double taxation is the main reason that cause the revenue increases with a higher speed. The double taxation cause the revenue increases with a higher speed when the whole economy is in broom and it also causes the revenue grows with a lower speed when the whole economy is in recession. This document compares the macro-level tax burden of our country with those of other countries by analyzing a lot of data collecting from other countries and finds that the macro-level tax burden will become heavier year by year with the revenue increasing with a higher speed than the economy goes. We should weigh the macro-level tax burden from a wide range of views and we should compare the government revenue and the people's income among different countries. We also should think about the feeling that the taxpayer receive from the heavier tax burden and social welfare. At last, we find that the macro-level tax burden is heavy when looked from a wide range of view and the macro-level tax burden is little when looked from a narrow range of view. I think we should first regulate the tax institution and erect a practicable taxation system that is good for the replacement of fee by tax.
This document show the main reasons what cause the revenue increase with a higher speed than what the economy goes and reconsider the problem whether the macro-level tax burden is heavy or not through the complicated research with lots of detailed data. This document not only has a high value on the tax theory but also is a good reference to the tax administration.
In this paper I show that the revenue will increase with a higher speed than the economy goes when the economy is broom and the revenue will decline also with a higher speed than the economy does when the economy is in recession. But it also need to be researched empirically further. There is no evidence which can show the revenue will decrease with a higher speed than the economy goes and there is too many work should be done before I can say it is the same thing as to tax elasticity range when economy is in broom as economy is in recession.
引文
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