论外汇储备增长与通货膨胀的关系
摘要
近年来,我国的外汇储备飞速增长,从1996年的1399亿美元到2006年11月突破万亿大关,用9年的时间扩大了8倍多,并于2006年2月底超过日本,成为世界第一外汇储备国。截止2007年12月,我国外汇储备余额已经达到1.53万亿美元。从2001年开始,外汇储备增长率始终保持在30%以上。巨额的外汇储备在经济发展过程中的确起到过一定的积极作用,但是同时外汇储备的超常增长给中国经济秩序的正常运行造成了巨大障碍,中央银行货币政策的独立性也面临着严峻挑战。而另一方面,我国的物价水平在最近几年不断增长,特别是从2006年起,随着作为工业原材料的农产品以及石油价格的大幅上涨,拉开了新一轮通货膨胀的序幕。那么,外汇储备作为衡量国际收支平衡和外部均衡的指标,与作为内部均衡衡量指标的通货膨胀之间是否存在相关关系,甚至因果关系,这是值得研究的问题。正因为如此,本文将围绕外汇储备增长与通货膨胀之间的关系问题展开讨论分析。
本文研究分析的特点在于理论与实际相结合,定性分析与定量分析并重,通过基本理论阐述、实际数据分析、传导机制研究以及计量模型的建立等多种方法来研究中国外汇储备增长与通货膨胀关系问题。其基本思路是在阐述通货膨胀相关理论以及分析外汇储备增长情况和特点的前提下,从理论和数据上分析外汇储备与通货膨胀之间的相关关系,然后再从传导机制中中央银行的干预力度来分析二者的因果关系是否存在,最后用计量模型来证明二者的长期关系是否存在。
本文一共分为六章,其主要内容及结构如下:
第一章是相关理论与文献综述。由于通货膨胀作为本文重点研究对象之一,有必要对其相关理论进行有效的论述分析,因此本章第一部分主要是对通货膨胀理论进行综述,而该部分的内容包括通货膨胀涵义、通货膨胀衡量指标以及通货膨胀成因理论。作为本文论述的起点,相关理论的论述分析为接下来论述的展开打下了一个良好的理论基础。本章的另一个重要部分是文献综述。在简述国外的相关文献之后,笔者通过认真分析,把国内相关研究大致分为两个时间段:一是九十年代中期,二是2004年之后。前期的文献主要认为外汇储备与通货膨胀之间没有关系,后期的文献则认为二者有关系。由于两个时期的研究具有不同背景和研究工具,从而得出相反的结论。
第二章主要分析近年来我国外汇储备增长的情况与特点。关于外汇储备增长的情况,笔者主要通过历年外汇储备同比增长率图表进行时间阶段的划分,其主要划分为四个阶段:第一阶段(1978年-1994年)为外汇储备增长剧烈波动期;第二阶段(1995年-1997年)为外汇储备较快增长阶段;第三阶段(1998年-2000年)为增长速度放缓阶段;第四阶段(2001年至今)为外汇储备快速增长阶段。而近年来我国外汇储备增长呈现两大特点:2001年之后,我国外汇储备增长的速度开始加快;资本和金融项目顺差剧烈波动与经常项目保持高速增长。
第三章作为本文理论分析的重点,着重分析外汇储备快速增长的主要原因以及这些原因与通货膨胀的关系两个方面。在第一个方面,笔者主要分析了外汇储备快速增长的主要原因包括国内经济的持续飞速发展、贸易顺差和外商对华直接投资迅猛增长、人民币汇率升值压力、强制性结汇制度和长期的固定汇率制度。在第二个方面,笔者则重点分析了国内经济的持续飞速发展、贸易顺差和外商对华直接投资迅猛增长、人民币汇率升值压力与通货膨胀之间存在的理论关系与实际关系。通过对这两方面的分析,建立起了外汇储备与通货膨胀之间的关系桥梁,并得出二者之间的确从理论和实际上都存在着相关关系。
第四章主要是在第三章得出外汇储备与通货膨胀存在相关关系这一结论的基础上,进一步论述二者之间是否存在因果关系。理论上,外汇储备增加→基础货币增加→货币供给量增加→通货膨胀的传导机制是存在的,但中央银行的干预也会抑制外汇储备增长对通货膨胀的影响,因此不能简单下结论。而在这一传导机制中,中央银行可以通过货币政策工具来干预基础货币量和货币供给量,因此,中央银行是否有能力通过干预来影响基础货币量和货币供给量成为外汇储备增长是否引起通货膨胀的关键因素所在。笔者重点分析传导机制中外汇储备与基础货币、外汇储备与货币供给量的关系,以此来揭示中央银行的干预空间小,难度大,以致于无力抵消外汇储备增长对通货膨胀的影响,从而在理论和数据上证明外汇储备增长与通货膨胀之间存在因果关系,其中外汇储备增长是因,通货膨胀是果。
第五章则从实证分析的角度来论证二者之间的长期相关关系是否存在。本章采用的模型是由蒙代尔提出的描述国际储备与物价变动之间关系的模型,变量涉及CPI指数、外汇储备、真实GDP以及中央银行的国内信贷,数据选择1994年到2007年的季度数据。笔者先后对变量和模型进行平稳性检验、协整检验、误差修正模型的建立以及脉冲响应分析,从计量经济学实证分析的角度论证了外汇储备增长与通货膨胀之间存在长期协整关系,反映在经济学意义上,这种协整关系就是一种长期均衡关系。
第六章在得出外汇储备增长与通货膨胀之间存在相关关系的基础上,给出政策建议。其主要涉及方面包括:加强外汇储备的管理,提高外汇储备的使用效率;努力扩大内需,转换外资经济增长方式;加快贸易战略升级,带动产业结构调整;调整外汇管理体制,深化人民币汇率制度改革;提高中央银行宏观调控效率,加强外汇占款冲销工具的选择空间。
本文创新之处在于:
(1)在计量模型方面,以往学者在对外汇储备与通货膨胀建立模型时,理论依据并不充分,对变量的取舍显得不够严谨,而本文运用蒙代尔通过货币供求理论建立的模型来进行计量分析,这样在理论依据方面更为严谨。另外,很多文献在运用“国内信贷”指标时,混淆了金融机构国内信贷与中央银行国内信贷的涵义,从而造成计量建模的差异,本文在蒙代尔所建立的模型基础上,从模型本身的涵义出发,运用中央银行国内信贷进行计量分析。
(2)以往的文献在论述外汇储备与通货膨胀关系时,往往先入为主,直接论述外汇储备是否对通货膨胀有影响。而本文则增添了另一种逻辑思路:首先分析导致外汇储备快速增长的原因有哪些,其次再分析这些原因与通货膨胀之间的到底存在什么关系,从而得出外汇储备快速增长是否与通货膨胀存在相关关系的结论。
(3)与以前文献的另一个不同之处在于,在论述外汇储备增长到通货膨胀的传导机制时,本文更着重分析中央银行在冲销外汇占款时的调控力度与未来的调控空间。
In recent years, the foreign exchange reserves of China have rapidly grown. It expanded more than 8 times with 9 years from 139.9 billion dollars in 1996 to 1 trillion dollars in the November 2006. Then China had become the country who owned the most foreign exchange reserves of the world, and got ahead of Japan, till the February 2006. The foreign exchange reserves of China had got 1.53 trillion dollars until the December 2007. From 2001, the growth rate of the foreign exchange reserves kept more than 30% all long. The great number of foreign exchange reserves has made certain positive effect to the economic development, but at the same time, its abnormal increase has hindered the healthy operation of the economic order of China. And the independence of the central bank’s monetary policy has also met drastic challenges. In the other hand, China’s price level has been increasing recently. In particular the new inflation started from 2006, following with the great growth of the prices of farm products as raw materials and petroleum. Whether the connection between the foreign exchange reserves as the index of the balance of payments or exterior equilibrium and the inflation as interior equilibrium index exists is worthy discussing. That is why the text will research the connection.
The characters of the text research are the combination between the theories and practice, and the balance between qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The basic train of thought is: the first step is to introduce the related theories of inflation and the situation as well as the characters of the foreign exchange reserves of China; the second is to analyze the related connection between the foreign exchange reserves of China and inflation from the theories and data; the third is to research it from the transmission mechanism of monetary policy; the last step is to prove the connection of long time by making econometric models.
The text is made up of 6 chapters, and the main content is as follows:
The first chapter is the related theories and literature review. Because inflation is one of the important researching points in this text, it is necessary to introduce the related theories. They include the definition, the indexes and the cause theories of inflation. The other part of the chapter is literature review. After the simple introduction of the foreign literature, the emphasis lays on domestic ones. They are separated into two periods: one is the middle time of the 1990s, the other is the time after 2004. The former articles mainly thought the foreign exchange reserves and inflation do not have relationship. On the contrary, the latter articles believed the existence of the relationship.
The second chapter mainly analyzes the situation and characters of the growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves in recent years. The history can be separated into four periods: the time of the intense fluctuation of the growth (1978-1994); the time of more rapid growth (1995-1997); the time of slow growth (1998-2000); the time of overwhelmingly rapid growth. Recently, the growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves has two characters: the growth is speeded up after2001; the capital and financial account fluctuates intensely and the current account keeps quick growth.
The third chapter is the emphasis of the text, and analyzes that the main reasons of the growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves include the rapid development of domestic economy, the quick increase of trade surplus and foreign direct investment, the appreciating pressure of RMB, the compulsive regulation of surrender of foreign exchange and the long-term fixed foreign exchange rate system. In the other hand, the text primarily analyzes the theoretical and realistic relationship between these reasons and inflation. Through the analysis, the reasons have made a bridge between inflation and the growth of foreign exchange reserves.
The fourth chapter makes a further discussion on the causality between the two things. The transmission mechanism of“the growth of foreign exchange reserves→the growth of base money→the growth of monetary supply→inflation”exists theoretically, but the interference of central bank also kills the influence from the growth of foreign exchange reserves. Thereby, it is not simple to make a conclusion. The chapter primarily analyzes the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and base money, as well as the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and monetary supply, so as to recover that the room of central bank’s interference is small, and it is also difficult. Then the influence from the growth of foreign exchange reserves to inflation is effective. It concludes that the foreign exchange reserves are the reason, and the inflation is the result.
The fifth chapter discusses the long-term relationship between the two things from the angle of empirical analysis. These methods include ADF tests, co-integration tests, ECM establishment and impulse response analysis. The conclusion is that the long-term co-integration relationship exists.
The sixth chapter mainly gives some policy suggestions.
The Innovation of this text:
(1) Before the text, many scholars set the models without full theoretical evidence, or chose the variables without enough preciseness. So the text uses the monetary supply model set by Robert Mundell to do econometric analysis. Additionally, many articles that used the variable of“domestic credit”made a mess between the financial institutes’and the central bank’s, but the text believes that the variable should be the central bank’s domestic credit on the basis of Mundell’s model.
(2) The previous articles had the same logical way: the direct discussion of the influence from foreign exchange reserves to inflation. In contrast, the text uses another logical way: the first is to analyze what are the reasons that lead to the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves, the second is to discuss the connection between these reasons and inflation, so as to conclude the existence of the related relationship between the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves and inflation.
(3) Another different point from previous articles is that the text more primarily analyzes the room and strength of the central bank’s interference to the mirror image of foreign exchange reserve, when it discusses the transmission mechanism from the growth of the foreign exchange reserve to inflation.
本文研究分析的特点在于理论与实际相结合,定性分析与定量分析并重,通过基本理论阐述、实际数据分析、传导机制研究以及计量模型的建立等多种方法来研究中国外汇储备增长与通货膨胀关系问题。其基本思路是在阐述通货膨胀相关理论以及分析外汇储备增长情况和特点的前提下,从理论和数据上分析外汇储备与通货膨胀之间的相关关系,然后再从传导机制中中央银行的干预力度来分析二者的因果关系是否存在,最后用计量模型来证明二者的长期关系是否存在。
本文一共分为六章,其主要内容及结构如下:
第一章是相关理论与文献综述。由于通货膨胀作为本文重点研究对象之一,有必要对其相关理论进行有效的论述分析,因此本章第一部分主要是对通货膨胀理论进行综述,而该部分的内容包括通货膨胀涵义、通货膨胀衡量指标以及通货膨胀成因理论。作为本文论述的起点,相关理论的论述分析为接下来论述的展开打下了一个良好的理论基础。本章的另一个重要部分是文献综述。在简述国外的相关文献之后,笔者通过认真分析,把国内相关研究大致分为两个时间段:一是九十年代中期,二是2004年之后。前期的文献主要认为外汇储备与通货膨胀之间没有关系,后期的文献则认为二者有关系。由于两个时期的研究具有不同背景和研究工具,从而得出相反的结论。
第二章主要分析近年来我国外汇储备增长的情况与特点。关于外汇储备增长的情况,笔者主要通过历年外汇储备同比增长率图表进行时间阶段的划分,其主要划分为四个阶段:第一阶段(1978年-1994年)为外汇储备增长剧烈波动期;第二阶段(1995年-1997年)为外汇储备较快增长阶段;第三阶段(1998年-2000年)为增长速度放缓阶段;第四阶段(2001年至今)为外汇储备快速增长阶段。而近年来我国外汇储备增长呈现两大特点:2001年之后,我国外汇储备增长的速度开始加快;资本和金融项目顺差剧烈波动与经常项目保持高速增长。
第三章作为本文理论分析的重点,着重分析外汇储备快速增长的主要原因以及这些原因与通货膨胀的关系两个方面。在第一个方面,笔者主要分析了外汇储备快速增长的主要原因包括国内经济的持续飞速发展、贸易顺差和外商对华直接投资迅猛增长、人民币汇率升值压力、强制性结汇制度和长期的固定汇率制度。在第二个方面,笔者则重点分析了国内经济的持续飞速发展、贸易顺差和外商对华直接投资迅猛增长、人民币汇率升值压力与通货膨胀之间存在的理论关系与实际关系。通过对这两方面的分析,建立起了外汇储备与通货膨胀之间的关系桥梁,并得出二者之间的确从理论和实际上都存在着相关关系。
第四章主要是在第三章得出外汇储备与通货膨胀存在相关关系这一结论的基础上,进一步论述二者之间是否存在因果关系。理论上,外汇储备增加→基础货币增加→货币供给量增加→通货膨胀的传导机制是存在的,但中央银行的干预也会抑制外汇储备增长对通货膨胀的影响,因此不能简单下结论。而在这一传导机制中,中央银行可以通过货币政策工具来干预基础货币量和货币供给量,因此,中央银行是否有能力通过干预来影响基础货币量和货币供给量成为外汇储备增长是否引起通货膨胀的关键因素所在。笔者重点分析传导机制中外汇储备与基础货币、外汇储备与货币供给量的关系,以此来揭示中央银行的干预空间小,难度大,以致于无力抵消外汇储备增长对通货膨胀的影响,从而在理论和数据上证明外汇储备增长与通货膨胀之间存在因果关系,其中外汇储备增长是因,通货膨胀是果。
第五章则从实证分析的角度来论证二者之间的长期相关关系是否存在。本章采用的模型是由蒙代尔提出的描述国际储备与物价变动之间关系的模型,变量涉及CPI指数、外汇储备、真实GDP以及中央银行的国内信贷,数据选择1994年到2007年的季度数据。笔者先后对变量和模型进行平稳性检验、协整检验、误差修正模型的建立以及脉冲响应分析,从计量经济学实证分析的角度论证了外汇储备增长与通货膨胀之间存在长期协整关系,反映在经济学意义上,这种协整关系就是一种长期均衡关系。
第六章在得出外汇储备增长与通货膨胀之间存在相关关系的基础上,给出政策建议。其主要涉及方面包括:加强外汇储备的管理,提高外汇储备的使用效率;努力扩大内需,转换外资经济增长方式;加快贸易战略升级,带动产业结构调整;调整外汇管理体制,深化人民币汇率制度改革;提高中央银行宏观调控效率,加强外汇占款冲销工具的选择空间。
本文创新之处在于:
(1)在计量模型方面,以往学者在对外汇储备与通货膨胀建立模型时,理论依据并不充分,对变量的取舍显得不够严谨,而本文运用蒙代尔通过货币供求理论建立的模型来进行计量分析,这样在理论依据方面更为严谨。另外,很多文献在运用“国内信贷”指标时,混淆了金融机构国内信贷与中央银行国内信贷的涵义,从而造成计量建模的差异,本文在蒙代尔所建立的模型基础上,从模型本身的涵义出发,运用中央银行国内信贷进行计量分析。
(2)以往的文献在论述外汇储备与通货膨胀关系时,往往先入为主,直接论述外汇储备是否对通货膨胀有影响。而本文则增添了另一种逻辑思路:首先分析导致外汇储备快速增长的原因有哪些,其次再分析这些原因与通货膨胀之间的到底存在什么关系,从而得出外汇储备快速增长是否与通货膨胀存在相关关系的结论。
(3)与以前文献的另一个不同之处在于,在论述外汇储备增长到通货膨胀的传导机制时,本文更着重分析中央银行在冲销外汇占款时的调控力度与未来的调控空间。
In recent years, the foreign exchange reserves of China have rapidly grown. It expanded more than 8 times with 9 years from 139.9 billion dollars in 1996 to 1 trillion dollars in the November 2006. Then China had become the country who owned the most foreign exchange reserves of the world, and got ahead of Japan, till the February 2006. The foreign exchange reserves of China had got 1.53 trillion dollars until the December 2007. From 2001, the growth rate of the foreign exchange reserves kept more than 30% all long. The great number of foreign exchange reserves has made certain positive effect to the economic development, but at the same time, its abnormal increase has hindered the healthy operation of the economic order of China. And the independence of the central bank’s monetary policy has also met drastic challenges. In the other hand, China’s price level has been increasing recently. In particular the new inflation started from 2006, following with the great growth of the prices of farm products as raw materials and petroleum. Whether the connection between the foreign exchange reserves as the index of the balance of payments or exterior equilibrium and the inflation as interior equilibrium index exists is worthy discussing. That is why the text will research the connection.
The characters of the text research are the combination between the theories and practice, and the balance between qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The basic train of thought is: the first step is to introduce the related theories of inflation and the situation as well as the characters of the foreign exchange reserves of China; the second is to analyze the related connection between the foreign exchange reserves of China and inflation from the theories and data; the third is to research it from the transmission mechanism of monetary policy; the last step is to prove the connection of long time by making econometric models.
The text is made up of 6 chapters, and the main content is as follows:
The first chapter is the related theories and literature review. Because inflation is one of the important researching points in this text, it is necessary to introduce the related theories. They include the definition, the indexes and the cause theories of inflation. The other part of the chapter is literature review. After the simple introduction of the foreign literature, the emphasis lays on domestic ones. They are separated into two periods: one is the middle time of the 1990s, the other is the time after 2004. The former articles mainly thought the foreign exchange reserves and inflation do not have relationship. On the contrary, the latter articles believed the existence of the relationship.
The second chapter mainly analyzes the situation and characters of the growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves in recent years. The history can be separated into four periods: the time of the intense fluctuation of the growth (1978-1994); the time of more rapid growth (1995-1997); the time of slow growth (1998-2000); the time of overwhelmingly rapid growth. Recently, the growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves has two characters: the growth is speeded up after2001; the capital and financial account fluctuates intensely and the current account keeps quick growth.
The third chapter is the emphasis of the text, and analyzes that the main reasons of the growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves include the rapid development of domestic economy, the quick increase of trade surplus and foreign direct investment, the appreciating pressure of RMB, the compulsive regulation of surrender of foreign exchange and the long-term fixed foreign exchange rate system. In the other hand, the text primarily analyzes the theoretical and realistic relationship between these reasons and inflation. Through the analysis, the reasons have made a bridge between inflation and the growth of foreign exchange reserves.
The fourth chapter makes a further discussion on the causality between the two things. The transmission mechanism of“the growth of foreign exchange reserves→the growth of base money→the growth of monetary supply→inflation”exists theoretically, but the interference of central bank also kills the influence from the growth of foreign exchange reserves. Thereby, it is not simple to make a conclusion. The chapter primarily analyzes the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and base money, as well as the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and monetary supply, so as to recover that the room of central bank’s interference is small, and it is also difficult. Then the influence from the growth of foreign exchange reserves to inflation is effective. It concludes that the foreign exchange reserves are the reason, and the inflation is the result.
The fifth chapter discusses the long-term relationship between the two things from the angle of empirical analysis. These methods include ADF tests, co-integration tests, ECM establishment and impulse response analysis. The conclusion is that the long-term co-integration relationship exists.
The sixth chapter mainly gives some policy suggestions.
The Innovation of this text:
(1) Before the text, many scholars set the models without full theoretical evidence, or chose the variables without enough preciseness. So the text uses the monetary supply model set by Robert Mundell to do econometric analysis. Additionally, many articles that used the variable of“domestic credit”made a mess between the financial institutes’and the central bank’s, but the text believes that the variable should be the central bank’s domestic credit on the basis of Mundell’s model.
(2) The previous articles had the same logical way: the direct discussion of the influence from foreign exchange reserves to inflation. In contrast, the text uses another logical way: the first is to analyze what are the reasons that lead to the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves, the second is to discuss the connection between these reasons and inflation, so as to conclude the existence of the related relationship between the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves and inflation.
(3) Another different point from previous articles is that the text more primarily analyzes the room and strength of the central bank’s interference to the mirror image of foreign exchange reserve, when it discusses the transmission mechanism from the growth of the foreign exchange reserve to inflation.
引文
[1]高鸿业:《西方经济学(宏观部分)》[M],北京,中国人民大学出版社,2004。
[2]殷孟波:《货币金融学》[M],北京,中国金融出版社,2004年。
[3]曾康霖:《外汇储备与通货膨胀》,《金融研究》[J],1995年第9期。
[4]戴根有:《我国的外汇储备与通货膨胀》,《战略与管理》[J],1995年第5期。
[5]佟家栋:《开放经济条件下中国通货膨胀原因的探讨》,《经济研究》[J],1996年第1期。
[6]刘荣茂、黎开颜:《我国外汇储备对通货膨胀影响的实证分析》,《中[6]国农业大学学报(社会科学版)》[J],2005年第1期。
[7]王珍:《我国外汇储备增长与物价波动的理论分析与实证分析》,《统计研究》[J],2006年第7期。
[8]曹小艳:《外汇储备增长的通货膨胀效应分析》,《统计教育》[J],2005年第7期。
[9]王传纶、阎先东:《外汇储备与通货膨胀:中央银行的对冲可行性分析》,《财贸经济》[J],1998年第3期。
[10]封建强、袁林:《我国外汇储备增长与物价波动研究》,《经济科学》[J],2000年第6期。
[11]石柱鲜,黄红梅,石庆华:《关于中国潜在GDP与景气波动、通货膨胀的经济研究》,《世界经济》[J],2004年第8期。
[12]刘华,卢孔标:《进出口贸易与通货膨胀的国际传导——基于中国数据的实证检验》,《金融与经济》[J],2007年第10期。
[13]孙婉洁,臧旭恒:《试析外资流入对我国通货膨胀的影响》,《经济研究》[J],1995年第9期。
[14]王志鹏:《外商直接投资“挤入”还是“挤出”了国内投资》,《当代财经》[J],1996年第8期。
[15]王宗鹏,谢婷:《FDI规模与通货膨胀的理论和经验》,《商场现代化》[J],2006年2期。
[16]张明玉:《中国对外开放、通货膨胀与经济增长相关关系的模型检测》,《经济科学》[J],1998年第3期。
[17]黄新飞,舒元:《基于VAR模型的FDI与中国通货膨胀的经验分析》,《世界经济》[J],2007年第10期。
[18]崔光灿:《我国资产价格影响通货膨胀研究》,《特区经济》[J],2005年第3期。
[19]李艾婧:《我国资本项目开放的现状与前景展望》,《科技经济市场》[J],2006年第11期。
[20]余珊萍,钟伟:《论通货膨胀和国际收支调节》,《国际经贸探索》[J],1997年第6期。
[21]吕剑:《人民币汇率变动对国内物价传递效应的实证分析》,《国际金融研究》[J],2007年第8期。
[22]卜永祥:《人民币汇率变动对国内物价水平的影响》,《金融研究》[J],2001年第3期。
[23]姜波克:《国际金融学》[M],北京,高等教育出版社,1999年。
[24]管礼平:《我国货币需求与供给的实证研究》,[硕士学位论文],长沙,中南大学,2003:38-39。
[25]武剑:《货币冲销的理论分析与政策选择》,《管理世界》[J],2005年第9期。
[26]邵学言,郝雁:《对中国外汇储备与物价指数之间的数量关系研究》,《经济学动态》[J],2004年第06期。
[27]高铁梅,《计量经济分析方法与建模》,北京,清华大学出版社,2006年。
[28]张晓峒:《计量经济分析》,北京,经济科学出版社,2000年。
[29]李南成:《中国货币政策传导的数量研究》,[博士学位论文],成都,西南财经大学2004:82-84。
[30]卢向前,戴国强:《人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响:1994-2003》,《经济研究》[J],2005年第5期。
[31] Robert H.Heller. International Reserves and World-wide Inflation. IMF Staff Papers, 1976, vol.23:61～87
[32] Mohsin S.Khan. Inflation and International Reserves: A Time Series Analysis. IMF Staff Papers, 1979, Vol.26:699～724
[33] Mousen Bahmani-Oskooee, Jannardhanan Alse. Budget Deficits and the Value of the Dollar: An Application Of Cointegration and Error-Correction. Journal of Macroeconomics, 1993, Vol.15:661～667
[34] Mousen Bahmani-Oskooee, Jannardhanan Alse. Error-Correction Models and Cointegration: International Reserves and World Inflation. Economic Notes, 1997, vol.26:35～48
[35] Mei-Yin Lin, Jue-Shyan Wang. Foreign Exchange Reserves and Inflation: an Empirical Study of Five East Asian Economies, Finance Conference, Aletheia University, 2005. http://pf.nccu.edu.tw/faculty/wang/profile.htm
[36] Gamber, E. and J. Hung. Has the rise in globalization reduced U.S. inflation in the 1990s? Economic Inquiry, 2001, vol.39(1):58-73.
[37] Reinhart Carmen, Calvo Guillermo, Leiderman Leonardo.“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: the Role of External Factors”. IMF Staff Papers, 1993, vol.40(1):108-151.
[38]外汇管理局网站:http://www.safe.gov.cn
[39]国家统计局网站:http://www.stats.gov.cn
[40] EIU CountryData: http://eiu.bvdep.com
[41]中经网:http://db.cei.gov.cn
[42]《中国金融年鉴》1994年-2007年
[43]人民银行网站:http://www.pbc.gov.cn
1高鸿业,西方经济学(宏观部分),中国人民大学出版社,2004,第3版
1殷孟波,货币金融学,[M]中国金融出版社,北京,2004年,第一版,368-379
1孙婉洁,臧旭恒,试析外资流入对我国通货膨胀的影响,经济研究,1995年第9期
1李艾婧,我国资本项目开放的现状与前景展望,科技经济市场,2006(11)
2余珊萍,钟伟,论通货膨胀和国际收支调节,国际经贸探索,1997(6)
1姜波克,国际金融学,高等教育出版社,1999年,第1版
2管礼平,我国货币需求与供给的实证研究,硕士学位论文,中南大学,2003:38-39
①邵学言,郝雁《对中国外汇储备与物价指数之间的数量关系研究》经济学动态,2004(06):44-46
①高铁梅,《计量经济分析方法与建模》清华大学出版社,2006年
①高铁梅,《计量经济分析方法与建模》清华大学出版社,2006年
①张晓峒,计量经济分析,第一版,北京:经济科学出版社。2000年
①李南成.中国货币政策传导的数量研究。[博士学位论文]。成都,西南财经大学2004.82-84
[2]殷孟波:《货币金融学》[M],北京,中国金融出版社,2004年。
[3]曾康霖:《外汇储备与通货膨胀》,《金融研究》[J],1995年第9期。
[4]戴根有:《我国的外汇储备与通货膨胀》,《战略与管理》[J],1995年第5期。
[5]佟家栋:《开放经济条件下中国通货膨胀原因的探讨》,《经济研究》[J],1996年第1期。
[6]刘荣茂、黎开颜:《我国外汇储备对通货膨胀影响的实证分析》,《中[6]国农业大学学报(社会科学版)》[J],2005年第1期。
[7]王珍:《我国外汇储备增长与物价波动的理论分析与实证分析》,《统计研究》[J],2006年第7期。
[8]曹小艳:《外汇储备增长的通货膨胀效应分析》,《统计教育》[J],2005年第7期。
[9]王传纶、阎先东:《外汇储备与通货膨胀:中央银行的对冲可行性分析》,《财贸经济》[J],1998年第3期。
[10]封建强、袁林:《我国外汇储备增长与物价波动研究》,《经济科学》[J],2000年第6期。
[11]石柱鲜,黄红梅,石庆华:《关于中国潜在GDP与景气波动、通货膨胀的经济研究》,《世界经济》[J],2004年第8期。
[12]刘华,卢孔标:《进出口贸易与通货膨胀的国际传导——基于中国数据的实证检验》,《金融与经济》[J],2007年第10期。
[13]孙婉洁,臧旭恒:《试析外资流入对我国通货膨胀的影响》,《经济研究》[J],1995年第9期。
[14]王志鹏:《外商直接投资“挤入”还是“挤出”了国内投资》,《当代财经》[J],1996年第8期。
[15]王宗鹏,谢婷:《FDI规模与通货膨胀的理论和经验》,《商场现代化》[J],2006年2期。
[16]张明玉:《中国对外开放、通货膨胀与经济增长相关关系的模型检测》,《经济科学》[J],1998年第3期。
[17]黄新飞,舒元:《基于VAR模型的FDI与中国通货膨胀的经验分析》,《世界经济》[J],2007年第10期。
[18]崔光灿:《我国资产价格影响通货膨胀研究》,《特区经济》[J],2005年第3期。
[19]李艾婧:《我国资本项目开放的现状与前景展望》,《科技经济市场》[J],2006年第11期。
[20]余珊萍,钟伟:《论通货膨胀和国际收支调节》,《国际经贸探索》[J],1997年第6期。
[21]吕剑:《人民币汇率变动对国内物价传递效应的实证分析》,《国际金融研究》[J],2007年第8期。
[22]卜永祥:《人民币汇率变动对国内物价水平的影响》,《金融研究》[J],2001年第3期。
[23]姜波克:《国际金融学》[M],北京,高等教育出版社,1999年。
[24]管礼平:《我国货币需求与供给的实证研究》,[硕士学位论文],长沙,中南大学,2003:38-39。
[25]武剑:《货币冲销的理论分析与政策选择》,《管理世界》[J],2005年第9期。
[26]邵学言,郝雁:《对中国外汇储备与物价指数之间的数量关系研究》,《经济学动态》[J],2004年第06期。
[27]高铁梅,《计量经济分析方法与建模》,北京,清华大学出版社,2006年。
[28]张晓峒:《计量经济分析》,北京,经济科学出版社,2000年。
[29]李南成:《中国货币政策传导的数量研究》,[博士学位论文],成都,西南财经大学2004:82-84。
[30]卢向前,戴国强:《人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响:1994-2003》,《经济研究》[J],2005年第5期。
[31] Robert H.Heller. International Reserves and World-wide Inflation. IMF Staff Papers, 1976, vol.23:61～87
[32] Mohsin S.Khan. Inflation and International Reserves: A Time Series Analysis. IMF Staff Papers, 1979, Vol.26:699～724
[33] Mousen Bahmani-Oskooee, Jannardhanan Alse. Budget Deficits and the Value of the Dollar: An Application Of Cointegration and Error-Correction. Journal of Macroeconomics, 1993, Vol.15:661～667
[34] Mousen Bahmani-Oskooee, Jannardhanan Alse. Error-Correction Models and Cointegration: International Reserves and World Inflation. Economic Notes, 1997, vol.26:35～48
[35] Mei-Yin Lin, Jue-Shyan Wang. Foreign Exchange Reserves and Inflation: an Empirical Study of Five East Asian Economies, Finance Conference, Aletheia University, 2005. http://pf.nccu.edu.tw/faculty/wang/profile.htm
[36] Gamber, E. and J. Hung. Has the rise in globalization reduced U.S. inflation in the 1990s? Economic Inquiry, 2001, vol.39(1):58-73.
[37] Reinhart Carmen, Calvo Guillermo, Leiderman Leonardo.“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: the Role of External Factors”. IMF Staff Papers, 1993, vol.40(1):108-151.
[38]外汇管理局网站:http://www.safe.gov.cn
[39]国家统计局网站:http://www.stats.gov.cn
[40] EIU CountryData: http://eiu.bvdep.com
[41]中经网:http://db.cei.gov.cn
[42]《中国金融年鉴》1994年-2007年
[43]人民银行网站:http://www.pbc.gov.cn
1高鸿业,西方经济学(宏观部分),中国人民大学出版社,2004,第3版
1殷孟波,货币金融学,[M]中国金融出版社,北京,2004年,第一版,368-379
1孙婉洁,臧旭恒,试析外资流入对我国通货膨胀的影响,经济研究,1995年第9期
1李艾婧,我国资本项目开放的现状与前景展望,科技经济市场,2006(11)
2余珊萍,钟伟,论通货膨胀和国际收支调节,国际经贸探索,1997(6)
1姜波克,国际金融学,高等教育出版社,1999年,第1版
2管礼平,我国货币需求与供给的实证研究,硕士学位论文,中南大学,2003:38-39
①邵学言,郝雁《对中国外汇储备与物价指数之间的数量关系研究》经济学动态,2004(06):44-46
①高铁梅,《计量经济分析方法与建模》清华大学出版社,2006年
①高铁梅,《计量经济分析方法与建模》清华大学出版社,2006年
①张晓峒,计量经济分析,第一版,北京:经济科学出版社。2000年
①李南成.中国货币政策传导的数量研究。[博士学位论文]。成都,西南财经大学2004.82-84